Horse Antepost
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Cambridgeshire
Cambridgeshire
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6.6 current going stick,any more rain on top of that would have gd/sft ground looks likely to be good ground by Saturday with no rain fcast Friday and Saturday,that wouldn't rule Energia fox out as long ss there's no firm in there..
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Has nobody got the in form (understatement) Richard Fahey's hugely progressive 3yo THIRD TIME LUCKY on their radar? I can't see past the horse.
He could quite conceivably have won his last 6 races (won 4) but his most striking effort was when winning incredibly easily last time out at Thirsk - in a fast time - despite being heavily eased close home,'Tracked leader, led on bit over 1f out, driven clear, heavily eased closing stages. There were 3 1/2 lengths back to the secong that day and fully 9 lengths back to the 3rd. Just how much more did he have up his cuff I wonder??? He picks up a 4lb penalty for Saturday but is due to go up 8lbs in future so is in fact 4lb 'well in'. He is top on both RPR and Topspeed by my calculations and his Topspeed figure was achieved whilst being 'heavily eased' it is reasonable to assume there is plenty more to come. I can only assume that he has been ignored because it seemed for a long time it was very unlikely he would get in but with all the defections at the 5 day stage he now sneaks in at the bottom as number 35 of 35 - so there isn't even going to be any need to sweat on a run. If Jack Garrity were to get the ride that would be the icing on the cake. I can actually see him going off near enough fav come Saturday. |
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I have found Nafaqa difficult to fathom, but does possess class, not much in the way of value at current odds, and the ground on the soft side will be an unknown.
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Good to see Energia Davos in the field. Great piece of mis-information by the R.Post once again reporting that he would miss the race and run in Australia.
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I don't think you can blame the Post. Unless I'm mistaking they were just reporting comments from the trainer, who said he could go either way.
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They get far too much consistently wrong though PJ. And if you report something like that, they should then produce a follow up report stating the horse is going to run in the Cambridgeshire. It's hard enough second guessing trainers but the R.Post really doesn't help.
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Pleased with the draw for my 3 arrows, My Dream Boat and Man of Harlech being drawn together in stall 3 and 4, not too far away from pacer Master Carpenter (11), and Portage in 28 is has the likes of Nafaqa (24) and Ifwecan (20) to his inside. Looks like possibility of 2 groups rather than in some years a small group of 3 up the centre. Too be honest I am glad my three are meeting Bronze Angel with some give in the ground. Worried about Mick Halford’s form but after Seeking Magic’s win and a few places, and Clive Cox putting up the returning Ryan Tate with his 3lb claim, I can’t believe My Dream Boat is still 25/1. As for Man Of Harlech, he is going to have a stronger ride in having David Probert up, than LTO 2nd to Bronze Angel. Bee lucky.
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They were reporting on the below comment from the trainer:
"I am just waiting to hear from Australia to find out if there is enough space for Energia Davos at the International Quarantine Centre at Werribee. If there is he will go into quarantine next week in preparation for the Emirates Stakes. Otherwise he will run in the Betfred Cambridgeshire. He is in tip top form and was only about 85 per cent fit for his easy win at Ascot. I saddled Mull Of Killough to finish second in the Betfred Cambridgeshire three years ago but the two horses are not really that similar. Mully loved the Rowley Mile and would go forward and find another gear when he hit the rising ground. While I am confident after Ascot that Energia Davos will handle the Rowley Mile, he is a complacent worker at home and is not flashy at all." |
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I know but there was no follow up story to that, leaving punters in the dark.
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We have been fortunate to have Montoria who appears to own a leg in Energia Davos, and with JCH does use Twitter to keep people informed, not sure what happened in this case as I don't use Twitter. Energia Davos slightly reminds me of the plot with Formal Decree considering the booking of Jamie Spencer but I think as a 7yo he has age statistically against him- last one the dual winner Rambo's Hall.
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The R.Post. I would have thought they could have found the time to contact the trainer & ask whether the Australia trip was on or not. They are increasingly lazy with their journalism.
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Pipedreamer...who's your bet in the race?
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Unoriginal but i'm backing Portage..only had the 6 runs and has the perfect profile with accompanied prep for the race so 10/1 is worth it under NRNB given he was just 16s ante-post. Quote from Halford after he won his Maiden last season below...
Halford has some nice two-year-olds to go to war with this season and Portage created a favourable impression when finishing a running-on second to East India on his Curragh debut on Saturday. In what is traditionally a red-hot maiden, won by Australia 12 months ago as well as New Approach and his sire Teofilo in the recent past, the Sheikh Mohammed-owned colt shaped with plenty of promise despite running green and breaking slowly from the stalls. Halford said of the 70,000 guineas purchase: "He's a horse I really like and he could be very smart. I'm really looking forward to him as he's a big, scopey sort and that first run will have brought him on plenty. "He wouldn't run against Toscanini, but he ran great considering he was green and we're all excited about him at home." |
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Think Earth Drummer is the answer when all things considered, stats suggest a 5yr old 12/1 or less as far as I can deduce. Ran a furlong too long last time 9F is his distance currently. visor on, O'Meara trained and Tudhope up. Only negative is that his is drawn 35 anyone know the draw bias here. Either way think he is primed for this. Do see third time lucky and portage as main dangers should be a cracker
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probably Know The Bias After This Race
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Madhu.....own nothing of Energia, but have The Twisler with JCH.
Energia is spot on at home and will run a good race, dare I say it, he should be there or thereabouts. |
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Nafaqa @ 25 is my main bet.
Have also had small bets on Halation @ 28 and Bronze Angel @ 11 GL |
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Well Tim a 5 year old on your stats.Well just exactly what stats are those!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!??????????????????????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!.One 5 year old winner in this race since 1973!!!!!!!!!!!!!!??.Suggest you get a new set of specs,and stats.Whatever,best of luck anyway!!.
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Also had a small bet on Forgotten hero @ 48 so thats 4 agaisnt the field
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2010 Credit Swap 5 8-07 Jim Crowley Michael Wigham 14/1 1:53.87
2011 Prince of Johanne 5 8-09 John Fahy Tom Tate 40/1 1:49.14 2012 Bronze Angel 3 8-08 William Buick Marcus Tregoning 9/1 1:47.73 2013 Educate 4 9-09 Johnny Murtagh Ismail Mohammed 8/1 F 1:51.05 2014 Bronze Angel 5 8-08 Louis Steward Marcus Tregoning 14/1 1:48.68 Uncle not sure where you get your info but 3 5year old horses have won this in the last 5 years that will do for me as you asked stats above |
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^ Think you mean Pipedreamer
 - I never make any comments that are wrong. |
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Am I right in suggesting a high draw is difficult to overcome? Slightly tempers my enthusiasm for Abseil who I can see running well.
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Yep apologies,brains going.The stats are changing.I bet a lot of those in the bottom half 0f the race didnt think they'd get in the race,how many really fancy their chances.The Draw depends on Stalls being stands side or far side.
The racing Post tells us that the stalls are "inside".Once again a total lack of info,site full of everything bar info,e.g.cant tel you in the Golden Mile at Goodwood over the years that the bottom horse is actually a reserve,no info. Spanish Don won on the stands side in 2004 Drawn 3,but the rails had been pushed back,[the diamond screen on the far side was further away,must have been the old draw 8 or 13,which equates to where Quinlan Terry was in 88 and Leysh was in 85. Basically except for 2011 when they all came over to the stands side,the winner has raced on the far side.If its reported as "stalls far side course" high numbers could be ok.A description of "stands side course wouldn't be good for high numbers. There is a pacemaker in 20 so who knows,besides the year Supaseus won it hadn't rained for weeksyet there was a distict bias on the far rail,Strange?!. Suggest you look at any head on pictures of the course on the Morning Line,should be a guide and as in the past,if Jim Magrath has reservations about your horse its been wise over the years to take notice.Best of luck to all. |
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sorry uncle wasn't having a go at you or pipe as pipe says stats change a lot and everyone interprets them their own way for me I am going with 5year olds with weight between 8-7 and 9st which leaves me with Earth Drummer, Abseil and Musaddas and thus have backed them accordingly albeit with 5 places.
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The mile and half race ran at Newmarket resulted in the horses finishing stands side which may be a pointer to the stands side being favoured tomorrow.
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Portage is the trends horse, he'll do for me.
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Tough race...
Ive gone Portage, Educate, Express Himself, Examiner, Franklin D |
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Tough race Kipper,more like impossible I think.
However,I have narrowed it down to six horses and in no particular order, Musaddas - not sure will get home Firefighter - Bit on the sharp side I feel Forgotten Hero - As above Ginger Jack - Will back each way Obsidian - Will back each way Polar Forest - Don`t fancy Will back the two above and be over the moon if there is any return. |
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The race I found most difficult to solve, was the Ayr Gold Cup, but eventually found the winner,
the Cambridgeshire I thought was pretty easy, the winner is nether GOLD or Silver, but the other one. |
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In these kind of races I can usually make a case for quite a few horses. But not this time.
Can't see beyond my initial thoughts :- Bronze Angel Portage Good luck to all players. Should be an exciting race. |
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Just had another look and quite like Portage but wondering if the high draw will affect his chance.
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Seems a bit of a strange thing to say and given the size of the field (and the race itself) I'm sure there'll be a reasonable pace but there is a lack of obvious front runners. Makes it rather difficult to add my others...
Going to add Birdman, to Bronze Angel and My Dream Boat. GL all. |
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EDUCATE yourselfs and add drummer boy and the bronze for a third
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My three in order of precedence
BRONZE ANGEL EDUCATE DONNCHA Will add one more in the morning if something catches my eye. Good Luck |
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GENETICALLY MODIFIED (HOOD)WINS WITH ITS DICK OUT
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g m hopkins for me
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Portage has been put up by Pricewise!!!
Has got no chance of winning now  |
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Must admit, anything Pricewise puts up this Flat season, dampens enthusiasm. Is Tom Segal still on a long, losing run, or has he managed a winner in the last few weeks?
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Franklin D for Haley Turner(The AW boys still love ya
  ) must be chanced also, nice draw and a fairy tale ending. |