Horse Antepost
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Looking more and more likely that he's going to miss the Arc, especially with the forecasted drying ground between now and Sunday.
So, having looked at the ante post list for the Champion Stakes at Ascot on the 17th October, he's surely going to just get shorter and shorter? Golden Horn and Free Eagle both look to be Arc bound, leaving possibly Postponed and Time Test. Let's face it Gleneagles won't be running in it.
So, having looked at the ante post list for the Champion Stakes at Ascot on the 17th October, he's surely going to just get shorter and shorter? Golden Horn and Free Eagle both look to be Arc bound, leaving possibly Postponed and Time Test. Let's face it Gleneagles won't be running in it.
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 96
|
By:
Was 5/1 available this morning? 7/2 top price now.
|
|
By:
took 7/1 ew yesterday morning. Race looks like badly cutting up, not sure FE is Arc bound though.
|
|
By:
Yeah 5/1 was still available on Bet365 this morning, that's where my money went. I'm thinking Free Eagle may be Champion Stakes bound also now. Time Test may run if the race cuts up badly but I'm sure there's been chat of him heading to America.
|
|
By:
Fair play to the two of you. Nice prices. Still tempted st 7/2 tbh.
|
|
By:
Would be lying if I said I'm not tempted also. Realistically if it's going to cut up majorly you're looking at a potential 2 horse race between Jack Hobbs and Postponed. However, it's looking likely Free Eagle may take his chance and 50/50 Time Test. Having said that, Weld has stated on more than one occasion that the aim for the season was Irish Champion Stakes followed by the Arc. With the drying ground forecasted in France, surely everything is set up nicely for him to take his chance over there!
|
|
By:
Fabre is running Vadamos who hosed up in a Group 2 in Germany last time out.
|
|
By:
And although I have backed JH, it was only due to the fact the race looked like falling apart. Not sure 10f will play to his strengths unless it's soft, but even then it is being assumed he handles soft based on his breeding.
|
|
By:
I believe there is a 13 day gap between the Arc and Champion stakes this year, so there is every possibility that one from the Arc could run in this- given her mid-season break, I can definitely see Found running in this after coming up short in the Arc over 12f, and she acts on any ground. There is one stat that might be significant- 8 of 10 winners had won over 10f. Jack Hobbs has but that was as a 2yo and I will have to hope kincsem will help me on that score. sintonian mate- 7/1 E/W yesterday was a shrewd move, moreover, the noting of Vadamos’s possible participation, considering Monsieur Fabre’s comments, makes this far from a 2/3 horse race.
|
|
By:
Fair enough, looking like a better contest than I imagined then. I'm still happy enough to take Jack Hobbs. The only horse I would like to avoid is Free Eagle as I am a big fan of the horse and would be a huge danger if he gets his ground. Still can't see why he won't head to the Arc now the ground is drying though, as I said before, it has been the target apparently.
|
|
By:
a shame jack hobbs isnt running in the arc , by the look of things , i thought he would win it . i would like to see limato contest the breeders cup mile is that under consideration ? a tight mile and his acceleration i think he would win that
|
|
By:
i couldnt have solow or arod . muhaarar and limato yes . got to be the right type for this .the other two could win the turf but the tight round mile would be too short for galloping types .
|
|
By:
Candy said he won't run her over a mile until next season.
|
|
By:
Him**
|
|
By:
Big run Postponed- Darley tomfoolery
Postponed will not make his debut for Roger Varian on Champions Day after connections decided to sidestep the Group 1 Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot on October 17. A campaign plan is yet to emerge for the King George VI And Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner since he was moved from Varian's fellow Newmarket trainer Luca Cumani and ruled out of the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe following victory in the Prix Foy at Longchamp last month. The Champion Stakes at Ascot is no longer an option as he was taken out of the £1.3million race at Wednesday's scratching stage. |
|
By:
Cant believe how well this is cutting up for Jack Hobbs.
Such a shame that such a prestigious race will have so few class horse in the field, all the same. |
|
By:
I might be remembering the wrong trainer with this but I think it was Vincent O'Brien who said something along the lines of when it gets near the end of the season and you watch a horse do an impressive piece of work on the gallops you never know if that's the last good performance you'll get from it.
|
|
By:
Wrong thread
 |
|
By:
THE challenge to Treve's Arc hat-trick bid was strengthened on Wednesday when Dermot Weld signalled his intention to send Free Eagle to Longchamp as the Paris sunshine continued to encourage connections of horses requiring good ground for Sunday's showpiece.
RELATED LINKS Longchamp Sunday card With money continuing to come for Golden Horn - expected to be one of three supplemented runners on Thursday morning - Betway went 11-10 about Treve adding to her two previous successes, the first offer of odds against from any firm since Criquette Head-Maarek's wondermare strolled to a six-length success in the Prix Vermeille last month. Weld, who has been watching the weather while mulling over Free Eagle's participation in the Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, indicated the Galileo colt is likely to take his chance. Weld said: "It's looking likely Free Eagle will run in the Arc. He's very well and I'm very happy with him. We don't have to make a final decision until early on Friday morning but it's looking like he will run." Free Eagle, who will be tackling a mile and a half for the first time, won the Group 1 Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot in June and, on his most recent start at Leopardstown, finished third in the Qipco Irish Champion Stakes in which he was badly hampered when the winner, Golden Horn, veered to the right inside the final furlong and bumped him. What price Jack Hobbs if this happens, and Golden Horn gets removed from the market?! Sub 2/1? |
|
By:
Still time for Arc also-rans to run at Ascot.
|
|
By:
sintonian
01 Oct 15 21:05 Still time for Arc also-rans to run at Ascot. If Found runs (hardly had a race today) then she is a stellar bet @ 14/1 imo. |
|
By:
he might fall a bit short of a few but iv'e had a few £s ew on THE CORCICAN @ 12-1 in this,still a lightly raced 4yo who's fast improving.
bit unlucky at royal ascot behind free eagle, and should have won at goodwood before winning comfortably at newbury beating sky hunter and eagle top. seems to handle most ground conditions and if the race cuts up might at least reach a place. |
|
By:
Any ideas who else may run after the Arc today?
|
|
By:
Sintonian -
I could see the George Strawbridge’s (Ascot/ 5-32/16% /3-14 4yo+) filly We Are making the trip alongside QEII stablemate Solow after her performance today finishing well after being given a lot to do. She is best price 25/1 with the bookies and there is a few quid on here at 40+ but that form doesn’t necessarily draw me in. I think it is odds-on Found will run given her relatively easy race today but she is the obvious one, not that I fancy her to win. I think the problem here will be the anticipated ground and the clement weather we are having but surely that must change soon, in which case Intilaaq, Time Test and The Corsican are too risky for me. The fact that none of these have won or been placed in a Group 1 puts me off them anyway, likewise the very highly rated Vadamos . You already have a good E/W bet on the favourite; I wouldn’t bother looking elsewhere mate. |
|
By:
hope "THE CORSICAN" runs better than i spell.
|
|
By:
Of Corsican knot in wood!
|
|
By:
The champion stakes looks a very tricky proposition outside of JH, so many of the market leaders ex him are not likely to run, most bookmakers have free eagle, Golden Horn, Found, Eagle top, Cirrus, Tapestry etc prominent and yet none can be more than 20% likely to run. If timetest was a certain entry he would be be of interest, i wish Legatissimo was entered as I think she would have a great chance.
|
|
By:
Elm park might also be one if it was going to be soft, especially as it could be a small field and he will be a decent e/w price
|
|
By:
Jack Hobbs now a best price 7/4.
|
|
By:
As was the case with the Arc the weather forecast for the 10 days leading up to the meeting is totally dry so good or faster ground looks likely - as with Treve I feel this is against Jack Hobbs and in favour of some of his main rivals.
I wonder if Free Eagle may take his chance - he should have been aimed at this all along as he was never going to stay 1m4f. |
|
By:
Jack Hobbs' connections may prefer easier going for is welfare but his runs in the Derby and Irish Derby both came on ground described as good to firm and that was backed up by the clock. Wouldn't they be his two best runs in the formbook?
|
|
By:
*his welfare
|
|
By:
Gleaneagles may run if it is good or better?
|
|
By:
Going to have a saver on Free Eagle anyway, no way is he 8/1 + if he runs, would deserve to be shorter than JH in my book.
|
|
By:
But with all due respect Figgis you said (and keep saying) the same sort of thing about Treve on the Arc thread, whereas as I, 10 days before the race, said the ground drying would be detrimental to her chance and favourable to her main rivals - in particular Golden Horn and Flinthsire.
 Those two runs you mention were over 1m4f which he seems to relish being a proper galloper - 10f on fastish ground is a different kettle of fish. He will need to run the finish out of his rivals (assuming Free Eagle, Time Test, Intilaaq, Found etc turn up). He might well be capable of doing that but at 7/4 right now he is a shocking price, just as Treve at Evens was in the Arc. He should be about 11/4 imo - so still favourite and the most likely winner and those people who have got 5/1+ on him are obviously in a great position, especiually if it cuts up really badly which is still quite possible. But if Dermot Weld hadn't bottled it and had saved Free Eagle for this I'd have made him the clear favourite on good or better going. |
|
By:
His price is a separate argument. I just don't see any evidence why "good or faster" ground would be "against" him, as he has no stronger form on anything slower than good.
|
|
By:
In betting the price is everything as far as I am concerned.
 Faster going is 'against him' because soft ground would not be a hindrance to him but would negate his main rivals, who probably wouldn't even run, if you were the owner and could pick the going right now what would you choose - good to soft, soft in places? I'd still make him favourite but from a value point of view it's the Treve Arc situation all over again.  |
|
By:
There is more chance of me lining up over 10f than Gleneagles. It never was going to happen and it certainly never will now. If he does run again (if somehow the ground is suitable) he will be lining up over a mile vs Solow. Therefore he doesn't even come into my head when backing JH.
|
|
By:
Price is vital but I've not said he's value for his price or not. As sintonian said a while back, I just don't see that he's ever run on anything close to soft ground in his career to make any judgement on that.
|
|
By:
Fair enough - but I base everything I do on price and 'perceived value'.
Just like in the Arc thread my argument (at the current prices) was just that the weather forecast (if correct) means the opposition may well be stronger (both numerically and in quality) than the market is currently anticipating. And that as a proven 12f horse he will be most vulnerable to his 10f rivals if the going is quick. |