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IrisDeBalme
24 Mar 15 23:07
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Date Joined: 17 Jul 04
| Topic/replies: 2,015 | Blogger: IrisDeBalme's blog
was his quote

and hopefully he will pick SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR.... for the Grand National.

Horse has the right profile - already won a National, trained by Jonjo who knows how to win national type races... and hopefully McCoys last race...

Surely the fairytale doesnt get bigger than this.

I am putting a big bet on - so if McCoy retires I can retire (on a holiday) too.

Good Luck.

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Replies: 12
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 24 Mar 15 23:08
Is anyone else gonna make it there main (big) bet?
By:
Shrews
When: 24 Mar 15 23:31
So-so record in the race  3,UR,F,3,1,7,F,10,3,CO, and the horse will surely go off favourite as the media and public latch on to the story.

He's never been lacking in motivation, so I doubt there can be any 'extra' motivation to boost his chances, if that was true then it would of happened more for him at Cheltenham.

That said, he's a great jockey and should always be respected.  8/1 isn't for me though, but it will surely go even shorter than that, which is a bit silly in a race like this.

National gamble, bookies nightmare, which bookie will be first to offer 20/1 for new accounts?  Laugh
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 24 Mar 15 23:39
Well I suppose the bookies were saved by Annie Power falling on the first day of Cheltenham...

but surely this will be a result they will dread more? Thus are taking no chances on the prices...

At ths stage should be a 12/1 shot surely and yes 8/1 is ridiculous - but the concern is with the hype it may go shorter... so I have put some bets to start my pot and will continue to do so... but will wait till the day and hope the bookies are competitive and be giving atleast 10s or 12s... then the gamble can start...

Well unless he goes for Cause of Causes - then may as well delete this thread.
By:
Facts
When: 25 Mar 15 03:16
I agree with you. Ignore the  'McCoy' factor, the horse has the ability to win this, and have backed it at bigger odds than currently available.
Add the McCoy factor, and the ' Fairytale story ' element. It's a shoe in !

Good luck Happy
By:
Big_Issue
When: 25 Mar 15 08:59
Did some quick sums last night, dividing the amount matched per horse by the total bet on the AP Market, to get a % market share which can be converted to what should be the price.

Shutthefrontdoor accounted for £79K of the £600K matched so far which means if weight of money is anything to go by, then it's price should be 7.6 and not the 9.2 available. This equates to near 21% 'overpriced'.

The only other horse 'underpriced' viz-a-vee weight of money was Spring Heeled which was 4% overpriced @ 26 on here. Others close to the mark were Rocky Creek (99%) Balthazer King (98%) Godsmejudge (99%)  Teaforthree (94%) and Night In Milan (94%). Most of the others were miles off what their price should be according to volumes bet.

No idea if this means anything but had 20 mins to spare and seemed like something to do.
By:
Facts
When: 25 Mar 15 10:18
Interesting. I've backed 4 horses for the National, and these are in the 7 you mention.
By:
IrisDeBalme
When: 25 Mar 15 10:37
Interesting Big_Issue

My four for the National are

SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR
AL CO
SAINT ARE
NIGHT IN MILAN

My each bet way will be OSCAR TIME

I think its important to limit to 4/5 once you go for 6 or 7 you find your list moves to 10 etc... I know people that back 10-15 horses which is ludicrous... as it takes the gambling aspect out really.
By:
Steamship
When: 25 Mar 15 15:08
The way the race is now I think it is better to back 6,7 or more. I backed Auroras Encore when it won and would not have done if narrowed down to 4 or 5. I also backed the foxhunters winner at 100-1. I think I was just looking for big prices in 2013.
By:
DHB
When: 25 Mar 15 17:23
God knows who the last horse is to win off only 6 chase starts. I suspect it's Corbiere or earlier.
By:
breadnbutter
When: 29 Mar 15 23:57
tartan snow Love
By:
stevo1
When: 04 Apr 15 00:10
Surely decent back to lay,as will go off under 5/1,after all hype in week leading up to race?
By:
Howdi
When: 04 Apr 15 01:01
^^^ agree just pray he dont get injured
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