LONGINES HK INTERNATIONAL RACES 2014

As always, looking forward to this HK!

The sprint was a total mess.

Able Friend was very impressive in the Mile.

Howdy HK and FS, hope you guys are doing well!! I can't believe how quick this has come around again but always one of my favourite meetings of the year.

Listened to the races on the HKJC stream Sunday and then watched them on You Tube. Able Friend was awesome, he travelled powerfully and finished with a superb turn of foot. It was a great prep and he did it very easy, I will be shocked if he doesn't win the HK Mile after that.

I was surprised Military Attack moved to Casper Fownes but he couldn't have gone to a better trainer IMO. He looks to have added some extra spark to MA and his win a couple of weeks ago in the Sha Tin Trophy (8f G2 Handicap) was another surprise but he backed that up again on Sunday getting mugged near the line... again!! Designs On Rome probably was the one to take out the race (raced wide) and it does look like John Moore is bringing him along very steadily this time so he fires on the big day. Blazing Speed ran another fine race but will he go for the Cup or the Vase?! The big question though is will Just A way turn up for the HK Cup or will he stay at home, I haven't got a clue?!

My old mate Lucky Nine was the one to take out the Jockey Club Sprint, he travelled the best but got no run whatsoever. Prebble had to wait and wait then take him back to get a run but when he did get some clear space he showed a fantastic finish... he's STILL GOT IT and I will be hoping there are some nice prices knocking around with the UK bookmakers on the day.

Lucky enough to be going this year. Can't wait!! Haven't got the first clue about the form over there so trying to learn quickly

Hello all, very well this end thanks, hope you all are well too,  looking forward as usual to the big day. I agree with you on all counts Mr D but I would be careful in the mile as Glorious Days is having a similar prep to last year and I understand the owners are being very quiet so this normally means they are confident!! I did also like Ambitious Dragons run as he seemed to be held in at a crucial time by JM on AF but AF did it very easily - think you'd be biting someone's hand off if you got evens!!! I just can't get DOR at all - I've backed him heavily in his last 2 runs and his last 2 victories last season I backed MA and AF against him.... He's cost me loads!!! Blazing Speed is staying in the cup and I think the grey horse is going for the vase.

CCM - look at the hkjc website under horse racing, they publish a form guide 2 days before every meeting, there's also a race review program the night before a meeting that you can watch a replay of on the hkjc website - it should help. Hope you're also getting in early enough in the week so you get the Wednesday meeting at happy valley?

Thanks HK. Really appreciate the advice. No unfortunately not... Get there Friday am. Just a short visit this time.... Have done HV before though.

Yep HK, Glorious Days was the one that got me kicking myself last year. I remember his connections were full of positive vibes in build up and he went and did what they thought. GD will be a danger to Able Friend if he's in the same form.

I was so impressed with AF Sunday though and I can't see him getting beat. He looks like he's developed into an absolute beast physically and the way he travelled throughout the race was super slick. RaceBets are offering 2-1 at the moment and the only UK bookies showing prices for the HK rcaes... very tempting!

RPost report that selected runners will be announced tomorrow (Wednesday) for all four HKIR G1 races, should be interesting.

The HK Cup looks the hardest race to pick a winner at this stage but if Military Attack gets a good draw I think that will sway me, it's like déjà vu! Casper Fownes EW double as well.

2-1 is way too temptin, he'll be odds with HKJC come race day - Moore also thought he'd come on for the run when interviewed last week!!! But, he did get turned over in the G1 race in May when odds on.

http://www.hkjc.com/english/corporate/racing_news_item.asp?in_file=/english/...

AF's defeat to Variety Club in the Champions Mile did put some doubt in my head but AF had a lot of races in a short period of time before that race. I'm prepared to forgive him that run and the fact VC is no mug and was in the form of his life that day.

I'll have a Moore double in the mile and cup, sprint we need to know the draw and the vase goes to Flintshire as long as he settles in HK. AF AT 2-1 is huge when you look at the field.

Yep HK, nothing to fear by the look of it... this is going to be a big bet for me.

The Cup horses all seem beat each other, tough race!!!

In the sprint I heard that the guys from Singapore are quietly confident about Spalato - ignore the trial run especially as it was drawn in the river.

Rare to see the bookies have such different views on a race. PP as low as 4-6 on Able friend whilst he is widely available at 5-4. Don't you think Gold Fun looks value at 6-1?

CCM - think he's probably value as an ew bet, he's not that dependent on the draw (same for AF), but I really couldn't see him beating AF based on their last race, and the May run when GF was behind AF. The only thing that could stop AF going off odds-on is if they smash into Glorious Days again like last year's race.

Glorious Days ran a trial the other day too - seemed to go along nicely, that's only his first trial race since his last run in May, last year he ran 2 trials before the big day.

He was my first bet at 365's standout 14-1 mate

I'm not one who normally backs shorties but I think you're spot on about the Mile HK, I'm very confident AF will do the business in a couple of weeks!

Lucky Nine 10-1 with the Stoke mob, half the price with some other bookies, couldn't resist having an EW bet. I will go in again if he gets a good draw. I don't know anything about Spalato HK but he will need to improve a fair bit after his last race even though he did have a bad draw.

I also think the 4-1 for Designs On Rome is big, I'm wondering if Mr Berry will get the call up

I also think the 4-1 for Designs On Rome is big, I'm wondering if Mr Berry will get the call up

DOR does seem to go better with Tommy on board HK, should be at his peak with the way he's been prepared but I'm not sure at the moment.

Didn't realise, Moore is riding Ambitious Dragon - that makes it interesting, as I said his run in the trial wasn't too bad as it was only his 2nd run from injury and on his day he's a very good horse.

http://campaign.hkjc.com/en/2014-hkir/download/2014_HKIR_FORM_GUIDE_E.pdf

That's fantastic, cheers for posting HK

CCM - the form guide for the other races will be online by Friday

RM on Ambitious Dragon has got to be a positive but the more I watch Able Friend's last win the harder I see Gold Fun and Ambitious Dragon turning the form around!! Fiero is an interesting one who is lightly raced and ran a cracker last time but I'm really not sure getting beat an unlucky nose by Danon Shark is anything great but saying that he could be an improver. There are bits of form that tie in with Just A Way but this is surely AF's for the taking, especially after reading what John Moore (AF's trainer) had to say today... info below.

Info from HKJC.com

ABLE FRIEND will have a final piece of work on the turf down the backstretch later in the week as he takes aim at a G1 breakthrough.

“ABLE FRIEND will go on the grass on Thursday over the back - we’ll keep him on nice flat ground, so we don’t upset his hind quarters,” said Moore, who will work his LONGINES Hong Kong Sprint contenders STERLING CITY and FLAGSHIP SHINE over the same strip that morning.

“It was a phenomenal run last time and we thought he was underdone,” he added. “I don’t need to do much more with him. I put him down the back over the grass the other day because it had rained on the dirt track and I didn’t want the same problem with his hind quarters that he had earlier in the season. He did that and he’ll do it again on Thursday.”

Moore is confident that the horse he has always considered a champion-in-waiting is primed and will be able to step up and take the crown on Sunday.

“If he does what he did the other day in 1m 33s on the bit, what more do you need to do? Why bore it up him? He weighs 1290lb now and we don’t want him much lighter than that. 1280lb to 1290lb is perfect - the days of him being 1244lb are gone. He’s ready to rumble!” he said.

Buffering and AD were both lame yesterday morning as a FYI. AF is 5lbs worse off with the rest of the field from the trial race.

Did you see the picture of AF on the website from his work yesterday? He looks like an absolute beast.

Draw tomorrow lunchtime

That's a shame for the connections of Buffering and Ambitious Dragon.

Yep HK, AF has become a bit of a monster and that's what my first impression was after watching his last win when the Magic Man was pulling him up. He seems to have bulked up from last season and that was confirmed with his new fighting weight... lets get ready to rumble!

It's a fair point you make about AF carrying 5Ibs less than some of the others in his last race but I think he still would have won if he was carrying the extra weight... it was a very comfy and cozy win!

Got my fingers crossed Lucky Nine gets a good draw, he's my only ante post bet so far. Great to see Caspar Fownes getting a couple of winners and some placed efforts at Happy Valley today/last night, nice little boost for Lucky Nine and Military Attack . Hoping Military Attack gets a low draw tomorrow as well, if he does that will be my bet for the HK Cup.

I've tried to see if there was anything in the HK Vase that could beat Flintshire but I've found nothing. The only thing that worries me about him is the fact he's become a bit of a bridesmaid horse this year and hasn't won for a while. I will need to have another look!!!

Very happy with Lucky Nine in stall 4 for the HK Sprint but Able Friend in 11 was a bit of stinker in the HK Mile!

Military Attack drawn 8 is not good but not that bad either. Designs On Rome got a nice spot drawn 3 .

Flintshire drawn 4 in the HK Vase, need to make my mind up now!

FLINTSHIRE'S jockey almost ran into the eventual winner and he took a slight tug to avoid colliding
which probably cost him the race!!!

In the Vase I thinK I'll go with Red Cadeaux or Willie Cazals (ew) - waiting for the track work news from today as it's a good guide as to how the overseas horses are looking. I was also going to back Little Gerda in the sprint but I don't like the 1 barrier so I think it has to be Lucky Nine.

Don't think 11 is too bad for AF, I still think Ambitious Dragon has a big run left in him - I can't see a non-HK horse winning either, be interesting to see what the news is about Glorious Days (I have't heard anything and I know the nephew of one of the syndicate -he said they're very quiet which is the same as they were last year). so, the only one I haven't considered is Gold Fun (so that's your winner)

The cup is Designs on Rome for me - nothing else, he's been aimed at this all along, they weren't worried about the other races.

Plenty of time to change my mind!!

I know what you mean HK, very easy to change your mind with so many good horses running.

HK Vase: I've looked at this race over and over again and I keep coming back to Flintshire, track and fast ground are major plus points for me. The vibes coming from the Fabre camp are very good as well from what I've read and Flint seems to be thriving in Hong Kong and loving the surface. I'm not one who normally backs short price horses but I think there are too many positives and the French have a cracking record in the race. I took the 2-1 that was on offer and just hope he runs as well as his connections think he will!

Any thoughts on Bubble Chic HK? His last run wasn't bad in the Jockey Club Cup, step up in trip should help matters!

HK Sprint: Lucky Nine all the way for me, if he breaks well I'm expecting a big run from one of my favourite horses. Backed him 10-1 EW ante post and had another go at 13-2 this morning.

HK Mile: I'm expecting Able Friend to win this but the draw was slightly off putting, looking back at HK Mile races there have been a few that have won from wide draws and I think you are spot on HK, it might not be that bad. The home brigade will be hard to beat in this race and the superb record of winners they've got only enhances Able Friends chance. I do think he will win but I've had a little EW bet on World Ace because I think his 33-1 price is too big compared to Fiero. He beat Fiero earlier this year by nearly 2 lengths at Kyoto (G2 right hand track) but his next few runs have been a mixed bag. Watching his last race, which Fiero was narrowly beaten World Ace dwelt badly in the gates, he then recovered to mid-field position but in the home straight he got blocked badly a couple of times when trying to close down the leaders. He still managed to get within 4 lengths of the winners with all problems he had and I think he might get some place money if some of the HK horses don't fire. His trainer Yasutoshi Ikee reckons this race has always been the target.

HK Cup: Torn between Military Attack and Designs On Rome but as HK has posted this race is the big one for DOR. John Moore has been pretty open with the way he's prepped him in his first three races, taking a slow and steady approach. DOR did have a lot of races earlier this year and I think that's why he has been given an easier time and he should be cherry ripe for this now. It will be interesting to hear what Jenny the HK Racing Team paddock analyst thinks of DOR because she's never been that impressed with him physically.

If Military Attack drifts a bit I know I will end up backing him, not sure how much improvement is in the locker for him, Caspar Fownes thinks there is a bit. I've done an EW treble with Flintshire, Able Friend and DOR... they will probably all run stinkers now!

Agree with the general feeling that Flintshire should be winning the Base (and deserves to) and Able Friend should win the Mile.

The key to the sprint is how unlucky Aerovelocity was last time and whether he would have won or not? Could do with a proper head on angle tbh. I'm tempted to say he would have won but not certain enough to have a bet... Won't be backing him but would like to see Sole Power win it.

The Cup is very open. Designs on Rome I see the angle with targeting the race but he's too short imo. Probably won't have a bet here either. Hope CDA wins.

Benjy - check the patrol footage on the replay, that gives you the head on

http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20141123&...

MrD - this is interesting reading if you're into stats, though the survey period isn't rally that long to give meaningful data on the Sprint as it's only been a 1200m race for a few years. Though the stat about barrier 1 is interesting in that it's not had a placing since it was moved to 1200m.

I would also suggest to take DOR and AF prices now, I'd be shocked if they were bigger on the JC tomorrow at the off

MrD - I've always liked Bubble Chic but I'm not sure he's quite up to it, he did beat Dominant in the trial by 7 lengths (5lb turnaround now) and BC was one run further into his prep, perhaps there won't be too much between them so at the odds you'd think BC was good value - Willie Cazals is also in the picture on this form line too. Dominant does look a picture now if you look at his track work but I do think he got a great ride last year and The Fugue got a stinker. I think Willie Cazals will come out on top of the local horses but I'm not sure he's good enough to beat Flintshire or Red Cadeaux.

That's what I was thinking HK regarding Bubble Chic, he's been getting weight from some good horses and not really taken advantage of it. As you say he doesn't look up to this class but when you compare his price with the other horses that ran in the JCC he looks the value bet, at 33-1 I might have a little EW bet to add to my Flintshire bet.

Interesting stat HK. I'm never happy if I've backed a horse and it draws barrier 1 on a turning track, for me it can only be an advantage if a horse likes to go forward and has some really good early speed.

Cheers HK, very useful that. Never looked at a 'patrol replay' before tbh.

Still not sure on AV. He never gets a run but it's difficult to say what he might have done. I wonder if he gets space up the rail early in the straight is he going to shoot clear...

Lucky Nine is actually very unlucky on the head on. Didn't fully appreciate that as it looks like he has a bit of space on the original angle. Finishes well when he gets the space and not got the 5lb penalty he was carrying there either. Can certainly see the angle there.

Great reading your opinions guys.

Vase - Willie Cazals - 9/1 e/w
Sprint - Peniaphobia - 7/1 / Lucky Nine @ 5/1 (only because of Mr Dinos confidence and his excellent record in these big international races).
Mile - Gold Fun @ 5/1 / Trade Storm 25/1 e/w
Cup - Military Attack 5/1 / Endowing 25/1 e/w

GL All

Vase - Bubble Chic e/w 25/1

Really Flintshire ought to be winning this...and easily. but he hasn't won for a long while and its just been 1 excuse after another so thought I'd have some fun with something else but there's not much on except for Bubble Chic who could get an easy time in front....could equally completely fold in the last 200 and finish 6th or 7th but what the hell...25/1 is okay enough. 

Mile - Fiero e/w 8/1

G1 winner last time...form ties in with JAW so might as well.

Cup - Archimedes e/w 10/1

Nice run behind JAW...seems to have done well on the gallops this week and he's double the price of Farraj which I don't think is correct.

LONGINES Hong Kong Mile (Group 1) (3yo+) (Turf) (3yo+

Able Friend, should be able to use his superior speed,fantastic chance,short price. Looking for value not easy but Captain Cat could get involved in the race for the places,but not easy and not straight forward ,so comes with much risk,draw not great?

that was awesome! bloody hell

Yesvery,now  i must admit this ARCHIMEDES is a big price e/w,tooo big.

Pleasing results

WD winners.

What a morning of racing. The Magic Man was amazing in the last two races, I feel for Military Attack getting done on the line again but a wonderful ride by Moreira. Hope you had plenty on HK!!

Able Friend really is a monster and did what I thought he would, cannot wait to see him at Royal Ascot... hopefully.

Nearly a great day for you Uncle, four seconds... very unlucky, top stuff.

Disappointed with Lucky Nine, started well but just didn't fire today and looked uneasy down the straight. You were spot on about Aerovelocity Benjy, great ride by Zac Purton from the front.

Yes very good results,Just had a quick look at potential Able friend rating and i make it 134P ,good closing sectional,for a 2 lb mark up.

The form stacks up as well for Able Friend with DOR winning. He has size/substance and might get even better, great training by John Moore!

Not bad for a horse with cheekpieces

Captain Cat finished last beaten just 10L plus,this may leave some questions for the value of the form?,but cannot take away the visual impression of the winner.

MrDinos
14 Dec 14 08:58

Nearly a great day for you Uncle, four seconds... very unlucky, top stuff.

Thanks Mr Dinos - close but no cigar as they say

Fortunately as well as having small bet on your main tip for the sprint I also had a little on the treble that you advised.

No problem Uncle, very close but glad it worked out in the end.

One of the best days racing I've ever had.... what a place.

I cant remember a horse winning a big race like AF did... just unbelievable and a joy to watch. Thanks for the thread MrD and HK... made a big difference to my visit!

Able friend Winning the Mile - http://youtu.be/uHUBRbIvnZk

Brilliant day CCM and great to know you had superb time at Sha Tin, I really need to get myself over there next year... Number 1 priority for 2015!

It's been another cracking thread from HK and glad that some of my posts helped you out CCM. It's always that little sweeter when horses you really like do the business.

I hope you took the advice on AF and DOR - no price at all here.......AF was just immense, the most striking visual was the side on camera angle on Gold Fun and the 3rd going flat out in the final furlong and all you saw was AF go past from out of the picture - it drew a gasp from 70 odd thousand people when they were watching the replay. Had a great day as usual, they certainly know how to look after people in the hospitality! MrD I do remember you saying that last year about a must visit place!

Which facility were you in HK? We were in the Pak Sing restaurant.... all glass and the view was just brilliant. Great food, wine and service. As good as any experience at a racecourse for me. Agree about the replay when AF went past on the side on, absolutely breathtaking.

You've got to do it MrDinos!!

Yep HK, backed them both on the Friday. Slybet were going 11-10 AB and 100-30 DOR and put them in a treble with Flintshire. All their prices collapsed Saturday evening, so happy I took your advice!

I did post I was going to go this year HK but a house move scuppered my plans.

DOR's price was obliterated after AF won. I thought DOR was in a spot of bother at one point but this fella is all heart and it was another great battle with Military Attack. MA is one tough horse as well and I really did feel for him losing like that again.

Not sure there was something amiss with Lucky Nine!

CCM - that was the restaurant I was in my first year here (2008), it's a nice spot but you can't get outside. We've done Jun Hui Ting restaurant 3 times, the Cathay Pacific Box one year (that was the best one as it was on the finishing line), we had our own box one year and this year we were in the Haymarket, we only had 12 in our group as we didn't include the ladies this year- they are all very very good but this year was a little better than Pak Sing and Jub Hui Ting - but you can't complain in any of them as they all work out at about GBP 60 a head with all your food, drink and entrance for the day. I see the attendance was 74k yesterday, it's a little down on Chinese New Year when there's usually around 94k packed in!

Where were you staying, on the mainland or HK Island?

Mr D - there were many prices obliterated in the other races as the longest priced winner all day was just over 9-1 so the all up money going on the next race really smashed the odds, although in the morning AF was at 1.1 (One of the guys in our party offered 1.5 AF as he'd backed it at 5-4 in the UK).

Mr D - you really do need to do it, I've done all the big UK meetings and this is the best by far - for value. Though I do have a soft spot for Glorious Goodwood (my fav racecourse on a clear day).

That's fantastic value HK, where is the best place to stay near Sha Tin/Happy Valley and do you have to book a good time in advance for hospitality?

Not too sure what they offer regarding trips form the UK but I suspect you may be able to do it yourself cheaper - the hospitality in the restaurants can only be booked directly with the HKJC up to a month in advance (unless you're a good customer and use the facilities a lot - then you can get it 2 months in advance if you try ;-) ) If i was you I wouldn't stay near Sha Tin as there's not much there really, I'd stay on HK Island - but it depends on what you're after re nightlife etc.....CCM could probably guide you on what he did too.

Cheers HK, I did look at some hotels earlier this year but I will have another look (HK Island). Hopefully CCM might point me in the right direction.

I can point you in the right direction for hotels for sure, it all depends on what you're looking for in the way of bars, restaurants etc etc and what you want to spend - will you be with Mrs D or mates, that sort of thing. Suppose if you come all this way you'd want to do it properly. You can always send me a message when you know and can discuss it then - I'll also have some info on our new horse for next year.....he'll be in a bumper soon and we're all very excited about his prospects as he's well related to lots of good NH types.

Cool, the plan is to go for a week and do the trip myself rather than with a company. Yep HK I want to do it as a proper week away. I will take you up on that HK and message you closer the time.

That sounds exciting regarding the new horse, that would be great HK... Keep me informed!

His name is Kauto Riko......no prizes for guessing his relations

Stayed on the island mate.... in the Mandarin Oriental. Absolutely top drawer. The direct flight from Manc started on Monday as well so couldnt have been better. Just in the lounge waiting to board on the way home now!!

Couldnt believe how cheap the hospo was... and the quality of the wine list. Louis Roederer for £45 a bottle and Pauillac for about £60. Is it subsidised by the HKJC? We could only book it one month out. Will have a look at the others you suggest next time, but would be more than happy to be in there every year.

I booked it all myself Mr D so dont know about any packages....

Glad you had a good time lads.

Spent a few years on HK island when I was a kid. Lovely place.

Plan to go back at some point anyway and might have to work it around this meeting.

Does sound a bargain as well. Pay near on that for entry alone at RA etc.

Glad you enjoyed it CCM - I've been banging on for years about the value, and yes the HKJC do subsidise it all. My old man likes to come over for the meeting, fck Xmas he says I'll come for the Intl Day!!!

Stumbled across some You Tube footage of Kauto Riko doing various pieces of work. Trained not that far from me HK... looks promising and you should have some fun with him!

The more I watch Able Friend's win the more impressive it is. I don't think he's reached his peak yet either, what a scary thought... absolute monster.