Yeah I see that but surely they update it daily? Or not? Does the RP website take its going description from the latest turftrax or does the c.o.c update them? Given its a major factor in most bettors selection process it would help to know what current conditions are, given the majority of courses update very frequently when theres a major handicap on the horizon.

Quick jack is a very short price despite his obvious appeal. Bound to be a bigger price on the day, particularly if he gets whats perceived to be a poor draw.

forecasting possibly 3 hours of heavy ran between 11 and 1pm tomorrow

Graham Lee booked for Saddlers Rock so presuming no rise in weights.

I could see there being a huge gamble on Quick Jack.

Teak was withdrawn from the Cesarewitch trial won by see and be seen  when the ground came up soft ,  he had  romped clear of  See and be seen at  Bath the time before on g/f  and was value for another two or three lengths imo , no Jockey yet booked , hope they use a good claimer  and of course  soft ground is not up his street , leave it to   Big easy  in that event,  looks very hard to keep out of places  with ease in the ground , quick jack is a bit of an enigma , looks to have a non staying pedigree but so did Leg Spinner !.

TEAK: would have a chance but won't get his ground. As he is so much on the up and thriving though, he might go on any ground, but soft is definitely a doubt.

SADDLERS ROCK: is obviously very classy and Lee being up is eye catching, but doesn't compare at all to Tominator winning the Plate under Lee as at that time last summer John Joe was in incredible form and everything he sent out was winning. I'm not saying JJ isn't in form now, but right back then he could of sent a cat out to win the Derby. I remember a summer B handicap chase at the time where he had 3 in it. I backed a yoke of Bowens at 20/1, he led over the last but got nabbed by one of JJ's whose 3 all finished in the 1st 4. Also, as you said, Tominator was a very consistent in-form animal whereas Saddlers Rock is badly out of form and on a losing run of 14. And besides, even at his best he looked a bit of a dog.

COMMUNICATOR: Has the ability to win this but never looked the most resolute to me as evidenced by a strike rate of 2 from 29 and 1 from his last 26. You generally need a tough boyo to win this, one that will think about nothing else in the last furlong but winning the scrap to get in front. I would have my doubts about this boy in the heat of battle.

DE RIGUEUR, on the other hand has a strike rate of 11 from 25 and is a lot more reliable and tough in addition to having superior form.

QUICK JACK: Has an obvious chance and obviously laid out for this. Not sure how well handicapped he is though, getting only 7ib from the likes of De Rigueur. I think he will stay alright. The sire, Footstepsinthesand, has got some stayers and was very stoutly bred himself by Giants Causeway (a big stamina influence as all Eclipse winners BC Classic horses prove to be) out of a stoutly bred mare. FSITS might of been a miler himself but the stamina is there in the blood. Quick Jack's dam is by Polar Falcon who sired a lot of tough sorts who stayed farther than expected and QJ'c grand dam is by huge stamina influence Ela Mana Mou. I think he will stay alright. I would be more worried about Hughes riding him. If he is not on the bit 2 out Hughes will give up and if you are on eway then don't expect Richie to ride him out for the place. 6's is a ridic price. Certainly one of the very likely winners but would want to be getting 14's and that won't happen.

Some others towards the top of the market:

RAY WARD & MOIDORE: Both are no good and have no chance. They are also by Galileo and have given up trying hard enough to win a Ces. Both are 40/1 shots.

BIG EASY: Has a squeak but hasn't won on the flat for over 3 and a half years. He was drawn badly last year but was still hammered and under pressure 5 out at a time when the stable was firing. He was also well beaten in the Ascot Stakes last year and his only flat run of note in the last 3 years was last time out but that was a weak race. He also doesn't compare to Detroit City as Hobbs suggested as that one was a lightly raced 4 y old on a winning run, including two Grade 1's in his previous two runs over hurdles. They have nothing in common except owner & trainer and being big horses. Grasping at straws there Mr Hobbs! Wouldn't be enough to sway me anyway @ 12's. ridic price.

SWNYMOR: Definitely has a chance and obviously laid out for this by a good yard recently in the winners. The way he won @ Chester left a lasting memory and he got no run at Galway the last day behind Quick Jack. Would be afraid of this fellow who could have just improved a lot since joining Quinn. Again though he only gets 6ib off De Rigueur and that one is more solid and has much better form.

SUEGIOO: Is solid and definitely has a chance. I could see him running into a place without winning it. If he is drawn well and it's not a total bog, then 4/1 on the place market would be fair enough.

Of those at bigger odds:

EARTH AMBER: I steamed into this one last year at big prices. Dunno. She could win it but I wouldn't trust her and Henderson, though obviously dangerous, wasn't in the same form last year as previously and doesn't seem to have regained top top form. It was right at this time last year he lost that lightning hot form of the previous few years. 

GROOVEJET: This one could win it. Chapple Hyam showing up as coming into a bit of form recently and we all know how dangerous he can be. This filly might not look on breeding to be an obvious stayer, but there is stamina in her blood and she does shape like a stayer. Her last two runs showed very good form and with the weight allowance she could spring a shock. She lacks experience, but ran well in a big field the last day after getting caught wide. I think she has loads of ability but might be a bit lazy as opposed to nervy. Hard to explain, but even though she is tempermental, I don't think this type of race & 36 runners will faze her tbh.  I see Norton is booked. Watch the market for this one and I wouldn't be surprised if Peter threw a 1st time tongue strap or some head gear on her.

MAID IN RIO: Has it to do and isn't bred for it but has the weight allowance and is trained by Johnston and has good form from the summer. You never know.

Overall DE RIGUEUR ticks most box's for me.

I take your point about Communicators strike rate but it doesnt pay to be too dogmatic in a race like the ces. The winners have been a right mixed bag from relatively lightly raced sorts to the likes of caraciola who hadnt won for years but more importantly had form in one of the big staying handicaps - chester cup/pitmans derby/ascot stakes /ces in the past.
The stable managed to win a nice pot with Intransigent who was 2 from 20 on turf before saturday so all is not lost.I'll be going in e/w anyway and to me is the sort who will run on late for at least a place. The trip should suit - he was staying on late behind Joshs Hill over 2m in soft ground at Newbury in his only run over over hurdles and in the chester cup so I'll go with him though Id like to see a bit of rain fall today as its forecast and there isnt much more before saturday.

bazzar     08 Oct 14 11:02 
You mentioned many horses, yet failed to mention the probable winner!!!!!



Imo he did !

@ Bazzar: How obvious is it from my posts in this thread who I think is the horse to be on? I mean, really.

@ Betilyerded : I see your point about the varying types that can win this race e.g Caracciola (who incidentally had won on the flat the previous season.) You are correct it doesn't pay to be too dogmatic in this race. Definitely true.
I wouldn't compare Communicator to Intransigent. Reasons: Balding is great at gradually improving horses. There is a long list of his horses the last few years that have gone from marks in the 80's and improved gradually between ages 4 & 6 to go from marks in the 80's to being 110+ horses e.g. Intransigent, Highland Colori, Highland Knight, Tulius, Whiplash Willie, Rawaki, Passing Glance, Side Glance. He does a great job with them and they improve gradually if you study their profiles. Communicator doesn't look like one of these. His best form was in 2012 as a 4 year old, that's when he looked like he was going to kick on, but he hasn't and hasn't progressed at all in 2013 & 2014 (even with the yard in v good form) and hasn't won in his last 14 tries whereas Intransigent had won 2 runs before from a subsequent Group winner and looked to be still progressing. Communicator is also now 6 and his mark has gone nowhere since his 3 year old days. If Balding hasn't got it out of him by now I don't see it happening. He isn't trying his hardest and to me seems more likely to chuck it in a race like this than to put his head down. Carraciola was, as you said, a proven battler in tough races. Communicator has proven he has the ability but doesn't go through with it.

Just my 2 cent.

gl

All good points gamera. Guess im just pinning my hopes on the uniqueness of the race and the extra distance helping him - as it did in the chester cup - Balding being a target trainer (and he flagged this up as a target at the start of the season) and blind faith! I agree with you on De Riguer as he is still potentially very well handicapped. Hoping he bombs and then look out for him in next years chester cup

Big Easy may have run in a weak race last time but he is officially 3lb well in as he races off 87 not his new rating of 90. I agree the comparisons with Detroit City are a little hard to work as DC was a potential top-notcher over hurdles before he won this. However, BE has had a prep run coming into the race this year, something he did not have last year, and the prize money for this years race is £150k to the winner, or thereabouts, something which Phillip Hobbs has alluded too. Big Easy is a decent staying handicapper over jumps with a rating of 136, but that is all he'll be. Back on the flat with very few runs under his belt he cold be a bit better than 87. It's clear Hobbsy has targetted this race from some way out.

Good ground , good , soft ground bookie ground

@ Madhu: Re: Swnymor: I would agree that he doesn't have the same profile as Countrywide Flame, but I think you are overlooking the fact that he could have improved significantly since joining John Quinn, who has improved a lot of horses over the years. He really looked like a new horse @ Chester in his first run for Quinn. He is also a typically big Dylan Thomas that needed time to fill into his frame and keeps improving, similarly to Captain Cat, Pethers Moon, Blazing Speed. As a raw 3 year old he had solid form in the high 80's for William Haggas and Haggas is always easy on big raw types early in their careers (he didn't run @ 2 and was very green in first run in May of 3 year old year.) At the end of his 3 year old year he went to Tim Vaughan who is not a top trainer and the horse never really took to hurdles, running in the Triumph when he really wasn't mature enough and was a poor jumper in what was just his 11th career race in total. A lot of people think that just because a flat horse is big that they are ready for hurdles. This fellow, like many others, just wasn't ready mentally. After 4 runs for Vaughan he then went to Rebecca Curtis who was badly out of form for most of last NH season so most of his runs for her can also be overlooked. Now he is with Quinn and based on the Chester run he might just have finally got the message and matured mentally and physically as he is now a 5 year old. Countrywide Flame was a different type of horse altogether. He was by Haafhd and they improve in a different way to Dylan Thomas horses. CF was a lot smaller and ran 9 times as a 2 year old for Kevin Ryan. Quinn got him as a 3 year old with a flat rating of just 72 and he started improving dramatically as soon as John got him. He was already toughened and mature for a 3 year old after 13 races for Ryan (9 as a 2 year old) and was mentally ready for hurdling, loved it and started thriving and of course went on to win the Triumph in what was his 23rd race (contrast this to Swnymor for who the Triumph was only his 11th race). Then he came back to the flat with a lovely mark and nearly added a Ces in what was his 26th race. They are just different types with different backgrounds and different types improve in different ways and at different rates depending on many factors like breeding & trainers etc etc. Spotting them when they are ready to start improving is the key ;)

I dunno, his mark is still high enough for what he has achieved and De Rigueur is just a much more solid proposition, but Swnymor has loads of ability and could just be a new horse now for John Quinn. I would certainly be afraid of him.

Ooops - that should be tongue TIE. Bit cruel to whip who whole thing out, though sometimes when my wife starts....

Stall 2 for Big Easy. Stark contrast to 36 last season. No excuses now.

Final analysis of this race for me :-

Quick Jack
Big Easy

I dont have a portfolio - just a couple of e/w bets
Communicator and big bad Jonny Delta.

Communicator and Groovejet for me, both drawn well. I especially like Groovejet at 28/1

Sticking with Big Easy, looks wide open as usual! gl all.

Get the frick in!!!!!!!!!