Horse Antepost
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LOCKINGE STAKES
LOCKINGE STAKES
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I’ll put forward another thing or two that has passed my mind-
Qatar Racing/Al Shaqab Racing They have had Osiala, Smaih and Moheet run in classics from the Hannon’s stable, moreover, they had Toronado and Olympic Glory last year alongside Night of Thunder and Toormore. David Redvers, racing manager to owners Qatar Racing, said: "We were delighted with the run at Newmarket, he was beaten by a good horse that on the day just sneaked up on him. "He's a top-class horse and that was the first step back on the road. "At the moment, we are looking at running him next in either the Lockinge or the Diomed (Epsom). "If we think that he has a realistic chance of winning the Lockinge he will go for that as the race has great prize-money and it is a fair track which should suit him well." What with them sponsoring it and hiking the prize money to £350,000 this year, I think he is cold stone certainty to get there in peak condition. They know the time of day. Peter Chapple-Hyam is olde school class. Respect. Also, I think he did well for them in Caravan Rolls On. I think Moohaarib and Arod are two decent arrows if it stays fast. |
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No mention of toomore on the thread. Smallish e/w bet for me.
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At bigger odd 33/1 TOP NOTCH TONTO has a each way shout...
Obviously the more rain the better... |
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fair comments madhu but this comment interested the most and this is where i am at with the horse
"At the moment, we are looking at running him next in either the Lockinge or the Diomed (Epsom). the diomed is just a group 3 and maybe this is just his level? listen like i say i have paid dearly following him, maybe the drop back will suit but just maybe he isn't as good as i thought he'd be and he certainly never will be, if he doesn't learn to drop the bit |
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My problem with him also is I’m not sure about the draw and pace. I think I caught a bit of TV talk about the first nine home being drawn low and coming up the centre in the 7f maiden race on the straight course today but I’m not sure, as I think the best horses for speed and highest rated were over there so it might be a bit deceiving?
With 18 runners and 2 endings of the starting stalls they will probably be in 2 groups again- centre and stands side. Down the centre I am sure Custom Cut and Integral will want to slow it down a bit in front quicken 2 out. Night of Thunder would be better off a fast pace. There will be good horses to pass. I think that might suit Arod if he tracks the pace and settles better over a mile, and then quickens 2 and half out. I just hope he will be hard to pass that side. Down the stands side I can see Toormore back to being a pacer rather than taking a chance he pulls again, like in the 2000 Guineas. Yuften improved from the front in the PJP and William Haggas has entered him in the Eclipse (same cross as Ektihaam who got 12f ). I hope he front runs and there is more of a stronger pace stands side for Moohaarib. |
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Also interesting Lads cut Arod from 25/1 to 16's and he is looking blue on Oddschecker just like Moohaarib. In contrast to Night of Thunder looking red out to 11/4?
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Forget that about the stalls and draw as just seen the Russian Rhythm race in 2004 when they had 15 runners, the stalls were on the far side! Who knows where the stalls will be?
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No my search actually led to a Korean commentary of the 1000Guineas 2003. So forget that as well. Will keep searching.
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Biggest field I can remember with 18 running, has to be due to increased prize money. Just hope best horse wins and no had luck stories. Sticking with the favourite here.
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18 runner group 1 ....your avin a larf
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Night Of Thunder for me and I have thrown a few coppers e/w at Master Carpenter.
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well after a good drink i am still struggling with an angle betting wise in the race...lots can win and it really is an open betting heat...as much as i think night of thunder is the stand out and i believe is well drawn, he is tough to play at the price we are getting, i still believe he will win if running to his maximum and the race will be run to suit him but i just haven't got him as far clear as the betting suggests he should be, i will have a couple of sheckles saver but on this occasion i have to play the good filly as think she is really good and the ground should be fine...hors de comabat is a horse i think is far better than he has shown and see him running a major race here but maybe just a place play is the angle with him although we have to have a couple of pounds of the 28's
tough stuff so good luck if you have a serious bet in an open betting heat imo |
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Night of Thunder 11-4 =26.67%
Integral 11-2 = 15.39% Total = 42.06% That's an 11-8 bet on proven group 1 form prevailing. They are both straight track, good ground milers. Take any ten of their rivals out, and they'd be much shorter. The big field is leading to muddled thinking about horses like Custom Cut etc. I have no idea who will win but over time 11-8 on group 1 form will do fine for me. |
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Integral is a standout for me, on her best form with the allowance I have her 5lbs clear of her nearest rival, Night of Thunder. There's always a risk backing a horse first time out as it has to be taken on trust that it retains its old ability but at least we know this is a target rather than a pipe opener so Stoute must think she's ready.
As for Night of Thunder, in my view his subsequent runs after the Guineas were never as good, so the question is whether he can return to that early season form of last year's Guineas. I don't know the answer to that but even if he can I believe he needs to improve again. The rest will need to improve even more. If Integral retains her ability from last year and Stoute has her primed I think she's going to be very hard to beat and at these odds I'm having a decent bet. |
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So disappointing Karakontie not here
 , I am left with Night Of Thunder a horse I just don't like, Yuften is interesting for a place at a much bigger price. |
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Very competitive this. Mooharib and Aljamaaheer were going to be my two but a bit worried about the rain.
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'Bigger the field, the bigger the certainty' - If Night Of Thunder is fit then he should surely beat these and 3/1 is a fair price. Integral is a very good GP1 filly but it's hard to judge her based on beating her own sex - she was thrashed in the QEII, admittedly on horrible ground. She was especially impressive at Royal Ascot last year so a straight flattish mile on G/F might be her best conditions so she is feared but I can't bring myself to back her.
The rest of them are much of a muchness and if the big two fail to fire anything could happen. I backed Trade Storm this morning @ 44 but he is now a non runner, so have gone for Captain Cat @ 30 instead. He's a total dog but the big field should help him travel into the race - what he finds is anyones guess. I'll put an 'in running' lay bet up at 6/1 to try to cover my stake. |
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I'd ignore Integral's last run as they were in two minds about running so soon after the Sun Chariot.
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Greened out on Arod as no confidence behind him today. So Moohaarib only for me now. Good luck everyone.
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Appreciate it's not the Lockinge but Izzthatright is surely too big in the 2.35 even with the penalty. The worry is that he's traveled and settled alright from the middle east but at 25/1 that's more than built in imo.
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Ground faster as the day went on yesterday and possibly good but firmer so says Mr Osgood a while ago on RUK and time fair in the first race but we'll know more come 2.40 after the Listed race over 6f.
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well i was looking at the draw from the big mile handicap earlier in the season when they came centre and low numbers dominated but not sure whether they may come centre to stands side today so just wonder how much this will be against night of thunder drawn right out on the flank, the only thing in his favour appears to be the speed that is that side with the free goer arod likely to be up there along with custom cut but will they be sitting ducks to the closers, will be interesting where tudhope goes
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They may go in 2 groups if there is two spare with end of starting stalls? I still think Yuften and Toormore will be much pacier on the stands side group if that happens.
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yep you don't wanna be high
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No harry, I'm thinking 2 groups and better pace stands side for those drawn high?
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Mind you Moohaarib is only 3 away from Integral if she runs prominantly, so 12 might not be that bad if they come up the centre?
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think your alright in 12 but i wouldn't want to be any higher myself and tbh i'm just having a bet on hors to place and the good filly who was a nice juicy price earlier i think you might get a couple of stragglers high but the rest will come down the centre...just seems like a swamp stands side to me
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well done sint and others small stuff for me but a good thread
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Well done sint and Howellsy for keeping it simple, and other NOT backers. Disappointing for me that Integral couldn't even stay on for the place but think she could do better for the run.
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I think Toormore has run a cracker from the draw. With Moohaarib obviously class made the difference but it may also be the case of goes on it once but not again. Thought had a decent bet at 20+. As for Arod this is a vast improvement but not good enough. Night of Thunder worthy winner on all accounts. Well done his backers.
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arod ran well at last some progress
gunna be a very tight year for milers this year, they do look an average bunch as do the 3 year olds...lots of tight betting heats |
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I think with discussion we can get an edge harry callaghan. Been a pleasure this blog.
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Agreed harry, not outstanding form and I'd say NOT hasn't really improved from last year, not that he needed to today for his backers. Some might see him capable of better but I'd be wanting to take him on in future at a short price, similar to Toronado last year after his first time out win. I'm not normally one for following horses over a cliff but even though Integral was beaten fair and square today I'll be giving her one more chance next time to overturn this form, as I'm reluctant to downgrade her just yet and it wouldn't be the first time one has been left slightly undercooked first time out.
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indeed madhu always edges just wish i'd stuck with my first thoughts and kept it simple, however i did think the ground had got plenty fast enough for the winner, so fair play to him for knuckling down, the draw was advantageous imo though...integral ran a good race figgis its a shame she jumped so well and was forced to be right on the speed, she payed for that late on imo i'd say the windsor forest is hers for the taking because although she was bet late on i'd put that down to moore rather than a gamble, she was very weak in the betting before moores 4 fold so like you say she is likely to progress from this
i dare not have an aftertime but the winner winning isn't a complete disaster for me placed a double a few weeks ago so there is hope, we just have to pray on the derby winner!!!!  easy |
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I hope they send her for the Queen Anne rather than the Windsor Forest as I still believe she could be good enough and there will be little value in the WF. I reckon Stoute would've had the Queen Anne in mind before today's race so if he does send her there I'd take confidence that he believes she can do better.
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this was a good result for the form book, outstanding form from last year, has proven its worth today.
kingman was one of the special highlights last year and horse of the year, and NOT beat that one. integral has only won group 1 fillies and mares races. |
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Yes, maybe you could've put forward that view before the race?
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you dont listen to others views anyway! you have got your own ratings. ask any form reader which horse had the best form in that race and they will all tell you the same. if i put that view up before the race, wouldnt of made an iota of difference to you.
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You're right, it wouldn't have made any difference to my bets, but it might've made you look something more than an aftertime merchant.
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yeah yeah, doesnt make me look a fool like you and your ratings
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