Ah right, see your point about the trip rather than the ground, although his Dante form wasn't too shabby.

one hell of a strike rate punkle

hang in there - you have been patient and it is clearly turning...i wait with baited breath for your next prediction, you have always been good on weather forecasts, it is just a shame there isn't more markets, we'd all be rich

hope so.

but it will cloud the whole race for me.

he is the one id be interested in but the fact he had a set back probably means this is a bit much of an ask .....

with a decent prep he is the one to beat imo

I hope for the sake of the race Free Eagle is a confirmed runner this weekend, if he is JH should be at least 2/1.

Good to Soft going forecast so I can see Weld ducking it with Free Eagle - he has had two hard races in the last 6 weeks.

O'Brien making all the right noises about Found running but Ladbrokes have been top price over the weekend which is a bit worrying - still took some 8/1 e/w though. Bound to be a non runner now.

Excellent news.

Looking at results over the last few years of races between 10f and 12f when the stalls have been positioned low results look entirely random regarding the draw.

If there's no pace in the race & stuck wide virtually impossible to win round there. Some jockeys have been able to push forward from the start, from a wide draw, then dictate the pace. Truly run, especially a G1 at even fractions, very hard to be posted wide round the bend and go on to win.

I would guess connections of Elm Park are waiting to see what Gleneagles does before committing to QEII or Champion Stakes. Reckon it'll be the QEII

surely this found filly is one of the most overrated horses in training, I will probably eat my words after saturday but I just don't get what she's done to keep hyping her up like this.

I don't see the problem with the ground for Jack Hobbs. He did ok over the summer when the ground was riding quick. Now it's autumn ground on a stiff track so should be ideal.

The fact he stays further than 1 mile two is surely a bonus. The opposition doesn't look that great. If anything he should probably be odds on, not 3-1.

i was thinking you had a bookie offering you 3/1 and i was going to say fill your boots

I 'hyped up' Found at 14/1 becuase I felt it was a rick - she is now 5/1 or less so I have already been proved right win lose or draw, and I am quite happy with my position.

What has she done? Other than being a much classier 2 year old than Jack Hobbs, in the Irish Champion she finished just as close to Golden Horn as Jack Hobbs has ever done, and while it's impossible to be sure I felt she would have been right in the mix for the places in the Arc with a better passage.

Jack Hobbs has two perfectly decent runs behind Golden Horn to his name (though no better than Found's) and beaten a very ordinary Irish Derby field doing all his best work at the finish and then won an egg and spoon race at Kempton. In his favour is that he has been laid out for this where as Found has run in the two highest quality races of the entire season in the last 6 weeks - though as I pointed out straight away she didn't appear have a hard race in the Arc, and comments from Moore and O'Brien suggest they feel likewise.

I'm not saying Jack Hobbs won't hack up so don't let me put you off lumping on at 11/8.

Draw  W – R      %
1     4 – 33     12.1
2     1 – 32     3.1
3     2 – 33     6.1
4     2 – 33     6.1
5     4 – 32     6.1
6     2 – 33     6.1
7     7 – 34     20.6
8     2 – 31     9.7
9     3 – 33     9.1
10    3 – 31     9.7
11    1 – 29     3.4
12    2 – 21     9.5
13    0 - 15     0
14    0 - 13     0
15    2 - 11     18.2
16    0 - 7      0

These are the figures from 2008 till now but limited to 10f races.

Johnny, the reason I used 10-12f originally was for a larger sample size, as the amount of 10f races alone with runners above 12 was so small a sample to be meaningless. I acknowledge the point though that 12f gives a bit more time. These figures include all classes of race but are largely made up of handicap races, which are known to be more competitive than a typical Gp1 so provide a better reflection of the draw effect.

I take your point about what can happen if the pace is slow, but we don't know for sure what the pace will be. Going off past Champion Stakes races and the seemingly competitive nature of this renewal I'd expect a decent pace, but that can only be an educated guess. If there is a slow pace how do we know one of the jockeys drawn wide won't do a Dettori? A horse drawn on the inside could be dropped in and struggle to get a clear run, as happened with The Grey Gatsby over this c&d.

The upshot of all this is how does a punter incorporate any of this information into their tissue price or the price they're willing to back a runner at? Personally I don't think it's worth the effort of trying, as I believe the results will roughly be swings and roundabouts. Maybe I'm just too lazy though and good luck to anyone who has it figured

Other than in massive field handicaps I've always found the round course at Ascot (1m-2m) to be one of the fairest in the country - can't think of many hard luck stories in any of the major group 1's down the years.

The straight course since the re-development has become a nightmare.

I agree about the bad ground problem but other than that I've liked the switch to Ascot and Champions Day as I think it's elevated the race, which was needed.

For me Fig, the unpredictable nature of that 10f at Ascot, the importance of tactics/pace in the outcome, risk of traffic trouble and the impact of that bend puts me off getting heavily involved.

Yes I think that's the most sensible approach, to take a broad view of the whole race if you view it as more unpredictable than usual, rather than try to weigh up the pros and cons individually.

It's a huge step up but I'm interested to see what Racing History can do. Think he'll be winning Group 1s next year.

I must admit that with the publication of the draw, despite all I said before, I've now switched to found.

Given an even pace, wider is likely to prove a harder obstacle to overcome than being on the inside. I could list many horses that ran in R.Ascot's races over 10-12f back in the summer who had hard luck stories. You see so many messy races round there; far more than clean ones.

Not that many Gp1s over middle distances are run at a hectic gallop from the gate these days. Most jockeys with a chance don't want to make the running, they take a pull early hoping something else will give them cover, so the chances are there will probably be nothing to stop Buick directly following his pacemaker from the start and obtaining a better position. I don't know if that's what Gosden is implying as it's a bit confusing when he goes on to say he'll leave the tactics to Buick. I would've thought if he was that concerned about the draw he'd have a plan A if the early pace allows it.