Horse Antepost
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When are the entries out? Any early fancies / lightly raced 4 year olds of interest?
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Levitate rip
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http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/racecards/28-03-2015/doncaster/racecard/659363/betway-lincoln-heritage-handicap
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The normal huge number of entries including the usual dross (does Scott Dixon really think his 75 rated AW Best Tamayuz is going to get a run) headed by Bronze Angel rated 111 and last years winner Ocean Tempest (rated 110 and won off 102) plus Ryan's other entry Tenor. I can see Ryan running Ocean Tempest or both even this as he doesn't seem to mind his horses humping top weight in these handicaps. The lowest rated runner last year was Off Art rated 93 so anything below that probably going to struggle to get a run, maybe 91 at best. Currently 62 horses rated 91 or higher and last year's safety limit was 22 runners. though only 17 ran (scandalous) and RP shows 5 non-runners. One of these was One More Word which carried my Antepost Cash and was withdrawn at the start though subsequently was well beaten in the Newbury Spring Cup.
So, on the basis we are looking for 4/5 year olds that have won over at least a mile, previously raced over further, won a Class 3 or better handicap over 8F, ran it's best race in one of it's last 2 starts, no run on the AWT or over jumps, and likely to carry less than 9-0 (so lets say rated between 98 and 91) we can start to thin the field out a bit. The two that best seem to fit for me would therefore be Mange All from the Haggas yard (won race before with similar type) and Munaseer of Michael Stoute's, can't say as I remember two many runners in this race from the Yard but they do have a decent strike rate with 4YO+ handicappers early season. Both finished last year with decent runs in both their last two starts behind Munaseer actually 2lbs better off for beating Mange All a length behind GM Hopkins (5lbs worse off with both and now off 99 and slightly disappointed on last two starts) so lets have that as the first choice at the price with Mange All as a secondary bet. Munasser @ 20/1 Mange All @ 16/1 I'm sure there are others that warrant consideration but just tried to apply a few statistics and a bit of common sense to my reasoning. Good luck to all who play this one Ante Post. |
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Ok it's Munaaser not the two variations I wrote above!!
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Dipped in on Shyron @ 25s... due to run at Lingfield next Saturday...
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We have the faux Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton on Saturday. I guess the winner gets a 5lb penalty in the Lincoln?
Six of them actually engaged in the Lincoln from what I can see, Billingsgate down to Starfield on Saturday's card. The Roger Varian trained Mindurownbusiness will probably be a worthy favourite after beating half the field easily enough last time at Lingfield but is now rated 7lb higher at 97 though will be off his Entry rating of 90 plus penalty(s) for the Lincoln. I don't think anything has come out of the Wolverhampton race to win the actual big one, so probably Saturday is the day rather than in 3 weeks time. Not much betting wise seemingly going on though Mange All seems to have had some suppport and now vying for favouritism in some books. |
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Mindurownbusiness does the business today, quite tidily and now vies for favouritism in a weak betting market so far it would seem.
Nice to see a bit of blue for Munaaser as low as 12/1 with PP but still 20/1 with Ladcrokes, |
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I've liked Munaaser since the entries came out as well - just wasn't sure if he is a definite runner so hadn't backed it yet. He was entered in the Winter Derby but I see he has been taken out at the latest forfeit stage so hopefully the Lincoln is the plan.
Munaaser 1pt @ 20/1 |
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uncle...Stoute quoted in today's Post as follows: "It depends if we can get him there in time, but the plan is to run Munaaser in the Lincoln if we can."
Report also states that Moore, Hanagan and O'Neill are all likely to be in Dubai that day so Ted Durcan, now riding work at Stoute's, "could be in the mix" for the ride. Don't know if you'd regard that as a positive. |
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Donny Rover put some decent runs together last season.A tough beast that wont go down without a fight.
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Thanks for the info Augustine - not exactly filling me with hope. Knew I should have waited till the 5 day stage.
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Betting been suspended for a couple of days. Anyone know why.
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Guess it was an entry declaration stage? Seems to be open again now
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Only the weekend after next now and Mange All seems to be the one for money in the race and is as low as 6/1 with some books. Some South London 'Geezer' at Cheltenham last week told me (unprompted) that he had contacts within the Haggas Yard and this was the one for the Lincoln. Okay, I take this with a pinch of salt but at least it looks like being a probable for the race.
Stoute's comments could be taken two ways in my book, either it's not going to run or it's a definite and they fancy it like mad! At least some money around for it now and shortened with most books which offers some promise of it being there on the day. |
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I think the big issue, Big Issue, with your selections is that one trainer habitually targets the race and one absolutely doesnt. I think we know which one does!
Gabrials kaka was an obvious pick after his unlucky run at Ascot lto but really needs dig in the ground so is short enough just now. The one i do like at a price is Hillbillyboy who ran a lovely race after 8 months off at the weekend, won at the meeting first time up last year and was generally progressive for a small yard running some excellent races, shaping as though the stepup in trip wont be an issue. is presumably been targeted at the race and 33-1 generally will do for me. Hillbillyboy 33-1 e/w generally |
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ATR bloke has tipped Mange All
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Gary Nuttings view:
http://www.attheraces.com/article.aspx?hlid=264965&lid=&raceid=&title=Ante-Post+Focus&ref=Tips+and+Analysis&nav=tips&sub=&day=Tue |
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With Munaaser looking an unlikely runner I have now gone in for Zarwaan who is definitely being aimed at the race according to Ed Dunlops website.
Zarwaan - 2pt @ 20/1 |
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Still waiting to have my first ever winner of this race and I have been punting since the early 70s.
Had a little e-w on Dream Spirit, a Haggas horse that has won on soft over 1ml so should likely get the optimum conditions. Only had the 4 runs so open to bags of improvement and the trainer can ready one for this race. Don't know if it's a guaranteed runner though. GL |
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Just looking at Mange All's profile and he looks the PERFECT horse...ON PAPER. Course form, stays further, handles cut if needed, and lightly raced enough to be ahead of his mark of 97. Trends wise I bet he hits every requirement too. But it can't be that simple can it, surely?
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WAITING.
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Varian quoted today as saying may go for AWT Championships with Munurownbusiness despite being 6lb well in for the Lincoln after it's latest win.
Meamwhile, Varian has warned that leading Betway Lincoln hope Mindurownbusiness could sidestep the race for All-Weather Championships Finals Day at Lingfield on Good Friday. Although yet to make a decision, the Newmarket handler is contemplating keeping the four-year-old back for the one-mile championship race on April 3 as opposed to running him at Doncaster on the opening day of the turf season on March 28. Since joining Varian, the son of Cape Cross has won two of his three starts, most recently when claiming the Ladbrokes Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton earlier this month. Varian said: "Mindurownbusiness is in the Lincoln, but he has also qualified for the mile championship race on Good Friday at Lingfield. "I am not committed which way he goes to be honest. If he runs in the Lincoln he would be 6lb 'well in' on paper, but he has put in two good performances on the all-weather in his last two runs and there is a temptation to stay there. Both races require consideration." However, the Kremlin House Stables handler could have his mind made up for him as to which route he takes by the weather. Varian said: "The ground might play a part, as he doesn't want soft ground. If it stays dry then the Lincoln is a possibility, but if the rains come next week he is unlikely to run in the Lincoln." |
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sint, I'll play devil's advocate. Course form, he got beat. Stays further, maybe too far. Handles cut, prefer firm. 5-2 favourite for silver cambridgeshire,got beat in that, perhaps he's not entirely straight forward. Bit one paced, maybe.
Couple of other trainers won't give him the race yet, but yes, looks to have a great chance. Price has gone, if it was ever there. |
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Oh he was 16's, good then.
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Not backing him Soul. Marco Botti's Moohaarib is interesting at a price too given he is considering the Listed race on the same card, OR is 100.
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Marco Botti is hoping for cut in the ground so he can get Moohaarib off to an early start in the turf season.
Lincoln Handicap Antepost: Moohaarib 16/1 Marco Botti: Pondering crack at the Lincoln Related ContentLive horse racing resultsRacecards and formSign up free to My StableLatest video form£5 free bet every week with the Sky Bet ClubFree £50 matched bet The four-year-old holds an entry in the Betway Lincoln Handicap, the traditional curtain-raiser to the Flat campaign at Doncaster on March 28. Botti is also thinking of putting the Oasis Dream colt in the Betway In The App Store Doncaster Mile on the same day to give him another option. "We are considering the Lincoln, but there is also a Listed race the same day," said the Newmarket handler. Profiles Moohaarib M Botti "We just want to see what the ground is going to be like. He wants juice in the ground. If it's good to firm he probably won't run, but if it's on the soft side he will. "He's done well over the winter. He ended the season finishing fifth in a Listed race in France (on Polytrack at Deauville) which I thought was a good run. "He wasn't beaten far and perhaps he's a better horse on grass anyway. I think he has improved for being a four-year-old. He's up to that level and is rated 100." |
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The perils of ante-post bets as Munaaser announced as not running in Lincoln:
The four-year-old is among the leading fancies for the Doncaster heat on Saturday week after winning at Newmarket and chasing home Gm Hopkins in the Silver Cambridgeshire last year. However, the New Approach gelding will sidestep the ultra-competitive one-mile heat as Stoute believes the race will come too soon. He said: "He won't be running in the Lincoln as he won't be ready in time." Must just like wasting entry fees some people  |
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I like Ocean Tempest - similar form to last year - ran in Meydan - did nothing then hosed up in the Lincoln bit more weight but think connections have an eye on this.
Also GABRIELS KAKA - Have a lot of respect for this horse - expect him to be half the odds... sometimes its good to have a Fahey horse in your shortlist... I think he will be a much better horse this season. |
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Not much rain to come, won't be soft.
Always look at Fahey first and bet Gabrial e.w. with small saver on Gabrials Kaka. Goes well fresh, course winner, well handicapped, after 5 runs over further brought his h'cap mark down. Won well back at a mile at end of last season, still on a nice mark. Was loving Ocean Tempest e.w. for day of race,1st 5 a place. Couldn't see price going and now he won't get his favoured ground, even more so. Knocked my confidence a bit. Joe Doyle rides and the 5lb claim is needed. |
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I like Ocean Tempest - similar form to last year - ran in Meydan - did nothing then hosed up in the Lincoln bit more weight but think connections have an eye on this.
Praying for rain. Won off 115 at Chester. Highest OR ever won off. Had his holiday in the sun again. |
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Never any chat about what type of track a Lincoln winner needs to have performed at,or any other race come to that.Strange?.
Same as the Cambs,stamina in pedigree,a speed horse,if horse ONLY has form on a stiff track with a bend and poss small field well thats a negative. |
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the word is zarwaan
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We await your enlightenment on these issues Pipedreamer.
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Big Issue,well it used to be easy years ago.In my 45 years of punting i have never known a time such as this that winners have been so hard to come by.
Memories of Foggy Bell, Blustery,Star of a Gunner,Streams of Gold are a few that i tipped people. Now i am down to making a book around 6 horses,i do ok but its the clues that are lacking.Whether its the Derby [Mars] or any other race we are faced with a barrage of horses who appeared to stagger over the line in the past,even a horse that wins comfortably these days is hit with a 14 pound hike. so winners come from out of nowhere and disappear into oblivion,[don't win again].Years ago one could spot a horse winning with 2 stone in hand,[Red Ark,won at Southwell of 98,won Greenals off 144!!!!!]unfortunately not now!!!!!!. So you see racing has lost its romance,its mediocre,bland,how can new punters get enticed into the game when nobody can pronounce the names of the horses!!!!!!!!!!.Still theres always Bogsnog. Hopefully things will be clearer on the day.Good luck to all. |
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Big Issue,well it used to be easy years ago.In my 45 years of punting i have never known a time such as this that winners have been so hard to come by.
Memories of Foggy Bell, Blustery,Star of a Gunner,Streams of Gold are a few that i tipped people. Now i am down to making a book around 6 horses,i do ok but its the clues that are lacking.Whether its the Derby [Mars] or any other race we are faced with a barrage of horses who appeared to stagger over the line in the past,even a horse that wins comfortably these days is hit with a 14 pound hike. so winners come from out of nowhere and disappear into oblivion,[don't win again].Years ago one could spot a horse winning with 2 stone in hand,[Red Ark,won at Southwell of 98,won Greenals off 144!!!!!]unfortunately not now!!!!!!. So you see racing has lost its romance,its mediocre,bland,how can new punters get enticed into the game when nobody can pronounce the names of the horses!!!!!!!!!!.Still theres always Bogsnog. Hopefully things will be clearer on the day.Good luck to all. |
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I'm with betilyerded, and went Hillbilly Boy 33's each way. Bet him a few times last year, and quite like him. Decent comeback at The Weekend, and worth a go at the price.
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Couldn't have Hillbilly, never won or even placed over 8F on turf, never raced further than a mile, exc when PU in Novice Hurdle. Doesn't tick many boxes to me,but good luck.
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You sound like Brigust, Pipedreamer.
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No worries Big Issue, I'm wrong a lot more than I'm right
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