Horse Antepost
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These 1567 comments are related to the topic:
~~ Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016 ~~
~~ Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016 ~~
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this trainer loves to get them spot on for the big day, lovely prep run
No argument against bombing Harry. All the best trainers (Fabre, Stoute, AOB, Hammond,s bin Suroor et al) have had horses bomb when they believed they had prepared there horses well. |
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Figgis
(POSTPONED) he's more likely than most to run below his best. I agree with you. On the face of it he looks good. He stays 12f, he has form on any ground, and he has been targeted at the race. BUT, he looks like a horse that could regress. I'll take a loss on him but not for big money.I will wait for the day to back him though, just in case he becomes a NR. |
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yes was just ribbing brigust
there is certainly something to be said for those horses you real off sandown, i always thought montjeu was never as good as a 4 year old, that japanese horse must was some tool to put it up to him giving weight when you look at certain horses that have had a hard season and have peaked for other top races there is certainly something to be said for the younger or even a horse whom has had far less tougher races in there career, treve was always looked after whereas some had had tough duels through the season...the younger horse has less quirks and if given the traditional big break after there derbys can come back and obviously get the weight...i never thought stoute would get workforce back but he did i find postponed a tough horse here peaked for dubai with a prep run then even though he didn't run it trained for the king george...it'll be interesting to see if he can perform to a top level again here |
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i see satona diamond won the ledger trail dinos...loomed up nicely before just being ridden out...these japanese trainers certainly like to leave plenty to work on in regards future targets
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Yep Harry, SD never settled for Lemaire throughout the race but still won nicely... very cute ride from Lemaire again. Air Spinal always likes to be on the pace but they tried different tactics today with him, he didn't seem to enjoy being held up at all and ran a bit flat (4th).
That's the way they prep over there most of the time. A Shin Hikari showed what can happen when you bolt up and win by a distance after a long layoff... next race bombs out. |
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yes the dreaded bounce got a shin hikari...that was the best performance of the season for me on turf...the american dirt horses are the best bunch of dirt horses are have seen in one season to have 4 really is a treat
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Mr Dinos
I haven't seen the raced yet but on the bare result its impossible to rate the winner any higher than before i.e 121. Where does that leave Makahiki? The same as before, top rated 123 on RPR. He has to improve to win the race but with Postponed best rated on 126 it would be no surprise if he did which is why Postponed is vulnerable to an improver. He will have to handle the slower likely conditions which is an unknown but as it doesn't look as though it will be very soft, despite the forecast for 10mm on Saturday, that shouldn't be an excuse. I think his price is about 10.0 so not too far adrift from the market. |
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i find it interesting sandown that you had a dig at an earlier poster for his odds compiling...yet you yourself have done postponed at 10 la cress at 20 and now makahiki at 10 already on this thread in recent weeks...so what price do you make harzand?
i'm interested because this can only be that you are pricing it up on every runner when we know that a lot of the entries aren't going to be running...i just find it quite funny do me a favour put up your tissue with a week to run so i can understand your reasoning |
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It's like deja vu Sandown, you posted the same last week when Dee Majesty won. It was a prep race for the Japanese St Leger, he ain't going to run anywhere near his best in a prep race when he is 70-80% fit/after a long layoff. The rating has not changed... what a shock.
Makahiki, Satono Diamond and Dee Majesty have all won their individual prep races without having hard races, hardly a negative and shows the form is pretty solid. Better than losing two G3 races? |
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Sandown, where are you seeing a forecast of 10mm of rain for Saturday? I've just looked on the Weather Channel website and the forecast looks pretty dry but not completely dry leading up to the race. They say they have only had 0.02 of an inch of rain in the past week.
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Harry
What don't you understand about odds compiling? Just as the market changes daily, so can a tissue. It all depends on form developments and prospects of running. The prices are not fixed . Is that too hard for you to understand? Surely not.What will run and will not is not a matter of certainty but of probability. In A/P betting its probably the biggest variable. To find it funny is funny in itself. Were you always at the back of the class taking the pi** but not taking anything in, I wonder? What I stake and how I trade depends on my view which changes. As for giving you my tissue, what do you want a free ride? Do your own. |
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Mr Dinos
Why do you take a comment as a criticism of the horse? I made an observation on Makahiki's rating . That's not contentious, surely? |
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Beryl
I listed the site on the post which you refer to. It comes from one linked to the racecourse. |
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Thanks Sandown.
A much drier forecast on there now. If correct, and it's a big if then you couldn't rule out fast ground. |
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i certainly won't be getting a free ride from you sandown bookmaking wise and have no wish to be insulted by you either
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Why do you take a comment as a criticism of the horse?
You just keep banging on about his RPR... we know what his RPR is. Broken record springs to mind Sandown.  |
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Then don't try to be a clever di** and you wont be, harry.
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As the race day gets progressively closer the prices of the main protagonists with the exception of Postponed - it's already short enough, I believe - and all things being equal, can only get progressively smaller too especially La Cressionniere (local support) and Harzand (Irish contingent) with both certain runners; the latter maybe later on post Dermot weld's runners Eziyra and/or Forgotten Rules at the Curragh today.
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Much the same way that you keep banging on about the horse Mr Dinos?
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Snap... begging or praying for rain Sandown?
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Beryl
Weather forecasts change as rapidly as do betting tissues it seems |
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Everyone feeling a bit touchy?
My question is if AOB gets a winner and is interviewed will he let slip his likely Arc runners with only a week to go? Now that is really interesting in my opinion after the last few posts. |
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Interview O'Brien ffs. I'm off to the airport soon.
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Have a good trip.
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Thanks F. Mind you Michael Winters just made a load of sense.
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They're taking the pee. AOB knows what is running by now. Perhaps he wants to see what the opposition is.
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OOSG, Found and Highland Reel. Minding to Ascot for one of 3 races.
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Thanks G. No wonder AOB doesn't win the Arc very often. He has the ammunition but doesn't get it there.
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I think AOB is weather watching like some here. If the ground is soft, OoSG will likely run and Minding will not - Minding heads for the Champion Stakes instead.
The weather forecast for Chantilly and Chantilly racecourse vary and constantly changing; some rain is expected at Chantilly racecourse on friday evening, saturday morning and possibly sunday afternoon too, at the moment but changeable. |
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Evening Gents - Anyone want to share 12f draw stats for Chantilly ? I remember having been there for the French Derby (when 12f) back in the 90s that its right handed (lovely view of a Chateau across the track) but how tight is it ? How longs the straight etc ? Be good for us all to get some info as the day approaches ...
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La Cress out
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will they run the other one now
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Unbelievable.
 Wouldn't surprise me if they do run Almanzor now... betting ante-post can be an absolute nightmare! |
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Plan is still Ascot per trainer
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A wise decision by Rouget.
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such a shame for the race losing her
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I agree with Mr Dinos. If anyone wants to give me the name of the best 12f race at Chantilly I'll do the research on the RP site and share ...
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Was hers to lose. shame.
Onto you now Postponed mate. |
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best thing about this years arc weekend is we wont have the commentator race after race banging on about the false straight and the 2nd winning post,although at least once they,ll probably forget there at chantily and give the false straight a plug
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or no Abbaye run behind 400 parked Citroens
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