LONGINES HK INTERNATIONAL RACES 2014

Howdy HK and FS, hope you guys are doing well!! I can't believe how quick this has come around again but always one of my favourite meetings of the year.

Listened to the races on the HKJC stream Sunday and then watched them on You Tube. Able Friend was awesome, he travelled powerfully and finished with a superb turn of foot. It was a great prep and he did it very easy, I will be shocked if he doesn't win the HK Mile after that.

I was surprised Military Attack moved to Casper Fownes but he couldn't have gone to a better trainer IMO. He looks to have added some extra spark to MA and his win a couple of weeks ago in the Sha Tin Trophy (8f G2 Handicap) was another surprise but he backed that up again on Sunday getting mugged near the line... again!! Designs On Rome probably was the one to take out the race (raced wide) and it does look like John Moore is bringing him along very steadily this time so he fires on the big day. Blazing Speed ran another fine race but will he go for the Cup or the Vase?! The big question though is will Just A way turn up for the HK Cup or will he stay at home, I haven't got a clue?!

My old mate Lucky Nine was the one to take out the Jockey Club Sprint, he travelled the best but got no run whatsoever. Prebble had to wait and wait then take him back to get a run but when he did get some clear space he showed a fantastic finish... he's STILL GOT IT and I will be hoping there are some nice prices knocking around with the UK bookmakers on the day.

Hello all, very well this end thanks, hope you all are well too,  looking forward as usual to the big day. I agree with you on all counts Mr D but I would be careful in the mile as Glorious Days is having a similar prep to last year and I understand the owners are being very quiet so this normally means they are confident!! I did also like Ambitious Dragons run as he seemed to be held in at a crucial time by JM on AF but AF did it very easily - think you'd be biting someone's hand off if you got evens!!! I just can't get DOR at all - I've backed him heavily in his last 2 runs and his last 2 victories last season I backed MA and AF against him.... He's cost me loads!!! Blazing Speed is staying in the cup and I think the grey horse is going for the vase.

CCM - look at the hkjc website under horse racing, they publish a form guide 2 days before every meeting, there's also a race review program the night before a meeting that you can watch a replay of on the hkjc website - it should help. Hope you're also getting in early enough in the week so you get the Wednesday meeting at happy valley?

Yep HK, Glorious Days was the one that got me kicking myself last year. I remember his connections were full of positive vibes in build up and he went and did what they thought. GD will be a danger to Able Friend if he's in the same form.

I was so impressed with AF Sunday though and I can't see him getting beat. He looks like he's developed into an absolute beast physically and the way he travelled throughout the race was super slick. RaceBets are offering 2-1 at the moment and the only UK bookies showing prices for the HK rcaes... very tempting!

RPost report that selected runners will be announced tomorrow (Wednesday) for all four HKIR G1 races, should be interesting.

The HK Cup looks the hardest race to pick a winner at this stage but if Military Attack gets a good draw I think that will sway me, it's like déjà vu! Casper Fownes EW double as well.

http://www.hkjc.com/english/corporate/racing_news_item.asp?in_file=/english/news/2014-11/news_2014112601541.html

I'll have a Moore double in the mile and cup, sprint we need to know the draw and the vase goes to Flintshire as long as he settles in HK. AF AT 2-1 is huge when you look at the field.

In the sprint I heard that the guys from Singapore are quietly confident about Spalato - ignore the trial run especially as it was drawn in the river.

CCM - think he's probably value as an ew bet, he's not that dependent on the draw (same for AF), but I really couldn't see him beating AF based on their last race, and the May run when GF was behind AF. The only thing that could stop AF going off odds-on is if they smash into Glorious Days again like last year's race.

Glorious Days ran a trial the other day too - seemed to go along nicely, that's only his first trial race since his last run in May, last year he ran 2 trials before the big day.

I'm not one who normally backs shorties but I think you're spot on about the Mile HK, I'm very confident AF will do the business in a couple of weeks!

Lucky Nine 10-1 with the Stoke mob, half the price with some other bookies, couldn't resist having an EW bet. I will go in again if he gets a good draw. I don't know anything about Spalato HK but he will need to improve a fair bit after his last race even though he did have a bad draw.

I also think the 4-1 for Designs On Rome is big, I'm wondering if Mr Berry will get the call up

Didn't realise, Moore is riding Ambitious Dragon - that makes it interesting, as I said his run in the trial wasn't too bad as it was only his 2nd run from injury and on his day he's a very good horse.

That's fantastic, cheers for posting HK

RM on Ambitious Dragon has got to be a positive but the more I watch Able Friend's last win the harder I see Gold Fun and Ambitious Dragon turning the form around!! Fiero is an interesting one who is lightly raced and ran a cracker last time but I'm really not sure getting beat an unlucky nose by Danon Shark is anything great but saying that he could be an improver. There are bits of form that tie in with Just A Way but this is surely AF's for the taking, especially after reading what John Moore (AF's trainer) had to say today... info below.

Info from HKJC.com

ABLE FRIEND will have a final piece of work on the turf down the backstretch later in the week as he takes aim at a G1 breakthrough.

“ABLE FRIEND will go on the grass on Thursday over the back - we’ll keep him on nice flat ground, so we don’t upset his hind quarters,” said Moore, who will work his LONGINES Hong Kong Sprint contenders STERLING CITY and FLAGSHIP SHINE over the same strip that morning.

“It was a phenomenal run last time and we thought he was underdone,” he added. “I don’t need to do much more with him. I put him down the back over the grass the other day because it had rained on the dirt track and I didn’t want the same problem with his hind quarters that he had earlier in the season. He did that and he’ll do it again on Thursday.”

Moore is confident that the horse he has always considered a champion-in-waiting is primed and will be able to step up and take the crown on Sunday.

“If he does what he did the other day in 1m 33s on the bit, what more do you need to do? Why bore it up him? He weighs 1290lb now and we don’t want him much lighter than that. 1280lb to 1290lb is perfect - the days of him being 1244lb are gone. He’s ready to rumble!” he said.

That's a shame for the connections of Buffering and Ambitious Dragon.

Yep HK, AF has become a bit of a monster and that's what my first impression was after watching his last win when the Magic Man was pulling him up. He seems to have bulked up from last season and that was confirmed with his new fighting weight... lets get ready to rumble!

It's a fair point you make about AF carrying 5Ibs less than some of the others in his last race but I think he still would have won if he was carrying the extra weight... it was a very comfy and cozy win!

Got my fingers crossed Lucky Nine gets a good draw, he's my only ante post bet so far. Great to see Caspar Fownes getting a couple of winners and some placed efforts at Happy Valley today/last night, nice little boost for Lucky Nine and Military Attack . Hoping Military Attack gets a low draw tomorrow as well, if he does that will be my bet for the HK Cup.

I've tried to see if there was anything in the HK Vase that could beat Flintshire but I've found nothing. The only thing that worries me about him is the fact he's become a bit of a bridesmaid horse this year and hasn't won for a while. I will need to have another look!!!

FLINTSHIRE'S jockey almost ran into the eventual winner and he took a slight tug to avoid colliding
which probably cost him the race!!!

I know what you mean HK, very easy to change your mind with so many good horses running.

HK Vase: I've looked at this race over and over again and I keep coming back to Flintshire, track and fast ground are major plus points for me. The vibes coming from the Fabre camp are very good as well from what I've read and Flint seems to be thriving in Hong Kong and loving the surface. I'm not one who normally backs short price horses but I think there are too many positives and the French have a cracking record in the race. I took the 2-1 that was on offer and just hope he runs as well as his connections think he will!

Any thoughts on Bubble Chic HK? His last run wasn't bad in the Jockey Club Cup, step up in trip should help matters!

HK Sprint: Lucky Nine all the way for me, if he breaks well I'm expecting a big run from one of my favourite horses. Backed him 10-1 EW ante post and had another go at 13-2 this morning.

HK Mile: I'm expecting Able Friend to win this but the draw was slightly off putting, looking back at HK Mile races there have been a few that have won from wide draws and I think you are spot on HK, it might not be that bad. The home brigade will be hard to beat in this race and the superb record of winners they've got only enhances Able Friends chance. I do think he will win but I've had a little EW bet on World Ace because I think his 33-1 price is too big compared to Fiero. He beat Fiero earlier this year by nearly 2 lengths at Kyoto (G2 right hand track) but his next few runs have been a mixed bag. Watching his last race, which Fiero was narrowly beaten World Ace dwelt badly in the gates, he then recovered to mid-field position but in the home straight he got blocked badly a couple of times when trying to close down the leaders. He still managed to get within 4 lengths of the winners with all problems he had and I think he might get some place money if some of the HK horses don't fire. His trainer Yasutoshi Ikee reckons this race has always been the target.

HK Cup: Torn between Military Attack and Designs On Rome but as HK has posted this race is the big one for DOR. John Moore has been pretty open with the way he's prepped him in his first three races, taking a slow and steady approach. DOR did have a lot of races earlier this year and I think that's why he has been given an easier time and he should be cherry ripe for this now. It will be interesting to hear what Jenny the HK Racing Team paddock analyst thinks of DOR because she's never been that impressed with him physically.

If Military Attack drifts a bit I know I will end up backing him, not sure how much improvement is in the locker for him, Caspar Fownes thinks there is a bit. I've done an EW treble with Flintshire, Able Friend and DOR... they will probably all run stinkers now!

Benjy - check the patrol footage on the replay, that gives you the head on

MrD - this is interesting reading if you're into stats, though the survey period isn't rally that long to give meaningful data on the Sprint as it's only been a 1200m race for a few years. Though the stat about barrier 1 is interesting in that it's not had a placing since it was moved to 1200m.

MrD - I've always liked Bubble Chic but I'm not sure he's quite up to it, he did beat Dominant in the trial by 7 lengths (5lb turnaround now) and BC was one run further into his prep, perhaps there won't be too much between them so at the odds you'd think BC was good value - Willie Cazals is also in the picture on this form line too. Dominant does look a picture now if you look at his track work but I do think he got a great ride last year and The Fugue got a stinker. I think Willie Cazals will come out on top of the local horses but I'm not sure he's good enough to beat Flintshire or Red Cadeaux.

Cheers HK, very useful that. Never looked at a 'patrol replay' before tbh.

Still not sure on AV. He never gets a run but it's difficult to say what he might have done. I wonder if he gets space up the rail early in the straight is he going to shoot clear...

Lucky Nine is actually very unlucky on the head on. Didn't fully appreciate that as it looks like he has a bit of space on the original angle. Finishes well when he gets the space and not got the 5lb penalty he was carrying there either. Can certainly see the angle there.