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Horse Antepost
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These 120 comments are related to the topic:
Cesarewich - Sat 10th October
Cesarewich - Sat 10th October
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Ive backed Bayan, just cant quite weigh up why when there are a few hurdles down he has reached a rating that in the big Galway hurdles a couple of months ago he was rated 150 versus Quick Jack on 136 but take the hurdles away and Quick Jack rated 101 and Bayan 84.....enormous swing....
I will be backing others too but Bayan is my main hope. |
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Oh dear, the draw has been unkind to two of my arrows with Steve Rogers (33) and First Mohican (31) being drawn in car parks stalls. I suppose only consolation is Quick Jack (30) is too, and Low Key (20) is only ten or so away from them in the middle. I can’t really see a pace angle from the inside group other than Sir Mark Prescott pair Moscato (11) and Deauville Dancer (8), along with High Secret, Big Thunder, Norab, and Cinnilla all out wide. It is not a good race for horses racing prominently and being there at the finish, so all hope is not lost.
The normally held up/ waited with Heartbreak City (9) has a plum draw in the bottom 12 and in Fran Berry he has strong rider for the distance, and I’d bet he could have chosen the more exposed Quick Jack out of the fancied Tony Martin pair. I can see Low Key, and in particular, Quick Jack drifting markedly now, in which case, the 10/1 about the relatively lightly raced unexposed Heartbreak City looks way too big. Looking back at his York run, I think he is the one that ticks all the boxes and stands out now, and I can see his odds tumbling on the day if there is no real confidence in the other Irish-trained runners Renneti and Bayan, or the well-drawn Sir Mark Prescott trio. |
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Do you not think a little too much is made of the draw bias ? Top half a dozen in the last 12 years sees lots of those drawn out wide figuring at the business end
2 13 12 22 25 20 18 6 32 1 7 20 1 7 3 13 36 5 36 2 6 9 29 1 3 17 20 16 5 7 12 21 29 2 6 4 24 3 7 21 20 27 12 7 9 34 21 1 4 1 22 13 12 2 9 36 33 26 27 15 19 25 5 18 2 17 1 19 25 18 26 12 |
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Heartbreak City my second pick, does seem to be the one and Martin does well in this. I think Quick Jack is badly handicapped now and Cassels Rock wasnt great last time out. A stranger pick is Stonecutter who I have a small interest in on Betfair at triple figure odds. Needs a leap of faith but did run a fair race against a 100 rated Gosden horse when last seen after not having the best of runs. Lurking at the bottom off 82 here but not much to go off so only small stakes for me. My final pick is still be decided as struggling between First Mohican and Oriental Fox. May stick with the three Bayan, Heartbreak City and Stonecutter
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if it gets in....
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KipperRSA- I'm just looking at these from http://sportinglife.racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/cesarewitch-handicap-trends-2015-1444088557-
Draw Horses drawn 1 to 12: 7-16-120 Horses drawn 13 to 24: 2-9-120 Horses drawn 25 or higher: 1-5-87 Surprisingly for a race run over 2M 2F, there is a large big draw bias towards horses drawn low with 8 of the last 12 winners begin drawn 1 to 12. Horses drawn 1 to 5: 4-6-50. The bottom 5 stalls have produced 7 of last 14 winners and filled a quarter of the places in past 10 years from just over 15% of the total runners. So I would definitely prefer to be drawn low in all honesty, although it is not the end of the world for sure. |
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At face value Madhu yes you are spot on, just looking closer plenty of wide drawn horses running big races
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KipperRSA- 34 cars turning right after a mile is a recipe for disaster, by analogy, it certainly is when one arrives in the right hand lane at a roundabout with the aim to turn right and some kin knob in the left hand lane is indicating right!
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Nice analogy Madhu
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Really like Bajan in this, 20s still is way too big.
William of Orange next best for me. Good luck all |
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Hi Bertil... didn't you tip BAYAN @33s for the Ladbroke? Think he was on 11 5... no hurdles and less weight - draw is ok... the moment I saw him declared had to grab the 20s... ignore his last run.
Anyway my final 4 are RENNETI BAYAN COMMUNICATOR FIRST MOHICAN |
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Youre right Iris, I did put Bayan up for the Ladbroke though I think he was more of a 16-1 poke - bookies are never that generous about Elliots runners over here!
Im not sure about him for this, I just think he is a much better hurdler than flat racehorse and his flat strike rate of 1-14 bears this out to a degree. That said, you have to sit up and look when he sends one over even though Bayan has disappointed the two times he has run over here on the flat. TBH, ive looked at the race so many times now that I feel i could back half the field and not get the winner so Im stuck with Rite To Reign and as long as the ground dries up enough will Back Oriental Fox e/w when he inevitably gets pushed out to 25's... Good luck with your four. I dont get the First Mohican angle but plenty on here do and I was also all over Communicator last year but think the ground has gone against him again. |
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It looks like Pricewise has ‘tipped’ Montefeltro and Renneti
 - http://www.bettingtools.co.uk/tipster-table/tipsters/pricewise/23Unlucky to those people who have put forward Renneti, I feel for you   . |
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Phew...
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money queuing for William of Orange...definitely not pricewise ?
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Phew indeed !
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I like the look of shared equity at 20\1 and Foxtrot Romeo both dropping down the weights Shared equity has an 8lb pull with Poyle Vinnie and think there is the race for Foxtrot, will do for me. Best of luck
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wrong thread sorry
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Yep - tear up my main bet RENNETI ...
Thanks Bertil - yes First Mohican is leap of faith and mixed in potential... but with him and communicator very annoyed with the draw... but guess that's the risk you take with ante post... but I have gone each way so place is best I can hope for. but my portfolio has really shrunk to one.. BAYAN and Im happy with that. Cesarewitch always has that feeling that half the field can win... because the jump trainer puts their oar in and make things look way complicated than it seems. Good Luck with your selections. |
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heatbreak city is pricewise sir tom saying it will start half the price also wordiness
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My only bet so far is Noble Silk. He stays, ran well at Ascot and had a prep race at Doncaster. Well up the list on RPR and topspeed ratings so could run well at a big price.
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RENNETI looks the e/w bet, Oh! Jamie
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ORIENTAL FOX in an eachway double with HIGHLAND ACCLAIM both have run well in these races before ..
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Oh NO Heartbreak City is a kin Pricewise 'tip', kin hell all the anticipation up in smoke!
I'm on my way out to get get rope. |
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Have backed William of Orange,Noble Silk and Oriental Fox each way.
Winning on the rugby is a lot easier I have to say. |
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Happy days.
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Great result for me there, had the top 4 in my final 12 and bet the winner, at last a flat race winner !
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Did you mention the winner on here Kipper ?
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Well done uncle and ew backers. Quick Jack unlucky imo. With a better draw Ryan would not have had to give way so much ground at the beginning of the race getting the horse to the inside.
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Kipper. Just seen it on your own thread. well done !
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Good call KipperRSA and Uncle- Knew my fate with the draw on two of mine (Steve Rogers ran well) and then the Pricewise curse put the mockers on the other.
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Yeah sorry, I was dipping in and out of this thread then put my analysis on my own thread as quite lengthy and didnt want to hijack this one
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Painful that...
With these handicaps I like jump trainers - they generally do well Im a glutton for punishment but like backing Alan Kings horses... he has two FIRST MOHICAN 40/1 already discussed here and Grumeti out of the two I think FM has a better chance, ...ouch that hurt. |
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well done winners!
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Also unlucky Bertil... with Oriental Fox... was a bit surprised when the gamble unfolded on him... but I didn't think for one moment he would be as short as he was... and would get that close too... Just don't know what to expect from a Johnston horse these days...
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IrisDeBalme 10 Oct 15 22:06
Painful that... With these handicaps I like jump trainers - they generally do well Im a glutton for punishment but like backing Alan Kings horses... he has two FIRST MOHICAN 40/1 already discussed here and Grumeti out of the two I think FM has a better chance, ...ouch that hurt. Ouch !! Very bad luck Iris |
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Many disappointed backers of Oriental Fox after a huge plunge in the 20 minutes before the off.Myself included.
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Yep. Very unlucky Feltfair
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Did get 5.2/1 a place though.
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2 gambles went on yesterday with 2 biggest handicap races... Shared Equity and Oriental Fox... both 20s into 7s... that doesn't happen too often
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