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betilyerded
02 Sep 15 18:20
Joined:
Date Joined: 03 Jul 02
| Topic/replies: 817 | Blogger: betilyerded's blog
Dont know why but I love this race. Not as much as the Ayr Gold Cup but still love it.

Strange really, as Tony Blair was in power the last time I backed the winner. Following the advice of my then guru - Gerald Delamere - I backed Miss Fara, back in the days when the Pipe stable could lay one out for a big flat handicap, who elbowed some Weld horse out of the way in the shadows of the post under a 5lb claimer by the name of Ryan Moore (whatever happened to him?).

Ive hit the bar, post and stanchion in the intervening years, most notably when steaming into King Revo ante-post at 33-1 (the day before Tom Segal put him up in the weekender), cursing my luck to see him berthed in the 2 stall and watching in wonder as Pip Robinson conjured up a wonder ride before being nailed on the line by the horse i'd backed to win both the Northumberland Plate and Ebor - the great Sergeant Cecil.

Been taking a sneaky at this years race and have hopefully plucked a couple out to take forward in the race.

I can understand the prices on the market leaders but given the uncertainty of future targets for a few of these have looked a bit further down the lists for my early fancies.
Mind you, not too far for the first, as Oriental Fox isnt loitering in the 66-1 bar section but i do feel he is very interesting, albeit 20-1 is probably about right at this time.

A winner of the ces trial in 2013, he ran a respectable race in the real thing under J Murtagh to finish 6th when looking to hold every chance 2 out. he carried top weight that day and will shoulder a similar burden should he line up in October but there are grounds for thinking he could do it at a 2nd attempt.
Firstly it was his first season in England and for mark Johnston and had been on the go since April, running in all the top handicaps with the Ces being his 10th hard race of the season. Maybe it was one race too many.
Whatever the reason he ran very respectively in listed/group company the following season, only being beaten 5 1/2 lengths in the Ascot Gold Cup and following it up 10 days later with a gallant effort under top weight in the Northumberland plate.

Not seen again until this years Queen Alexander, he absolutely hosed up, visually very impressive when he spreadeagled a decent field in a matter of strides and leaving the subsequent Ebor second Wicklow Brave floundering in his wake. He was apparently 10 kilos above his usual racing weight that day,which, if believed, was a top class effort in a race run 6 seconds faster than that won by Chiberta King who won the same race before finishing 4th in the 2013 Ces.

He then ran as well as could be expected in the Goodwood Cup, being disadvantaged when coming from behind looking briefly dangerous before fading into 7th. His latest run over in France showing his well-being and ability to act on most ground over a variety of distances.

He does hold an entry in the Stayers race at Ascot on champions day in October and given his good record at the track it does temper my enthusiasm to get involved. That said, he isnt that class and Im hoping Johnston has another crack at the race. If he does then I can see him being involved in the finish.

The other one I really like - and my ante-post bet at this stage - is Rite To Reign, generally a 33-1 poke but available at 40-1 with bet365 and Laddies.

This one was a steadily progressive 3yo, ending the season with a clear cut victory over C&D when not rated highly enough to run in last years Ces.
His return on the A/W was fine and his 4 runs on turf this year all give encouragement for his chances in this years race.
Firstly, at York, he was the only horse in the top 7 to come from the back of the field over 2 miles to finish on the heels of the leaders in 4th with the next two to do so - Mawaqueet (8th) & Saved By the Bell (10th)- both winning next time out.
There was nothing wrong with his next effort at Haydock when a close up 4th behind subsequent Ascot scorer Seamour with  Northumberland 3rd Nearly caught and Ebor third Suegioo 3rd & 4th respectively. He indeed ran well in the Plate, hugging the rail and unluckily stopped in his run on the race for home, coming home a respectable 8th and not given a hard time after his chance had gone. It would be stretching it to suggest he would have troubled the principals but would have undoubtedly have finished much closer with a clear passage. Stayers simply cannot recover as quickly as sprinters/milers when blocked and need time to gather momentum before renewing a challenge when all too often the chance has gone.
His latest run at Ascot ,on the face of it, was a little disappointing but these Ascot races often turn into a sprint for home and though only finishing 8th of 11 he was on the heels of the winning group with the remainder well pread out beihind. he wont be the last horse to be "Ascoted" on soft ground.

Id be astounded if the Ces wasnt his end of season target and indeed with trainer Phil McBride being Newmarket based the trial later this month has to be his next port of call. Im taking the 40-1 with Bet365 first 5 places and will top up after the race. Id also put a word in for Gavlar at 33-1 who has been plying his trade at Goodwood and Kempton all year but has improved for the step up to 2 miles this season, can be forgiven his run in the Goodwood stakes and is still improving. There will be worse 33-1 pokes on the day.

Thanks for reading!
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Report Madhu September 16, 2015 6:14 PM BST
I cannot understand today's shortening of The Cashel Man at no 77, even with a penalty were he to win the trial, he would need 30 to come out!
Report johnnyrant September 16, 2015 10:26 PM BST
Gale Force if she runs. Looks like she's going to run in the trial at HQ on Sat, & there should be enough give for her after today's delude. Question is, whether she will run as talk of Long Distance Cup at Champions Meeting at Ascot.
Report Tucho September 17, 2015 1:01 AM BST
On the sportinglife site today Tony Martin said he expects to run only 2 of his entries and then talked about Heartbreak City and Quick Jack as the likely ones. Hopefully it's nothing to worry about for Thomas Edison fans, but maybe it's best to wait if your looking at the Martin runners to be sure.
Report deepingfox September 17, 2015 9:51 PM BST
Good point Tucho, I have now added HEARTBREAK CITY as an addition to my earlier THOMAS EDISON bet.
Report ashleigh September 18, 2015 5:30 PM BST
any chance of amour de nuit getting in.?
Report Madhu September 18, 2015 6:12 PM BST
ashleigh- Given 34 max (2014) runners and Amour De Nuit's position at no 76, even with a double penalty I would doubt it unless it cuts up considerably.
Report ashleigh September 18, 2015 10:01 PM BST
thanks.
Report betilyerded September 21, 2015 5:33 PM BST
Hmmmm. Underwhelming performances by Rite To Reign and Gavlar on Saturday.

If I was clutching at straws you could say it wasnt a bad effort coming on the back of a 50 odd day break - particularly if it was a sighter for next month. It was also run quite slowly early on so coming from behind was going to be more difficult.
And the stable isnt in  much form just now.
But like I said. Clutching at straws.....

And as for this statement, I think it might come back to haunt me!

"Dont know why but I love this race. Not as much as the Ayr Gold Cup but still love it.
Strange really, as Tony Blair was in power the last time I backed the winner. Following the advice of my then guru - Gerald Delamere - I backed Miss Fara, back in the days when the Pipe stable could lay one out for a big flat handicap"

It would appear that they now have the jolly!!

Oh happy days.
Report Facts September 21, 2015 5:56 PM BST
I was impressed by Low Key's performance in the Trial. My only bet at the moment
Report Benjy September 21, 2015 7:07 PM BST
Low Key won well at the weekend but still not that likely to get in is he?
Report Facts September 23, 2015 9:47 AM BST
I think he'll sneak in. If you look at  Exchange betting odds, it suggests at least  17 horses above him in the weights,  won't be running ?
Report Montoria September 23, 2015 11:24 AM BST
"I think he'll sneak in. If you look at  Exchange betting odds, it suggests at least  17 horses above him in the weights,  won't be running ?"


The Twisler being one of them !!  Cool
Report Madhu September 23, 2015 5:36 PM BST
Been having a look at Steve Rogers, and added him as another arrow, he looks tough and progressive and looks like easily getting in with a 4lb penalty. BF 36 avg.
Report Madhu September 26, 2015 6:37 PM BST
After today's disappointment in the Cambridgeshire, I have decided to have more arrows than there, and so I have added Seamour mon amour. BF Av 29 for a few bob.
Report Madhu September 26, 2015 7:49 PM BST
Just seen 16+ on here for Heartbreak City and been back to watch his run on Juddmonte International Day,  and  the accomplished ride of  the old school light-weight jockey Franny Norton- ultra-cool and confident ride. Off 90, guaranteed to get in, aimed at the race by the master English handicap plunderer Mr Martin; makes sense dunnit.
Report betilyerded September 30, 2015 3:15 PM BST
Must have been a confirmation stage today as 6 or so are missing, most notably Seamour and Gale Force.

Surprised Oriental Fox is still there as he is meant to be being aimed at Ascot. Change of heart?
Report Madhu October 4, 2015 4:33 PM BST
Any Quick Jack backers out there may like to know Betfair Sportsbook are way out of line with main bookies who have shortened him over the last few days by still offering 16/1.
Report Madhu October 4, 2015 5:58 PM BST
Well the 16's on Quick Jack soon went, now down to 12's!
Report Madhu October 4, 2015 10:18 PM BST
I think there is a few well weighted statistics that would enable one to discount the vast majority of this year’s field and I am gaining more, much more confidence in two of my arrows in particular, Heartbreak City (AvOd  17.81) and Steve Rogers (38.16).

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 4 on their last flat start (1 exception 6th in listed race)
9 of 10 winners (last 9) posted an RPR of 91+ last time
9 of 10 winners had won a race over 2M+ (flat or hurdles)

2014 statistics-http://digital-forums.com/showthread.php/975588-CESAREWITCH-HANDI...

Definitely worried about Low Key but horses carrying a penalty (1-6-48) have a poor record with only 7/ 48 runners making the frame, although the filly Never Can Tell (RIP) under a brilliant Frankie Dettori ride managed it in 2011.
Report Madhu October 4, 2015 11:29 PM BST
Had another look at the field and the only one that fits the statistics with good recent form is First Mohican. A winner over hurdles at 2m½f,  he ran a fine prep race, probably a career best finishing second after a lengthy absence under last year’s Cesarewitch winning jockey Tom Queally, trying to give 21lb to a progressive  Ed Dunlop 3yo in Scrutinise over 12f. AvOds 69.55.
Report betilyerded October 5, 2015 10:15 AM BST
Do you think First Mohican will get the trip Madhu? I know hes won over 2m over hurdles but 2 1/4 on the flat is a different thing altogether.

Ive taken a chance on one of Prescotts runners Amour Du Nuit getting a run. Think a good few will come out today and the 40-1 at Laddies was too big to resist. Hopefully the top 2 will come out to bring him just out of the handicap, then its in the lap of the gods.
Does hold alternative engagement in Ireland same weekend (whos idea is it to have both English and Irish Ces's on the same weekend??)

Weather unsettled for a few days with quite a bit of rain about but then high pressure comes back on Thursday through to the weekend so cant see it being any worse than the easy side of good and more likely to be good by saturday imo.
Report bazzar October 5, 2015 11:26 AM BST
Have the acceptors been published, does anyone know, please?
Report Madhu October 5, 2015 11:31 AM BST
bazzar- Market Suspensions:

    12pm, 5th October - Confirmation Of Entry Stage

We should know around 12.30pm mate.
Report bazzar October 5, 2015 11:35 AM BST
Thanks MADHU, always on pins for info, I suppose I am incurable.
Report Madhu October 5, 2015 12:06 PM BST
Betilyerded-

First Mohican
’s  dam, Mohican Girl, was a multiple Listed winner over 10f who won over 11.5f at Sandown for James Fanshawe and is half-sister to Yorkshire Oaks winners in Untold (placed in the Oaks) and Sally Brown (also won the Ribblesdale), as well as Mushtaag a winner of the Listed Stayers Handicap Hurdle at Leopardstown (24f), from family of Warm Spell (Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle, won 2m4f chase). I think that gives hope but with so many seemingly out of form I added him as another arrow and given his name on that count he sounds like a ringer!
Report betilyerded October 5, 2015 12:59 PM BST
Well he has been confirmed so looks an intended runner so good luck.

Not as many have come out as I thought would. 20 in total, 19 of which were above Amour De Nuitwhich leaves him 49th. Think the max field is 34 so not looking good unless there are mass defections.

Oriental Fox looks a runner so may have an each way poke at him given its looking unlikely the above will run.
Report bazzar October 5, 2015 1:10 PM BST
Did LOW KEY get in,
please?
Report betilyerded October 5, 2015 1:45 PM BST
Bazzar

Theres another declaration at the 48 hour stage so he will definitely get a run.
I havent seen the revised list but would be surprised if isnt already guaranteed a run.
Report betilyerded October 5, 2015 2:54 PM BST
Does anyone know if they have tinkered with the max field for this race, just as they did with the Ayr Gold Cup?

Im just puzzled by this quote from Sporting Life about Low key who is currently number 31 on list, which in any other year would guarantee a run.

"while Sky Bet's 7/1 favourite Low Key will also need a handful of runners to come out to make the final cut. The sponsors' spokesman Andrew Griffiths said: "Low Key has been a firm favourite since he cruised to victory in the Cesarewitch Trial but the possibility remains that he won't get into the main event."

Im confused!!
Report Facts October 5, 2015 5:36 PM BST
He's in at 31 according to The Racing Post declarations. The maximum field is 34. So he's in as far as I'm concerned.
If you look on Sporting Life site, he's in at 44 !? But they don't appear to have adjusted for the penalty he was given for winning his last race.
Report betilyerded October 5, 2015 7:38 PM BST
That sounds like a sound explanation Facts though its a bit of an oversight by those concerned giving the quotes.

Im glad they havent reduced the field size, not least cos Im sweating on Amour De Nuit getting in.
Report Benjy October 5, 2015 8:14 PM BST
Seems I was wrong about Low Key getting in... And as a result I'm having to back him now at 7s.

Added to Nearly Caught as posted previously.

Will wait for declarations but there's one or two more I'm likely to add also Silly
Report Facts October 5, 2015 10:47 PM BST
David Pipe: Trains Low Key

The dual-purpose eight-year-old was assured of his place in the line-up when picking up a 4lb penalty for winning the Cesarewitch Trial over the course and a distance last month.

Leading apprentice Tom Marquand, who was in the plate that day, will again take a valuable 3lb off the ante-post favourite.

Low Key was one of 56 horses left in the historic two and a quarter mile handicap following the five-day confirmation stage.

"He has been favourite for the race since landing the trial over the course and distance last month and he sneaks into the field towards the bottom of the weights," the Nicholashayne handler told www.davidpipe.com.

"He will once again be partnered by champion apprentice-elect Tom Marquand, who will take a handy 3lb off his back.

"I have been very pleased with his preparation and I hope to go one better than when Mamlook finished runner-up for me in 2009.

"Any rain between now and then will suit and I am optimistic that he will run a big race."
Report liberator of the oppressed October 6, 2015 7:38 AM BST
georgie doing 9 1 for me lord the right honorable.
Report Facts October 6, 2015 9:38 AM BST
Two bets :-

Low Key
Quick Jack
Report unclepuncle October 6, 2015 9:41 AM BST
Just came on to post that Rite To Reign was my fancy @ 50/1 and see he was the OP's original tip - could have saved myself a couple of hours form study.Cry
Report Facts October 6, 2015 10:01 AM BST
But much more fun and satisfaction sorting one out for yourself imo Happy
Report unclepuncle October 6, 2015 10:30 AM BST
^ But all you've done is pick the front two in the betting - that must have taken all of 2 minutes.Silly
Report Facts October 6, 2015 12:03 PM BST
Don't be disingenuous. If only it was that easy Plain !
Report Facts October 6, 2015 12:05 PM BST
They're the front two in the market for the simple fact they have the best credentials for winning Imo. Hth
Report betilyerded October 6, 2015 12:18 PM BST
Uncle

Put Rite To Reign up before he ran at Newmarket. Would like to have seen more tbh. Came with a promising run but short-lived and faded tamely.
Could have been to put him ready for saturday after a two month break but even so it wasnt encouraging, particularly on the back of his previous tame effort - think Low Key looked good that day but 7-1 in a 34 runner handicap is not my sort of price.

Having said that, 50-1 is big given his promising runs earlier this year and C&D win last backend - would be nice to see De Sousa booked again but cant see that happening.

Ground has eased to Good at HQ (a bit of G/S). Likely to go G/S by tomorrow before drying out by Saturday, so Good ground looking likeliest scenario.
Report Madhu October 6, 2015 12:23 PM BST
Ditto betilyerded- traded out on Rite To Reign after poor run, did the same with Moscato.
Report ThunderRoad October 6, 2015 6:06 PM BST
Not like me to get involved at this stage, but think with rain likely the next few days, everything will be bang in Low Key's favour and he'll be very, very tough to beat.
Report FELTFAIR October 6, 2015 7:12 PM BST
Dry from here on in round here I think.
Report harchibald October 6, 2015 7:21 PM BST
It's been raining and it's currently good, good-to-soft in places. I'm with First Mohican here guys ... I hope there's some juice in the ground and I'm going Friday so I'll find out ! 3yo who nabbed FM at Goodwood runs/entered up at HQ on Friday so may give hint as to the form. Ponsonby very candid about campaign and target and King yard in good form. Queally jocked up early and this ain't a 40/1 chance that's for sure, one of the larger bits of 'value' I could find in this race.

GL
Report TheGoddess October 6, 2015 8:34 PM BST
Any thoughts on TOMMY DOCC in here off 8 stone so a few need to come out?

Won the TOTESCOOP6 EDINBURGH CUP (Class 2) over 1m4½f Good To Firm Musselburgh in June

Then

Was Second in the QUEEN'S VASE (LISTED RACE)(Class 1) 2m Good To Firm Ascot in June, beaten 1/2 a length by Aiden O'Briens ALOFT

40/1 with Laddies, generally 33/1
Report harchibald October 6, 2015 9:03 PM BST
RP Weekender out tomorrow and sure to be packed full of coverage on this one chaps ...
Report IrisDeBalme October 6, 2015 9:33 PM BST
Painful race this - had really big bet on Countrywide flame at big prices... and Aim to Prosper came to win it... I think its that type of race... so don't get carried away with short priced horses... last three winners were 66/1, 66/1 and 25/1... 

But its a real good race this year - rather than go for the obvious types like LOW KEY or QUICK JACK might be wise to wait til Saturday as once the draw / ground is out - Im confident you will get better value then than you will now.. my preference is LOW KEY out of the two felt QUICK JACK had his chance last year, but Low Key - penalty / jump in class and age is of concern but did beat Montefeltro last time... so deserves respect but 7/1?? No not really.

So thought id dabble each way at bigger prices.

COMMUNICATOR is worth chancing on 8-6 at 40/1 not many runs this season but had a few decent efforts last season including 6lb lower mark than last year.  Im not a big fan of Hayley Turner who is jocked on him, so very much a risky proposition, but think the horse is more than capable on that weight, and has real decent form to go with it.

With these handicaps I like jump trainers - they generally do well Im a glutton for punishment but like backing Alan Kings horses... he has two FIRST MOHICAN 40/1 already discussed here and Grumeti out of the two I think FM has a better chance, he has run in big handicaps last season and disappointed miserably like the November handicap, not sure this is a prep for the jumps or a genuine attempt to win a race of this sort but Quelly on board is positive - and 40/1 is way too tempting at this stage.

Ill have another look on Thursday decs...

Good Luck
Report Madhu October 6, 2015 11:58 PM BST
Without a doubt the most significant statistic is related to the huge draw bias-

Horses drawn 1 to 12: 7-16-120

Horses drawn 13 to 24: 2-9-120

Horses drawn 25 or higher: 1-5-87

Never Can Tell was the one that beat the extreme car park draw with an amazing Frankie Dettori ride- although I speak from the pocket, you have to see that ride to believe it.
Report unclepuncle October 7, 2015 8:44 AM BST
IrisDeBalme
06 Oct 15 21:33


COMMUNICATOR is worth chancing on 8-6 at 40/1 not many runs this season but had a few decent efforts last season including 6lb lower mark than last year.  Im not a big fan of Hayley Turner who is jocked on him, so very much a risky proposition, but think the horse is more than capable on that weight, and has real decent form to go with it.


I was also all over Communicator for this last year - he ran OK but just didn't seem to get home (not quickly enough anyway). Might have a tiny saver on him just in case.Cry
Report FELTFAIR October 7, 2015 9:04 AM BST
Persisted down in the night for an hour or so.Forecast to be dry from now on likely good to soft Friday but drying so good come Saturday I would think but definitely not "fast" ground.
Report ashleigh October 7, 2015 11:11 AM BST
backed two, low key 8/1 and wordiness at 60 who has done nothing but improve all season and happy to see s de sousa jocked up.
Report liberator of the oppressed October 7, 2015 11:56 AM BST
Georgie doing 9 1 tells you everything. Oi oi.
Report IrisDeBalme October 7, 2015 10:54 PM BST
RENNETI @ 16/1 ... ran badly last time out... odd horse as has indifferent form... very unlikely profile for Cesarewitch winner... and Jamie Spencer riding for Mullins which is more interesting.

But looking at his form in more detail he was ahead of Artic Fire as a 4 year old and AF was second to Faugheen ... so maybe had a few issues with the horse... explains why lightly raced... But if Mullins has found a jockey for him so early it merits respect, considering the vast arsenal he has to aim at a race like this.
Report liberator of the oppressed October 8, 2015 7:10 AM BST
Ran worse than a dog last time. Needs a labotomy questions about putting hoof forward and starting isn't there? Could be a big plot though. Interesting.
Report betilyerded October 8, 2015 8:36 AM BST
Strange that. Spencer was jocked up on Eshtial of Elliots earlier in the week but has now swapped mounts.

Fanning jocked up on Oriental Fox so looking a likely runner. Top weight a big ask but if the ground dries out I think he's a solid e/w poke.
Gonna hang out until todays decs and hope for some 25's.
Report KipperRSA October 8, 2015 10:35 AM BST
Presumably Eshtial is running in the Irish version so Spencer switched mounts ? Not exactly an eyecatching booking imo Spencer / Mullins 2 well beaten rides across the years

Also, the comment further up re Georgie doing 9st 1.....does he not regularly ride at that weight and lower ?!
Report unclepuncle October 8, 2015 11:13 AM BST
36 runners.Grin

Rite To Reign got a nice draw in 12. Quick Jack in 30, Low Key in 20.

Will add small bets on Grumeti and Teak once the race day Betfair market is fully formed.

GL all.
Report betilyerded October 8, 2015 12:29 PM BST
Regarding Rite To Reign, not the most inspiring jockey booking, particularly with de Sousa preferring David Evans' horse.

Youre right about Eshtial staying in Ireland, wonder if Spencer goes over to ride him. Interesting that Elliot runs Bayan as I remember him writing a couple of seasons back that he thought there would be a big flat handicap in him, though hasnt been helped by the draw.
cant decide between him and Oriental Fox as my other bet now that Amour De Nuit didnt get inSad
Report KipperRSA October 8, 2015 12:43 PM BST
Ive backed Bayan, just cant quite weigh up why when there are a few hurdles down he has reached a rating that in the big Galway hurdles a couple of months ago he was rated 150 versus Quick Jack on 136 but take the hurdles away and Quick Jack rated 101 and Bayan 84.....enormous swing....

I will be backing others too but Bayan is my main hope.
Report Madhu October 8, 2015 1:01 PM BST
Oh dear, the draw has been unkind to two of my arrows with Steve Rogers (33) and First Mohican (31) being drawn in car parks stalls. I suppose only consolation is Quick Jack (30) is too, and Low Key (20) is only ten or so away from them in the middle. I can’t really see a pace angle from the inside group other than Sir Mark Prescott pair Moscato (11) and Deauville Dancer (8), along with High Secret, Big Thunder, Norab, and Cinnilla all out wide. It is not a good race for horses racing prominently and being there at the finish, so all hope is not lost.

The normally held up/ waited with Heartbreak City (9) has a plum draw in the bottom 12 and in Fran Berry he has strong rider for the distance, and I’d bet he could have chosen the more exposed Quick Jack  out of the fancied Tony Martin pair. I can see Low Key, and in particular, Quick Jack drifting markedly now, in which case, the 10/1 about the relatively lightly raced unexposed Heartbreak City looks way too big.  Looking back at his York run, I think he is the one that ticks all the boxes and stands out now, and I can see his odds tumbling on the day if there is no real confidence in the other Irish-trained runners Renneti and Bayan, or the well-drawn Sir Mark Prescott trio.
Report KipperRSA October 8, 2015 1:13 PM BST
Do you not think a little too much is made of the draw bias ? Top half a dozen in the last 12 years sees lots of those drawn out wide figuring at the business end
2 13 12 22 25 20
18 6 32 1 7 20
1 7 3 13 36 5
36 2 6 9 29 1
3 17 20 16 5 7
12 21 29 2 6 4
24 3 7 21 20 27
12 7 9 34 21 1
4 1 22 13 12 2
9 36 33 26 27 15
19 25 5 18 2 17
1 19 25 18 26 12
Report KipperRSA October 8, 2015 1:29 PM BST
Heartbreak City my second pick, does seem to be the one and Martin does well in this. I think Quick Jack is badly handicapped now and Cassels Rock wasnt great last time out. A stranger pick is Stonecutter who I have a small interest in on Betfair at triple figure odds. Needs a leap of faith but did run a fair race against a 100 rated Gosden horse when last seen after not having the best of runs. Lurking at the bottom off 82 here but not much to go off so only small stakes for me. My final pick is still be decided as struggling between First Mohican and Oriental Fox. May stick with the three Bayan, Heartbreak City and Stonecutter
Report KipperRSA October 8, 2015 1:44 PM BST
if it gets in....
Report Madhu October 8, 2015 1:45 PM BST
KipperRSA- I'm just looking at these from http://sportinglife.racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/ces...

Draw

Horses drawn 1 to 12: 7-16-120

Horses drawn 13 to 24: 2-9-120

Horses drawn 25 or higher: 1-5-87

Surprisingly for a race run over 2M 2F, there is a large big draw bias towards horses drawn low with 8 of the last 12 winners begin drawn 1 to 12.

Horses drawn 1 to 5: 4-6-50. The bottom 5 stalls have produced 7 of last 14 winners and filled a quarter of the places in past 10 years from just over 15% of the total runners.

So I would definitely prefer to be drawn low in all honesty, although it is not the end of the world for sure.
Report KipperRSA October 8, 2015 1:53 PM BST
At face value Madhu yes you are spot on, just looking closer plenty of wide drawn horses running big races
Report Madhu October 8, 2015 2:09 PM BST
KipperRSA- 34 cars turning right after a mile is a recipe for disaster, by analogy, it certainly is when one arrives in the right hand lane at a roundabout with the aim to turn right and some kin knob in the left hand lane is indicating right!
Report KipperRSA October 8, 2015 2:11 PM BST
Nice analogy Madhu Grin
Report mary hinge October 8, 2015 2:44 PM BST
Really like Bajan in this, 20s still is way too big.

William of Orange next best for me.

Good luck all
Report IrisDeBalme October 8, 2015 10:20 PM BST
Hi Bertil... didn't you tip BAYAN @33s for the Ladbroke? Think he was on 11 5... no hurdles and less weight - draw is ok... the moment I saw him declared had to grab the 20s... ignore his last run.

Anyway my final 4 are

RENNETI
BAYAN   
COMMUNICATOR
FIRST MOHICAN
Report betilyerded October 9, 2015 12:27 PM BST
Youre right Iris, I did put Bayan up for the Ladbroke though I think he was more of a 16-1 poke - bookies are never that generous about Elliots runners over here!

Im not sure about him for this, I just think he is a much better hurdler than flat racehorse and his flat strike rate of 1-14 bears this out to a degree. That said, you have to sit up and look when he sends one over even though Bayan has disappointed the two times he has run over here on the flat.

TBH, ive looked at the race so many times now that I feel i could back half the field and not get the winner so Im stuck with Rite To Reign and as long as the ground dries up enough will Back Oriental Fox e/w when he inevitably gets pushed out to 25's...

Good luck with your four. I dont get the First Mohican angle but plenty on here do and I was also all over Communicator last year but think the ground has gone against him again.
Report Madhu October 9, 2015 6:50 PM BST
It looks like Pricewise has ‘tipped’ Montefeltro and RennetiSad- http://www.bettingtools.co.uk/tipster-table/tipsters/pricewise/23
Unlucky to those people who have put forward Renneti, I feel for youExcitedCry.
Report KipperRSA October 9, 2015 7:06 PM BST
Phew...
Report KipperRSA October 9, 2015 7:08 PM BST
money queuing for William of Orange...definitely not pricewise ?
Report Facts October 9, 2015 8:10 PM BST
Phew indeed !
Report tim6 October 9, 2015 8:19 PM BST
I like the look of shared equity at 20\1 and Foxtrot Romeo both dropping down the weights Shared equity has an 8lb pull with Poyle Vinnie and think there is the race for Foxtrot, will do for me. Best of luck
Report tim6 October 9, 2015 8:30 PM BST
wrong thread sorry
Report IrisDeBalme October 9, 2015 8:54 PM BST
Yep - tear up my main bet RENNETI ...

Thanks Bertil - yes First Mohican is leap of faith and mixed in potential... but with him and communicator very annoyed with the draw... but guess that's the risk you take with ante post... but I have gone each way so place is best I can hope for.

but my portfolio has really shrunk to one.. BAYAN and Im happy with that.

Cesarewitch always has that feeling that half the field can win... because the jump trainer puts their oar in and make things look way complicated than it seems.

Good Luck with your selections.
Report Fashion Fever October 10, 2015 12:44 AM BST
heatbreak city is pricewise sir tom saying it will start half the price also wordiness
Report sageform October 10, 2015 7:29 AM BST
My only bet so far is Noble Silk. He stays, ran well at Ascot and had a prep race at Doncaster. Well up the list on RPR and topspeed ratings so could run well at a big price.
Report metro john October 10, 2015 7:47 AM BST
RENNETI looks the e/w bet, Oh! JamieExcitedCry
Report Capallsasta October 10, 2015 8:36 AM BST
ORIENTAL FOX in an eachway double with HIGHLAND ACCLAIM both have run well in these races before ..
Report Madhu October 10, 2015 10:02 AM BST
Oh NO Heartbreak City is a kin Pricewise 'tip', kin hell all the anticipation up in smoke!CryCryCry

I'm on my way out to get get rope.
Report FELTFAIR October 10, 2015 10:42 AM BST
Have backed William of Orange,Noble Silk and Oriental Fox each way.

Winning on the rugby is a lot easier I have to say.
Report unclepuncle October 10, 2015 4:01 PM BST
Happy days.Happy
Report KipperRSA October 10, 2015 4:13 PM BST
Great result for me there, had the top 4 in my final 12 and bet the winner, at last a flat race winner !
Report Facts October 10, 2015 4:17 PM BST
Did you mention the winner on here Kipper ?
Report Facts October 10, 2015 4:19 PM BST
Well done uncle and ew backers. Quick Jack unlucky imo. With a better draw Ryan would not have had to give way so much ground at the beginning of the race getting the horse to the inside.
Report Facts October 10, 2015 4:21 PM BST
Kipper. Just seen it on your own thread. well done !
Report Madhu October 10, 2015 4:46 PM BST
Good call KipperRSA and Uncle- Knew my fate with the draw on two of mine (Steve Rogers ran well) and then the Pricewise curse put the mockers on the other.
Report KipperRSA October 10, 2015 5:00 PM BST
Yeah sorry, I was dipping in and out of this thread then put my analysis on my own thread as quite lengthy and didnt want to hijack this one
Report IrisDeBalme October 10, 2015 10:06 PM BST
Painful that...


With these handicaps I like jump trainers - they generally do well Im a glutton for punishment but like backing Alan Kings horses... he has two FIRST MOHICAN 40/1 already discussed here and Grumeti out of the two I think FM has a better chance,


...ouch that hurt.
Report IrisDeBalme October 10, 2015 10:06 PM BST
well done winners!
Report IrisDeBalme October 10, 2015 10:18 PM BST
Also unlucky Bertil... with Oriental Fox... was a bit surprised when the gamble unfolded on him... but I didn't think for one moment he would be as short as he was... and would get that close too... Just don't know what to expect from a Johnston horse these days...
Report Facts October 11, 2015 12:54 AM BST
IrisDeBalme    10 Oct 15 22:06 
Painful that...


With these handicaps I like jump trainers - they generally do well Im a glutton for punishment but like backing Alan Kings horses... he has two FIRST MOHICAN 40/1 already discussed here and Grumeti out of the two I think FM has a better chance,

...ouch that hurt.




Ouch !! Very bad luck Iris Sad
Report FELTFAIR October 11, 2015 2:48 PM BST
Many disappointed backers of Oriental Fox after a huge plunge in the 20 minutes before the off.Myself included.
Report Facts October 11, 2015 3:39 PM BST
Yep. Very unlucky Feltfair
Report FELTFAIR October 11, 2015 4:38 PM BST
Did get 5.2/1 a place though.Grin
Report IrisDeBalme October 11, 2015 5:25 PM BST
2 gambles went on yesterday with 2 biggest handicap races... Shared Equity and Oriental Fox... both 20s into 7s... that doesn't happen too often
Report Facts October 11, 2015 9:32 PM BST
I wonder if they had been backed in a double ?
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