LC is still improving, she is going to be an absolute beast on Arc day

I'm a bit baffled by very bold statements like these about a horse you still only rate a 1 in 7 chance?

So as you've said you don't rate the opposition then you must be only allowing for the risk she doesn't make the race? If all intended runners lined up and the race was tomorrow what price would you make her?

I dont think shes a certainty, I just like her and shes never let me down.

The trials and the Irish Champion could potentially change a lot but at this stage if the race was tomorrow id say 6/1 is about right, if I knew she would stay I would probably have her half that price because I think with the weight allowance and her excellent preparation she would have the advantage over the other 3 in the big 4.

I know her form is not bombproof or exceptional and im nowhere near as confident as I was about Treve but I think she has everything you want for an Arc horse bar proven stamina and I dont see anything unbeatable against her, she doesnt owe me anything and theres no way I can oppose her.

Silverwave is one that interests me. Won the Grand Prix de St Cloud and seems a typical French type i.e. trained for the Arc and nothing else. Also ran the fastest final 600m in last year's Arc (make of that what you will). Entered in the Foy this Sunday.

I have had a quick look (last half hour as there has certainly been a decent debate going on)  at La Cressonniere’s prospects of staying. Forgive me if there are any mistakes.

Sire Prix du Jockey-Club winner Le Havre’s (Noverre (USA) (7.7f) — Marie Rheinberg (GER)  (Surako (GER) (f)) best progeny over a distance excluding the obvious includes Auvray (by In The Wings (11.8f) who won a relatively weak 15f Prix Chaudenay (Group 2)  and not much else at first glance if you ask me.

I can’t find much on her dam Absolute Lady (by Galileo) other than that she was placed once (beaten a length at Clairefontaine at 3 years) in France in six starts over middle distances in the French Provinces. Her 2nd dam Lil’s Jessy (by Kris, 9.9f) won the 7f Nell Gwyn but failed to stay a mile on three occasions up in class; Lil’s Jessy herself produced Paris Winds ( by Galileo, own/full-sister to Absolute Lady) who was 3rd in the G2 Blandford Stakes over 10f and later a stakes winner over 1 1/16 miles in the U.S . La Cressonniere’s 3rd dam Lobmille (by Mill Reef, 11.2f) produced Lone Bid (by Priolo, 11.0f) who came 3rd in the 9f Group I Hollywood Derby.  Perhaps it is through her 4th dam Light O’Battle (by Queen's Hussar, 10.7f) that you would look to in her female line for the necessary stamina or brightest hope and it is a distinguished female line as she was a full-sister to Highclere (1000 Guineas/Prix de Diane winner) who produced the exceptional broodmare Height of Fashion (Bustino), dam of stamina endowed sires Nashwan, Unfuwain and Nayef who all won over 10f+, however, La Cressonniere’s 3rd dam, Lobmille was closely related to Rise and Fall (dam Light Duty), dam of Fly To The Stars (won the Lockinge) and 2nd dam of Fallen For You (Coronation Stakes) so her female line is quite a mix.

Taking all that into consideration- kin no chance the filly stays.

Connections of star French filly La Cressonniere feel she would have no trouble staying 12 furlongs in the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe.

The daughter of Le Havre, who won the 2009 French Derby for the same owners and Jean-Claude Rouget, added the Prix de Diane to her success in the French 1000 Guineas and remained unbeaten in the process.

Sylvain Vidal, racing manager for Augustin-Normand, said: "It is too soon to say where you will see her next, we just want to enjoy the Diane win first.
"Obviously we were very happy, she won easy and showed a good turn of foot."

"The jockey (Cristian Demuro) was very impressed by her.

"We need to talk to Jean-Claude, it is a bit soon to say what's next but she won going away over 10 furlongs and I think she would easily stay 12.

dont know if you got mixed up by posters, I said I was more confident about Treve, another poster said they had £20 on Treve

I went all in treve

Madhu, the other day you ripped apart poor old Yasuo Tomomichi's training record, which actually wasn't too shabby considering how competitive Japanese horse racing is. This got me thinking about other trainers in this years race and the great Dermot Weld popped into my head! I couldn't recall him getting anywhere close to winning an Arc. Last year Free Eagle was never going to win and it always seemed a bit of an after thought (I did post on last years thread before the race). His two 3yr old colts Zagreb and Grey Swallow both ran in the Arc after winning the Irish Derby, Zagreb went straight to the Arc with a 3 month gap and Grey Swallow ran in the Irish Champion Stakes before the Arc. The similarity of how Zagreb and Grey Swallow performed in the Arc was very similar, they both weakened quickly in the straight and faded out of sight. The question is will Harzand be hindered by the training ability of Dermot Weld? Before anybody shoots me down I'm taking the pish... but it is food for thought!

I had quick shifty on Wiki for poor old Yasuo Tomomichi, bless him and got....

The page "Yasuo Tomomichi" does not exist. You can ask for it to be created, but consider checking the search results below to see whether the topic is already covered.

You could copy and paste what you posted yesterday and start it for him. I'm sure Mr Tomomichi will be very grateful of your support!

Lemaire very bullish about Makahiki this morning talking to the Japanese press. I will not post what he said because it might make him look a complete plonker after the Prix Niel!!!

Harzand is really quite similar to Sinndar imo. His prior form and Derby performance was very similar - pulling 5 lengths clear with Sakhee. Form at the time was not exceptional on paper - the favourite was Beat Hollow for christs sake - and Sakhee got stuffed in the Eclipse next time and never ran again that season.

Sinndar then easily won an incredibly weak Irish Derby and Prix Niel before beating a non-staying French Oaks winner Eygptband and thats seasons top older horse Montjeu in the Arc.

This year Harzand has to beat LC and Postponed - Simples.
The only potential fly in the ointment is the Japanese horse.

Harry, my support of Harzand is as a 12f horse, not 10. It wouldn't surprise me if he was able to win the ICS on soft ground but anything better than that and I'd have doubts. I just can't see why you'd go for Ireland rather than a Chantilly prep.

I should have added that I had a very good figure for her as a 2yr old at Newmarket which was well up to winning the Gns. I made her 114 projecting to 123.

I'm surprised you have a higher final time figure for the Oaks than the Guineas, projections aside, I have the Oaks as pretty ordinary but she was obviously value for more with the trouble in running. I always wanted to see Zarkava tested by a top class colt in a fast run race as I had doubts that her finishing kick would be as effective but it never happened. I think Minding is at least as good in a fast run mile, it's just a pity we haven't seen her given a proper test yet over a longer trip. On the other hand it could work in her favour as I doubt her recent races would've taken too much out of her.

I'm sure she regressed quite a lot for the Irish version and said so at the time. I know it was said that Jet Setting was also a top class filly but it must be obvious now that she's not. It could be said that maybe Minding's Guineas win wasn't as good as I thought but I'm still happy to keep the high rating. Horses can regress after a big run but come back to their best later. It's difficult to know with Minding as her races since haven't really been up to much but I take it as a good sign that they're going for the Irish Champion with her. Unfortunately this gives rise to another imponderable as we don't know if Saturday's race will leave its mark on whatever wins.

project your numbers all you like . just look at those that peaked at the olympics , bolt , farah , et al . id like to mention laura muir whom is gonna be the top 1500m runner imo next year( she is now dl wise but not medal wise ) when your good and the others are good .it boils down to whom is laid out for this race with the class . froome is the best cyclist but he cant win the vuelta cos he peaked for the tour / olympics . so giving them a number and saying that one has the best rating is wrong imo cos its about whom is about to produce their peak performance . i reckon harzan or le cress

its about whom is about to produce their peak performance

Which was already covered with the mentions of regressive runs and races leaving their marks.

I think the English 1000G form was the best for Minding but the Irish equivalent is less so given atrocious condition and that bang on her nostril. I wouldn't hold too much credence of the Epsom Oaks though as the runner-up had been beaten several times since. It'd be Seventh Heaven for me over 12f against Minding provided the ground is no worse than good.

Makahiki is odds-on for the Niel without Harzand on sunday at Chantilly. If he wins convincingly he'd depose Postponed as 'fav' for this race and the same goes for Harzands if he beats Minding in the Irish Champions Stakes on saturday. But on race day the French will back La Cressonniere and the Irish Harzand especially if he wins this saturday.

I think it is very unlikely the 'Arc' is on the agenda for Seventh Heaven this year as she's been scratched from the Vermeille despite ground condition in her favour.