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Grand National Thoughts ... .. .
Grand National Thoughts ... .. .
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I'm on
Alvarado 40's Cause of Causes 33's Soll 66's Ely Brown 100 and 200's Also The Package at 66's if he gets in. If he doesn't may back on more. Maybe Mon Parrain or Raz de Maree once see final field. |
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Money starting to come for Night In Milan
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ALVARADO, a staying-on fourth in the Crabbies Grand National last season, bids for Aintree glory again in the £1m race on Saturday, writes Danny Hall.
The chestnut with the distinctive white blaze, has been prepared specially for the race by his Fossebridge-based trainer Fergal O’Brien. In his long spell as head lad to Nigel Twiston-Davies at Naunton, Fergal was a key player in the training of two National heroes, Earth Summit (1998) and Bindaree (2002). Last season Alvarado had three prep races but had not run since January and his trainer felt he may have been too fresh at Aintree which caused him to fight his jockey in the early stages and drop well off the pace. This time around O’Brien has sent Alvarado to the races just once, in a veterans’ handicap chase at Doncaster in the middle of January when he did everything asked of him by connections in finishing fifth. But O’Brien took the precaution of giving his charge a strong racecourse gallop on an away day to Newbury recently. O’Brien said: “He worked over a mile and six furlongs with a stable-mate and went really well. Fingers crossed for Aintree – we’re very happy with him.” Alvarado will certainly not lack for expertise in the saddle – his jockey Paul Moloney has finished in the first four in the last six runnings including on this horse last year. .....getting excited about this one  |
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Goonyella to sneak in? Has chances on his run behind Shutthefrontdoor on gd/Yield and of course he won the Midlands National in March. JJ Burke booked to ride this and Raz De Maree but whereas RDM doesn't have much chance unless it's soft, this one might. RDM to be withdrawn maybe?
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Goonyella won't get in ......again.
Higher handicap mark after winning the Midlands Grand National will see him comfortably in next year. With a run assured next year ,he would be running over hurdles until next April if he was mine. |
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Shrews
Goonyella needs it hock deep ! |
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He wants it hock deep but doesn't need it hock deep. If he gets in, his mark is not too far off Shutthefrontdoor's on their run in the 2014 Irish National. Probably won't get a run anyway!
A few horses on the RP site tonight showing as riderless including Shutthefrontdoor. Any problems there or just an RP glitch? |
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Over the Aintree trip Goonyella would not need very soft ground , he won't get it in , but will be a big player next year with his higher handicap mark.
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top 40 stand their ground
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I think it is a myth that Goonyella needs it hock deep.
He is by Presenting who generally bounce off good ground but also perform well on heavy. He ran Plinth to half a length on yielding ground over 2m 6f hurdles. Perhaps Fairyhouse is not his course, so it`s a bit harsh to judge him on his Irish National run. |
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Well it was a bog at Utttoxeter, and he hosed up.hth.
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That`s a more sensible way of putting it Facts.
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Thanks !!
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Carliot Brigante out, gutted
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Still smarting at Carlito missing out, thought he had a great chance, hopefully trainer can get him down a few pounds from 147 and have him primed for next year, when he'll only be 10.
Back to this years; I still have a couple of nice ew bets on Alvarado and Al Co, and very happy, they will run big races. I usually like to have three running for me, and I spent a good bit of time looking for one at a nice price. However, I just cannot get away from Rocky Creek, he might only be 10/1 and its not normally a price that would interest me in this race, but there are too many positives, none more so than Nicholls form. Win bet at 10/1 taken. Can't wait, love this race. Good luck everyone with your bets. |
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As I wrote it is no good backing jockeys that have won the race in the past, I just forgot to add unless it was the previous year or owned by Trevor Hemmings.
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Going to have to change selection rules. Winner 8 year old and had a hard race at Cheltenham.
Alvarado placed only consolation. |
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aye, Alvarado done well. Trends buster this one, 2nd top weight, only a lb off, carried 11.09 - fair play to anyone who backed him, I could never have him as I thought this was an afterthought, too much weight, not his ground etc. goes to show.
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^ it was his ground alright. Thanks to overwatering. It was soft.
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Alvarado got me some money back . ground must have been soft for Monbeg Dude to get placed . i think Cause of causes ran a good race for a 7 year old and could well be a big player in the next few years . Winner was a blow to the trend guys like myself but can not work out all the time .
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Against what ? The standard time for completing the National ? I.e all Nationals run., not just since they changed the shape of the whole race by fence modifications, making it easier to race over, and therefore quicker.
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Many Clouds was definitely not my idea of the winner. However I am delighted that such a classy animal emerged victorious. Pleased for the trainer as he seems to be a top bloke. The Druids Nephew looked desperately unlucky and would surely have gone close. Best news of all though was that Many Clouds was ok: I was a little worried post-race. Can you imagine if he hadn't made it?
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trends are now finished for the national now surely in the lasr few years you,d have to add in
french breds 8 yr old 2nd top weight gold cup runners hennesy winner,been on the go all season gold cup runner at least this should end all this hurdle preps hiding your light under a bushel carp,its just a long distance handicap these days |
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only the fourth 8 year old winner in 40 years and carried more weight than every winner since Red Rum carried 12 stone in 1974 . i will keep faith in trends . on this occasion i think you just have to admire a brilliant weight carrying performance from this youngster and see if defends next year or goes for Gold cup . i doubt he will try both again as gap between the two back to 3 weeks .
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The one trend that continues to hold up is needing more than one run in a season. If horses like Alvarado & Shutthefrontdoor had been giving more runs that would have gone to Aintree fitter. It really doesn't matter what the trainer does at home or what horses fill the places. The fittest horses wins and needs running.
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*they
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I used to swear by trends for analyzing races and its taken me 30 years of betting to realise it really is all ballcocks. Look at how the Hennessy has changed over the years. Up until Strong Flow only 2 horses had won in the past 18 years carrying over 11 stone since Burrough Hill Lad humped topweight to victory in 1984. Now 9 of the last 12 have carried 11 stone or over. Why? Whats changed? Nothing.
The racing Post had two attempts at picking the winner on saturday using different sets of statistics. The first one picked out Over The Bay. The next one Al Co with a few others being flagged up. The winner wasnt amongst them. You have to simply delve through the form book and make your own opinion, regardless of whether it fits a trend. The funny thing is that 20 years ago when they said the national was a lottery they were wrong because there was so much dead wood that could be weeded out. Now,with the rules they brought in about horse and jockey experience added to the massive prize money, far more horses have a chance of sorts that it really has become a lottery. |
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i will be quite happy to keep using all the tried and trusted trends for the grand national . the only one i would be flexible with in the future is the weights . 3/6 last winners carried 11-5 or more . Many Clouds performance was the best for many a year and as he can carry only 1 lb more next year and be a stronger 9 year old he could well be first horse since Red Rum to follow up .
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I must admit, I thought of this stat as he crossed the line.