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2017 1000 Guineas

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Replies: 208
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 24 Jul 16 10:59
Totally agree you shouldn't lay off. If it was the plan in the first place, maybe consider it then, but I'd guess those with the big prices wish they'd had more on.
  Quite the adventure now.
I didn't see this thread till the 14-1 price, but thought, no missed the 33's, missed the 14's now.
  Good luck, she does look pretty special.
By:
A_T
When: 24 Jul 16 11:23
Very short for the guineas but everything about her says potential guineas winner -  not stopping at the end of the race, European bred, sired by a guineas winner, dame a European group winner.

Contrast this with Caravaggio who is actually shorter then Fair Eva - appears to be wishful thinking more than anything. Has it's sire ever had a notable 3yo in Europe?
By:
bosra shame
When: 24 Jul 16 14:32
5/1 is a shocking price - Special Duty was 8/1 after she had won the Cheveley Park. She is being priced up already as a Group 1 winner.
However,she is in very good hands with Mr Charlton, is all class and looks a worthy favourite at this stage.
Ante post betting is dead on the Classics these days
By:
impossible123
When: 24 Jul 16 17:07
One must not compare Found with Fair Eva and/or the former's 1000G price post France race because the former had already been beaten fairly and squarely by Roger Varian's filly who then suffered an injury, and Lucida.

Is price not dependent on potential and competition? At the moment can anyone name a filly that has been out and won so comprehensively (4l) in a Gp3 in only her 2nd run? Roly Poly and Brave Anna both just managed to win their races where the 'fav' underperformed because of ground and/or draw - they are also much more experienced. Apart from Promise To Be True - potetial yet not totally known but probably better over 8f+ - there is no other filly with greater potential than Fair Eva, I firmly believe.

Let's hope Fair Eva goes for the Lowther (6f), and looking at the entries - unless Lady Aurelia runs - she has little to fear; the 6/4 on offer could represent value - if she's declared - because she'd be a lot shorter come race day, I've little doubt; the Moyglare over 7f will suit Fair Eva even more, and the 'competition' does not look formidable either.

Like some here I'd managed to obtain a bit at 20/1 otherwise I'd seriously consider a sizeable bet even at 5/1 - my only reservation is her well-being - the rest eg not trained on, etc, are not Fair Eva specific.
By:
jamesp
When: 24 Jul 16 17:49
impossible123 • July 24, 2016 5:07 PM BST
At the moment can anyone name a filly that has been out and won so comprehensively (4l) in a Gp3 in only her 2nd run?

No, but it could well happen in the coming weeks.  I have one eye on a filly that I think might be capable of doing something similar in a couple of weeks.  Let's wait and see.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 24 Jul 16 21:30
The fillies first classic tends to be a clash between the milers who showed pace at 2 and the late maturing types llike Minding who will stay well. My guess is that Eva will prove best of the faster fillies but the big unknown is whether a staying filly, the sort that will win the May Hill, fillies mile or Marcel Boussac will come through as a major danger, chances are a few will do so.
By:
Figgis
When: 24 Jul 16 22:16
I'd read somewhere that it was supposed to be a good time but I'm just not getting that at all in comparison with the rest of the times on the straight. It looks a Listed type performance and seemed a weaker than usual event. Obviously she did it well, could be better than the bare form, etc, but for me the price looks a massive overreaction at this stage.
By:
clacton
When: 25 Jul 16 07:33
Fair Eva beat Nations Alexander by 4L at Haydock. Nations Alexander and Kilmah come out the same horse in the Cherry Hinton.
So Fair Eva should best Kilmah 4L at Ascot. Thats exactly what happened.
Very simple way of looking at it but shows consistency between the fillies. It joins the form lines together.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 25 Jul 16 08:44
I was really taken with Godolphins Easy Victory at the July meeting and the 2nd and 5th have both come out and won since to suggest it's decent form.
Bin Suroor did mention the Lowther, but her pedigree (Dubawi half sister to Mount Nelson) suggest 1m-10f should suit next year so I'd have thought a step up in trip would be more prudent, especially if Fair Eva goes to York.

I have had a point on at 33/1 with PP.
By:
Figgis
When: 25 Jul 16 12:55
Fair Eva beat Nations Alexander by 4L at Haydock. Nations Alexander and Kilmah come out the same horse in the Cherry Hinton.
So Fair Eva should best Kilmah 4L at Ascot. Thats exactly what happened.
Very simple way of looking at it but shows consistency between the fillies. It joins the form lines together.


Things don't always work out as simply as that but that's also pretty much how it comes out on the clock. The second and third both ran close to their Albany form with no improvement, which makes Fair Eva's performance very similar to Brave Anna's, which I have as a substandard Albany.
By:
jamesp
When: 25 Jul 16 13:10
My thoughts exactly, Figgis.  I made the same point about Fair Eva and Brave Anna (see above), and I agree with you that the Albany Stakes looked a rather substandard renewal this year.
By:
jamesp
When: 25 Jul 16 13:21
Fair Eva has been given a Racing Post Rating of 113, which looks somewhat excessive: they have Dainty Dandy running 13lbs better than her Albany Stakes performance.  Interestingly, it's the same rating achieved by Discourse for her second-time-out win in 2011 (in the Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes).  Discourse was 12/1 for the Guineas after that performance, Fair Eva is just 9/2 for next year's Guineas (Ladbrokes have just cut her from 5/1 to 4/1).
By:
Figgis
When: 25 Jul 16 14:00
Jamesp, I'm surprised they've increased Dainty Dandy by that much. I've experimented with a higher rating for the winner but it means everything else takes a significant hike on previous ratings, that wouldn't be impossible in a big 2yo race but seems unlikely here. I've used the same allowance for the big handicap with Librisa Breeze running to his Hunt Cup mark where everything else fits into place including all the other races on the straight.

I've argued before that one race can be out of step with the other times on a card due to wind change so it's possible Fair Eva's race could be such a race, however as using the same allowance has Kilmah and Dainty Dandy running close to their previous best I'm happy to take it at face value. In truth the ones out of the frame did look very weak opposition before the race. As it stands, for me, this form isn't even good enough to place in a moderate Guineas, the winner might be capable of better but she's going to need to improve 10lbs+ just to figure.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 25 Jul 16 14:33
Good posts chaps. Pretty hard to disagree with what you say.
By:
jamesp
When: 26 Jul 16 17:05
Yes Figgis, the bare form of Fair Eva's win is quite moderate (for the grade).  In order to award 113 to Fair Eva the RP handicapper has also raised the 4th, 5th, 6th and 7th by between 7lbs and 16lbs, which simply isn't credible.  People have simply been getting carried away by the manner of her two wins (and the fact that she's from Frankel's first crop).
By:
deepingfox
When: 26 Jul 16 23:42
Unclepuncle I am on at 33s too on Easy Victory, the on Guineas bet so far, and represents fair value.  Group win next time out and she could be a lot shorter.
By:
Roger De Bris
When: 28 Jul 16 02:53
great run on the clock by Fair Eva...
By:
jamesp
When: 01 Aug 16 14:17
Easy Victory features among 14 entries for next Saturday's Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket.  Godolphin won five consecutive renewals of this race between 2009 and 2013, and Easy Victory is sure to have her supporters following her promising debut win over 6f (the second and fifth have won since).  They also have Grecian Light (Charlie Appleby), who won a slowly-run maiden over C&D last time (the third has come out and won since), although she must be rated a doubtful runner if the ground remains fast.  But I prefer the claims of John Gosden's Dabyah, who looked a really classy filly when taking a C&D maiden recently from Amabilis, the pair six lengths clear of the remainder.  With normal improvement from that first run I would expect Dabyah to take Saturday's race on the way to better things later in the season.  The only reason I have not backed her for the Guineas is the fact that Amabilis got turned over next time at Goodwood (though the filly that beat her there, Rhododendron, is probably a smart prospect).  The fillies representing pattern-race form don't look anything special, although Bletchley (runner-up in the Albany Stakes before disappointing in the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes) could be worth another chance.
By:
jamesp
When: 03 Aug 16 13:48
Recent comments by Roger Charlton following Fair Eva's victory in the Princess Margaret Stakes:

"From the day she came here, we were very excited by her. She was always very professional and, as you saw yesterday, she is a wonderful mover. She needed to step up a gear but luckily her form has been well franked and she looked good. I think the only part of her pedigree that people might look at and say 'why would she stay further' is the fact that African Rose won the Haydock Sprint when it was run at Doncaster. She did run over eight furlongs though and won over seven furlongs. The family goes back and you've got Quest For Fame, who was a mile-and-a-half horse, Nijinsky, Roberto - (there's) a lot of stamina in there. It is a proper staying Juddmonte family that has produced some quick horses. Her half-sister by Dansili won twice over 10 furlongs so I would be as confident as you can be that she ought to get a mile."

Charlton told At The Races: "At the moment I think she is more than capable of stepping up as a two-year-old and therefore I would think that in three and a half weeks, which is about the ideal period between races, the Lowther has to come into the reckoning. It's a very good prize, a Group Two, I was encouraged to consider that and then three and a half weeks later you've got the Moyglare which is a Group One over seven furlongs. That is a possible programme. We don't want to overrace her but the Moyglare is quite a long time (away). I think what happens in her next races will tell us a lot, so I think we will keep all options open. We don't want to try to plan too far ahead."

Charlton rates Fair Eva highly, believing she compares favourably to Three Valleys who recorded a stunning eight-length triumph in the 2003 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. He added: "Three Valleys broke the course record when he ran away with the Coventry at Ascot and drifted to the right and wasn't hard pressed to do it. Dare I say it, drawn on a wing yesterday, having no cover and making up ground and to a certain extent not pushed out, she would have broken Henrythenavigator's course record yesterday, if that's what we had wanted to do."

Interesting comments, very encouraging for those who have backed Fair Eva for the Guineas.  It's hard to see her getting beaten in the Lowther unless the heavens open at the Knavesmire, though another Frankel filly, Queen Kindly, might give her something to think about.  The Moyglare, however, is likely to be a stiffer test.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 03 Aug 16 16:16
Really exciting comments by the trainer, exactly what I thought regards her pedigree as well. If you looked purely at her pedigree blind, with no knowledge of her racecourse performance, you might have had a thiught she could even be an Oaks filly.

Incidentally, there was an awful lot to like about the OB filly than took the maiden at GGoodwood - Rhododendrun. I have had a little of the 25s with the dwarfish welsher. She is a likely huge improver hat impressed Ken Peterson in the Weekender & he is a pretty shrewd judge.
By:
jamesp
When: 04 Aug 16 00:20
I was a little surprised to see Dabyah as big as 9/2 (with Power) for Saturday's Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes, as I was expecting her to be favourite following her highly promising debut win over C&D a few weeks ago.  I'd expect her to beat the likes of Nations Alexander (7/2) and Kilmah (9/2), and I don't see why Easy Victory (5/2F) should be shorter in the betting.  I've consequently had a bet on Dabyah (on the grounds of value alone).
By:
jamesp
When: 04 Aug 16 10:47
Dabyah was not declared this morning for the Sweet Solera Stakes Shocked Oh well, these things happen from time to time. Perhaps the bookies knew something I didn't.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 04 Aug 16 11:17
Easy Victory for an easy victory hopefully.Laugh
By:
jamesp
When: 04 Aug 16 12:26
One would have expected James Doyle to maintain his winning partnership with Easy Victory, but instead he has been booked to ride Charlie Appleby's filly Grecian Light, with David Probert coming in for the ride on Easy Victory.  This seems to indicate that Grecian Light is the better fancied of the Godolphin pair.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 04 Aug 16 15:23
Certainly would appear that way - Probert a very strange choice?Confused
Because of that uncertainty I won't be backing Easy Victory on Saturday.
In fact have just taken some 9/2 on Grecian Light.Crazy
By:
jamesp
When: 04 Aug 16 21:03
The entries for the Gr.1 Prix Morny (21 August, Deauville) have just been released.  Only four fillies have been entered: likely favourite (following her hugely impressive 7 length win in the Gr.2 Queen Mary Stakes) Lady Aurelia, Freddie Head's Gr.3 Prix de Cabourg winner Alrahma, Mark Johnston's Kilmah, who looks out of her depth, and Al Johrah (distant runner-up in the Queen Mary and subsequently runner-up in the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin).

Aidan O'Brien has a number of options, including Caravaggio, Peace Envoy and Intelligence Cross.  Other entries include Mehmas (winner of the Gr.2 Richmond Stakes) and Tis Marvellous (winner of the Gr.2 Prix Robert Papin).

The only one that might possibly develop into a 1000 Guineas filly is Alrahma, who made a good impression last time in the Prix de Cabourg, winning narrowly but quite comfortably on just her second start.  She's by Shamardal out of a 9f Listed winner, so she should get a mile next year.  Her trainer remarked after the Prix de Cabourg: "She is a lovely filly who I like a lot and I don't think she was 100% today, as she had delays in her preparation and had coughed a bit.  It was not ideal to bring her to this, but she's good and did it well.  She was slightly green, but I couldn't be more happy.  I think she'll stay further in time, as there is a lot of stamina in her family."
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 06 Aug 16 15:09
Had a shilling each way on Nations Alexander in the Sweet Solera.
By:
impossible123
When: 06 Aug 16 15:17
Nations Alexander just boosted the form of Fair Eva.
By:
FELTFAIR
When: 06 Aug 16 15:25
LoveLove
By:
jamesp
When: 06 Aug 16 15:53
Nations Alexander didn't need to show any improvement to win today's slowly-run (more than half a second slower than the nursery) Gr.3 Sweet Solera Stakes.  We have learned nothing new from today's race.  I still think that the form of this season's Duchess of Cambridge Stakes looks very ordinary (for the grade), despite Nations Alexander's win this afternoon.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 06 Aug 16 16:55
Well done Feltfair.

Godolphin really are hopeless.Cry
By:
jamesp
When: 08 Aug 16 14:50
COT, Rhododendron's form could be tested as soon as this weekend: the Goodwood runner-up Amabilis and third Argenterie have both been entered for the Washington Singer Stakes (Listed) at Newbury on Saturday.  Amabilis holds an alternative engagement in the mile fillies' maiden at Doncaster on Saturday.
By:
jamesp
When: 12 Aug 16 18:34
The Princess Margaret Stakes form was tested for the first time this afternoon, with Dainty Dandy (third to Fair Eva, beaten 4.75 lengths at Ascot) and Tallulah Rose (fourth, beaten 6 lengths in the same race) both finishing tailed off in the St Hugh's Stakes (Listed) at Newbury (beaten 20 lengths and 22 lengths respectively).  Paul Hanagan reported that Dainty Dandy lost her action, so her running should be ignored, while the other filly's performance looked too bad to be true (though there were no apparent excuses).
By:
jamesp
When: 13 Aug 16 14:52
Amabilis failed to frank the form of her maiden conquerors Dabyah and Rhododendron when finishing well beaten in the Washington Singer Stakes (Listed)at Newbury this afternoon, behind the useful-looking colt Escobar.  She carried her head a little bit high under pressure and didn't look terribly keen.

Luca Cumani sent out a useful-looking daughter of Frankel called Aljezeera to win the mile fillies maiden at Doncaster this afternoon.  She's sure to improve and looks a nice middle distance prospect for next year.  Frankel's first winner over a mile, I think...
By:
bosra shame
When: 22 Aug 16 09:09
A great run from Alrahma in the Morny yesterday and I am surprised she is not listed in any odds compliers lists for the Guineas. Has Freddie Head ever sent one over to HQ ? His great fillies like Goldikova and Moonlight Cloud didn't travel over.
By:
bosra shame
When: 22 Aug 16 10:14
Delete that, Moonlight Cloud did run Crazy
By:
cryoftruth
When: 23 Aug 16 09:13
I was at York to see the excellent performance of Queen Kindly and the sad demise of Eva.

Its clear that Fahey fancied his filly strongly and she is very good especially as Roly Poly is improving all the time.

Fair Eva may have had excuses. She looked dull in the paddock,and ended up on edge and sweating. She looked fantastic at Ascot apparently. One theory is that she had a harder race at Ascot than first appeared and had not fully got over that run. Whatever I am not convinced we saw the real Eva at York and have certainly not yet given up on her.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 23 Aug 16 10:04
I certainly agree that all is not lost in terms of the antepost Guineas vouchers.

I hope they give her plenty of time and forget the Moyglare. Maybe look at either the Boussac or Fillies Mile, though I wouldn't be bothered if she doesn't run again.
By:
bosra shame
When: 23 Aug 16 12:27
I can easily see her bouncing back but she is too ground dependent for her to be an attractive wager long term
By:
unclepuncle
When: 23 Aug 16 15:10
I don't necessarily see her as being ground dependent. It was a combination of things at York, ground, trip, track, opposition and possibly not being 100% right on the day.
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