Oaks 2016

Oh So Sharp mowed down Triptych up the stands side.

If the bolgers had a horse good enough to win the oaks, i'm wondering if they would have sold it to the new owner who i'm not sure they've sold a high class one too before. Gottae wonder.

I like twonky's case for Diamonds Pour Moi, plus the fact that her trainer stated she would appreciate a bit of dig in the ground in his Racing Post stable tour.

Not much form to go on, all circumstantial evidence, sire is Derby winner, trainer has a great record with middle distance fillies etc. so a lot of guesswork but 33/1 ew seems generous and so for that reason I'm in. Will be my only bet, bit underwhelmed by this renewal since So Mi Dar came out. Would love So Mi Dar to have a go at the King George but she probably won't!

Using Play Gal aa a marker Diamonds Pour Moi has little chance of finishing in front of Skiffle who is clearly the one going forward atm.

True, but races at different tracks over different distances plus Skiffle is 6/1 and DPM 33/1. It will be Skiffle's 3rd race in less than a month. I'm not a great one for collateral form at the best of times let alone for a whole host of unexposed 3yo fillies. My bet is more in hope than expectation obviously.

If you are a great 1 for collaterall form tho like dyno a horse 12 lenghts behind Skiffle got beat 10 lengths in a bath hcap earlier in the week off 74
The 2nd The Black Princess had been beat off 74 in a Nottingham hcap. Doesnt read as 2nd fav in The Oaks to me.

Lay till your eyes bleed.

At the risk of having egg on my face, I cannot see beyond Minding. It has double figs in hand on ratings, is trained by a trainer who has won more than 250 G1's so knows a thing or two and is being ridden by the best flat jockey in the world. And she is available at slight odds against with a run

To get her beat you are really banking on her not staying 12f, not liking the ground or having had a hard race and not being over it yet.

Will she stay? Well, her pedigree doesn't say she wont and it is about the best on show. She won at 8f as a 2yr old usually a good indicator for stamina.And her fractions show she she will get 10f no problem. Moore, not noted for his effusiveness, has been very strong on her. On paper,at the weights, she would be fav for the Derby.

The ground? Well she has won on good to soft and was just beaten by a good horse at the Curragh on soft ground. The ground is not a problem.

Too hard a race? Yes she had a hard race last time but she had an easy week last week and she had missed a prep gallop before the Curragh. I'm confident that AOB will have her spot on.

Trying to find an alternative? Well, good luck with that one. Skiffle did not win at Goodwood in classy fractions and she may not be suited by Epsom as she was unsuited by Goodwood. Anything else? No.

Maximum bet again for me. She's a 1/2 chance with me.

plenty available above evens,why u not taking it

I'm on at bigger prices

this really is looking a tight race now with a lot of average fillies in opposition bar of course minding who does look a top class filly

i have the same reservations about the distance for minding that others have, although like others she always looked a middle distance filly to me, the problem for me is i really don't see her improving much more than we have already seen and i'd say she was trained to win the english guineas unlike some of o'briens previous oaks winners that just kept progressing throughout that season, i may be wrong, we will soon find out...

the irish guineas for me she ran her race although just below her guineas win, i have to say i didn't think she found as much as seemed likely and really she just ran on at the same pace when moore really gave her the office and she was out battled by the other filly imo...she seemed a tad keen early on and i would say they wanted to teach her to settle with this race in mind but to me she is just a galloper and these tactics probably cost her that race as a consequence...i'm not sure i buy the fact they say she handles cut when clearly she likes fast ground, she showed she handled it at the curragh but i would argue she is better on better going

she is rightly a short price for this and it will be interesting to see how she is ridden with so many hold up fillies in this race, if she were mine she would make all or at least race on the gas as she is uncomplicated, will they want to risk riding her like this with the distance still an unknown i don't know but i think its her best chance and i don't really see a lot of pace here

skiffle the second favorite comes into this on the back of a good performance in the height of fashion and second favorite for this, a tad surprising on form but can only improve being as that was only her second start, she was given a nice ride from buick...

however i have my doubts about this race as she just got the perfect trip (excellent ride)and the race just collapsed around her from the 4 furlong pole with a lot of the fillies looking like they were finishing a 3 mile chase never mind a 1m2f race, they didn't appear to go that quickly but maybe some moderate fillies went faster than there ability actually allowed and between skiffle and the gosden filly who were both reigned back out of the early speed it payed to be held up imo, so some credit to play gal for plugging on for third but like at chester she didn't seem to get home

anyway i'm not knocking her and she may/should improve again but it looked a tough race so will be interesting to see how she backs up...anyway i'm not being harsh on her and everything seems to lead to improvement judging by her breeding and i would say she will be ok on the likely ground, so plenty of reasons to be positive in regards her chances, i'm just not to sure about her rating and i'm sure she has been handicapped around the solid 3rd horse...anyway i will just have to watch her win

i don't know why but turret rocks would and should appeal a bit here for bolger, she has only found the one paced over shorter so this trip should be right up her street, i am surprised she isn't second favorite and has been trained for this so 15/2 makes some appeal although the trainer tempers enthusiasm with his comments in regards the going, i hope he hasn't put us away but that is the only thing holding me back at the price tbh

somehow an improving sort for o'brien seemed to look beaten at chester before finally picking up the bridle in the final quarter mile, she looked a lazy type and maybe a tad green in that race which was run at a stop start gallop, she will like the ground and is still open to any amount of improvement, i liked the education moore gave her at chester and i have actually had a few quid ew, i am praying she will get some pace to run at and if not i hope hefferman rides her prominent, on form she has plenty to find but i get the feeling she has a lot of untapped potential and can see her making a mockery of what she has achieved so far

architecture an improving type just found seventh heaven to good at lingfield although i don't really get the price differential here as i thought seventh heaven didn't handle the track and took an age to get organized before ultimately being on top at the line, the palmer filly is entitled to improve on this being that was her first start back but o'briens is as well i take it they think the palmer filly will like the ground more and improve a lot for the run, i haven't discounted either in an open race

anyway i still think minding will take the beating and think the price which is actually about right on all known form, just isn't for me and i am just praying somehow gets pace to run at and if not, am hoping hefferman puts her on the speed, minding's best chance is to make it or at least be prominent and she has her chance, there isn't a lot between a lot of these and any number could step up, i'm disappointed the ground has gone for turret rocks as i think she was a likely type but will probably back 3/4 in which to balance the book but not a big race in which to get tucked into for me personally

No Even Song, the 2nd string of O'Brien something I have not envisaged, and no reason given either. Is O'Brien that confident the Oaks is Ballydoyle's for the taking and Minding will stay the trip that Even Song is not needed? Private gallop perhaps,...I hope so given Minding has so much in hand of the other runners. Minding is still odds against without Even Song, be ready for some professional money on race day I expect.

Harry C

I think that's a good summary although I'm not sure that I agree with your idea of tactics on Minding. She's won a Gns over a mile so she has the legs of these in any sprint finish unless of course Moore just sits in front and dictates at a nice slow gallop until the bottom of Tatt corner and then kicks on.The opposition will try to make it a good test as Skiffle for one looks a real stayer.

imp 23

The drift on Minding is down to longer price backers reducing their risk, I'm sure rather than for any form/fitness factor. Those pros who are not yet on will as you say most likely hit the price Fri am.

Minding has always come from behind to beat Ballydoyle, the only filly that could take Minding along in her races. But this was not possible as Ballydoyle missed her break on English 1000G.

I'm sure the pace will come from either of her stablemates or others as they would like to exploit any chink in Minding's stamina as soon as the race commences; I'd expect Minding to take it up no sooner than 2f from home, earlier if others are floundering or as late as possible, if necessary.

If Jet Setting hadnt run in the Irish 1000 guineas and Minding ran to the same level what price would she be now 2/5?

ye i see where your coming from sandown but essentially she is a galloper, so i see no reason in this particular set up with so many hold up fillies to get involved in a tactical race because she is such an uncomplicated filly...

i am not saying go out and make it a slog because that is against her chances of getting home and if she can get a lead great but i'm not sure where the pace is here and if she is dropped in she may race choke out after all she is going from well run mile races against faster horses to slower horses here in a staying race...they certainly tried to educate her in the irish classic but i'm not sure it worked for her and actually thought it worked against her as she only found the same pace when asked...i just think she is more a galloping type who can sustain that run rather than a quickener, i may be wrong and they may just drop her in and ride her for her turn of foot but i just think they actually don't have to complicate it against these horses she faces here, as they aren't much good

so we,ve gone from 1/2 to 2/5 and yet theres k,s available above evens,you,ll get 6/4 friday

I will be amazed if yer can get 6/4 as the opposition is dire and the gamble on Skiffle has been thro the prices

If 6/4 I'd not hesitate to top up to find out whether Minding will stay the trip in a field of on nine and rated many pounds above them; Minding is not a galloper either as proven in the English 1000G - she quickened and stayed on strongly all the way to the line.

Further ahead Minding is 10/1 for The Eclipse in July.

Minding has a turn of foot .At the Curragh both horses put down in last 2f. I don't agree that it was a lesser performance than at Nmkt. The only viable tactic to beat her is to make it a test of stamina.If 6/4 available I will be stepping in as well as many others

Put down fast split

so just to clarify she quickened in the guineas? i think you'll find she just kept on at the same pace throughout the race or that is certainly how i read her performance... in fact i think she has been the same her whole career...each to there own i suppose

and just to say that same pace is pretty quick

I just like her versatility - she can easily come from off the pace as per the fillies' mile (her best TF rated run), or bowl along close up -

The one thing is that Epsom is such a unique track you don't really know where nature will take you as you climb the hill, so I'd be happy to see her under Ryan Moore just travelling well, which she nearly always does.

Obv one of AO'Bs other duo will try to make it a 'sensible' pace, and if something tries to go on they'll get a burnout challenge for the lead.

I've covered up having been on pre-Guineas, but can still see the attraction at the price, 4/6 shot for me.

As an aside - I wonder if Minding has been tested for her genotype ? .. and if so what the chance of it not being CT ? (and Ballydoyle a CC)

Aidan and Jim are obviously very close, and I don't think Aidan would ever overlook any advantage,

Does that make the case for Minding stronger ??

I don't think there's any doubt that Minding can quicken, off both a slowish and fast pace. Thinking back to other fillies who achieved the Guineas/Oaks double, all the ones I can remember, Oh So Sharp, Kazzia, Salsabil and Midway Lady didn't win the Guineas like outstanding milers, they won like fillies who could possibly achieve more over a longer distance. In my view Minding showed a higher level of form in her Guineas. Not to say she can't win both, just a thought.

I can see Minding replicating the run of Diminuendo in the 1988 Oaks ie sitting handy until the 2f marker and then whoosh all the way to the line. Here's hoping!

Any result is fine by me as long as the race is not  cancelled.

geoff m 01 Jun 16 13:55 Joined: 23 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 8,667 | Blogger: geoff m's blog
If you are a great 1 for collaterall form tho like dyno a horse 12 lenghts behind Skiffle got beat 10 lengths in a bath hcap earlier in the week off 74
The 2nd The Black Princess had been beat off 74 in a Nottingham hcap. Doesnt read as 2nd fav in The Oaks to me.


Fair point, though the Listed race Taghrooda won before Epsom was shocking. Everything in behind got pumped.

Any reasons for Even Song not running...waiting for the Prix Diane?

Epsom :

Soft, Good to Soft in places (GoingStick: 5.9 (Home Straight Stands side 6.0 Far side 5.7 on Thursday at 06:30)
Updated @ 6:48am, Thu 02 Jun Rails: Rail will be out up to 4.5 yards from 1m to Winning Post, adding 19 yards to all races of 1m+, 12 yards to 7f races and 8 yards to 6f races.
Updated @ 2:26pm, Tue 31 May Stalls: 6f - Outside 1m 4f - Centre Remainder - Inside
Updated @ 11:30am, Sun 29 May Weather 22.2mm rain tuesday.5mm rain Wednesday. Outlook mainly dry from Thursday onwards but cloudy with temperatures of circa 17 degrees.
Updated @ 6:48am, Thu 02 Jun

Has to be a real possibility that they will come stands side and will it be first to the rail wins !!!!!

Hugo Palmer

The ground does dry out quickly at Epsom. It is like Newmarket in that there is a not a lot of soil on top of chalk.

I know there has been an inch of rain in the last 24 hours, with an unsettled forecast, but if the course avoids any more rain then it could easily be good to soft, good in places by Friday afternoon.

At Breakfast With The Stars that Tuesday morning all the jockeys reported the ground to be soft after heavy overnight rain, but by the Saturday it was good to firm. It is something to bear in mind.

Somehow 1pt e/w @ 9/1 with PP will do for me. Think she should be 2nd fav myself.

Minding is still odds against (12/10) but with £12k on the 'Lay' side.

I think the weather seems ok with only minimal rain, if at all, right into and after saturday; the present going is soft (according to RP) for tomorrow and saturday.

Some historical perspective on this race and looking at where Minding and her main rivals stand in the scheme of things

Going into the race the highest prior PB's (Personal Bests) in RPR's  for WINNERS since 1988 (28 runnings)

Salsabil (1990)   122
Minding        121
Diminuendo (1988) 121
Balanchine ((1994)120
Imagine (2001)    119
Sariska   (2009)  117
Reams o'Verse (97)117

Average (28 wnnrs)110
Turret Rocks   110
Skiffle        108
[b]Somehow      94


Highest rated losers since 2000
Shadayid (1991)    124
In The Groove(1990)121
Zahrat Dubai(1999) 119
Legatissimo (2015) 117
Marvellous (2014)  117
Petrushka(2000)    117
Blue Bunting(2011) 116
Midnight Line(1998)116
The Fugue(2012)    115
Yesterday (2003)   115
Aliysa 1989 ))D)   115
Sudden Love(1988)  115
Speciosa (2006)    114
Sundrop(2005)      114
All At Sea(1992)   114
Aqaarid (1995)     113
Simply perfect(2006)112
Bulaxie (1994)     112
Yawl (1993)        112
Akdarena (2010)    111
Rainbow View(2009) 111
Islington(2002)    111
Secret Gesture (2013)110

If Minding doesn't win she would be the highest rated loser since Shadayid in 1991.

Something of a shock you might say.

It is imperative not to disregard Moore's opinion on Minding regarding her stamina in the Epsom Oaks. This is what he's been reported to say. Moore: "She obviously has her stamina to prove. But I think she'll stay okay, and you've to look at the opposition when making those kind of assessments. "In my opinion she'll stay well enough in this company, as I think the form book tells you that she goes into the race as much the best filly and, to be honest, I'm struggling to see one I'm afraid."

The key phrase, no doubt is "stay well enough in this company". It is quite an endorsement for the Epsom Oaks but not riddled with confidence if the company was of a higher standard in another 12f race eg the King George and QE2 Stakes or the Arc.

Shadayid is an interesting comparison. She won her Guineas impressively and started even money for the Oaks. Her stamina wasn't guaranteed but most people thought she'd have enough to beat the opposition. I backed her ante post for the Guineas but stood to win more if she won the Oaks. In the even she was disappointing and finished a well beaten third. The conclusion was she didn't stay. I agreed with this at the time even though beforehand I had been confident she would. I remember backing her afterwards when dropped back to a mile, she ran okay but was never quite the same filly she'd been in the spring and my Guineas profit ended up back with the bookies. Maybe Minding will hold her Guineas form better than she did, if she does then she's almost certainly going to win tomorrow, but it's not guaranteed that she will and that's more of an issue for me than her stamina.

*In the event

Seventh Heaven for me.

Minding may well be more than good enough but 2 doubts are stamna - she is not bred to stay 12, and a recent very hard race in a bog where she was just outstayed.

Not sure about the merits of the others but Seventh Heaven ran on well to win over 11 furlongs in a recognised Oaks trial. She seems to stay and is still a reasonable price. She will like the going. The course may prove interesting as she seemed to dislike the camber at Lingfield but you can't have everything.

sir tom has plumped for DPM

damon hills brother going a standout earhole on the favourite avaiable from 9am

When thinking about Derby and Oaks the first thing that pops into my head is.."12f 12f 12f".
  I cannot bet Minding at 5/4 with so many negatives around her,especially having had two massive runs in two guineas.She's used to travelling at high speed in Guineas races.Suddenly its 12f pace,could pull more than John Travolta in Saturday Night Fever.First thing I'll look for is whether she settles.
The going is deciding factor now for me.Stamina sapping going then it has to be Somehow.Looks like a proper ease in the ground filly.Only just ground it out at Chester...showed no gears,was scrubbed along with that bit of knee,stayed on well and just got there and stayed on strongly .No doubts about the trip for Somehow.The Chester form didn't work out well in the Goodwood Listed race where Skiffle reeled in The Black Princess.Given good going I'll go for Skiffle.

generally i like to see 21 to 35 day break in middle distance races . i think legatssimmo did the same as minding and maybe too good . if the ground is testing though shes eyeballs out 13 days ago . but generally when they run em quick its because they took the race well and are in good form .

Beckett in good form (8 of last 9 runners won or placed)

However last race form of DPM badly devalued by runs of the second (Moorside, beaten over 7 lengths in a maiden on Monday) and the fourth (Dessertoflife, beaten 24l in eigth in Skiffles race)

Won't be touching unless plenty of late cash for it

For Skiffle to win they'd need to be really adventurous, and have run a pacemaker who would make it a real test.

As is, tactically there isn't a lot of pace, and those who are likely to go on - the two O'Brien runners and DPM look well held.

Appleby says he'd be thrilled with a place, so likely Skiffle will be held up, and that will prob run her into a place all right, now that the ground is on the easy side and Turret Rocks' chance has gone.

But Minding will win this.

Backed Minding win and Turret Rocks each way.

Same as Feltfair but layed Skiffle on top which will quadrouple the pain if successfull.

Its interesting that people are saying that there is a doubt about Mindings's stamina and none about Skiffle's but then you look at their Dosage profiles and there is virtually no difference. Somehow has the same profile. Only Turret Rocks looks doubtful for 12f on Dosage profile.

Minding  DI 1.00  CD 0.15
Skiffle     1.00     0.13
Somehow     1.06     0.13
T.Rocks     1.67     0.46

The Dosage Theory has its knockers but its a reasonable attempt to quantify breeding in terms of class, speed and stamina and whilst not without failures it has had considerable success.

Skiffle and Somehow are winners for me, preferences for the first named.

slow times first two races,its slow going.Somehow should relish it,

Big money coming in for Minding now, pro money no doubt, and likely to start odds-on.

Dunno but get a feeling Minding will finish second to some unlikely improver / dark horse.

at 1m 2f I will be laying Minding small at 1.2 if it ever reaches that.

if it stays in this ground, Minding will win easily enough.  value lay on the basis AOB 'doesn't know' if Minding will stay

based on Bolger's comments surely Turret Rocks will make sure there's a proper gallop?

The Money on Harlequeen is rdiculous. something smells : 50-1 to 10-1

GIG

You're an eternal optimist, but hope you're wrong despite every runner is a winner for me. Minding deserves to win after the unfortunate incident with the stalls at the Curragh last time.

Sorry, I meant pessimist. Harlequeen is 25 here.

As a fellow asian would say, using a famous proverb, Throw a lucky man in the sea, and he will come up with a fish in his mouth.

will lay Minding hard race very recently and doubtful stayer

yah, harlequeen gone out again.  false movements

Jun 3, 2016 -- 10:27AM, A_T wrote:

will lay Minding hard race very recently and doubtful stayer

too big to lay at 2.0 AT

great horse

Seemed to stay ok

great horse great jockey

My Indian matey is back!

brilliant filly

any other jock would have screwed that up.

hope you didn't lay big as you say  at 2.0 AT

I don't know so much about a great ride. The horse got Moore out of trouble. He chose to go through horses,no luck, forced back to last.Had 6 lngths to make up. Good job she stayed well.

A very rough passage but a very good filly - her class got her home. Will she go to the Irish Oaks or Eclispe? I doubt the former though.

UAR will be shorter tomorrow with Minding winning I'm sure of that.

yah, a great ride out of trouble .  didn't have to do much as you say

Minding was trading at 3.5+ in running when her path was blocked. Great horse but the jockey redeemed himself for choosing to stick to the rails.

did AOB say anything about his derby runners after the race?

Imagine if Joseph had done that :D

GIG - he said Idaho will relish the conditions *




* not really

should of done the guineas double + oaks. unlucky with the rain

GIG - he said Idaho will relish the conditions *
 

AOB said he wasn't sure if Minding would stay. So cleary that was a load of BS

Agree with Sandown, the filly got him out of trouble, well done backers.

very good filly terrific performance after getting boxed in

That must be one of the worst Oaks fields ever (except the winner).
Won by showing her daylight.

well done Minding backers.

vwd winners she is a special filly for sure

The slow pace, a small field after being boxed and enormous talent won Minding the race; a very well deserved winner after all I say.

Moore must have felt mightily relieved he won in the end - Minding got him out of jail!

Get on So Mi Dar for the Irish Oaks. She's 3/1 and 4/1 with S**bet and Boy respectively. Even Song is that race bound but not Minding.

has she fully recovered and a cert to run?

I'd have hope so by next month if not already - it wasn't an injury but lameness.

Minding is 1/2 and 2/5 with those two firms. I heard Lydia on RacingUK that Minding will have a holiday and Even Song is Irish Oaks bound and Minding is not. I don't think the two firms have cottoned on to that yet.

Minding 1/2
SMD 4/1
Architecture 5/1
Even Song 10/1

sounds like Minding is being saved the Arc or something

I've backed Minding for the Eclipse (10f) and The Arc at 10/1 and 25/1 respectively post English 1000G. I thought it unlikely Minding would take on So Mi Dar (SMD) in the Irish Oaks so soon after the two Guineases and Epsom. I believe Minding would have beaten Architecture by a street given a smoother passage. Minding won well today despite a horrid passage nonetheless in the absence of SMD.

I think Minding is being aimed for the Arc in the Autumn given the generous weight allowance, no Golden Horn and a substandard juvenile colts unless of course UAR scoots home tomorrow by one furlong to confound all his critics.

minding goes for st ledger according to the lads

unfinnished business from camelot

one of aiden's 5 is bound to run well tomorrow, then that will probably be fav for the st leger like most years.

No financial gain in the St Leger for Minding hence a non starter.

hard to say where Minding will go next,

Ballydoyle still to be unleashed - though I expect she'll be saved for the 1m programme - Coronation, Nassau, etc.. 


Minding sure to have a rest now anyway, and as for Leger :D ... I wouldn't dismiss it completely - that piece of history ... but what a waste

I imagine, Eclipse, International, Irish Champion, Champion, Arc all under consideration - preference for 1m2f

They had to make it a crawl today, and though she was much the best anyway, up against the horses she won't get that luxury

The Leger is a big race in this context now, Vincent O'Brien had his Nijinsky and that statue takes pride of place at Ballydoyle,

There is a huge emotional urge to give it a match

Finally, obviously, Minding is Coolmore through and through and she'll be bred from now - so the negative implications of a Leger winning horse are negated. That said, they do seem to have a strong bunch of horses to land that Classic ... interesting one

Postponed will win the Arc by a mile if entered and Harzand will be a massive fav if there is soft ground for the leger.  Given how negative USAR was ridden today , would he probably stick to 1m 4f?

Minding has drifted from 4/7 to 6/4 jt 'fav' with Even Song who has come in from 5/1 for the Irish Oaks, with So Mi Dar out to 5/1 with Betfair. The dogs are barking again.

Minding has continued to drift here because of the support for Even Song, and So Mi Dar (SMD) has been shortened by bookies today - has anyone heard any more about her well-being lately? If SMD does make the Irish Derby the game is on against Even Song for sure.

Apparently, So Mi Dar will not make the Irish Oaks next month so watch your bets despite bookies shortening her today, if true, disgraceful and shameful on the bookies I say.

She's not even entered for the Nassau Stakes at the end of July but is entered for the Darley Yorkshire Oaks on 18th Aug at York.

Regards So Mi Dar, Simon Marsh, the manager of the owner of So Mi Dar sid: So Mi Dar is taking her time to recover from the setback that ruled her out of Epsom and unfortunately won't be ready in time for the Irish Oaks.

That's it, I've done my dosh....again!

Charlton2005 22 May 16 14:02 Joined: 25 Aug 05 | Topic/replies: 4,921 | Blogger: Charlton2005's blog
lewisham ranger
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02 May 16 09:25 Joined: 08 Aug 02 | Topic/replies: 1,004 | Blogger: lewisham ranger's blog
The way Minding blew the 1000 guineas apart has basically made any oaks trials redundant now. If she lines up at Epsom I don't see how they can get her beat.

shrewd

Yes you're right it was