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More rain forecast overnight & during race time
![]() Bloody nightmare ![]() Heavy ground is a great leveller in form & class. Like 2day, tread carefully 2moro imo. |
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Charm Spirit for me.
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On this ground every bet is decidedly risky.
So I`m going to give a small amount of money away on the clock horse, Kingsbarns e-w. |
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Fastest here on my clock is Integral. I have her Ascot win 2lbs better than the slightly overrated (imo)Guineas form and with the 3lbs allowance she meets the 3yos at level weights. The run in France can be forgiven as she returned with bruised feet but maybe she was just feeling the effects of her previous two races anyway. She proved at Newmarket that she handles soft well and looking at the straight reading today I'm not expecting it to be markedly softer. Her latest win was only 2 weeks ago but as it was slowly run I wouldn't usually expect that kind of race to have taken too much out of her.
I'm not sure if Night of Thunder is still the same horse that won the Guineas, maybe these soft conditions can bring about a return to his best but I wouldn't bank on it, if at his best he can go close. I'm not convinced Charm Spirit has improved much since the Guineas and think it's more likely he's been taking advantage of slowly run races. If he wins so be it but there's no way I could back him. Basically I believe if Integral runs her race she wins and I'm having a good bet on her. |
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I have backed Charm Spirit at 9/2. There were excuses for him at Newmarket and he keeps improving. He has a couple of pounds to find if Night Of Thunder reproduces his Guineas form but 9/2 looks fair.
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Well done Charm Spirit backers, obviously better than I'd credited him. Troubled run from Integral, although I'm not sure what was in the tank anyway.
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A noticeably slow comparative time for this race. Those held up had to be disadvantaged, particularly in that ground, don't know what those jockeys were thinking of really as even to the eye it looked a moderate pace. Not that I'm saying the winner wouldn't have won anyway.
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I suppose the winner had an obvious chance but I thought Toormore was particularly unlucky. I don't know who makes the decisions but KF missed a chance to press for the lead drawn 11 he gave it up without a fight and then spent four furlongs strangeling his mount. He was crossed by NOT a furlong out and still nearly ran him down with hardly any use of the whip. May not have won but should have finished in front of NOT in any event.
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I definitely underrated Charm Spirit but still not sure as to the extent to which I underestimated NOT. perhaps he would have won with a better ride - why hold him up at the rear on the rail - but I'm not sure he was good enough anyway.
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I'm not too sure about that, Howellsy. When you look at the way NoT was finishing compared to the winner and compare his latter sectionals then it's not so clear cut who the better horse was. Of course it's all relative and if you do less early, like NoT, then you're more likely to be running faster late, but given that it was a slowly run early pace on soft ground leading to a relatively poor overall time then it's a possibilty if you switched jockeys you'd switch the result.
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The first three might finish in a different order with different draw/going. I was on Tullius win and place and went from getting excited about a possible win at the furlong pole to losing both bets in 100 yards.
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Thought NOT should have won that. Had a feeling before race Hughes would find trouble but always possible it would pan out that way. Charm Spirit is to be retired now.
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I thought Toormore should have won. KF had the plum draw and gave it up cheaply for no apparent reason. Especially as it was likely they would go steady on the ground and his best performane this seasonwas from the front, just didn't make any sense. He then spent 4 furlongs strangling it before looking for an out. Was crossed by NOT a furlong out and was beaten nothing by him at the death. I did back him for a place at 6s so came out of it OK but should have won imo. NOT was always going to be held up and Hughsie would have to come around the field and he nearly did it. It just looked at the death like he wasn't getting the winner. I could be wrong about that.
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See things as they are and not how you want them to be. The best horse on the day won and also didn`t have an untroubled passage.
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Olympic Glory should have won.
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It's not just a case of the troubled passage, which sometimes can't be helped, it's more about the tactics of holding a horse up in rear in soft ground in what was obviously panning out to be a slowly run race. It's known that it's more difficult to make up a lot of ground in soft going (although it's a lot easier when they go too fast, as in Madame Chiang's race). The more slowly run the race the more chance of finding trouble but most importantly the more slowly run the race the more difficult it is to give ground away early on.
NoT doesn't have to be ridden like that, he won his first two starts in soft ground tracking the leaders, he also wasn't right out at the back in the Guineas. I wouldn't be sure if he could've turned the form around in different circumstances but given the data there's certainly an argument that he might have and in my view the jockey didn't give him the best chance of winning. |
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Couldn't disagree with that F. What did you think about Toormore, s run? I think he was one of yours before the 2000 gns.
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I am Felt. My opinion.
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Toormore not good enough, imo. I rated him highly before the Guineas but in hindsight I see where I went wrong, we can't always get it right but on this occasion my judgement was crap, as poor as Hughes' tactics on NoT (regardless of whether he would've won or not). I wonder if he will be so ready to admit his error or will he dismiss it as bad luck and £10 punter pocket talk, even though my 'tenner' went elsewhere.
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Toormore beaten a half length by NOT with RH getting a whip ban. Something to look forward to for next year I think. Be intersting in the Lockinge if Hughsie switches back.
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looking at the toormore run again.....THATS A SHOCKER
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Messy race full-stop imo
![]() All wanting to huddle over to the standside rail for better ground. Very steady pace, then a 3f sprint to the line (French style racing) & winner .Hold-up horses at a disadvantage the way things panned out. Only ones happy with the result were the backers of the winner (punters wise) WD ![]() |
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Thought it was Toormore's best performance this season. The first time he has ran to the line. Maybe the change if tactics by KF was the reason why.
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