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shockster
02 Nov 16 12:09
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Date Joined: 26 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 2,625 | Blogger: shockster's blog
33 Entries.

Ar Mad (FR), Art Mauresque (FR), Avant Tout (FR), Blaklion (GB), Bristol de Mai (FR) Camping Ground (FR), Champagne West (IRE), Coneygree (GB), Cue Card (GB), Dodging Bullets (GB), Don Poli (IRE), Douvan (FR), God's Own (IRE), Irish Cavalier (IRE), Le Mercurey (FR), Menorah (IRE), Monksland (IRE), More of That (IRE), Outlander (IRE), Road To Riches (IRE), Roi des Francs (FR), Sadler's Risk (IRE), Saphir du Rheu (FR), Silviniaco Conti (FR), Simonsig (GB), Sub Lieutenant (IRE), Tea For Two (GB), Thistlecrack (GB), Un Temps Pour Tout (IRE), Valseur Lido (FR), Vautour (FR), Vibrato Valtat (FR), Vroum Vroum Mag (FR)

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By:
impossible123
When: 02 Nov 16 15:26
It is intriguing that Douvan and Vroum Vroum Mag from the WPM/RR/RW combination entered along with Vautour (no surprise there), and Avant Tout; Thistlecrack is the other 'promising' new recruit to chasing entered too.
By:
Paterson92
When: 05 Nov 16 22:39
Looking at the market for this earlier today actually ....

Vautour 3/1 - Ricci said he's likely to start his campaign in Ireland this year but King George on the radar once again.
Cue Card 6/1 - Last years winner who made a below par return to action last weekend. Wouldn't be rushing to take the 6/1 until I saw him next time out in his prep for this race.
Douvan 6/1 - Won't be running in this. I don't doubt for a minute Mullins/Ricci want to up him in trip, hence dropping Vautour back to 2m at Punchestown last season to see if he was good enough for a Champion Chase. But the fact that went pear shaped, they have Djakadam, Vautour, Killultagh Vic, Black Hercules, Shaneshill and potentially Vroum Vroum Mag to split between the Gold Cup and Ryanair, Mullins/Ricci have never won a Champion Chase and looks to have the 2 mile chase division at his mercy.
Coneygree 8/1 - Couldn't take that price with stolen money until I saw him back on the track.
Thistlecrack 8/1 - Cue Card will go here and Thistlecrack will follow the novice route this season I would imagine.
Djakadam 12/1 - Would imagine he will be kept in Ireland at least until the New Year. Unless Vautour doesn't make it here.
Valseur Lido 16/1 - Very impressive today. Not sure what the plan is with him for the rest of the season but if he turns up here, he goes off single figures.
20/1+ include More Of That, Killultagh Vic, Vroum Vroum Mag, O'Faolains Boy, Ar Mad, Bristol De Mai, Road To Riches etc

The only one that stuck out at a huge price of 33/1 was Silviniaco Conti. Especially after today's return to action in Ireland. I do believe his best days are beyond him but if he were mine, the King George and Aintree Bowl would be the main targets for the season.

What I'm really trying to say is .... by how far does Vautour win this year???
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 05 Nov 16 23:00
disagree with douvan think he go for the 2m 4f race at ascot what vatour beat ptit zig in last year and all goes well comes here, cant see them wanting to take on SS in the tingle creek.

just cant have vatour, campaigned odd last year, looks the type to fall out love with the game to me, cant have him staying 3 miles anyhow waiste of time KG
By:
Paterson92
When: 05 Nov 16 23:40
Would love to see Douvan upped in trip. And I do believe it will happen ... just not this season! They'd have to be mad not to have a crack at the Champion Chase with him in March. That's how I see it anyway. I don't think we'll see Douvan in Britain until March.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Nov 16 00:29
It looks like no Vroum Vroum Mag (VVM) either using the Exchange betting as guide - he is 99/1 - despite WPM only has Douvan, Vautour, VVM and Avant Tout to choose from.
By:
sixtwosix
When: 06 Nov 16 16:08
Vautour and Avant Tout gone on one day , sad news .
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Nov 16 16:25
Oh no, that is truly an awful end to the life of a brilliant chaser. I understand it is not quite in the same vein as that befell Freddy Tylicki but nonetheless it is still truly tragic.

RIP Vautour!
By:
Paterson92
When: 06 Nov 16 19:55
Such a cruel cruel game at times. 3/3 at Cheltenham Festival and at the very least had a King George in him. Devastated isn't the word.
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Nov 16 20:22
Can anyone really believe Douvan will be rerouted here to assume the mantle of the ill-fated Vautour instead of prepping for the Champion Chase in the Tingle Creek or a 2m Grade 1 race in Ireland despite what RR said in his interview with Chapman on ATR just recently? Personally, I do not think it will happen this year but next year, a strong probability.
By:
stan246
When: 10 Nov 16 20:47
What does he run in in Ireland? Dial a bet in Leop?
By:
impossible123
When: 10 Nov 16 21:10
Probably Dial-A-Bet if a journey across the water is not on the agenda prior to Cheltenham ie a similar route to Moscow Flyer and/or Sizing Europe, I think. What is the point of stepping up in distance with Douvan for this race and then run in the Champion Chase no matter what after? It just does not make sense, however, in 2018 it is probable especially if Douvan wins the 2017 Champion Chase and Vroum Vroum Mag proves inadequate for this year's King George and /or Gold Cup.

Djakadam is just not good enough to win a Gold Cup having had two consecutive attempts at it already but could run in the next Ryanair in the absence of Vautour. Also, WPM does not have a more suitable contender for the Ryanair than Djakadam, I believe.
By:
shockster
When: 11 Nov 16 11:06
If and I say if Douvan were to run and win the King George, then I'm sure they'd go for the Gold Cup and not drop back in distance.  Mullins would still have UDS for the Champion Chase and either VVM or Djackadam for the Ryanair.

However, I don't think that will happen and expect Douvan to go down a typical 2m route.
By:
impossible123
When: 11 Nov 16 13:29
I cannot see Douvan going for the King George and then the Champion Chase at the Festival either which only leaves VVM from the WPM/RR/RW connections; Djakadam is just not good enough for this race and would most likely be campaigned exclusively in Ireland until Cheltenham, I'd think.
By:
Meat Loaf
When: 20 Nov 16 08:30
Likely line up:
- Cue Card
- Coneygree
- Conti
- Valseur Lido
- Tea for Two
- Vroum Vroum Mag

But the one I fancy at a big price providing it runs well this coming weekend is Bristol de Mai. Looks a proper 3m chase in the making to me. Could mix it with these in soft ground.
By:
impossible123
When: 20 Nov 16 09:57
If any proof was needed that Cue Card had not regressed because of age the Betfair Chase was clear indication of that - the pace and pattern of the race suited Cue Card enormously. I cannot see a different winner should the same participants do battle again in the King George, and with 5/2 available (and unless Douvan turns up) there is still value to be had, I think.
By:
shockster
When: 20 Nov 16 10:28
I agree Impossible 5/2 is very good for Cue Card and it's possible Coneygree may go to the Lexus making the price even stronger.  I actually think Coneygree should go to Ireland as am sure the track will suit better than Kempton, as well as not having to go against Cue Card until The Gold Cup. There's  no million pound bonus for the Bradstocks to worry about either to tempt them to go to Kempton.  Don't fancy anything in Ireland to beat Coneygree with Don Cossack injured and all things being equal Djakadam is only slim danger. Makes complete sense.
By:
stevo1
When: 20 Nov 16 11:03
Agree Cue Card at 5/2 decent bet,if showing on day could be 5/4?
By:
impossible123
When: 20 Nov 16 11:39
Cue Card has demonstrated he has the form to beat Coneygree and Djakadam, and I also doubt very much the connections of Coneygree fancying another meeting (and probable drubbing) by Cue Card in the King George prior to another to the Gold Cup. I doubt if Valsuer Lido (connections are staunch supporters of Irish Racing), VVM (withdrawn today/possibly behind schedule) and Djakadam are unlikely King George runners with the Lexus being closer to home. But the fly in the ointment is Douvan but his stamina has to be taken on trust even if he surprises and turns up.

Hence, the King George field could cut up badly.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 20 Nov 16 12:22
Valseur Lido ran in the King George last year - badly - could only see them really being tempted again in the unlikely event of genuine good ground.His win over Conti at Down Royal arguably does n't look as good now after yesterday.

Djakadam is n't even entered for the King George.
By:
impossible123
When: 20 Nov 16 12:57
ReaselHeath,

You can tell I'm not fully with it over the sticks (yet), getting there.

If I remember correctly Valseur Lido would probably have won the Irish Gold Cup whilst in a clear lead but for falling at the last fence; he could be King George bound again this year but with his emphatic win in the JRwine Chase connections would be looking at the Cheltenham Gold Cup with 'I plod on' having regressed rather than the Ryanair again, I'd think.
By:
The Dragon
When: 20 Nov 16 15:58
taken the 5/2 on ccCool
By:
Autocue
When: 20 Nov 16 15:58
I'll start this by saying I don't think Coneygree is an ante-post betting proposition for the King George by any means. He's fragile, his main target will be the Gold Cup and connections have already brought the Lexus into the equation. However, to say he couldn't beat Cue Card in the race is madness in my opinion. Cue Card was beaten by Irish Cavalier first time out then humped that horse senseless yesterday. Coneygree is also entitled to come on for his first run in much more trying circumstances than Cue Card faced at Wetherby.
By:
opatcho
When: 20 Nov 16 16:24

Nov 20, 2016 -- 7:57AM, impossible123 wrote:


ReaselHeath,You can tell I'm not fully with it over the sticks (yet), getting there. If I remember correctly Valseur Lido would probably have won the Irish Gold Cup whilst in a clear lead but for falling at the last fence; he could be King George bound again this year but with his emphatic win in the JRwine Chase connections would be looking at the Cheltenham Gold Cup with 'I plod on' having regressed rather than the Ryanair again, I'd think.


Horse no longer playing second best in amongst the Mullis camp, forced to run in Ryanair last year after showing he had 3 mile stamina in the Irish Gold Cup.
This horse WILL run in the Gold Cup, I've backed him in from 25/1 and he will be the best of the Irish this year over that trip

I dont think a flat quick track like kempton suits Valseur Lido, and would be slightly surprised if they take on Cue Card in the King George - particularly after CC's performance this weekend. I've mentioned this already, I'd like to see VL run in the Lexus - he'd be fav and will win IMO. I'm waiting for the Lexus/GC specials to pop up.

Cue Card is a special horse... he's proven himself, he would have won the GC last year if he didnt come down - I'm confident of that. He has a great chance of taking the GC, just slightly pee'd off that I didnt take the 33/1 treble at the time. Cue Card will win the KG with ease, and I still think there is plenty of juice in the price now.

By:
impossible123
When: 21 Nov 16 21:43
I think WPM had wanted Valseur Lido to run in the Gold Cup but Gigginstown insisted the Ryanair for him instead because they already had Don Cossack in there. But the late rerouting of Valtour to the Ryanair gatecrashed their party in the end.

I tried to get a small bet on CC for this race with a bookie (*loser*) but only 1/2 was accepted. I refused, and that was only my 3rd bet with the outfit. A bookie refuses to accommodate a £20 bet on a 2/1 shot? What an unsatisfactory situation and how can they justify that?
By:
Autocue
When: 22 Nov 16 11:27
Well of course it's very poor but you ought to name and shame them and go somewhere else. If I can only get half on I just go to another shop to put the rest on. Plenty of the feckers.
By:
The Dragon
When: 22 Nov 16 16:46
which bookies was it imp - pretty damb sure
By:
The Dragon
When: 22 Nov 16 16:48
7/4 the general price for cc now
By:
impossible123
When: 22 Nov 16 17:14
The Dragon,

The opposite of 'loser'; they would only take £12.16 on a 2/1 shot - how pathetic!

Unless Douvan turns up I reckon CC will probably start a shade either side of odds against.
By:
The Dragon
When: 22 Nov 16 20:49
never backed with then imp, glad I havent

yes 5/2 looking good now
By:
Autocue
When: 23 Nov 16 08:23
I get it. You guys, obsesses with Cue Card's odds, are ramping it to lay around evens. The ante-post discussions used to be better than that. Nowadays the betfair forum is a lot of bollox. I'm out.
By:
impossible123
When: 23 Nov 16 12:42
Who says about 'laying' CC? CC annihilated his field in the Betfair Chase and the runner-up then is 5/1 (2nd fav) to exact revenge. Hence, CC at 5/2 is clearly value unless Douvan turns up, even then there must be some doubts about Douvan staying the 3m distance. Also, there is not much to be gained from a price of 5/2 unless one has big money on it. may I suggest you try getting big money at 5/2 with online bookies? Near impossible or id verification, post result.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 23 Nov 16 16:01
Bye.
By:
twonky
When: 23 Nov 16 18:46
Had an ew punt on Gods Own at 33s.

Was entered for the betfair at Haydock, but considering the ground andn going left handed, wisely went to ascot. Ran a fine race and was bang there till 2 out where the weight difference told.

Take the first 3 in the betting, Cue Card wants further, Coneygree still has a lot to prove..,tight course will not suit and Douvan, despite last years race is not proven,. Thistle crack...eeer no, not on a tight course, then the race is wide open
By:
jjoin
When: 23 Nov 16 18:52
Cue card wants further lol ??
By:
twonky
When: 23 Nov 16 19:56
IMO, the older he gets yes..don't think Kempton will suit, despite last years results, the race was ran for Douvan to get thevtrip
By:
sintonian
When: 23 Nov 16 20:06
Gods Own will only run if the ground is Good according to trainer.
By:
impossible123
When: 24 Nov 16 18:12
According to Gigginstown the next preferred race for Valseur Lido is the Lexus; if Coneygree goes the Lexus route too, Cue Card will start odds-on unless Douvan turns up, and that in itself is 7/1 on its own. Thistlecrack is also very unlikely given from the same stable, preference is the Feltham and this race is the 2nd leg of a £1m bonus culminating in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham.
By:
Meat Loaf
When: 25 Nov 16 14:21
This King George is falling apart...no decent Irish raiders...Coneygree likely to go to Ireland.

11 year old Cue Card clear favourite.

33/1 for Bristol de Mai could look massive tomorrow evening.

I'm on at 90s Excited
By:
impossible123
When: 25 Nov 16 18:08
Looking like that now if no Irish runner and/or Coneygree heads for the Lexus. If so, very likely Cue Card will be odds-on on the day.
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