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johnners
29 Sep 14 21:50
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Date Joined: 10 Oct 01
| Topic/replies: 32 | Blogger: johnners's blog
Cant believe there isn't a Ces thread already, so I'll kick it off. Decs tomorrow and the Harrow mob have promoted Pallasator to 8/1 fav. 38 on here suggests to me that he won't stand his ground#only saying.

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Replies: 90
By:
victor0151
When: 30 Sep 14 11:02
I am interested in Retirement Plan as he appears to be crying out for this trip and could be a Cup horse next season. Not a fan of young Master Doyle but am prepared to take a chance. Horse appears happy on any ground.
By:
sintonian
When: 30 Sep 14 12:49
Johnners, do you know what I can't believe....that you opened your account in 2001 and this is your first ever post!
By:
sintonian
When: 30 Sep 14 12:50
Oh look, and Victor opened his in 2002 and has just made his/her first ever post.

AMAZING.
By:
johnners
When: 30 Sep 14 16:23
Not correct Sintonian,have posted many times before although not recently. Software must be wrong. Cant believe that no site has got up to date betting after forfeit stage. Personally backed Quick Jack at 10/1 with the Harrow mob. Could do with a bit of rain in the next week and a half.
By:
victor0151
When: 30 Sep 14 19:45
Correct Sintonian but better late than never. Just realised that her Ladyship hasn't trained a winner for about the same length of time. That could be a serious flaw in my Retirement Plan.
By:
sintonian
When: 30 Sep 14 20:31
I couldn't have Pallasator in a month of Sundays for this race. Happy for him to be favourite though!
By:
Madhu
When: 01 Oct 14 00:10
Been a while since I’ve posted and surprised how late thread for Cesarewitch is too. My last post on this race was when Never Can Tell, one of my 8 arrows struck and won from the front when drawn 36 on the wide outside. As regards Pallasator this was Sir Mark’s quote after last win at Newmarket-

“There was talk of his going to Australia at one stage but the second verse of the Irish national anthem found him out at The Curragh last time. He was bought to win the stayers’ race on Champions’ Day by the sponsors and hopefully he will – but he’s idiosyncratic to say the least.”

He went to over 100 on Betfair for around a tenner laid a few days before that win, so I guess he won’t be turning up. Although surprisingly Ladbrokes made him 8/1 fav a few days ago!
Quick Jack seems nicely weighted and consistent, and has won at Newmarket beating Nautilus who has since won 3 races and gone up 26lb since. Tony Martin won with Leg Spinner in 2007. He could hose up and be a good price at 10/1 if it is soft ground but last time out winners have a poor record.  It does look as though John Quinn has two backed in Swnymor and Moidore but it does seem a weak market this year.
I would think you are going to need to be in the mid 80’s to get in. I think it is a void bet if balloted out. There are usually around 34 runners. Betfair and some bookies have voided a number of horses before the decs are known to us tomorrow- later today- through the RP or SPLife- the 2 Brian Ellison horses, Stand to Reason and Spiritoftomintoul, while the others are to low down to get in.
My four arrows this year are De Rigueur, Hassle, Villa Royale and Big Orange all at nice odds and fingers crossed they all are drawn low. I had Mubaraza but got out and had Edge of Sanity but that looks a non-runner. Good luck everyone.
By:
johnners
When: 01 Oct 14 05:56
I have also had a miniscule bet on Gabrial's star at massive odds. Ran an eye catching race over mile six at weekend.
By:
bluebirdfan
When: 01 Oct 14 11:50
What do any of the flat guys make of Quick Jack? I fully expect him to win a big handicap hurdle this season but just wondered how his flat rating looks. I imagine he'd need a lot of rain as a NH horse??
By:
metro john
When: 01 Oct 14 12:05
Big Orange + Dashing Star winners for me.
By:
BJG
When: 01 Oct 14 12:08
Both NRs - ul
By:
metro john
When: 01 Oct 14 12:23
oh well Digeanta e/w it is thenCry
By:
BJG
When: 01 Oct 14 12:52
1    941505    Eye Of The Storm13      4    9-9    A P O´Brien        109    94    112
2    7/1-12    Flying Officer16    4    9-6    John Gosden        109    62    119
3    5-0060    Saddler´s Rock114      6    9-4    Jonjo O´Neill        104    92    122
4    155346    Brass Ring29      4    9-3    John Gosden        103    95    119
5    6-8055    Biographer29    5    9-2    David Lanigan        103    97    124
6    711245    El Salvador65    5    9-2    A P O´Brien        102    77    119
7    31293    Suegioo29    5    9-2    Marco Botti        102    92    119
8    971103    De Rigueur42    6    9-1    Marco Botti        101    98    119
9    320009    Repeater21    5    9-0    David O´Meara        96    82    120
10    60-928    Nearly Caught49    4    8-13    Hughie Morrison        99    108    121
11    70-229    Earth Amber63    5    8-12    Nicky Henderson        98    87    121
12    43-240    Mubaraza21    5    8-12    Ed Dunlop        96    113    122
13    059644    Statutory39      4    8-11    Saeed bin Suroor        96    86    119
14    3/6-15    Swnymor75    5    8-9    John Quinn        95    88    116
15    07608    Big Thunder29    4    8-8    Sir Mark Prescott Bt        93    81    119
16    241435    Noble Silk42    5    8-8    Lucy Wadham        94    108    121
17    1212-1    Quick Jack75    5    8-8    A J Martin        94    104    112
18    33411    Rhombus22 4x    4    8-8    Ismail Mohammed        102    101    123
19    433303    Communicator35    6    8-7    Andrew Balding        93    112    121
20    09623    Ray Ward21      4    8-7    David Simcock        93    99    120
21    114510    Villa Royale116    5    8-7    Michael Appleby        93    106    119
22    924018    Gabrial´s King21    5    8-6    David Simcock        91    98    120
23    311774    Maid In Rio37      3    8-5    Mark Johnston        102    81    117
24    46/371    Ted Spread140    7    8-5    Suzy Smith        91    102    121
25    255440    Debdebdeb30    4    8-4    Andrew Balding        89    104    120
26    1-3247    Sohar30      6    8-4    James Toller        90    103    121
27    20/0-0    Very Good Day29    7    8-4    Richard Fahey        90    72    94
28    426600    Egyptian Warrior24J    5    8-3    A P O´Brien        87    113    117
29    83972    Lady Kashaan23    5    8-2    Alan Swinbank        87    111    120
30    115515    Spice Fair39    7    8-2    Mark Usher        87    106    117
31    064200    Be Perfect22      5    8-1    David Nicholls        84    105    117
32    0/80-2    Big Easy21    7    8-1    Philip Hobbs        90    78    124
33    3-3817    Digeanta28    7    8-1    W P Mullins        86    105    114
34    009153    Moidore22    5    8-0    John Quinn        86    106    120
35    410844    Gabrial´s Star14    5    7-13    Richard Fahey        83    100    121
36    15-200    Sula Two14    7    7-13    Jo Hughes        83    90    117
37    285352    Groovejet30    3    7-12    Peter Chapple-Hyam        101    109    119
38    10/751    Hidden Universe74    8    7-12    D K Weld        84    73    112
39    188130    Mr Burbidge176    6    7-12    Neil Mulholland        84    97    118
40    205235    Sir Frank Morgan21    4    7-11    Mark Johnston        81    98    117
41    50-308    Albert Bridge42    6    7-10    Ralph Beckett        82    95    117
42    1-256P    Dark Ranger112      8    7-10    Tim Pitt        82    50    112
43    760532    Modernism11      5    7-10    David Simcock        79    90    122
44    00084    Waterclock18    5    7-10    Jedd O´Keeffe        80    84    111
45    685774    Argent Knight21    4    7-9    William Jarvis        80    98    121
46    051671    Laughing Jack45    6    7-9    George Baker        81    103    113
47    12841-    Royal Signaller392    4    7-9    Simon Earle        81    —    —
48    11/145    Solar View73    5    7-8    Sir Mark Prescott Bt        80    89    113
49    51161    Vent De Force49    3    7-8    Hughie Morrison        92    108    113
50    213911    Teak20J 4x      7    7-8    Ian Williams        90    92    116
51    157982    Jonny Delta22    7    7-7    Jim Goldie        81    103    115
52    413329    Longshadow22    4    7-6    Jason Ward        77    101    111
53    4143-1    Rutherglen211J    4    7-6    John Quinn        78    82    110
54    49-567    First Avenue112    9    7-5    Laura Mongan        77    95    118
55    371203    Knightly Escapade34    6    7-5    Brian Ellison        76    103    112
56    212138    Maoi Chinn Tire22    7    7-5    Jennie Candlish        76    88    110
57    115074    Special Fighter27    3    7-5    Mark Johnston        84    98    107
58    68/127    Bob´s World149    5    7-4    Jennie Candlish        76    100    112
59    452937    Ex Oriente21    5    7-4    Stuart Williams        78    104    112
60    412721    See And Be Seen21 4x     4    7-3    Sylvester Kirk        83    73    113
61    67-121    Clondaw Warrior33    7    7-2    W P Mullins        87    81    107
62    4-8105    Caledonia18    7    7-0    Jim Goldie        71    84    106
63    344447    Aleksandar13    5    6-13    Jim Goldie        69    71    103
64    0-7062    Ermyn Lodge18    8    6-4    Pat Phelan        64    —    92
By:
betilyerded
When: 01 Oct 14 19:05
At this stage both Swynymor (been nicely backed of late and confirmed by Quinn in todays R&Fo as his target) and Dashing Star (who keeps running well in all the right races and is screaming for a step up in trip) appeal. I do, however, think that 33-1 Communicator, granted a bit of dig, is overpriced at 33-1 given his staying on 5th in last years November Handicap and his run - off the same mark - in the chester cup, particularly when the 1st & 2nd went on to fill the same places in the Northumberland Plate. My other pick at a big price is Jonnie Delta who should have finished closer than 7th in last years race, under a weak Jack Garrity ride ( I tipped him up to my mate who texted after the race "who was the bird riding Jonnie Delta"?). Won nicely first time up this year and looks like he's been laid out for this again. 50-1 is a good e/w price for me and should just sneak again at the bottom.
By:
Madhu
When: 02 Oct 14 00:47
Just added another arrow in Brass Ring as looked at form with Estimate and run after pulling hard at Ascot looks good.
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 02 Oct 14 12:59
This a race I have a terrible record inCry but doesn't stop me getting dragged in every year! Popsi's Joy and Detroit City the only two I can remember backingCrazy I'm doing a rain dance for Quick Jack backed him at Galway and he is a real job horse.
By:
Madhu
When: 03 Oct 14 00:19
Just backed Mubaraza in again at good odds, so one more arrow!
By:
betilyerded
When: 03 Oct 14 08:34
Im sure I read somewhere that Big Orange wasnt going in preference of another engagement. This weekend maybe?
Seems to be a bit of rain around next week which would increase confidence in Communicator
By:
sintonian
When: 03 Oct 14 10:38
He runs today.
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 03 Oct 14 10:57
Big Orange isn't even entered in the Ces or Dashing Star.
By:
bazzar
When: 03 Oct 14 16:09
Big Orange was entered but withdrawn yesterday, ran for
£21000 instead of going for £155000, don't understand
some of these trainers thinking, wants to race in group
long distance cup races next season, but nothing wrong with picking
up a valuable handicap along the way.
Today he gave weight in a listed race, could have received weight in
Cesarewitch!!!!
By:
betilyerded
When: 03 Oct 14 16:58
Dashing Star was in but has obviously been withdrawn after his run last weekend. Thats one off the list anyway1
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 03 Oct 14 17:56
Both were entered but neither are anymore which is what I'm sayingWink
By:
mac99
When: 06 Oct 14 06:31
Biographer looks the right type for this race , down to a mark of 102 from a  high of 109  and relatively lightly raced he has good e/w credentials , he ran on really well to take fifth place in the Doncaster Cup  behind Estimate , he is probably never going to win  one of the  Cup races now , but is right on the cusp of that quality .  He goes well on  on g/s ground  but handles g/f  if it comes to that ,which is unlikely , his main attribute is his staying ability , this will always have been a target for him  and all being well  should run very well in this hoary old marathon of a race .GL
By:
Facts
When: 06 Oct 14 06:37
Quick Jack for me. A really talented and versatile horse. Not a bad trainer either !
By:
knot in wood
When: 06 Oct 14 07:13
unless connections have a change of mind, biographer will not run mac99.
By:
mac99
When: 06 Oct 14 08:03
Yes, looks like he is out , perhaps the Horse has a problem because it looked like a great opportunity , thx.
By:
knot in wood
When: 06 Oct 14 08:19
runs the week after ascot
By:
metro john
When: 06 Oct 14 08:33
Digeanta, looks a solid e/w option.
By:
gamerawins
When: 06 Oct 14 12:09
De Rigueur standing out a mile for me @ 20's. Stable mate Suegioo now into 12's & 14's but is Botti second string if you look at blog entry on Botti's website from September 21st where he says De Rigueur is a well handicapped horse on soft ground. And Botti would know as has had plenty of good stayers with marks over 100 in recent years. I really like this horse: he settles, travels, has a serious turn of foot even over 12f and he stays alright. Don't worry about that. He is also tough as nails. He will put his head down and run though he does idle a bit in front. Look at the turn of foot he showed in two wins this year. Very impressive. I know he has won on faster ground but got hurt last year after beating Sun Central over 2 miles (very strong form) and needs rain nowadays. The forecast says rain for everyday from Monday through to Thursday. That on top of the current good ground and we should defo be on the soft side come Saturday. Perfect. He is a small horse who will be carrying over 9 stone but I would rather be on a small tough one with over 9st than a windy one with 8 stone. Besides, we all know about the condensing of the handicap in recent years and big weights are no longer the burden they once were. Aim to Prosper won this a few years ago off top weight despite never being able to cut it above handicap class. Even in last years race 4 of the 1st 8 home carried over 9 stone with 3 of them carrying over 9st 6. De Rigueur's form also stand the closest scrutiny e.g. the Sun Central form over 2m last year is very very good, his two wins this year including beating Pallasator fair and square and even last time out @ Chester, the two that beat him have since gained black type and Botti says he wasn't even at his best that day due to running in the Ebor (where he didn't let himself down) a week before. Yeah I really like this horse. A bit of luck with the draw and he will get the job done alright.

Suegioo & Swnymor are the main dangers for me.
By:
Madhu
When: 06 Oct 14 12:53
Looks like Saddler’s Rock will bee carrying top weight on 9st 10lb so weights possibly going up 6lb.
This is from Marco Botti’s site-
“The Cesarewitch has always been one of De Rigueur’s major targets. I have no concerns over the trip and on soft ground he is still a well handicapped horse, so he could have a good chance. The ground was too fast for him in the Ebor – he wouldn’t let himself down – and then we took a chance running him at Chester a week later [where he finished third] but I don’t think he was at his best that day. He is one of those horses who does not want too many races and needs to be kept fresh.”
Suegioo ran a good race at Doncaster last week and should also have a good chance. He gets the trip well and has run some good races at Newmarket in the past – he was unlucky in a valuable race there last year.”
By:
gamerawins
When: 06 Oct 14 17:24
Teak is a danger too as he will now definitely get a run.

Horse is on the up.
By:
deepingfox
When: 06 Oct 14 21:30
Love an AP bet on this race, but often hit the post, and not the back of the net.  Been with QUICK JACK from the weights onwards, and pleased to see he's in the 5-day decs.  Be interested who gets the ride, he is a finesse ride, creeps into his big-field races over hurdles and the flat, and is very very consistent, and could still have more to come.
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Oct 14 07:53
Are there any rock solid stats/trends for this race?
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Oct 14 08:03
PHILIP HOBBS is targeting a second victory in the Betfred Cesarewitch on Saturday with Big Easy.

Hobbs claimed the prize with Detroit City in 2006 and is hopeful of repeating the win with the Terry Warner-owned seven-year-old Big Easy.

RELATED LINKS
Cesarewitch betting
Big Easy is 12-1 (from 14) to improve on his second place in the Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket last month and Hobbs said: "He might have been slightly unlucky. They did not go that quick and when the pace did finally quicken he was caught a bit flat-footed.
"I have been particularly happy with his condition since then and logically you would expect him to improve for that run. Like [2006 winner] Detroit City, he's a very big horse and he's not had much racing on the Flat so he could well still be improving at the age of seven.

"A bad draw contributed to him running moderately in this race last year and a little while later he had a problem with a hock which caused him to miss most of the jumps season. I've had the race in mind ever since he was eliminated from the Ascot Stakes in June."
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Oct 14 08:04
I backed Big Easy yesterday at 16/1 (posted on flat turf thread)...so hope he is drawn in the bottom half this time.
By:
stevo1
When: 07 Oct 14 10:24
On both Bottis runners.
By:
betilyerded
When: 07 Oct 14 10:25
RP website and turftrax still saying good ground at Newmarket. Can this be right? Surely with all this rain around some of it must have it the place. Every other course in the country seems to have got it. Anyone here live near the place?
By:
betilyerded
When: 07 Oct 14 10:25
RP website and turftrax still saying good ground at Newmarket. Can this be right? Surely with all this rain around some of it must have it the place. Every other course in the country seems to have got it. Anyone here live near the place?
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