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*THE HENNESSY GOLD CUP*
*THE HENNESSY GOLD CUP*
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Replies: 192
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Smad Place is definitely the obvious choice - I think sometimes we try to over complicate things in an attempt to beat the market (I'm as guilty as anyone on that score
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With my sensible hat now on I've backed Smad Place @ 10/1 (2pt win, 1pt place).
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seem to be in a minority here but fingal bay seems to be anonymous on here! prominent in the betting and lightly raced has some classy form over hurdles and not too bad over fences in his novice days ,3 lengths behind dynaste in a novice chase giving that horse 4 lb ,and beat simonsig over hurdles at sandown ,had a setback and was off for a while but came back last season and won a big staying handicap hurdle at the festival under a big weight ,he may not be as good over fences but then again he might just be even better , have backed this fella for the gold cup ! that may be a bridge too far! but a horse who has undoubted ability who for one reason or another has not had the chance to show just how good he could be ! go back to his novice chase days and taking the form literally he is about the same horse as dynaste ! stable in red hot form and hobbs has said " we have been schooling him over fences at home and you would think he has been jumping fences all his life ! 10/1 a fair price imo !
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Richard Johnson seemed very confident in Fingal Bay the other night at Cheltenham for what it's worth.
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cheers mr eboue good to hear from my point of view ! here we have a horse who s full potential may have been untapped ,a horse who has beaten simonsig who has won a Neptune and an arkle ,and he gave 4 lb to dynaste who has won a betfair chase and a ryanaire ,and he was favourite to beat those two on both occasions so the form is in the book !not saying he will win as anything can happen but has to have a live chance !
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sorry 2nd in a betfair chase ^^^^^^^^^^^^
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Is this an early closing race in which no penalties for race wins apply or do they get penalties. Example: Sam Winner won off 147 on Saturday, if PFN decided to run him (apparently Becher bound), would he still get in on 147 or would he get a 7lb penalty? Thanks
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Fingal Bay is the one that could be well in but Philip Hobbs intended to give him a run 2 weeks ago and didn't for whatever reason.
It is a huge ask for a horse that is effectively a novice over fences. |
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Shockster. 4 pounds penalty for a chase win after Nov 6th
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I can't back Fingal Bay because he is going into one of the most demanding staying handicaps on the calendar having not run over fences for two years and having nearly jumped into the wings of a couple of fences before running out at Exeter on his previous chasing appearance.
It does n't mean he can't win of course and I'm sure his experienced connections would n't be running him here unless they were confident they've resolved the problems that manifested themselves at Exeter. I see Ballynagour has been taken out of both the Betfair Chase and the Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle so I assume the plan is to run here (the only other entry he currently holds is the King George) - I quite like his chances not least because his pedigree suggests there is scope for marked improvement for the step up in trip. I'll wait for a positive statement of intent before getting involved though, Pipe said he made the mistake of running Ballynagour in the Paddy Power last season when he was n't ready so will await confirmation that he's good to go. His Byrne Plate success at the festival was startling but he also put in very respectable efforts at Aintree and Punchestown (trip surely too short) after that. |
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Thanks CCFC
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Although not particularly "hidden" from the handicapper I'm pretty keen on Rocky Creek for this. Thought he ran a very good trial at Down Royal and hope he may have found a little improvement this season. Interesting that he has had a prep this year after finishing 2nd in the race on re-appearance last season.
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I agree Saritamer, Rocky Creek jumps like a stag. he is 5lb higher than last year but hopefully will get his favoured soft ground, he has had a prep run and he did have an injury scare before the Hennesy last year and there was some doubt about his participation last year. He aint gonna find a turn of foot but if its a slog he will stay forever. Fwiw I read last year that David Johnson (part owner) before he died said that he thought it would win the Hennesy and wanted it to run in it.
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You do get your money back if balloted out even on an ante post bet.
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interesting to hear King say today that Smad Place is working better than ever at home...
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yes you do get your money back if balloted out
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Been all over Djakadam for this since day 1.
Took some of Merry King cliff horse and Hadrians Approach on here as both were 40.0 |
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Because of what the owner has said presumably CV?
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smad place for me.
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Sint I know you don't fancy Djackadam as you've already stated but regardless of the hype surrounding him and his potential to run well in a gold cup from his trainer and others associated with him, surely you can see he is potentially very very well handicapped??? I thought he was coming to win the JLT last year in my opinion of course or at least would of gone very close which makes him a good animal and he is receiving 6lb from Easter meteor 9lb from walkon 10lb from vino griego..... All seasoned handicappers from my perspective!
His price has tumbled now but I've had a little bit of 10's and as long as he lines up on Saturday I will have a bit more and he will hopefully prove to be a gold cup contender, we shall see........good luck |
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Yes barnesy I said that. Off 141 and the entries and hopes of connections then he simply has to be. But a horse has to run under it's rights conditions for it to be well handicapped. How do we know he wants 26.5f?
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*147
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But how do we know he doesn't want 26.5 miles??? I suppose I just trust the connections are putting him in the right race!
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if he wants 26.5 miles I expect to see him in next year's London marathon
 His Grandad is Cadoudal so if he's inherited the same engine as Long Run and Bucksy the trip should be right up his street, it's not an exact science though and I'm no expert. |
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Joining the Smad Place club. Amazed if he isn't right in the mix here.
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But that's where price comes in Barnesy. At 8/1 your backing a horse who is unknown at the trip, very inexperienced as a chaser, comes into the race on the back of a fall. He may win by 10 lengths but his price is all about what connections have said. I don't see how it can be anything else tbh.
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Actually, if you read through the RP in-running comments for all his races it appears he makes mistakes in most of his races. I'd hazard a guess this is because he is still very inexperienced for a 5yo, and WPM does not have the greatest of records with chasers in big races. If he were trained by PFN then that would be different!
Anyway, I think I have made my case against him! I'm sticking with Many Clouds!  |
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MAny Clouds is my pick at the moment, the only thing that bothers me is that the sire doesnt produce top class horses, i know that may not be needed but his offspring are rather appalling.
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Is Newbury due a deluge of rain tomorrow? Could favour Rocky Creek if so..dour stayer, likes cut, trained by you know who..
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I live in newbury, i would think its soft at the mo.
Everytime i look at the runners and i make a shortlist, RC is always in it. placepot banker. |
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I like Djackadam I know he's got a lot to prove but he looks chucked in.
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Two key chases run so far-PPGC and Betfair Chase. Both won by the Champion trainer despite all the negativity about his form on here. I will be having an interest in Fingal Bay but will also have some on every horse that Nicholls runs.
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is unioniste a possible???
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Anyone see the interview on RUK yesterday with Ricci?
Really bigging up D'jakadam off 142. He has always thought of him as a GC horse and is sure he will be a 160+ horse so he MUST be winning this off so low a rating. |
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On the back of Nicholls form I took 50's on here for Black Thunder yesterday just for a tenner and no idea if he will run but the Ascot race he was 2nd in has been a decent prep over the last few seasons. I think he'll improve for the trip, but will he run? The Druids Nephew is well in at the weights and I quite like him, but doubt he is classy enough. Smad Place wins first time up, course form, will like the going, 2nd season chaser what's not to like and I believe the most likely winner. Djakadam might win but not for me at the price with what he has shown on the track. Will be there Friday & Saturday, can't wait.
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Jodami managed to get beat in this off 151 before winning a Gold Cup
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Many positive factors point to Smad Place. 10/1 is a good price.
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I have been with smad place for a while now but weights will go up 4lb and he will have to carry 11-10 you have to be gold cup class to shoulder that in a hennessy I know djakadam is now a very short price for what he has actually achieved but he is the only horse in the field who could be thrown in at the weights
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Weight carried is relative to its rating. If Smad Place does win on Saturday, it is in no way a comparison to what Denman did in 2009. It will be a cracking performance but not of the same calibre unless he wins a distance. Put Denman in here off 174 means Smad Place would carry 10-05. Just shows how good Denman was. I actually think Smad Place could well be Gold Cup material. 3rd in 2 stayers hurdles and only beat 1/4L in RSA.
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yes I agree with what you are saying but I bet they wish there was a denman in the race so he could carry 10-5 I had a great bet on diamond harry the year he won helped because denman ran with top weight I can definitely see smad place being in the 4 but as for winning I am not so sure
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