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get as much as you can on Djakadam
will on the snaff |
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I like Djakadam but anyone backin at single figs this far out is off their rocker imo (hes 8s fav)
Has never won over further than 2m5 - has never won on ground with good in the description(may nt be but still), has never won in a field with a double digit amount runners (has fallen and unseated on both occassions that he has run with more than 10 runners) so may nt like horses around him |
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…..and no 5 year old has ever won it and he is trained by Willie Mullins and I can't remember an Irish trained horse winning this one without being drugged up (might be wrong) ………..an AP bet @ 8/1 should be followed quickly by a call to the men with white coats and padded cells. Now Smad Place. Thats different gravy.
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Harry Topper at 20's makes plenty of appeal.
Unexposed, likes Newbury and will enjoy the likely soft ground (n.b is one of the most ground-dependent horses in training however) |
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yes I fancied djakadam for the power mullins must think a lot of him to run in a hennessy with no form at 3m+ hennessys are brutal races with a relentless gallop and the fences take jumping no way I could bet him
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I like harry topper especially on heavy ground but he will have to improve his jumping, i know you cant really compare times on heavy in NH racing but.
feb8/2014 Harry Topper 11-10 3mNewbHvy 6m 8.83s Smad Place 11-5 3mNewbHvy 6m 26.20s |
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It was really bad ground that day and a few fences were omitted. But HT does seem to be top draw on Heavy, but unlikely to be ground that bad in 4 weeks time.
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saw some quotes from Kim Bailey to the effect that he would enter HT in this but was n't mad about the idea of running him, other options thin on the ground though - especially given his going requirements.
I seem to recall he said something similar about the race last year too - I s'pose they might be tempted to run if the ground does get very testing, he vaguely talked about the idea of finding 'something in Ireland' but surely they must be thinking about Welsh National, he would presumably need a prep run but the Hennessy would n't really qualify as ideal prep for Welsh National though I'm sure there are examples of horses who've run well in both (Merry King made a decent fist of both last year). If it does rain, I can see him rocking up in the Betfair Chase before going to Chepstow (or the Lexus I suppose). Needless to say this is all conjecture, speculation and guesswork on my part - I've no idea where he'll run, would n't be backing him for this before the final decs personally though. |
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these are the RP quotes from yday:
Harry Topper unlikely to defend Charlie Hall title By Bruce Jackson 2:29PM 28 OCT 2014 HARRY TOPPER, winner of the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase last year, is unlikely to attempt to defend his title on Saturday. The Kim Bailey-trained seven-year-old was 8-1 with William Hill to record back-to-back wins in the Wetherby race but Bailey said on Tuesday that he looks like missing the race. "It is unlikely he will run," he said. "I need rain not good ground with watering and without it he will sadly be staying at home. "He seems better than he was going into the race last year - I haven't seen him as well as he is at the moment." Bailey will be "scouring" the Irish programme book for opportunities with more likelihood of finding the soft ground Harry Topper needs. He added: "I entered him for the Hennessy today but that wouldn't be ideal for him but where he goes will be ground dependent." The going was described as good (watered) on Tuesday morning. |
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I think the only downside to HP running in the Hennessy, beside the ground, might be the size of the field which could put pressure on his jumping.
Newbury is a big wide track though and he does love it there, but like we say, it's all about the going for him. 20/1 still available if you're prepared to do a rain dance the next month! |
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Le Bec for me at this stage but he wants it like it was last year and that's asking a lot late november
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I don't know about anyone else but if it was not for connections of Djakadam hyping the horse up I wouldn't see him as anything special at this stage. Not from what we've seen on the track anyway. He may well win a handicap off 141, he is a probable certainty off that rating given the lofty entries, but he doesn't float my boat just yet.
Ground is crucial to Le Bec whom, along with Many Clouds, was my RSA bet last season. LB needs Good, MC needs Soft. Both big runners here, depending on the going. |
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Smad Place for me at present, goes on any ground, 2/2 at Newbury, and this is target re trainer,goes well fresh. Not too many negatives taken 13s on here.
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Fingal Bay is the great unknown. Philip Hobbs has never made any secret of his regard for the horse and everything pointed to a smooth progression from hurdles until he went left at Cheltenham when beaten by Dynaste-no disgrace getting beaten- but then next time he ran out. A year off with leg trouble may well suggest that he was feeling something on those last 2 chase runs. He came back over hurdles and I was lucky enough to meet an owner in the yard who told me that he was very well fancied for both of his wins last year. He is rated the same over hurdles and fences but Philip said recently that he was more likely to improve over fences than over hurdles. It will be a very big ask in a race like the Hennessy but he coped with a big field in the Pertemps. I think he is the horse with the most potential in the race but 10/1 is very short.
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Smad Place of obvious interest but not won above class 3 chasing is he a nearly horse if it rides soft or worse got to be in the 4
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Le Bec runs today at Ascot. No bet for me though he does have his ground.
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well I have never been so undecided about a hennessy last years novice form looks the worst for a long time I mentioned smad place, all I can say is you have got to think he can do it on his world hurdle exploits, black thunder put in a better performance today and he possibly has place prospects but I will keep looking and hopefully find something
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many clouds must have every chance after the win today.
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No if he goes up 10lb!
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yes bound to get a hike in the weights and he has never convinced me as a 3m+ horse
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le bec out for the rest of the season with tendon injury.
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SMAD PLACE for me, he done absolutely nothing wrong over fences, and Newburys flat track may suit better than Cheltenham.
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Tim Syder isnt having much luck this season, lost Timesremembered and now Le Bec out injured.
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Rocky Creek seems a big price at 20s.
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THE HENNESSY GOLD CUP STEEPLE CHASE (HANDICAP) (CLASS 1) (Grade 3) Total prize fund £175,000
Horse Weight Age Owner Trainer Harry Topper 11st 12lb 7 Mr A.N Solomons Kim Bailey First Lieutenant (IRE) 11st 12lb 9 Gigginstown House Stud M. F. Morris Don Cossack (GER) 11st 11lb 7 Gigginstown House Stud Gordon Elliott Champagne Fever (IRE) 11st 9lb 7 Mrs S. Ricci W. P. Mullins Houblon des Obeaux (FR) 11st 8lb 7 Mrs Julian Blackwell Venetia Williams Triolo d’Alene (FR) 11st 8lb 7 Mr & Mrs Sandy Orr Nicky Henderson Lyreen Legend (IRE) 11st 8lb 7 Lyreen Syndicate D. T. Hughes Rocky Creek (IRE) 11st 7lb 8 The Johnson & Stewart Families Paul Nicholls Ballynagour (IRE) 11st 6lb 8 Mr Allan Stennett David Pipe Black Thunder (FR) 11st 6lb 7 Donlon, MacDonald, Fulton & Webb Paul Nicholls Smad Place (FR) 11st 6lb 7 Mrs Peter Andrews Alan King Ballycasey (IRE) 11st 6lb 7 Mrs S. Ricci W. P. Mullins Medermit (FR) 11st 6lb 10 The Dunkley & Reilly Partnership Alan King Bury Parade (IRE) 11st 4lb 8 HighclereThoroughbredRacing- Bury Parade Paul Nicholls Fingal Bay (IRE) 11st 4lb 8 Mrs R. J. Skan Philip Hobbs Hadrian’s Approach (IRE) 11st 4lb 7 Mr & Mrs R. Kelvin-Hughes Nicky Henderson Vino Griego (FR) 11st 3lb 9 Mr C. E. Stedman Gary Moore Many Clouds (IRE) 11st 2lb 7 Mr Trevor Hemmings Oliver Sherwood Walkon (FR) 11st 2lb 9 McNeill Family Alan King Unioniste (FR) 11st 2lb 6 Mr J. Hales Paul Nicholls Katenko (FR) 11st 2lb 8 Mr A. Brooks Venetia Williams Theatre Guide (IRE) 11st 1lb 7 Mrs Jean R. Bishop Colin Tizzard Easter Meteor (GB) 10st 13lb 8 Mr & Mrs S. C. Willes David Pipe Restless Harry (GB) 10st 12lb 10 Mr R. G. Whitehead Robin Dickin Sam Winner (FR) 10st 12lb 7 Mrs Angela Yeoman Paul Nicholls Monbeg Dude (IRE) 10st 11lb 9 Oydunow Michael Scudamore Annacotty (IRE) 10st 11lb 6 Mrs Peter Prowting Martin Keighley Buywise (IRE) 10st 11lb 7 Mr T. Hywel Jones Evan Williams Wiesentraum (GER) 10st 10lb 8 G. Pascoe & S. Brewer Lucy Wadham Easter Day (FR) 10st 13lb 6 B. Fulton, Broughton Thermal Insulation Paul Nicholls Mendip Express (IRE) 10st 9lb 8 The Mendip Syndicate Harry Fry Present View (GB) 10st 9lb 6 Sir Chips Keswick Jamie Snowden Lamb Or Cod (IRE) 10st 9lb 7 Mr Terry Warner Philip Hobbs What A Warrior (IRE) 10st 7lb 7 Mr & Mrs Gordon Pink Dan Skelton Pantxoa (FR) 10st 7lb 7 Mrs June Watts Alan King Djakadam (FR) 10st 7lb 5 Mrs S. Ricci W. P. Mullins Roalco de Farges (FR) 10st 7lb 9 The Brushmakers Philip Hobbs The Druids Nephew (IRE) 10st 6lb 7 The Stonehenge Druids Neil Mulholland Wychwoods Brook (GB) 10st 6lb 8 Kevin & Anne Glastonbury Evan Williams The Paparrazi Kid (IRE) 10st 6lb 7 Byerley Thoroughbred Racing W. P. Mullins Midnight Prayer (GB) 10st 6lb 9 The Legends Partnership Alan King Just A Par (IRE) 10st 6lb 7 Paul K. Barber & C. G. Roach Paul Nicholls Via Sundown (FR) 10st 5lb 6 The Old Brokers Gary Moore Mountainous (IRE) 10st 5lb 9 Walters Plant Hire & James & Jean Potter Richard Lee Court In Motion (IRE) 10st 5lb 9 Mr N. Mustoe Emma Lavelle Knock A Hand (IRE) 10st 4lb 9 Mr Alan Halsall Richard Lee Mullaghanoe River (IRE) 10st 4lb 6 Mrs Patricia Hunt Noel Meade Victors Serenade (IRE) 10st 4lb 9 Michael & Angela Bone Anthony Honeyball Le Reve (IRE) 10st 4lb 6 Mr P. H. Betts Lucy Wadham Merry King (IRE) 10st 3lb 7 Mr F. Gillespie Jonjo O’Neill Edmund Kean (IRE) 10st 2lb 7 Walters Plant Hire & James & Jean Potter Peter Bowen Gallant Oscar (IRE) 10st 1lb 8 Mr G. Kelly A. J. Martin Gevrey Chambertin (FR) 10st 0lb 6 Roger Stanley & Yvonne Reynolds III David Pipe Handy Andy (IRE) 9st 8lb 8 Brocade Racing Colin Tizzard Tour des Champs (FR) 9st 6lb 7 Mr H. R. Mould Nigel Twiston-Davies Saroque (IRE) 9st 4lb 7 Mr A. Brookes Venetia Williams |
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Many Clouds up 7lb. Taken 10/1 eachway.
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MC pricewised today too
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Ah right didn't know that, cheers. Could go off favourite.
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What's the maximum field size this? Djackadam 36th on that list but I'm assuming will get in?
I really think off 10 stone 7 he should be winning this and if he is to go on to the lofty heights expected of him I think he is a bit of a pre Christmas gift!!! ![]() |
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Will he get the trip? Very harsh on a 5yo.
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My advice would be to hold on all bets on Djakadam for this. Far from convinced Willie will travel over with him…………...
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willie said this week, the hennessy was the target.
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Rocky Creek e/w for me.
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ash……….I hear ya…………definitely won't be over then !
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Paul Nicholls say Sam Winner will prob go becher Chase week after the Hennessy
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Seriously struggling to see why Djakadam is 8/1 favourite here. For me that price is all about hype, talk, and potential. Asking a 5yo to run an extended 3 miles in this grade is a hard task, Big Bucks struggled to do it. Djakadam has never raced beyond 21f, comes into the race on the back of a fall with just 3 chase starts and he needs to prove he has improved beyond the 11lb allowance he got on occasion last season. No doubt he is choc full of promise etc etc, Rich Ricci loves him, but his price is a Djoke. He should be 16/1 not 8.
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Diamond Harry won the race with only 3 previous chase starts to break the long standing trend of needing over 3 but he did it as a 7yo and had proven himself top class by winning the Fixed Brush Hurdle at Haydock off 149 carrying 11st12. After that run he placed behind Big Bucks.
Djakadam has proven nothing like that level of form. |
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It's Mullins hype.
He probably wont even run. If he does he'll be pulled up and be back over 2m4f at Christmas. |
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The more I look at this race, and try a deciphers whos running, and whos not, the more I keep coming back to my original thought that SMAD PLACE is this years winner.
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