Jack Hobbs 5/1 Champion Stakes

Was 5/1 available this morning? 7/2 top price now.

took 7/1 ew yesterday morning. Race looks like badly cutting up, not sure FE is Arc bound though.

Yeah 5/1 was still available on Bet365 this morning, that's where my money went. I'm thinking Free Eagle may be Champion Stakes bound also now. Time Test may run if the race cuts up badly but I'm sure there's been chat of him heading to America.

Fair play to the two of you. Nice prices. Still tempted st 7/2 tbh.

Would be lying if I said I'm not tempted also. Realistically if it's going to cut up majorly you're looking at a potential 2 horse race between Jack Hobbs and Postponed. However, it's looking likely Free Eagle may take his chance and 50/50 Time Test. Having said that, Weld has stated on more than one occasion that the aim for the season was Irish Champion Stakes followed by the Arc. With the drying ground forecasted in France, surely everything is set up nicely for him to take his chance over there!

Fabre is running Vadamos who hosed up in a Group 2 in Germany last time out.

And although I have backed JH, it was only due to the fact the race looked like falling apart. Not sure 10f will play to his strengths unless it's soft, but even then it is being assumed he handles soft based on his breeding.

I believe there is a 13 day gap between the Arc and Champion stakes this year, so there is every possibility that one from the Arc could run in this- given her mid-season break, I can definitely see Found running in this after coming up short in the Arc over 12f, and she acts on any ground. There is one stat that might be significant- 8 of 10 winners had won over 10f. Jack Hobbs has but that was as a 2yo and I will have to hope kincsem will help me on that score. sintonian mate- 7/1 E/W yesterday was a shrewd move, moreover, the noting of Vadamos’s possible participation, considering Monsieur Fabre’s comments, makes this far from a 2/3 horse race.

Fair enough, looking like a better contest than I imagined then. I'm still happy enough to take Jack Hobbs. The only horse I would like to avoid is Free Eagle as I am a big fan of the horse and would be a huge danger if he gets his ground. Still can't see why he won't head to the Arc now the ground is drying though, as I said before, it has been the target apparently.

a shame jack hobbs isnt running in the arc , by the look of things , i thought he would win it . i would like to see limato contest the breeders cup mile is that under consideration ? a tight mile and his acceleration i think he would win that

i couldnt have solow or arod . muhaarar  and limato yes  . got to be the right type for this .the other two could win the turf but the tight round mile would be too short for galloping types .

Candy said he won't run her over a mile until next season.

Him**

Big run Postponed- Darley tomfoolery

Postponed will not make his debut for Roger Varian on Champions Day after connections decided to sidestep the Group 1 Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot on October 17. A campaign plan is yet to emerge for the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner since he was moved from Varian's fellow Newmarket trainer Luca Cumani and ruled out of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe following victory in the Prix Foy at Longchamp last month. The Champion Stakes at Ascot is no longer an option as he was taken out of the £1.3million race at Wednesday's scratching stage.

Cant believe how well this is cutting up for Jack Hobbs.

Such a shame that such a prestigious race will have so few class horse in the field, all the same.

I might be remembering the wrong trainer with this but I think it was Vincent O'Brien who said something along the lines of when it gets near the end of the season and you watch a horse do an impressive piece of work on the gallops you never know if that's the last good performance you'll get from it.

Wrong thread

THE challenge to Treve's Arc hat-trick bid was strengthened on Wednesday when Dermot Weld signalled his intention to send Free Eagle to Longchamp as the Paris sunshine continued to encourage connections of horses requiring good ground for Sunday's showpiece.

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Longchamp Sunday card
With money continuing to come for Golden Horn - expected to be one of three supplemented runners on Thursday morning - Betway went 11-10 about Treve adding to her two previous successes, the first offer of odds against from any firm since Criquette Head-Maarek's wondermare strolled to a six-length success in the Prix Vermeille last month.

Weld, who has been watching the weather while mulling over Free Eagle's participation in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, indicated the Galileo colt is likely to take his chance.

Weld said: "It's looking likely Free Eagle will run in the Arc. He's very well and I'm very happy with him. We don't have to make a final decision until early on Friday morning but it's looking like he will run."

Free Eagle, who will be tackling a mile and a half for the first time, won the Group 1 Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and, on his most recent start at Leopardstown, finished third in the Qipco Irish Champion Stakes in which he was badly hampered when the winner, Golden Horn, veered to the right inside the final furlong and bumped him.

What price Jack Hobbs if this happens, and Golden Horn gets removed from the market?! Sub 2/1?

Still time for Arc also-rans to run at Ascot.

sintonian
01 Oct 15 21:05

Still time for Arc also-rans to run at Ascot.


If Found runs (hardly had a race today) then she is a stellar bet @ 14/1 imo.

he might fall a bit short of a few but iv'e had a few £s ew on THE CORCICAN @ 12-1 in this,still a lightly raced 4yo who's fast improving.

bit unlucky at royal ascot behind free eagle, and should have won at goodwood before winning comfortably at newbury beating sky hunter and eagle top.

seems to handle most ground conditions and if the race cuts up might at least reach a place.

Any ideas who else may run after the Arc today?

Sintonian -

I could see the George Strawbridge’s (Ascot/ 5-32/16% /3-14  4yo+) filly We Are making the trip alongside QEII stablemate Solow after her performance today finishing well after being given a lot to do. She is best price 25/1 with the bookies and there is a few quid on here at 40+ but that form doesn’t necessarily draw me in. I think it is odds-on Found will run given her relatively easy race today but she is the obvious one, not that I fancy her to win. I think the problem here will be the anticipated ground and the clement weather we are having but surely that must change soon, in which case Intilaaq, Time Test and The Corsican are too risky for me. The fact that none of these have won or been placed in a Group 1 puts me off them anyway, likewise the very highly rated Vadamos .  You already have a good E/W bet on the favourite; I wouldn’t bother looking elsewhere mate.

hope "THE CORSICAN" runs better than i spell.

Of Corsican knot in wood!

The champion stakes looks a very tricky proposition outside of JH, so many of the market leaders ex him are not likely to run, most bookmakers have free eagle, Golden Horn, Found, Eagle top, Cirrus, Tapestry etc prominent and yet none can be more than 20% likely to run. If timetest was a certain entry he would be be of interest, i wish Legatissimo was entered as I think she would have a great chance.

Elm park might also be one if it was going to be soft, especially as it could be a small field and he will be a decent e/w price

Jack Hobbs now a best price 7/4.

As was the case with the Arc the weather forecast for the 10 days leading up to the meeting is totally dry so good or faster ground looks likely - as with Treve I feel this is against Jack Hobbs and in favour of some of his main rivals.
I wonder if Free Eagle may take his chance - he should have been aimed at this all along as he was never going to stay 1m4f.

Jack Hobbs' connections may prefer easier going for is welfare but his runs in the Derby and Irish Derby both came on ground described as good to firm and that was backed up by the clock. Wouldn't they be his two best runs in the formbook?

*his welfare

Gleaneagles may run if it is good or better?

Going to have a saver on Free Eagle anyway, no way is he 8/1 + if he runs, would deserve to be shorter than JH in my book.

But with all due respect Figgis you said (and keep saying) the same sort of thing about Treve on the Arc thread, whereas as I, 10 days before the race, said the ground drying would be detrimental to her chance and favourable to her main rivals - in particular Golden Horn and Flinthsire.


Those two runs you mention were over 1m4f which he seems to relish being a proper galloper - 10f on fastish ground is a different kettle of fish. He will need to run the finish out of his rivals (assuming Free Eagle, Time Test, Intilaaq, Found etc turn up). He might well be capable of doing that but at 7/4 right now he is a shocking price, just as Treve at Evens was in the Arc. He should be about 11/4 imo - so still favourite and the most likely winner and those people who have got 5/1+ on him are obviously in a great position, especiually if it cuts up really badly which is still quite possible.

But if Dermot Weld hadn't bottled it and had saved Free Eagle for this I'd have made him the clear favourite on good or better going.

His price is a separate argument. I just don't see any evidence why "good or faster" ground would be "against" him, as he has no stronger form on anything slower than good.

In betting the price is everything as far as I am concerned.

Faster going is 'against him' because soft ground would not be a hindrance to him but would negate his main rivals, who probably wouldn't even run,  if you were the owner and could pick the going right now what would you choose - good to soft, soft in places? I'd still make him favourite but from a value point of view it's the Treve Arc situation all over again.

There is more chance of me lining up over 10f than Gleneagles. It never was going to happen and it certainly never will now. If he does run again (if somehow the ground is suitable) he will be lining up over a mile vs Solow. Therefore he doesn't even come into my head when backing JH.

Price is vital but I've not said he's value for his price or not. As sintonian said a while back, I just don't see that he's ever run on anything close to soft ground in his career to make any judgement on that.

Fair enough - but I base everything I do on price and 'perceived value'.

Just like in the Arc thread my argument (at the current prices) was just that the weather forecast (if correct) means the opposition may well be stronger (both numerically and in quality) than the market is currently anticipating. And that as a proven 12f horse he will be most vulnerable to his 10f rivals if the going is quick.

i think you have made your point about being right about the forecast in the arc unclepunkle...

well done you were right (so were others) and if you are right here, you would be right about a 4/7 shot, so well done again in advance

you must of made fortunes on the straight forecast by the way in the arc paid a whopping 71/1 so well done for that as well

Ah right, see your point about the trip rather than the ground, although his Dante form wasn't too shabby.

Thanks Harry -  though I didn't make quite as much as when I backed Sprinter Sacre antepost for the Arkle instead of Peddlers Cross.

one hell of a strike rate punkle

They are my only two winners in the last 5 years though Harry.

hang in there - you have been patient and it is clearly turning...i wait with baited breath for your next prediction, you have always been good on weather forecasts, it is just a shame there isn't more markets, we'd all be rich

does anyone know if intilaaq is over his injury?

hope so.

but it will cloud the whole race for me.

he is the one id be interested in but the fact he had a set back probably means this is a bit much of an ask .....

with a decent prep he is the one to beat imo

O'Brien suggesting Found may run - though of course Coolmore are a total nightmare when it come to race plans.

But if she runs I'd have her shorter than Jack Hobbs in my tissue so have had to take some 13/1 on here just in case. Will go in again if she is still a decent price after final decs.

I hope for the sake of the race Free Eagle is a confirmed runner this weekend, if he is JH should be at least 2/1.

I'd like to see Free Eagle and Found take part this weekend, if so, I think they both have a decent chance against Jack Hobbs' whose optimum distance, in my opinion, is at least 12f.

Good to Soft going forecast so I can see Weld ducking it with Free Eagle - he has had two hard races in the last 6 weeks.

O'Brien making all the right noises about Found running but Ladbrokes have been top price over the weekend which is a bit worrying - still took some 8/1 e/w though. Bound to be a non runner now.

Free eagle nr, found still in.

Excellent news.

Gosden knows which is why the Champion should never have been taken from Newmarket:

"The draw is key, we will all be hoping to be drawn between one and eight as it is very important over this trip at Ascot. He won over a mile and a quarter at Sandown in April, but he was still green and he appeared a little lost in the Dante. I feel he is happy over both 1m2f and 1m4f and he has a lot of tactical speed. It's going to ride on the slow side of good, but that won't be a problem for him."

Looking at results over the last few years of races between 10f and 12f when the stalls have been positioned low results look entirely random regarding the draw.

That is in fields with double figure runners.

If there's no pace in the race & stuck wide virtually impossible to win round there. Some jockeys have been able to push forward from the start, from a wide draw, then dictate the pace. Truly run, especially a G1 at even fractions, very hard to be posted wide round the bend and go on to win.

Draw  W – R      %
1     3 – 60     5
2     4 – 60     6.7
3     3 – 61     4.9
4     5 – 59     8.5
5     7 – 57     12.3
6     2 – 59     3.4
7     8 – 59     13.6
8     9 – 60     15
9     4 – 57     7
10    4 – 55     7.3
11    3 – 52     5.8
12    4 – 36     11.1
13    0 – 22     0
14    1 – 23     4.3
15    3 – 18     16.7
16    1 – 15     6.7
17    1 – 8      12.5
18    0 – 9      0
19    0 – 7      0
20    1 –6       16.7
21    2 – 7      28.6
22    0 – 7      0

Average runners 12.4
Average draw    8.1

Those are the results from 2011 when stalls were placed low for races between 10-12f featuring 10 runners or more. Prior to that the stalls were high so not really relevant.

I don't see anything too worrying there. Obviously different pace scenarios can have a varying influence on the effects of the draw but you'd think a jockey with any pace awareness and tactical nous ought to be able to overcome what may seem a less than ideal draw over this track and trip.

I would guess connections of Elm Park are waiting to see what Gleneagles does before committing to QEII or Champion Stakes. Reckon it'll be the QEII

This is a G1 over 10f Fig so I think those figures aren't entirely indicative of the draw bias. I've seen enough races there to conclude wide draw disadvantaged. Generally a jockey has a real job on his hands posted wide, if he can't drop into the rail or close to the rail off a decent gallop and get some cover and then get a clean run through, or press forward and then move across to the rail without exerting too much energy in doing so.

There is often traffic trouble, especially when the pace is poor. Even fractions, G1 horses of similar ability, one drawn 1, the other drawn 12, the one in 12 forced wider, especially round the turn, logic dictates the one on the outside is having to travel further and will be unable to make up the lost ground, unless he is a far superior racehorse - a Frankel-type.

12f gives jockeys that bit more time and scope to try and overcome the wide draw. But often in those big R.Ascot handicaps, if there isn't a decent gallop, those drawn widest have very little chance if the jockey has decided to drop in behind.

surely this found filly is one of the most overrated horses in training, I will probably eat my words after saturday but I just don't get what she's done to keep hyping her up like this.

I don't see the problem with the ground for Jack Hobbs. He did ok over the summer when the ground was riding quick. Now it's autumn ground on a stiff track so should be ideal.

The fact he stays further than 1 mile two is surely a bonus. The opposition doesn't look that great. If anything he should probably be odds on, not 3-1.

sorry I realize he's close to evens I was just responding to what uncle puncle said.

i was thinking you had a bookie offering you 3/1 and i was going to say fill your boots

The two interesting outsiders from my perspective are Fascinating Rock @ 16/1 & Lightning Spear @ 33/1.

No idea if they're running, but think either could push Jack Hobbs close.

I 'hyped up' Found at 14/1 becuase I felt it was a rick - she is now 5/1 or less so I have already been proved right win lose or draw, and I am quite happy with my position.

What has she done? Other than being a much classier 2 year old than Jack Hobbs, in the Irish Champion she finished just as close to Golden Horn as Jack Hobbs has ever done, and while it's impossible to be sure I felt she would have been right in the mix for the places in the Arc with a better passage.

Jack Hobbs has two perfectly decent runs behind Golden Horn to his name (though no better than Found's) and beaten a very ordinary Irish Derby field doing all his best work at the finish and then won an egg and spoon race at Kempton. In his favour is that he has been laid out for this where as Found has run in the two highest quality races of the entire season in the last 6 weeks - though as I pointed out straight away she didn't appear have a hard race in the Arc, and comments from Moore and O'Brien suggest they feel likewise.

I'm not saying Jack Hobbs won't hack up so don't let me put you off lumping on at 11/8.

RIBBONS is underrated and overpriced IMHO.  Her form in Ireland with Legatissimo giving her 12lbs (WFA) on unsuitably quick ground is pretty smart, and she has ground and trip to suit here.  Frankie knows how to ride her now after the French debacle.

Draw  W – R      %
1     4 – 33     12.1
2     1 – 32     3.1
3     2 – 33     6.1
4     2 – 33     6.1
5     4 – 32     6.1
6     2 – 33     6.1
7     7 – 34     20.6
8     2 – 31     9.7
9     3 – 33     9.1
10    3 – 31     9.7
11    1 – 29     3.4
12    2 – 21     9.5
13    0 - 15     0
14    0 - 13     0
15    2 - 11     18.2
16    0 - 7      0

These are the figures from 2008 till now but limited to 10f races.

Johnny, the reason I used 10-12f originally was for a larger sample size, as the amount of 10f races alone with runners above 12 was so small a sample to be meaningless. I acknowledge the point though that 12f gives a bit more time. These figures include all classes of race but are largely made up of handicap races, which are known to be more competitive than a typical Gp1 so provide a better reflection of the draw effect.

I take your point about what can happen if the pace is slow, but we don't know for sure what the pace will be. Going off past Champion Stakes races and the seemingly competitive nature of this renewal I'd expect a decent pace, but that can only be an educated guess. If there is a slow pace how do we know one of the jockeys drawn wide won't do a Dettori? A horse drawn on the inside could be dropped in and struggle to get a clear run, as happened with The Grey Gatsby over this c&d.

The upshot of all this is how does a punter incorporate any of this information into their tissue price or the price they're willing to back a runner at? Personally I don't think it's worth the effort of trying, as I believe the results will roughly be swings and roundabouts. Maybe I'm just too lazy though and good luck to anyone who has it figured

For me Fig, the unpredictable nature of that 10f at Ascot, the importance of tactics/pace in the outcome, risk of traffic trouble and the impact of that bend puts me off getting heavily involved.

I'd be a lot more confident investing in the Champion on the Rowley Mile - see it as a lot fairer, which is why for me, as a championship race with such a lengthy history associated with HQ, it shouldn't have been moved.

Time of year also means we have seen horrible slogs on bad ground at Ascot. At least this year, it looks virtually guaranteed to be only on the slow side of good, one thing to be grateful for

Other than in massive field handicaps I've always found the round course at Ascot (1m-2m) to be one of the fairest in the country - can't think of many hard luck stories in any of the major group 1's down the years.

The straight course since the re-development has become a nightmare.

I must admit that I watched a replay of the arc and she did get an unlucky passage. If Ryan had been harder on her she surely would have finished closer.

Good luck with your bet.

I agree about the bad ground problem but other than that I've liked the switch to Ascot and Champions Day as I think it's elevated the race, which was needed.

For me Fig, the unpredictable nature of that 10f at Ascot, the importance of tactics/pace in the outcome, risk of traffic trouble and the impact of that bend puts me off getting heavily involved.

Yes I think that's the most sensible approach, to take a broad view of the whole race if you view it as more unpredictable than usual, rather than try to weigh up the pros and cons individually.

Still think that Jack Hobbs is the most likely winner but I am still dubious about his ability over 10 furlongs when his 2 best runs have been over 12.

It's a huge step up but I'm interested to see what Racing History can do. Think he'll be winning Group 1s next year.

Jack Hobbs drawn 12. Good luck backers. How about The Grey Gatsby this year, uncle, just for starters

I must admit that with the publication of the draw, despite all I said before, I've now switched to found.

TGG was drawn in stall 1 though johnny... so whilst I agree there can be hard luck stories over this trip, I think that can happen from any draw. I dont really see JH's wide draw as a negative myself.

Given an even pace, wider is likely to prove a harder obstacle to overcome than being on the inside. I could list many horses that ran in R.Ascot's races over 10-12f back in the summer who had hard luck stories. You see so many messy races round there; far more than clean ones.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/live.sd?event_id=12529624&category=0

"One blessing is that our pacemaker Maverick Wave is drawn next door to Jack Hobbs in 13. One things for sure Jack won't get boxed in! I'll leave the tactics to William Buick."

Gosden talking about Jack Hobbs' draw, along with a few stats.

Not that many Gp1s over middle distances are run at a hectic gallop from the gate these days. Most jockeys with a chance don't want to make the running, they take a pull early hoping something else will give them cover, so the chances are there will probably be nothing to stop Buick directly following his pacemaker from the start and obtaining a better position. I don't know if that's what Gosden is implying as it's a bit confusing when he goes on to say he'll leave the tactics to Buick. I would've thought if he was that concerned about the draw he'd have a plan A if the early pace allows it.

I agree Figgis. The draw may actually make things easier for Buick imo. Instead of being faced with the difficult choice of dropping him in or not from a lower draw, it might make perfect sense for the pacemaker to fly out of the gates and JH to track him so that he is handy throughout. This will also help make it a real test as his stamina is not in question.

Johnny... not disputing that there have been some messy races over the trip there... I just dont think the draw means you are more or less likely to encounter issues.

I always assumed JH would lead, or at least follow his pace maker and try to make it a real test - he was never going to be held up at the back and swoop late. I really don't see the draw doing any harm to his chances.

As for The Grey Gatsby - two words 'Jamie Spencer'.

surely only jack hobbs or found can win- the rest don't look good enough.

as jack hobbs is out in the carpark the cards are starting to fall for the filly.

The worry with Found is that the Arc was always the target on not this. That's all that puts me off her. Where as JH has actually been readied for this.

^ That's the worry so I've laid off my Found bets at 9/2 so have a nice big freebie on her. Hope she wins but I fear Jack Hobbs will prove too strong on the likely tacky going.

anyone for racing history? full brother won the same race, big step up though I guess.

Backed Found. Hope she`s got some energy left after Paris.

jack hobbs just didn't find much when asked to quicken. well done fascinating rock.

uncle mate you can't be happy with the ride by ryan there!

I will retract my earlier silly comments about found being overrated.

Was a poor ride though she got the breaks pretty well when she wanted them and wasn't exactly cutting into the winners lead close home so not using it as an excuse.

Just wish I'd kept things simple and just laid Jack Hobbs at around Evens - should have been at least 5/2 to the field.

Well done Thunder Road.

A no bet race for me but looking at the result the form looks pretty poor for a Gp1. It was run at a good pace so no excuse for such a compressed finish with some moderate runners finishing close behind. I'd say definitely the weakest renewal since the switch to Ascot, but I think that was how most people viewed it beforehand. No excuse for Jack Hobbs on the day, you couldn't say the drop back to 10f was the problem as he'd have been beaten even further if the race had continued. Nor could the ground be blamed as it was slower than when he'd shown his best previous form. Gosden mentioned the exertions from the early manoeuvre and while yes that can sometimes make a difference I don't reckon that was enough to cost him the race here. Still, I don't believe that was his best form today and he has probably just had enough for the season. Will be interesting to see if he goes on as a 4yo.

jack will probably win the coranation cup on derdy day, but not much else

FF, why do you think that?

dont see him as fast ground POW horse, coranation cup has to be a natural early season target, no probs c&d, not much else seems to turn up for this

as you know life then gets tough giving weight to the classy 3yos and dont see him as that good.

JH's best form has always been on faster than good, but whether they'll want to run him on it in future is another matter. I know there have been a few horses who were top notch at 3 and 4 but for years I've always thought the better 4yos are more often than not horses that were slightly below the very top as 3yos but made better than average improvement later. I don't like the saying 'sure to make a better 4yo', what it really means is they hope it will, but JH certainly has the potential with his size, he's still lightly raced having only 7 career starts and to my eyes he still races quite immaturely, so I'm hopeful.

Jack Hobbs had to expend a lot of energy making that forward move; he looked certain to petrol-out in the straight. Stayers' was the worst race of the day from a tactical/pace standpoint for those in behind. Clever Cookie horribly unlucky.

i think jack hobbs ran his race but they went plenty quick enough in front and the winner and the second benefited from a pace collapse in front

i never really understand why 1m4f horses like jack hobbs are ridden on the pace to bring stamina into play, when they are no different to any other horse ridden in that race... he payed for chasing the speed here and maybe a more conservative ride like he got in the epsom derby would of been more beneficial to his chances here...the draw obviously wasn't ideal but i have a feeling he would of been ridden on the pace anyway with that stamina issue the key... however when running a pace maker anyway, he didn't have to worry about pace to run at so his stamina would of come into play anyway

he is clearly no world beater though and just to be a tad harsh, he seems to only find the same pace when asked

a poor race for the money but like many champion stakes down the years, it isn't always a high class affair, we have just been very privileged in recent years with frankel and cirrus de aigles putting the race back on the map

Jac kpricked his ears just before the winner came past and I think he had plenty of energy left but he lacks the pace for 10 furlongs. I can see him as the best 12 furlong horse around next year. His sire improved a lot from 3 to 4.