Cesarewich - Sat 10th October

Dont know why but I love this race. Not as much as the Ayr Gold Cup but still love it.

Strange really, as Tony Blair was in power the last time I backed the winner. Following the advice of my then guru - Gerald Delamere - I backed Miss Fara, back in the days when the Pipe stable could lay one out for a big flat handicap, who elbowed some Weld horse out of the way in the shadows of the post under a 5lb claimer by the name of Ryan Moore (whatever happened to him?).

Ive hit the bar, post and stanchion in the intervening years, most notably when steaming into King Revo ante-post at 33-1 (the day before Tom Segal put him up in the weekender), cursing my luck to see him berthed in the 2 stall and watching in wonder as Pip Robinson conjured up a wonder ride before being nailed on the line by the horse i'd backed to win both the Northumberland Plate and Ebor - the great Sergeant Cecil.

Been taking a sneaky at this years race and have hopefully plucked a couple out to take forward in the race.

I can understand the prices on the market leaders but given the uncertainty of future targets for a few of these have looked a bit further down the lists for my early fancies.
Mind you, not too far for the first, as Oriental Fox isnt loitering in the 66-1 bar section but i do feel he is very interesting, albeit 20-1 is probably about right at this time.

A winner of the ces trial in 2013, he ran a respectable race in the real thing under J Murtagh to finish 6th when looking to hold every chance 2 out. he carried top weight that day and will shoulder a similar burden should he line up in October but there are grounds for thinking he could do it at a 2nd attempt.
Firstly it was his first season in England and for mark Johnston and had been on the go since April, running in all the top handicaps with the Ces being his 10th hard race of the season. Maybe it was one race too many.
Whatever the reason he ran very respectively in listed/group company the following season, only being beaten 5 1/2 lengths in the Ascot Gold Cup and following it up 10 days later with a gallant effort under top weight in the Northumberland plate.

Not seen again until this years Queen Alexander, he absolutely hosed up, visually very impressive when he spreadeagled a decent field in a matter of strides and leaving the subsequent Ebor second Wicklow Brave floundering in his wake. He was apparently 10 kilos above his usual racing weight that day,which, if believed, was a top class effort in a race run 6 seconds faster than that won by Chiberta King who won the same race before finishing 4th in the 2013 Ces.

He then ran as well as could be expected in the Goodwood Cup, being disadvantaged when coming from behind looking briefly dangerous before fading into 7th. His latest run over in France showing his well-being and ability to act on most ground over a variety of distances.

He does hold an entry in the Stayers race at Ascot on champions day in October and given his good record at the track it does temper my enthusiasm to get involved. That said, he isnt that class and Im hoping Johnston has another crack at the race. If he does then I can see him being involved in the finish.

The other one I really like - and my ante-post bet at this stage - is Rite To Reign, generally a 33-1 poke but available at 40-1 with bet365 and Laddies.

This one was a steadily progressive 3yo, ending the season with a clear cut victory over C&D when not rated highly enough to run in last years Ces.
His return on the A/W was fine and his 4 runs on turf this year all give encouragement for his chances in this years race.
Firstly, at York, he was the only horse in the top 7 to come from the back of the field over 2 miles to finish on the heels of the leaders in 4th with the next two to do so - Mawaqueet (8th) & Saved By the Bell (10th)- both winning next time out.
There was nothing wrong with his next effort at Haydock when a close up 4th behind subsequent Ascot scorer Seamour with  Northumberland 3rd Nearly caught and Ebor third Suegioo 3rd & 4th respectively. He indeed ran well in the Plate, hugging the rail and unluckily stopped in his run on the race for home, coming home a respectable 8th and not given a hard time after his chance had gone. It would be stretching it to suggest he would have troubled the principals but would have undoubtedly have finished much closer with a clear passage. Stayers simply cannot recover as quickly as sprinters/milers when blocked and need time to gather momentum before renewing a challenge when all too often the chance has gone.
His latest run at Ascot ,on the face of it, was a little disappointing but these Ascot races often turn into a sprint for home and though only finishing 8th of 11 he was on the heels of the winning group with the remainder well pread out beihind. he wont be the last horse to be "Ascoted" on soft ground.

Id be astounded if the Ces wasnt his end of season target and indeed with trainer Phil McBride being Newmarket based the trial later this month has to be his next port of call. Im taking the 40-1 with Bet365 first 5 places and will top up after the race. Id also put a word in for Gavlar at 33-1 who has been plying his trade at Goodwood and Kempton all year but has improved for the step up to 2 miles this season, can be forgiven his run in the Goodwood stakes and is still improving. There will be worse 33-1 pokes on the day.

Thanks for reading!