Horse Antepost
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Not a betting race by any means but I'll be cheering on The Fly!
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Won't get near Jezki.
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Cannot see why HF was priced up as Fav when Jezki has battered him the last twice.
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The reasons are as follows IMO.
1) Hurricane Fly always mops up these small, early season races. 2) Hurricane Fly is further forward this year compared to other years 3) Jezki likes a strong pace to come off, these races are dawdles which will suit the Fly. 4) Jezki won't be straight first time out. 5) Hurricane Fly is a God in Ireland and is always overbet. I'm still backing Jezki large in spite of all these things. Feel that The Fly has 8 pounds to find with Jezki, minimum. May be more now as HF looks on the downgrade, Jezki's improving. |
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The softer the ground the better The Fly's chances imo.
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Lots of assumptions there Thunder, even though I agree with you about the winner.
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Gambling all about assumptions Sintonian.
Think Jezki's still underrated despite winning the CH. May not have the acceleration of Faugheen or The New One, but is an honest horse, a battler, and always very strong at the end. May not quite have the speed or the class to retain his title next year, but you can guarantee he'll go close. Won't have to be at his best to beat the Fly on Sunday; probably only have to run up to a mark of 155 (i.e. a stone below his best). Should be fit enough to do that. |
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Losing gambling is about assumptions! That's what leads to mistakes.
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He definitely has the class to win next season. He's won 6 Group 1s. SIX! That doesn't happen by fluke.
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Don't rule out Little King Robin. I'm sure HF and Jezki will have bigger targets later on in the season. Getting a handy 7lbs she will be as fit as a flea and still improving judged on her victory lto when easily beating 2 of last seasons top juveniles in Guitar Pete & Tiger Roll. 12s is a decent price and if ever she can beat these 2 giants of Irish hurdling, it will be Sunday
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Looks a match on paper but little king robin race fit and looks good getting the 7bls looks decent at 12/1 might lay the top 2 if can get the right lay prices .
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I do wish people would stop talking about the 7lb as if it is a favourable handicap term. She gets that as a sex allowance due to being physically inferior to male counterparts.
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The 7bls makes a hell of a difference sex allowance or not any one that knows what there talking about will be bring that up for sure ...Annie power off level weights could give jezki a run for is money but the 7bls wood defo be in her favour ( the 7bls is a favourable term some mares are as good as the boys !!!
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The 7bls makes a hell of a difference sex allowance or not any one that knows what there talking about will be bring that up for sure ...Annie power off level weights could give jezki a run for is money but the 7bls wood defo be in her favour ( the 7bls is a favourable term some mares are as good as the boys !!!
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its one thing seeing off arctic fire and a bunch of 140 horses (GP and Tiger R didnt run races), she'll be left behind by the 165+ horses receiving 7lbs or not.
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Yea may be later in the season .. She is race fit and in good form look at jezki start of last season . Hurricane fly 1/16 last year to win this and it was prob his worst race last season
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Anyone backing Little King Robin is presumably looking to lay off to mugs when she builds her trademark lead. She deserves a rest after her most recent exertions and will be outclassed today. The Fly for me.
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I know this is horseracing and funny things do happen, but I am really struggling to see how HF gets anywhere near Jezki.
One still on the up possibly and one definitely going the other way,and the one possibly on the up is already better!! Still, as I say this is horseracing. |
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Well I agree Jezki is the better horse but I think he will be vulnerable today. Unless the jockey is mad he won't be taking on LKR up front. This gives the jockey a tactical dilemma and I can see the Fly doing him for a turn of foot on the soft ground as he did twice last season. Nothing far fetched there IMO.
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boom
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Like taking sweets from bandwagon punters with no imagination ; )
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 15/8 still cant believe the starting price |
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I love betfair forum for exactly these threads. Fly has been written off more times than Kauto Star has
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soz foz id backed it antepost in the NH big races thread, and couldn't believe the price when I got back from kids footie.
how sad |
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it was also my nap in the comp
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alleged22 alleged22 03 Nov 14 23:40 Joined: 18 Feb 12 | Topic/replies: 3,258 | Blogger: alleged22's blog greatwood hurdle garde la victoire 1pt e/w @16-1 b356 |
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You mustn't back many winners if you're creaming yourself over a 15-8 shot.
when something that should be evens returns at 15/8 I find it really funny |
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whats even funnier is I took 11/10
be lucky fozzy |
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Never see the race today. Well done Alleged. Probably should have known better than to go against HF in small fields in Ireland.
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Fair play to the fly, I do think it was fair to expect jezki to win today,but there yer go. don't think fly will be beating him later in the season though,but well done those who backed him today
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Disappointing from Jezki but not entirely unexpected. Hopefully they send the Fly over to France to mop up over there or possibly step him to up to 3 miles. Won't be winning the Champion Hurdle, that's for sure.
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he won,t be 15/8 - 2-1 the next time they meet that's for sure
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Don't think you could say "expect" Jezki to win bud. I wrote a piece last night on Fly.
http://jumpsadviser.com/hurricane-fly/ Soft ground and he's still awesome. While his runs in the spring had parallels with 2 years ago when he was beaten in Champion and scraped home at Punchestown. He bounced back. I'm not saying he can go win another Champion Hurdle but for me, on soft ground he's going to beat Jezki at Leopardstown next Month. It'd be great if they aimed fly at Aintree Hurdle then French Champion Hurdle instead of going to Cheltenham. |
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After watching jezki improve past Hf earlier this year,I honestly expected that to continue into this season.Fair enough the fly proved me wrong today,but I do think as the season progresses jezki will be the major threat in the big races. Fly loves soft ground and is very good this time of year,jezki not so,so in that respect I can see why some would fancy the fly today. I honestly thought none of that would matter and that jezki was simply a better horse now and by a fair bit,but he weren't today.
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I wouldn't be surprised if Jezki is being trained differently this year with one/two main objectives. It's still disappointing he got beat today, but time will tell with how he performs in his next races. Time is on his side, which it obviously is not with HF so they have to train him for the races that are on offer like the Morgiana, they cannot pick and choose now really. Both Ruby & Willie said he was fitter for this seasons renewal than he was last year.
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GO ON THE FLYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!
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Jezki didn't come into his own until the spring last season and I expect that to be the case again this season. He's a worse horse on soft/heavy ground that's for sure. I think he'll struggle between here and Cheltenham but I wouldn't be writing him off for the big one as I think that's when he'll be at his best.
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Of the two you'd want to be on Jezki in March. But soft ground around Leopardstown you know who to be on.
Oh and 3m52.5s on Soft ground. That's the second fastest time Fly has run at the track. The only quicker time was his career best performance in 2011 Punchestown Festival on good ground. To put it in perspective. First time out he did that and it was over 14 seconds quicker than Jezki posted on bettee ground when winning in April. You can't on the bridle coming to the last and post that time unless you've still got it. Mullins said he looked to be carrying weight meaning he'll improve. Don't get me wrong. I know Cheltenham is not his track and he won't get his ground. But he is still a phenomenon here in Ireland. |
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You also can't post times like that without being fully fit.
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Well Jezki posted a time very slightly less than Fly and miles better than he posted at Punchestown in April or the season before as a Novice.
Neither could possibly be fully fit fto. Especially as the reason Jezki was hammered on course was because everyone saw Fly looked to be carrying weight. I think Fly was fitter than Jezki for this race. But both will improve for this run. The point of the Argument is that Flys run in April where he looked uncomfortable and had bad head carriage was not his true form. I think he'll beat Jezki again at Christmas and January if the ground is soft or worse. The tactics to be up with the pace forcing it at Cheltenham on very quick ground was clearly a bad idea. Fell in a hole. Little King Robin will be running at Leopardstown which is great news for race pace. Jezki gets beaten twice more will be great news for his Price come March. |