Hurricane Fly vs Jezki

Won't get near Jezki.

Cannot see why HF was priced up as Fav when Jezki has battered him the last twice.

The reasons are as follows IMO.

1) Hurricane Fly always mops up these small, early season races.
2) Hurricane Fly is further forward this year compared to other years
3) Jezki likes a strong pace to come off, these races are dawdles which will suit the Fly.
4) Jezki won't be straight first time out.
5) Hurricane Fly is a God in Ireland and is always overbet.

I'm still backing Jezki large in spite of all these things. Feel that The Fly has 8 pounds to find with Jezki, minimum. May be more now as HF looks on the downgrade, Jezki's improving.

The softer the ground the better The Fly's chances imo.

Lots of assumptions there Thunder, even though I agree with you about the winner.

Gambling all about assumptions Sintonian.

Think Jezki's still underrated despite winning the CH. May not have the acceleration of Faugheen or The New One, but is an honest horse, a battler, and always very strong at the end.

May not quite have the speed or the class to retain his title next year, but you can guarantee he'll go close. Won't have to be at his best to beat the Fly on Sunday; probably only have to run up to a mark of 155 (i.e. a stone below his best). Should be fit enough to do that.

Losing gambling is about assumptions! That's what leads to mistakes.

He definitely has the class to win next season. He's won 6 Group 1s. SIX! That doesn't happen by fluke.

Don't rule out Little King Robin. I'm sure HF and Jezki will have bigger targets later on in the season. Getting a handy 7lbs she will be as fit as a flea and still improving judged on her victory lto when easily beating 2 of last seasons top juveniles in Guitar Pete & Tiger Roll. 12s is a decent price and if ever she can beat these 2 giants of Irish hurdling, it will be Sunday

Looks a match on paper but little king robin race fit and looks good getting the 7bls looks decent at 12/1 might lay the top 2 if can get the right lay prices .

I do wish people would stop talking about the 7lb as if it is a favourable handicap term. She gets that as a sex allowance due to being physically inferior to male counterparts.

The 7bls makes a hell of a difference sex allowance or not any one that knows what there talking about will be bring that up for sure ...Annie power off level weights could give jezki  a run for is money but the 7bls wood defo be in her favour ( the 7bls is a favourable term some mares are as good as the boys !!!

The 7bls makes a hell of a difference sex allowance or not any one that knows what there talking about will be bring that up for sure ...Annie power off level weights could give jezki  a run for is money but the 7bls wood defo be in her favour ( the 7bls is a favourable term some mares are as good as the boys !!!

its one thing seeing off arctic fire and a bunch of 140 horses (GP and Tiger R didnt run races), she'll be left behind by the 165+ horses receiving 7lbs or not.

Yea may be later in the season .. She is race fit  and in good form look at jezki start of last season . Hurricane fly 1/16 last year to win this and it was prob his worst race last season

Anyone backing Little King Robin is presumably looking to lay off to mugs when she builds her trademark lead. She deserves a rest after her most recent exertions and will be outclassed today. The Fly for me.

I know this is horseracing and funny things do happen, but I am really struggling to see how HF gets anywhere near Jezki.
One still on the up possibly and one definitely going the other way,and the one possibly on the up is already better!!
Still, as I say this is horseracing.

Well I agree Jezki is the better horse but I think he will be vulnerable today. Unless the jockey is mad he won't be taking on LKR up front. This gives the jockey a tactical dilemma and I can see the Fly doing him for a turn of foot on the soft ground as he did twice last season. Nothing far fetched there IMO.

boom

Like taking sweets from bandwagon punters with no imagination ; )

15/8 still cant believe the starting price

I love betfair forum for exactly these threads. Fly has been written off more times than Kauto Star has

soz foz id backed it antepost in the NH  big races thread, and couldn't believe the price when I got back from kids footie.


how sad

it was also my nap in the comp

alleged22


         alleged22   






  03 Nov 14 23:40 
Joined:   18 Feb 12      | Topic/replies: 3,258  | Blogger: alleged22's blog   



greatwood hurdle

garde la victoire 1pt e/w @16-1 b356

You mustn't back many winners if you're creaming yourself over a 15-8 shot.


when something that should be evens returns at 15/8  I find it really funny

whats even funnier is I took 11/10 


be lucky fozzy

Never see the race today. Well done Alleged. Probably should have known better than to go against HF in small fields in Ireland.

Fair play to the fly, I do think it was fair to expect jezki to win today,but there yer go. don't think fly will be beating him later in the season though,but well done those who backed him today

Disappointing from Jezki but not entirely unexpected. Hopefully they send the Fly over to France to mop up over there or possibly step him to up to 3 miles. Won't be winning the Champion Hurdle, that's for sure.

he won,t be 15/8 - 2-1 the next time they meet that's for sure

Don't think you could say "expect" Jezki to win bud. I wrote a piece last night on Fly.

http://jumpsadviser.com/hurricane-fly/

Soft ground and he's still awesome. While his runs in the spring had parallels with 2 years ago when he was beaten in Champion and scraped home at Punchestown. He bounced back.

I'm not saying he can go win another Champion Hurdle but for me, on soft ground he's going to beat Jezki at Leopardstown next Month. It'd be great if they aimed fly at Aintree Hurdle then French Champion Hurdle instead of going to Cheltenham.

After watching jezki improve past Hf earlier this year,I honestly expected that to continue into this season.Fair enough the fly proved me wrong today,but I do think as the season progresses jezki will be the major threat in the big races. Fly loves soft ground and is very good this time of year,jezki not so,so in that respect I can see why some would fancy the fly today. I honestly thought none of that would matter and that jezki was simply a better horse now and by a fair bit,but he weren't today.

I wouldn't be surprised if Jezki is being trained differently this year with one/two main objectives. It's still disappointing he got beat today, but time will tell with how he performs in his next races. Time is on his side, which it obviously is not with HF so they have to train him for the races that are on offer like the Morgiana, they cannot pick and choose now really. Both Ruby & Willie said he was fitter for this seasons renewal than he was last year.

GO ON THE FLYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!

Jezki didn't come into his own until the spring last season and I expect that to be the case again this season. He's a worse horse on soft/heavy ground that's for sure. I think he'll struggle between here and Cheltenham but I wouldn't be writing him off for the big one as I think that's when he'll be at his best.

Of the two you'd want to be on Jezki in March. But soft ground around Leopardstown you know who to be on.

Oh and 3m52.5s on Soft ground. That's the second fastest time Fly has run at the track. The only quicker time was his career best performance in 2011  Punchestown Festival on good ground.

To put it in perspective. First time out he did that and it was over 14 seconds quicker than Jezki posted on bettee ground when winning in April.

You can't on the bridle coming to the last and post that time unless you've still got it. Mullins said he looked to be carrying weight meaning he'll improve.

Don't get me wrong. I know Cheltenham is not his track and he won't get his ground. But he is still a phenomenon here in Ireland.

You also can't post times like that without being fully fit.

Well Jezki posted a time very slightly less than Fly and miles better than he posted at Punchestown in April or the season before as a Novice.

Neither could possibly be fully fit fto. Especially as the reason Jezki was hammered on course was because everyone saw Fly looked to be carrying weight.

I think Fly was fitter than Jezki for this race. But both will improve for this run.

The point of the Argument is that Flys run in April where he looked uncomfortable and had bad head carriage was not his true form. I think he'll beat Jezki again at Christmas and January if the ground is soft or worse.

The tactics to be up with the pace forcing it at Cheltenham on very quick ground was clearly a bad idea. Fell in a hole.

Little King Robin will be running at Leopardstown which is great news for race pace.

Jezki gets beaten twice more will be great news for his Price come March.

You could if you were racing at Wetherby...

Serious point behind the joke though is that using times in NH racing is fraught with dangers, even if there are some nuggets in there for those who work hard enough.

Perfectly possible that they are racing over a slightly different distance and on different ground to what is advertised in any race, at any track, and on any given day...

Sorry Little King Robin goes for Mares race at Leopardstown.

I'd accept that argument if it was run in England. But Punchestown are very good at ensuring their racing distances and the race was run at a fast gallop from start to finish. Accuracy of the time isn't needed as it's a full 14 seconds quicker on softer ground than in April.

All I'm saying is along with how he carried his head I'm sure he was below form in April. Understandable given the very hard race he had at Cheltenham and he is 10yo.

Jezki is trained to peak at Cheltenham. While I think Fly is aiming for 5 in a row Irish Champion Hurdle in January. He'll be hard to beat at his fav track on his fav ground.

Do you think Jezki will reverse form next time?

I certainly don't if the ground is soft. That makes three times The Fly has quickened out of soft ground better than Jezki and I don't think he jumped as well as he can do yesterday.

Jezki has plenty of form on soft. He is just not good enough to beat the Fly on that ground.
I find it strange people knocking the Fly when he has been the outstanding hurdler the last 5 years.
Last year he was still better than the rest when he had his conditions. He has never produced his best at Cheltenham but that is nothing to take away from him.
One poster suggested that Jezki only had to run to 150 to win the weekend??!!!!  The Fly has only recorded a below 160 performance in his last 20 runs.

Not after timing as didn't have a chance to look at this weekends racing this week.
Just find some people's comments bizarre.

ONCE in the last 20 years.

Horses as popular as Fly will always have large amounts of people who dislike him. On here it's the same people who haven't liked him from the start. It's the same with all horses. I imagine lots of it stems from his 2012 loss in the Champion Hurdle where he lost at odds on when people piled on him. If a horse loses you a lot of money you will build a dislike for him.

Kauto Star and Hurricane Fly only won twice at the festival. But are best remembered for their stunning consistency and longevity at the top.

couldn't agree more cv well put

I'm not sure that is wholly accurate. People like simplicity and this kind of debate panders to that simplicity and desire for black and white. Of course there will be some people who don't like a specific horse because they did their cash on that horse. More often it is people taking a view based on what they believe to be the case at a certain point. There's absolutely nothing wrong in asserting that Cheltenham didn't play to The Fly's strengths and that in spite of rather than because of that Cheltenham showed what a great horse he was. He remains a very difficult horse to beat given his ideal conditions. I do agree that his season probably won't be built around a Cheltenham campaign this year and nor should it. He can pick up a lot of additional prize money serving it up to the young brigade who are being prepared with an eye on their date in March.

Really?,disliking a horse??

I think we can have a view on a horse and its ability and whether its as good as it was etc etc,without actually not liking the horse!!

I really hope people don't see me in that bracket,thats pretty shameful not liking these animals that give us so much pleasure.

Well we're all guilty of it bud. I don't like to some degree, Sil Conti, TNO and Sire De Grugy.

What my exact rationale is differs. Take Sire De Grugy, the only time I bet on the horse was when he lost to Kid Cassidy, I opposed him then in Tingle Creek and then made the mistake of assuming he didn't like Cheltenham and he goes and win the Champ Chase. My own mistakes, but I project my frustration onto the horse himself to some degree.

I'm not justifying it, but explaining something that is common in the spot, people like and dislike horses for their own reasons. Mostly to do with the annoying time of when you back him he loses when you back against him he beats you.

My mate backed Peddlers Cross (2011) - Hurricane Fly (2012) - Rock on Ruby (2013). As such I don't blame him for his dislike of Hurricane Fly. I also know lots of people who piled into Kauto both times he was beaten in Gold Cup at odds on yet never backed him ever in any other race. Simple to back the Champ when he looks unbeatable.

That's racing folks

Yeh I understand all that mate,and theres horses over the years that have pi$$ed me off for sure,for those very reasons you mention.
I do tend to get sensitive about people sl@gging horses off though and saying how they dilike a horse....maybe I need to lighten up a tad mate.

Anyway, good to have you on here more often CV.

It's not the horse I build up an antipathy towards, it's the jockey. They're dumb animals doing what they're told and the horses are much the same.