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Dewhurst Stakes
Dewhurst Stakes
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I believe joseph said before his phoenix stakes win , that he had no doubt the AFB would turn out to be the best in that field if not that day ,but definitely next year . So from that one has to believe they viewed anything he did as a 2yo as a bonus , and if that is to be believed well just maybe (third time lucky) he will turn out to be the best they have had .
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I wouldn't take any notice when they say "he's the best we've ever had" !
They say it so many times it loses it's relevance, clearly there is some separate issue going on here, perhaps he will turn out to be the "best they've ever had" or perhaps he won't, but the fact they say it about any promising animal they have makes it rather farcical. |
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Hence why in this great game & sport of horse racing its always best to form your own opinions about who gd you rate them. One thing AOB is right about is that he is very gd indeed, i fully agree with that view, he is the best 2yo i have seen this season.
Whether he is the so called "best they have had" thing, means very little to me as a punter. Coolmore are a top racing & breeding outfit world wide, its their business to big up their stock, who wouldn't ? My View on A F B is that all going well from 2/3 he will win next yrs 2000gns, he looks the real deal to my eye. |
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For me, the 'very best' tag is important to me as a punter as it can often lead to a horse being priced lower than it otherwise would be, especially when the media and bookmakers start focussing on such things, although if these tags are going to be churned out every season then the impact may diminish. If we can believe these statements then we can say the prices are deserved, however we've seen that the track record hasn't been great so far and as yet AFB hasn't shown anything that would suggest he could be better than an average Guineas winner.
I doubt there are many punters around that would disagree AFB is the most likely Guineas winner at this stage, but it's all about the price. I can't see how 11/8 is a true price when the race is nearly 6 months away. We know that they don't trial their Guineas horses so assuming he's ready it's very likely he'll be going there without another run. Frankel started 1/2 on the day but that was a rare case. Looking at some short priced O'Brien runners, One Cool Cat started 15/8, George Washington 6/4, St Nicholas Abbey evens, Camelot 15/8. If we do get an impressive trial winner it's unlikely AFB would be any shorter than now. Even if the trials throw up a bunch of third raters I think it's unlikely AFB would go much lower than evens. Don't know if that would be of any interest to me but I'd rather be taking that when I know the horse is going to make the gig and what the conditions are than take 11/8 6 months away with setbacks a possibility. A silly price imo. |
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of course figgis, it's a crazy price. He won't run before the guineas and I'll be surprised if he doesn't start bigger than that on the day
you'll get an impressive newbury maiden winner, an impressive greenham winner, throw the craven stakes/free handicap into the mix, some impressive gallop in ireland or newmarket, some sexy horses from france and so on I can't recall a classic in recent years going into it where trial winners and other contenders don't get hyped up, there's very few boring build-ups to classics these days with the racing media being so extensive, so there's plenty of scope for his price to drift. even if there remains the possibility of the big coolmore battalions coming for him on the day |
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If that's the best on offer form wise and time wise will be one of the worst guineas ever,i've hardly got anything marked off as even half decent yet!
 Liked smash Williams lsst run open to loads of improvement but may only be a 7f horse but he will be almost certainly top class 3yr old over at least 7fs.. |
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I dont have to worry about the price A F B is now (backed him @ 14s ante-p)
Seems a few of you are down on the horse & think his price now is crazy, so you will all be laying plenty by now then??? And 1 of u is setting a new (early) record by stating that this will be one of the worst 2000gns ever?? in Oct  Get a grip ffs |
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It's a betting forum so price is vital to any discussion, it's not a Coolmore horse fanzine and I don't see why saying a price is stupid is "down on the horse"? No point in laying a badly priced 6/4 shot now and have wait for 6 months when there are plenty of others around before then.
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Think i said that some of you are down on the horse (&) think the price is now crazy.
My view is that A F B should now be a short priced fav for next yrs 2000gns. The only thing your right about (imo) is that @ 6/4 he is not now an ante-p bet with approx 7months to wait, thats just stating the obvious imo. As for the claim of there are plenty of badly priced 6/4 shots around before then, that comes across as a bit of trying to blow your own trumpet, gd luck with that  |
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My view is that A F B should now be a short priced fav for next yrs 2000gns.
thats just stating the obvious I should think most reasonably competent punters can find a few under priced 6/4 shots that they want to oppose before next May. |
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My view is there is no value in either backing or laying AFB (6/4) for next year's 2000G solely on the longevity of a possible return as one could achieve a similar 'value' with Jack Hobbs in the Champion Stakes; the existing uncertainties until the event, and I also believe Betfair does not settle until the event has taken place compound the issue further.
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topspeed in the weekender this week was lukewarm on the horse. Seemed to think while he posted tidy closing sectionals off a fairly sedate gallop, the overall impression was that he was still somewhat behind recent winter favorites of the guineas, like teofilo, new approach, etc who were a similar price going into the spring yet had achieved far more.
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