Forums

Horse Antepost

Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
IrisDeBalme
24 Mar 15 23:07
Joined:
Date Joined: 17 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 2,001 | Blogger: IrisDeBalme's blog
was his quote

and hopefully he will pick SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR.... for the Grand National.

Horse has the right profile - already won a National, trained by Jonjo who knows how to win national type races... and hopefully McCoys last race...

Surely the fairytale doesnt get bigger than this.

I am putting a big bet on - so if McCoy retires I can retire (on a holiday) too.

Good Luck.
Pause Switch to Standard View McCoy - I will go out on a high and...
Show More
Loading...
Report IrisDeBalme March 24, 2015 10:08 PM GMT
Is anyone else gonna make it there main (big) bet?
Report Shrews March 24, 2015 10:31 PM GMT
So-so record in the race  3,UR,F,3,1,7,F,10,3,CO, and the horse will surely go off favourite as the media and public latch on to the story.

He's never been lacking in motivation, so I doubt there can be any 'extra' motivation to boost his chances, if that was true then it would of happened more for him at Cheltenham.

That said, he's a great jockey and should always be respected.  8/1 isn't for me though, but it will surely go even shorter than that, which is a bit silly in a race like this.

National gamble, bookies nightmare, which bookie will be first to offer 20/1 for new accounts?  Laugh
Report IrisDeBalme March 24, 2015 10:39 PM GMT
Well I suppose the bookies were saved by Annie Power falling on the first day of Cheltenham...

but surely this will be a result they will dread more? Thus are taking no chances on the prices...

At ths stage should be a 12/1 shot surely and yes 8/1 is ridiculous - but the concern is with the hype it may go shorter... so I have put some bets to start my pot and will continue to do so... but will wait till the day and hope the bookies are competitive and be giving atleast 10s or 12s... then the gamble can start...

Well unless he goes for Cause of Causes - then may as well delete this thread.
Report Facts March 25, 2015 2:16 AM GMT
I agree with you. Ignore the  'McCoy' factor, the horse has the ability to win this, and have backed it at bigger odds than currently available.
Add the McCoy factor, and the ' Fairytale story ' element. It's a shoe in !

Good luck Happy
Report Big_Issue March 25, 2015 7:59 AM GMT
Did some quick sums last night, dividing the amount matched per horse by the total bet on the AP Market, to get a % market share which can be converted to what should be the price.

Shutthefrontdoor accounted for £79K of the £600K matched so far which means if weight of money is anything to go by, then it's price should be 7.6 and not the 9.2 available. This equates to near 21% 'overpriced'.

The only other horse 'underpriced' viz-a-vee weight of money was Spring Heeled which was 4% overpriced @ 26 on here. Others close to the mark were Rocky Creek (99%) Balthazer King (98%) Godsmejudge (99%)  Teaforthree (94%) and Night In Milan (94%). Most of the others were miles off what their price should be according to volumes bet.

No idea if this means anything but had 20 mins to spare and seemed like something to do.
Report Facts March 25, 2015 9:18 AM GMT
Interesting. I've backed 4 horses for the National, and these are in the 7 you mention.
Report IrisDeBalme March 25, 2015 9:37 AM GMT
Interesting Big_Issue

My four for the National are

SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR
AL CO
SAINT ARE
NIGHT IN MILAN

My each bet way will be OSCAR TIME

I think its important to limit to 4/5 once you go for 6 or 7 you find your list moves to 10 etc... I know people that back 10-15 horses which is ludicrous... as it takes the gambling aspect out really.
Report Steamship March 25, 2015 2:08 PM GMT
The way the race is now I think it is better to back 6,7 or more. I backed Auroras Encore when it won and would not have done if narrowed down to 4 or 5. I also backed the foxhunters winner at 100-1. I think I was just looking for big prices in 2013.
Report DHB March 25, 2015 4:23 PM GMT
God knows who the last horse is to win off only 6 chase starts. I suspect it's Corbiere or earlier.
Report breadnbutter March 29, 2015 11:57 PM BST
tartan snow Love
Report stevo1 April 4, 2015 12:10 AM BST
Surely decent back to lay,as will go off under 5/1,after all hype in week leading up to race?
Report Howdi April 4, 2015 1:01 AM BST
^^^ agree just pray he dont get injured
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com