Horse Antepost
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I liked what i saw from So Mi Dar. Obviously she'd have to show up next time before they think more about Epsom, but she's obviously decent. Still available at 8/1, which would look better if Minding wasn't around. Let's see how things go.
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Very promising run I think, and at 8/1 is still backable considering she handles Epsom's undulation; So Mi Dar is also very likely to stay the Oaks' trip of 12f too. Minding at 7/2, on the other hand, no doubt has better credentials but has yet to prove she handles Epsom or 12f.
I'm looking forward to So Mi Dar's run in the Musidora next month, little doubt she'll start 'fav' or close to 'fav', I'd imagine. |
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dosage looks v/good
http://www.pedigreequery.com/so+mi+dar |
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Dosage looks very good - what does that mean?
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It's when folk look at a horses family tree to determine whether or not it will get a certain trip. Don't need to look anyway, she will be ok over 12f.
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Thanks, one learns something new every day.
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Turret Rocks? She had a troubled passage in the Guineas but ran well enough to finish sixth, especially considering the indifferent form of the Bolger yard. By the sprinter Fastnet Rock out of a Galileo mare -- like last year's Oaks winner.
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I backed Even Song before she ran yesterday behind the very impressive Swiss Range (now heads for the Prix Diane). Even Song is a half-sister to Simple Verse and will relish the step up in trip.
She wouldn't have beaten Swiss Range given the pace was slow, but it was her first run of the season and she got stopped twice in-ruuning. RP comments ''Held up in touch towards rear, not clear run and switched left and right over 1f out, switched left inside final furlong, pushed along and stayed on well to go 3rd towards finish, no chance with winner (op 4/1)'' |
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I liked Swiss Range after she hacked at the Craven meeting but Gosden sees her as a 10f horse hence he having no Oaks entry.
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*her
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The way Minding blew the 1000 guineas apart has basically made any oaks trials redundant now. If she lines up at Epsom I don't see how they can get her beat.
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I agree but she is Even money ante-post. She'll be that price or bigger on the day.
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Wouldn't be laying myself. All about opinions. If USAR doesn't do enough at Chester, there's no knowing where she could turn up. More knowledgable folk than myself would lay her at the prices. I think there's easier nights sleep to be had by laying something else.
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I think Minding will bypass the Irish 1000G and head straight for the Oaks bound if sound regardless of how UAR performs at Chester because O'Brien has the likes of The Gurka, Johannes Vermeer, Idaho, Hit A Bomb and Deauville to call upon for the Derby. Also, to pitch Minding in against the colts eg Midterm and Galileo Gold (2000G winner) is a decision too far even for the Coolmore "boys", I believe.
Minding has an excellent chance to land the Oaks next month. |
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Moore will know. He's been on Midterm and he will be at Chester. He will have an idea of other trial opposition. They will know if they have an adequate enough colt soon enough.
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I doubt very much Minding will run against the colts in the Epsom Derby as even the best fillies like Oh So Sharpe and/or Taghrooda, both easy Oaks winners, did not take that route; Tagrooda did take in the Arc though and Minding, if winning the Oaks easily, could take on the colts in the King George and QE Stakes at Ascot, and then possibly the 'Arc' at Chantilly in Oct.
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Coolmore have never run a filly in the Derby to my knowledge and I very much doubt they'll start now. They tend to favour their colts from the breeding operation point of view, so the idea of a filly chinning their own colts is probably not something they'd be keen on.
If you do want to take on this minding, who looks a bit of a monster, then surely her stamina for the mile and a half is the only possible achilles heel. to some degree she reminds me of lush lashes who won the musidora easily but then fell in a hole halfway up the epsom home straight. She later got a mile and a half easily but may not have been conditioned for the mile and a half at Epsom.Minding is a better filly than she was but is she too brilliantly fast? Looking back at previous fillies to have done the guineas/oaks double, few had their races won at halfway like Minding did showing such brilliant pace. |
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I am not sure Minding will stay 12 furlongs. There is a lot of speed on the dam's side of her pedigree.
With that doubt evens has to be a lay price. |
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The way Minding blew the 1000 guineas apart has basically made any oaks trials redundant now.
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Minding has a very high cruising speed, and she can quicken of it. Of course, there is no certainty she'll stay 12f until running in it but the way she settles, quickens and runs on there is an extremely good chance she'll; she might even go for The St Leger, if winning the Oaks easily, and could emulate Oh So Sharp as the 1st filly to capture the Triple Crown since 1985.
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On the other hand Ballydoyle, despite finishing 2nd in the 1000G after a tardy start, would be campaigned over 8/10f according to trainer yet is 2nd 'fav' in the Epsom Oaks betting.
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There is depth in the form of So Mi Dar Epsom win; the 2nd and 3rd in that race have both won their respective Derby trials at Lingfield and Chester.
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6/1 so mi dar drying up now must be a each way steal with minding still not 100%sure to go the form as bin franked twice will only get shorter
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Minding can be had at 2.46 here compare to 1/1 with on-street bookies - a 50% profit just on discrepancy - a much better and quicker return than what the banks are currently offering.
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Minding can be had at 2.46 here compare to 1/1 with on-street bookies - a 50% profit just on discrepancy - a much better and quicker return than what the banks are currently offering.
Three little words -- "with a run". Check the terms before doing your brains on a non-existent arb. |
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^^ or I could be looking at the Derby market because ... reasons.
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Moore is 4/5 to be on UAR and 7/1 Minding in The Derby so, why take 5/2 with Laddies and/or 6/1 with one other?
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Aiden O'Brien has just given his full backing to Us Army Ranger for The Derby which will no doubt enhance Minding's participation in the Epsom Oaks.
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Ramruma how do you arb an even money with high st books and 2.46 here?
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Charlton2005
Charlton2005 03 May 16 20:18 Joined: 25 Aug 05 | Topic/replies: 4,669 | Blogger: Charlton2005's blog The way Minding blew the 1000 guineas apart has basically made any oaks trials redundant now. Laugh evidently one moronic comment after another from this guy. stay on horseracing fella and leave AP to the experts |
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So Mi Dar probably improved 10-12lbs after her last performance 3 weeks ago, and could of won lot further if not keen ....a great performance.
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Every horse is beatable, and So Mi Dar won very impressively; So Mi Dar is a very worthy opponent in the Epsom Oaks - a good race in prospect come Epsom next month.
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With the stamina doubts about Minding the betting is the wrong way round. The Gosden filly should be favourite.
That was very impressive with obvious improvement to come over the extra distance. Minding would have to be some filly to run the finish out of So Mi Dar and unless she Frankie's filly's turn of foot would be hard to match. 11/4? Looks more like a 6/4 shot to me now. |
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EVS is utterly rdiculous as that will be bigger in running for Minding. Minding is the fav, and will stay , trust me.
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She may stay.
Her full sister was a winner at a mile and flopped over 12 furlongs. Her dam was a miler, although arguably bred to stay further. She looks like she will stay as she runs ion very well at a mile. She is very good! Its a good race if they both turn up fit and well. |
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yes, but never ever take EVS antepost on any horse race. thats a sure fire to lose longterm
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I was a small layer at evens and am going to wait to see if I can get 2/1 Minding as a backer .
Sometimes evens is a good price even ante post. |
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statiscally horse racing favs win 30-35% of the time no matter what odds so i try avoiding anything close evens as possible
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For example, after Troy won at Epsom by 7 lenghts and connections announced that his next run would be the Irish Derby, evens on offer was an utter steal for thise, unlike me, who never took those odds.
Of course Troy hosed up at the Curragh before winning King George and the York race. Hebwas pretty good Troy and historically underrated. I think it was Tony Murray who brought Dickens Hill out about a furlong and a half out, and quickened well. Muray afterwards said he was just thinking he'd got it when Troy simply shot past him. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=GXlpnJchK8c Is an interesting watch. |