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Oaks 2016
Oaks 2016
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Although i'm a backer of Even Song a few weeks back, i'm shocked at her current odds. I don't see how she can be 3rd fav, possible outright fav if the other two don't run, on the back of an unlucky 3rd behind Swiss Range.
I have just backed Skiffle now at 14/1. Most out of value than confidence as she'll be single figures on the day, regardless if Minding runs. |
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If Minding stays the trip she'll win as she's head and shoulders above any of the other runners, the one closest in rating to her is Turret Rocks (124) who is still 11lbs inferior ie one is betting on her stamina, and odds against is value, in my opinion.
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if minding runs in the oaks its just 12 days since she was eyeballs out .i much prefer a 21 to 35 day lay off to let them recover . i like ballydoyle myself .
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12 days is far from ideal between Group 1 races but that was an afterthought because of Ballydoyle. Hopefully, Minding's class and her running style will allow her to overcome this.
Ballydoyle is unlikely to see out the Oaks trip and has never been seen as a middle-distance horse by connections when asked after winning the Boussac in France. And now she's off colour which makes it even more unlikely for her participation. I think she'll not run in the Irish Oaks even if she's ok with/out the presence of Minding. I hope Minding runs, I also hope she wins because she's an exceptional filly and her class will (hopefully) see her through the Oaks trip, and odd against is value believe it or not. |
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impossible 123 you are obviously a very astute knowlegable punter . in my eyes if a gallileo stays a stiff ascot 7f on its second start as a 2yo it will stay an oaks around a tight epsom
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as a 3yo
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gpz6316
If only. I'd like to think I'm more discipline now and recognise horse racing to Coolmore is more of a business than a sport unlike the Sheikhs. I've been lucky with the Oaks so far. I've backed Minding all the way down from 5/1 and laid off 4x stake money at 1.75 and ring fenced remainder with "nrnb" so every runner is a winner for me unless The Oaks is abandoned. Of course, So Mi Dar being a non runner has helped tremendously because I do not believe Ballydoyle will stay 12f and do battle with Minding. |
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gpz6316 24 May 16 23:54 Joined: 28 Jul 12 | Topic/replies: 198 | Blogger: gpz6316's blog
impossible 123 you are obviously a very astute knowlegable punter  impossible123 20 May 16 20:16 Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 1,151 | Blogger: impossible123's blog Irish 2000G - AFB 2pts win @ 3/1 Sky***. impossible123 07 May 16 17:22 Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 1,151 | Blogger: impossible123's blog Epsom Oaks - So Mi Dar - 2pts win @ 6/1 Bet*** impossible123 Date Joined: 07 Sep 15 Add contact | Send message 06 May 16 16:59 Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 1,151 | Blogger: impossible123's blog Irish 2000G - AFB - 2pts win at 7/2 Bet***.......redemption. impossible123 05 May 16 17:53 Joined: 07 Sep 15 | Topic/replies: 1,151 | Blogger: impossible123's blog Galileo Gold - Derby - 2pt win @ 9/1 (WH). shakespears eternal theme - appearance and reality #astute |
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Charlton,
AFB was on a redemption mission but scuppered by the going and did not get a run for my money - very disappointed - nonetheless, laid off original capital because of adverse weather forecast but lost a little on the day expecting AFB would be scrathced; I had So Mi Dar at 6/1 post Epsom Derby Trial and laid off all and more, and ring fenced profit with a "nrnb" with bet*** at 11/4. The Oaks will be a good result, better if Minding runs and a bonus if Ballydoyle does not as I firmly believe Coolmore will never run these two fillies in the Oaks and Ballydoyle is very unlikely to stay 12f. In these days, I find this is the only prudent approach but still needs careful and constant attention / managing, news dependent. |
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i bought apple at $1, ringfenced it all at $500 and now i work when i feel like it
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Minding will be fine, Ballydoyle won't run until Ascot.
From what I've heard her cuts + bruises are very minor and not a problem. The wounds didn't really matter too much since she'd only have been doing easy work anyway, so a little rest doesn't interfere, she's super-fit. Her run in the Irish 1000, as some have said, would have been needed as a blowout at that stage anyway, Will she run to 100% at Epsom, ... it's hard to say ... but she'll be very close and that makes her a massive fav, esp w the top two splitting. |
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Ballydoyle, unless I'm missing something from France, is surely a NAP for the Coronation Stakes also if high summer and G/F ground - she didn't get any luck in the English 1000 and still put in a performance that would have won it maybe 4 times out of 5
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And, finally, while Epsom means a lot to Coolmore,
With the politics around Aidan + Coolmore, Ascot and the money it attracts really means more to Aidan these days as he's bringing in select new owners and .. well, anyone in that game needs to make their contacts and press the flesh and win some races, even if it's only for a bit more bargaining power to have in planning w Magnier. |
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I'd expect Ballydoyle to be trading at 33's in the Oaks later today as you scoop up all the free cash. Unless you don't know anything ?
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why the hell would I lay her at 33 when people are more than happy to back her at 7s !? :D
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Anyway, I like Ballydoyle a lot, so I'm not keen on opposing her too much. Clipped the reverse forecast in the Guineas.
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Someone wants £104 at 8.4 here for Ballydoyle, a gift horse in the mouth? I'd oblige if I'd not already laid her massively.
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Now that Ballydoyle has been ruled out as she is heading for the Prix Diane (French Oaks) or Coronation Stakes what are the main opponents to Minding? The two obvious ones and closest to Minding on rating of 124 are Turret Rocks, train by the astute/crafty Jim Bolger and loves good/good to firm ground, and Fireglow whose trainer, Johnston, I believe has said will be campaigned over 8f/10f in the future post Musidora. However, Minding's main challenger could be her stablemate, Even Song, who is more likely to stay the trip better than most in the field.
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Even Song will get the trip standing on her head. It just depends if she is good enough and won't need the run.
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I don't see how Even Song is under any consideration for winning this race, She'll no doubt get the trip well but surely she'll be on pacemaking duty !?
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big wobble on Turret Rocks also,
AO'B and Jim Bolger do often avoid each other, Turret looks like she could be better suited to the Irish Oaks, |
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..."big wobble on Turret Rocks also"...
I do not think so.....9.2/9.4 have been taken. And even though Even Song is definitely number two in the AOB pecking order she's not there to make the pace as her previous races would testified ie she's always been held back. Another silly betting emerging here, Skiffle has been back to about 9/1 on hope rather than form making the prices of Minding, Even Song, Architecture and Turret Rocks (who'll have his ground) a mockery in comparison. |
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Eleven left in the Oaks with AOB responsible for five of them namely Minding, Even Song, Somehow, Seventh Heaven and How High The Moon - the rest are Turret Rocks, Skiffle, Architecture, Harlequeen, Diamonds Pour Moi and Australian Queen.
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cashed out on all and took advantage on the swings. around 50 quid all green , not much. i will take advantage of the inrunning and now hope to get 4.0 in running on minding.
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Don't want to denegrate your bets GIG, but I'm not quite certain why you consider that we should know that you are £50 all green. Considering your very large number of posts on this thread, it seems on the relatively low side to be making it known.What reaction are you expecting to this news?
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GIG
May I ask why you've cashed out rather than laid them individually? The reason I've asked is because I did cash out once but later realised I could have 2x my profit if I had laid them individually. Skiffle is 15/2 now, but you could still have 12/1 yesterday with some high street bookies. What a stupid price with the presence of Minding? |
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GIG, no offence, but no-one will believe that.
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ffs
With due respect there was a massive gap in prices between the range you mentioned - 2 or 3 I believe and little money involved eg at best £2 or £3 per (gap) price - hence cannot be construed as a big wobble unlike that happened with Minding, how do I know? Because I was one of the few beneficiaries of the drift of Minding only £10 each at 3.3 and 4 - sometimes fortunes do favour the brave. I've also noticed there's been deliberate attempt at manipulation on Minding a couple of weeks ago, today on UAR (earlier) and presently on Ulysses - I suggest you just look at the amounts on either side - back/lay - which is a clear give away. I agree Turret Rocks a danger to Minding, if staying, as Bolger has always had her earmarked for this race since the Boussac; Even Song a certain stayer unlike the majority here but lacking a bit of form like Skiffle. |
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I've also noticed there's been deliberate attempt at manipulation.
Its my payback to the sheep like bots. |
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geoff m
I do not understand your use of 'smiley faces' but I've used them (manipulation) to my benefit each time as I've managed to get some 6/6.2 on UAR this morning. |
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I've backed both Skiffle & Even Song ante-post but if I had to choose between them now at their current prices then it would be Skiffle. She won at Listed last time out on only her second run and has achieved more than Even Song. Granted ES was unlucky in-runningm hence beaten 5 lengths, but she's not demonstrated much speed. She could be just an out and out stayer.
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you're desperate to impress GIG. It won't fool anyone!
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GIG
Ignore, I've done with two so far ie Char**on and er*c, maybe more to follow. I always remember what my dad says about telling a lie: "You're only kidding yourself and no one else." I've always thought forums like these are meant for sharing information and not massaging one's ego. |
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I'd just be concerned with Skiffle that she had two runs in quick succession, and the improvement might not be there coming back out again quickly.
Seeing also as she was thought of as a Ribblesdale filly, she can't have been showing much. As for the tactics, well I think AO'B will look to dictate it - whether he uses Even Song from the front or not he has the small field size anyway, For Minding I'm sure they'll want to dictate it to get her home - doesn't suit Even Song either way. 11 runners atm, surely a couple of Ballydoyle will come out. Turret Rocks has some chance, but only if the fav is well below par. And she has been flawless so far. |
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That's my view on it now - I gave you all notice that Ballydoyle would split and Minding would get a positive report. I'm a huge believer in Minding, and with the Darshaan in there on the 2nd Dam it's a cross that's worked really well w Galileo and very confident she'll get home.
Who's making a case for anything else ? Something will have to come out of the clouds on past form, not that it can't be done. |
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To answer your question, ffs, I think it's easy to build a value case around Diamonds Pour Moi at the current price. I'd have her a good 10pts shorter.
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The Oaks is Mindings to lose.11 lbs clear on RPR's and with a pedigree that suggests that 10 will be no problem and a very good chance of getting 12f.And odds aggainst still so surely a good value bet?
But a word of warning. Last year, Legatissimo looked assured of winning the Oaks having much the same profile. 9 lbs ahead of next best, classic winner with a pedigree suggesting 10f no problem and 12f probably. But, after looking like the winner, Legatissimo got outstayed by Qualify a 50/1 shot.Legatissimo won G1's over 8f and 10f subsequently but never ran again over 12f.Qualify got stuffed in the Irish Derby and never raced again. The key issues are then , will Minding be as effective over 12f as she is over 8f? And will she be over the effects of a hard race in the Irish 1000 Gns? Personally, I make her a clear odds on chance so I am on maximum. But there again, I was also on Legatissimo   |