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lewisham ranger
12 Sep 15 13:26
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Date Joined: 08 Aug 02
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No two year old has impressed me as much since the mighty Frankel, ironically enough when he won on the same card....

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Replies: 76
By:
unclepuncle
When: 12 Sep 15 16:00
12/1 was a perfectly decent price (only 8/1 now), but can you trust Godolphins English opeartion to actually get a horse ready for the Guineas? I know Dawn Apporach won for them he was just a Jim Bolger horse running in their silks.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 12 Sep 15 16:43
yes they would be better off keeping it in newmarket over the winter, but almost certainly won't.
By:
Howellsy
When: 12 Sep 15 19:24
Very ordinary time in comparison to the later 7f race. Frankel broke the clock in his Donny romp.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 13 Sep 15 06:04
Frankel never did the clock in any of his 14 wins, the Doncaster time was 1m 24.83s, slow by 1.53s.

My favourite horse. It was actually this race that I thought he might be more than useful, I backed him in every subsequent race except the Greenham and travelled to UK on 4 occasions to watch him.
By:
cryoftruth
When: 13 Sep 15 07:09
The time may have been ordinary but he won so very easily he could clearly go a deal faster than that.

The 2 he beat are both rated by RPRs as being 100+ rated and he treated them like platers.

Only 2 runs had already a really good group 2 winner. He is obviously a group 1 horse with serious scope to go on from this.

7/1 on Betfair, given he is sure to go for the Dewhurst and unless it's a real bog win it, looks more than fair. I have been around long enough to have seen very short priced ante post Guineas favourites with less substance to their form than Emotionless.

I see comparisons with Frankel a bit unfair. He was undoubtedly the best horse I ever saw, and I remember as far back at Mill Reef and the Brigadeer. Secretariat would be the only other horse to compare to Frankel and with USA doping laws.... Comparing horses to Frankel is fun but fatuous. Emotionless may be a champion, he looks like champion 2yo. But Frankel was rated 148 at the end by Timeform. He could have given Goldn Horn and Treve a stone!
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 13 Sep 15 07:30
It's ridiculous to compare Emotionless and Frankel at this stage and as impressive as the former was yesterday and I feel he's a worthy ante-post favourite for the 2000, I would want 10's minimum, there's still several races in the 2015 calendar to show us more candidates.

I remember the BG/MR race well (they were actually due to meet over 10f later but MF got injured) and I think BG and Tudor Minstrel are the only horses who would have given Frankel a race over 8f.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 13 Sep 15 07:30
* MF = MR
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 13 Sep 15 07:56
Dewhurst could be interesting, especially if you get an impressive winner of the national stakes today

could potentially be emotionless vs airforce blue vs that Gosden beast which won on the Donny card on the friday, Tashweeq, I also thought that was very impressive because he swatted a good yardstick in Hallick who for me is also a very nice horse

Throw in horses like Herald the dawn, Recorder, Knife Edge who won at ascot recently, not to mention others, and I think this years crop of two year olds could be very good indeed
By:
Figgis
When: 13 Sep 15 08:02
Howellsy would be referring to the comparative time on the Doncaster card that day, which clock watchers seemed unanimous in saying was an outstanding time performance, rather than the bare time, which most people agree is meaningless where level of performance is concerned.
By:
Howellsy
When: 13 Sep 15 08:02
Andrew, you compute speed figures by comparing the times with other races on the card. I no longer have access to my 2010 figures sadly, but I recall awarding Frankel a huge one. Looking back at the results from that day, I may have overestimated it a bit, but even so there is no way Emotionless could be given anything more than a mediocre speed figure yesterday. Of course, I was very impressed with his performance in many ways, but he does have to prove he can do it off stronger early fractions. I hope he will do just that as I think it would be great if Godolphin finally had a top miler.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 13 Sep 15 08:18
Guys, I appreciate comparing times with races on the actual day is far better than comparing standard times, my initial post was in response to Howellsy stating Frankel did the clock ...... he didn't Wink

Changing the subject, let's hope that some of the Gosden and AOB big guns turn up to meet Emotionless in the Dewhurst.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 13 Sep 15 08:55
Any views on the National stakes today Figgis mate? I think Air Chief Marshall might be overpriced...
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 13 Sep 15 09:09
Time was ordinary but there was a fairly strong headwind yesterday and in the portland and the g2 7f race there was plenty of pace on and horses in behind were getting the benefit of cover from the wind. In the opener the pace was slower and they had no cover from the wind because of the smaller field and also tacked over to the stands side instead of running in a straight line. So plenty of excuses for the time being quite poor.
By:
Figgis
When: 13 Sep 15 09:20
Lewisham Ranger, I don't have a strong view on the race and wouldn't disagree with the market on the front two. I have Herald The Dawn as next best but personally I wasn't impressed with his performance last time. AFB is best on his Coventry run but I'm not sure what to make of the Phoenix Stakes, the comparative time was very slow for such an event and Buratino obviously didn't run to form. AFB looked extremely impressive to the eye but I don't know if he's improved or it was just so easy for him with Buratino below par. Hopefully a stronger pace should reveal more today but at the moment I don't have any of the runners as Guineas class so don't blame anyone looking to get the front two beaten but I'll be sitting this one out.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 13 Sep 15 09:27
Forgot to say the wind changed from a SW direction at 2pm to a more westerly one after 3pm so was a tricky day for doing speed figures really. I'd go with my visual impression that he looks a top class horse and I did give Ibn Malik quite a big figure when he won his maiden so with those 2 pulling well clear then it surely has to be a decent performance. Hopefully we'll see exactly how good he is next time.
By:
penzance
When: 13 Sep 15 10:09
6,7/1 for a race about 8 months away,
with Godolphin training him.Should be
that just to get there.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 13 Sep 15 10:35
Agreed penzance, that's the problem as even if you think this horse is the real deal that price is pretty awful especially in view of the connections. I'm afraid ante post betting looks dead these days, not that I've ever really been much of ante post punter anyhow but I'm sure the prices used to be a lot more generous than that.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 13 Sep 15 10:41
Thanks Figgis. At the moment backed Air force one with a saver on the O'Brien number two, but to be honest with you I'm tempted to switch to something else in the race, Final frontier has also impressed me so far with his battling qualities although it'll be a tough ask for him.

BTW do Godolphin still send their two year olds to Dubai for the winter? And if so, does anyone think the effect of sending young horses so far and back again might have an effect on their chances in the guineas.

I only ask because I noticed Gosden saying the other day how he was reluctant to send Jack Hobbs to France for a trial race, so soon before the Arc, which was why he preferred to run it at Kempton.

I think the worse thing that can happen is for Emotionless to win the Dewhurst and then they send it to the breeders cup, I can't recall any two year old running in the breeders cup and then going on to win a guineas.
By:
Figgis
When: 13 Sep 15 10:54
Stevie, thanks for the info about the wind change, as for me the collective signs from the first race just does not compute with a poor final time and I suspect strict comparisons will be misleading in this instance.
By:
bosra shame
When: 13 Sep 15 11:55
From memory, didn't Sky Lantern run unplaced in the Breeders Cup and go on to win the Guineas ?
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 13 Sep 15 12:09
Figgis, I still get a big figure for Limato though. Weather he is as good as that looks I don't know as he got plenty of cover behind a wall of horses whilst the leaders went too fast. But still it was quite some performance. Really we need weather stations at the track taking readings at the start of each race for it to be accurate. The weather station the met office used isn't that close to the track so a lot of time it's guesswork.
By:
Figgis
When: 13 Sep 15 12:32
SG, no I mean I just wouldn't use a strict comparison where the first race is concerned, as it looks out of step with the rest of the card to me. I don't believe the runners in the first race are that slow and I don't believe the poor final time can be entirely blamed on a slow early pace, even though a strict comparison would lead to that conclusion, as everything else about the race tells me they didn't go that much of a crawl.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 13 Sep 15 13:07
73.97 unofficial time for curragh opener, good to soft possibly. Not sure if that will suit fav in National stakes. Looks a tricky race to call now
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 13 Sep 15 15:20
Quite impresses by that Air Force Blue, seems to be progressing well and a mile on quicker ground should be ideal.
By:
penzance
When: 13 Sep 15 15:27
4s with some firms,need your head tested
if you take them odds.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 13 Sep 15 16:14
Interesting that Limato ran the final two furlongs almost two seconds quicker than Emotionless did and the final time was faster as well... perhaps I was getting carried away with the visual impression...however Limato has sprinter speed so maybe that's not so relevant, as Emotionless is going to be better over a mile

Be interesting class with him vs Air force blue in the Dewhurst anyway, assuming they both turn up... although Ballydoyle have a history of dodging these big clashes they might be tempted to go with this fellow.

He looks like a heavyweight of a horse and dwarfed his rivals today. Be interesting to see if he can do the same over the pond- reminds me a bit of Hawk Wing.

Emotionless also has that alpha male I'll dominate my rivals on the bridle sort of thing. When they clash, something's going to give.

Personally I'd favour the Godolphin horse despite my concerns about the slow time.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 13 Sep 15 16:37
Where did you get those sectionals from LR?
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 13 Sep 15 17:01
Just done some timings myself, not easy but yes does look a bit like pace collapsed in race and maybe Emotionless not as good as that looked at the time.
By:
lewisham ranger
When: 13 Sep 15 17:55
I just did it roughly, although I must admit that method is often hugely flawed as camera angles are inconsistent due to where they run on the track, although it does give you some idea I suppose.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 13 Sep 15 18:01
I clocked around 39s for the last 3f for Emotionless so it backs up what you say LR. The horses were finishing slowly in that race and I think the pace into that headwind strung them out. It does temper ones enthusiasm for that performance especially when compared to Limato sprinting clear. I'll reserve judgement now until his next race. cheers
By:
Figgis
When: 13 Sep 15 19:55
Surprised the Air Force Blue time was so much slower than the Moyglare, as I didn't notice them go much slower when watching. It's becoming another Gleneagles situation of not knowing how good he might be, but it does seem as though he's probably improved significantly since the Coventry.
By:
jedi sophie
When: 13 Sep 15 22:32
wouldnt give Treve a stone!!not round longchamp anyway...she is top drawer,as was Frankel.cant compare..
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 14 Sep 15 09:37
Figgis, timeform manual sectionals have 36.78 last 3f for Air Force Blue compared to 37.52 for Minding though that doesn't completely explain the time difference, I certainly felt watching they went quite a bit slower for the opening 2f in Air Force Blue's race. Perhaps that and some wind effects might explain it. At the moment I'm not seeing anything really jumping out as a good bet for the guineas. would be wanting double figures for both horses really. Perhaps somethimg else will come out. Any of the French ones look any good yet?
By:
Figgis
When: 14 Sep 15 11:21
I've not seen anything yet either, SG, but AFB and Smash Williams are the ones I'm keeping an open mind about so far.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 14 Sep 15 11:53
I'd forgotten about SW, yes gave him 2 decent figures now, good debut figure followed by a very good one next time although just that 6f hcap to compare it to really. Rockaway Valley gave Air Force Blue a good race fto and I was expecting both to progress into decent horses after that but RV hasn't gone on as well as AFB but I think the first time cheek pieces enabled him to produce his best against SW but he then ran a bit below that on Saturday. The breeding of SW is a strange one being by Fracas and out of a dam who won over 5f, the dam's sister did win the Irish guineas but strange this Fracas producing a horse with this speed as he wasn't a top class horse by any means. Could be an interesting Dewhurst should all 3 line up.
By:
ilikewavingatbuses
When: 14 Sep 15 11:54
Godolphin horse= wont be winning.

gl tho,hope u get a run.
By:
ffs
When: 14 Sep 15 14:00
"BTW do Godolphin still send their two year olds to Dubai for the winter? And if so, does anyone think the effect of sending young horses so far and back again might have an effect on their chances in the guineas."

I think so - but not Jim Bolger's - that should tell you the 'benefit' - some have had success because they climate was very cold where they were - Tesio for example, but that's Northern Italy where it's basically freezing hard and snowing.

Nothing wrong with Irish / English climate for young horses.
By:
deepingfox
When: 14 Sep 15 21:22
Godolphin keep the pre-Royal Ascot horses in Newmarket now, there's far more that don't travel to Dubai now c/w the past.
By:
Madhu
When: 15 Sep 15 01:00
I'm sure I read somewhere that Charming Thought was staying in Newmarket last year?
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