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johnners
29 Sep 14 21:50
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Oct 01
| Topic/replies: 32 | Blogger: johnners's blog
Cant believe there isn't a Ces thread already, so I'll kick it off. Decs tomorrow and the Harrow mob have promoted Pallasator to 8/1 fav. 38 on here suggests to me that he won't stand his ground#only saying.
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Report victor0151 September 30, 2014 12:02 PM BST
I am interested in Retirement Plan as he appears to be crying out for this trip and could be a Cup horse next season. Not a fan of young Master Doyle but am prepared to take a chance. Horse appears happy on any ground.
Report sintonian September 30, 2014 1:49 PM BST
Johnners, do you know what I can't believe....that you opened your account in 2001 and this is your first ever post!
Report sintonian September 30, 2014 1:50 PM BST
Oh look, and Victor opened his in 2002 and has just made his/her first ever post.

AMAZING.
Report johnners September 30, 2014 5:23 PM BST
Not correct Sintonian,have posted many times before although not recently. Software must be wrong. Cant believe that no site has got up to date betting after forfeit stage. Personally backed Quick Jack at 10/1 with the Harrow mob. Could do with a bit of rain in the next week and a half.
Report victor0151 September 30, 2014 8:45 PM BST
Correct Sintonian but better late than never. Just realised that her Ladyship hasn't trained a winner for about the same length of time. That could be a serious flaw in my Retirement Plan.
Report sintonian September 30, 2014 9:31 PM BST
I couldn't have Pallasator in a month of Sundays for this race. Happy for him to be favourite though!
Report Madhu October 1, 2014 1:10 AM BST
Been a while since I’ve posted and surprised how late thread for Cesarewitch is too. My last post on this race was when Never Can Tell, one of my 8 arrows struck and won from the front when drawn 36 on the wide outside. As regards Pallasator this was Sir Mark’s quote after last win at Newmarket-

“There was talk of his going to Australia at one stage but the second verse of the Irish national anthem found him out at The Curragh last time. He was bought to win the stayers’ race on Champions’ Day by the sponsors and hopefully he will – but he’s idiosyncratic to say the least.”

He went to over 100 on Betfair for around a tenner laid a few days before that win, so I guess he won’t be turning up. Although surprisingly Ladbrokes made him 8/1 fav a few days ago!
Quick Jack seems nicely weighted and consistent, and has won at Newmarket beating Nautilus who has since won 3 races and gone up 26lb since. Tony Martin won with Leg Spinner in 2007. He could hose up and be a good price at 10/1 if it is soft ground but last time out winners have a poor record.  It does look as though John Quinn has two backed in Swnymor and Moidore but it does seem a weak market this year.
I would think you are going to need to be in the mid 80’s to get in. I think it is a void bet if balloted out. There are usually around 34 runners. Betfair and some bookies have voided a number of horses before the decs are known to us tomorrow- later today- through the RP or SPLife- the 2 Brian Ellison horses, Stand to Reason and Spiritoftomintoul, while the others are to low down to get in.
My four arrows this year are De Rigueur, Hassle, Villa Royale and Big Orange all at nice odds and fingers crossed they all are drawn low. I had Mubaraza but got out and had Edge of Sanity but that looks a non-runner. Good luck everyone.
Report johnners October 1, 2014 6:56 AM BST
I have also had a miniscule bet on Gabrial's star at massive odds. Ran an eye catching race over mile six at weekend.
Report bluebirdfan October 1, 2014 12:50 PM BST
What do any of the flat guys make of Quick Jack? I fully expect him to win a big handicap hurdle this season but just wondered how his flat rating looks. I imagine he'd need a lot of rain as a NH horse??
Report metro john October 1, 2014 1:05 PM BST
Big Orange + Dashing Star winners for me.
Report BJG October 1, 2014 1:08 PM BST
Both NRs - ul
Report metro john October 1, 2014 1:23 PM BST
oh well Digeanta e/w it is thenCry
Report BJG October 1, 2014 1:52 PM BST
1    941505    Eye Of The Storm13      4    9-9    A P O´Brien        109    94    112
2    7/1-12    Flying Officer16    4    9-6    John Gosden        109    62    119
3    5-0060    Saddler´s Rock114      6    9-4    Jonjo O´Neill        104    92    122
4    155346    Brass Ring29      4    9-3    John Gosden        103    95    119
5    6-8055    Biographer29    5    9-2    David Lanigan        103    97    124
6    711245    El Salvador65    5    9-2    A P O´Brien        102    77    119
7    31293    Suegioo29    5    9-2    Marco Botti        102    92    119
8    971103    De Rigueur42    6    9-1    Marco Botti        101    98    119
9    320009    Repeater21    5    9-0    David O´Meara        96    82    120
10    60-928    Nearly Caught49    4    8-13    Hughie Morrison        99    108    121
11    70-229    Earth Amber63    5    8-12    Nicky Henderson        98    87    121
12    43-240    Mubaraza21    5    8-12    Ed Dunlop        96    113    122
13    059644    Statutory39      4    8-11    Saeed bin Suroor        96    86    119
14    3/6-15    Swnymor75    5    8-9    John Quinn        95    88    116
15    07608    Big Thunder29    4    8-8    Sir Mark Prescott Bt        93    81    119
16    241435    Noble Silk42    5    8-8    Lucy Wadham        94    108    121
17    1212-1    Quick Jack75    5    8-8    A J Martin        94    104    112
18    33411    Rhombus22 4x    4    8-8    Ismail Mohammed        102    101    123
19    433303    Communicator35    6    8-7    Andrew Balding        93    112    121
20    09623    Ray Ward21      4    8-7    David Simcock        93    99    120
21    114510    Villa Royale116    5    8-7    Michael Appleby        93    106    119
22    924018    Gabrial´s King21    5    8-6    David Simcock        91    98    120
23    311774    Maid In Rio37      3    8-5    Mark Johnston        102    81    117
24    46/371    Ted Spread140    7    8-5    Suzy Smith        91    102    121
25    255440    Debdebdeb30    4    8-4    Andrew Balding        89    104    120
26    1-3247    Sohar30      6    8-4    James Toller        90    103    121
27    20/0-0    Very Good Day29    7    8-4    Richard Fahey        90    72    94
28    426600    Egyptian Warrior24J    5    8-3    A P O´Brien        87    113    117
29    83972    Lady Kashaan23    5    8-2    Alan Swinbank        87    111    120
30    115515    Spice Fair39    7    8-2    Mark Usher        87    106    117
31    064200    Be Perfect22      5    8-1    David Nicholls        84    105    117
32    0/80-2    Big Easy21    7    8-1    Philip Hobbs        90    78    124
33    3-3817    Digeanta28    7    8-1    W P Mullins        86    105    114
34    009153    Moidore22    5    8-0    John Quinn        86    106    120
35    410844    Gabrial´s Star14    5    7-13    Richard Fahey        83    100    121
36    15-200    Sula Two14    7    7-13    Jo Hughes        83    90    117
37    285352    Groovejet30    3    7-12    Peter Chapple-Hyam        101    109    119
38    10/751    Hidden Universe74    8    7-12    D K Weld        84    73    112
39    188130    Mr Burbidge176    6    7-12    Neil Mulholland        84    97    118
40    205235    Sir Frank Morgan21    4    7-11    Mark Johnston        81    98    117
41    50-308    Albert Bridge42    6    7-10    Ralph Beckett        82    95    117
42    1-256P    Dark Ranger112      8    7-10    Tim Pitt        82    50    112
43    760532    Modernism11      5    7-10    David Simcock        79    90    122
44    00084    Waterclock18    5    7-10    Jedd O´Keeffe        80    84    111
45    685774    Argent Knight21    4    7-9    William Jarvis        80    98    121
46    051671    Laughing Jack45    6    7-9    George Baker        81    103    113
47    12841-    Royal Signaller392    4    7-9    Simon Earle        81    —    —
48    11/145    Solar View73    5    7-8    Sir Mark Prescott Bt        80    89    113
49    51161    Vent De Force49    3    7-8    Hughie Morrison        92    108    113
50    213911    Teak20J 4x      7    7-8    Ian Williams        90    92    116
51    157982    Jonny Delta22    7    7-7    Jim Goldie        81    103    115
52    413329    Longshadow22    4    7-6    Jason Ward        77    101    111
53    4143-1    Rutherglen211J    4    7-6    John Quinn        78    82    110
54    49-567    First Avenue112    9    7-5    Laura Mongan        77    95    118
55    371203    Knightly Escapade34    6    7-5    Brian Ellison        76    103    112
56    212138    Maoi Chinn Tire22    7    7-5    Jennie Candlish        76    88    110
57    115074    Special Fighter27    3    7-5    Mark Johnston        84    98    107
58    68/127    Bob´s World149    5    7-4    Jennie Candlish        76    100    112
59    452937    Ex Oriente21    5    7-4    Stuart Williams        78    104    112
60    412721    See And Be Seen21 4x     4    7-3    Sylvester Kirk        83    73    113
61    67-121    Clondaw Warrior33    7    7-2    W P Mullins        87    81    107
62    4-8105    Caledonia18    7    7-0    Jim Goldie        71    84    106
63    344447    Aleksandar13    5    6-13    Jim Goldie        69    71    103
64    0-7062    Ermyn Lodge18    8    6-4    Pat Phelan        64    —    92
Report betilyerded October 1, 2014 8:05 PM BST
At this stage both Swynymor (been nicely backed of late and confirmed by Quinn in todays R&Fo as his target) and Dashing Star (who keeps running well in all the right races and is screaming for a step up in trip) appeal. I do, however, think that 33-1 Communicator, granted a bit of dig, is overpriced at 33-1 given his staying on 5th in last years November Handicap and his run - off the same mark - in the chester cup, particularly when the 1st & 2nd went on to fill the same places in the Northumberland Plate. My other pick at a big price is Jonnie Delta who should have finished closer than 7th in last years race, under a weak Jack Garrity ride ( I tipped him up to my mate who texted after the race "who was the bird riding Jonnie Delta"?). Won nicely first time up this year and looks like he's been laid out for this again. 50-1 is a good e/w price for me and should just sneak again at the bottom.
Report Madhu October 2, 2014 1:47 AM BST
Just added another arrow in Brass Ring as looked at form with Estimate and run after pulling hard at Ascot looks good.
Report slowerthanjohn October 2, 2014 1:59 PM BST
This a race I have a terrible record inCry but doesn't stop me getting dragged in every year! Popsi's Joy and Detroit City the only two I can remember backingCrazy I'm doing a rain dance for Quick Jack backed him at Galway and he is a real job horse.
Report Madhu October 3, 2014 1:19 AM BST
Just backed Mubaraza in again at good odds, so one more arrow!
Report betilyerded October 3, 2014 9:34 AM BST
Im sure I read somewhere that Big Orange wasnt going in preference of another engagement. This weekend maybe?
Seems to be a bit of rain around next week which would increase confidence in Communicator
Report sintonian October 3, 2014 11:38 AM BST
He runs today.
Report slowerthanjohn October 3, 2014 11:57 AM BST
Big Orange isn't even entered in the Ces or Dashing Star.
Report bazzar October 3, 2014 5:09 PM BST
Big Orange was entered but withdrawn yesterday, ran for
£21000 instead of going for £155000, don't understand
some of these trainers thinking, wants to race in group
long distance cup races next season, but nothing wrong with picking
up a valuable handicap along the way.
Today he gave weight in a listed race, could have received weight in
Cesarewitch!!!!
Report betilyerded October 3, 2014 5:58 PM BST
Dashing Star was in but has obviously been withdrawn after his run last weekend. Thats one off the list anyway1
Report slowerthanjohn October 3, 2014 6:56 PM BST
Both were entered but neither are anymore which is what I'm sayingWink
Report mac99 October 6, 2014 7:31 AM BST
Biographer looks the right type for this race , down to a mark of 102 from a  high of 109  and relatively lightly raced he has good e/w credentials , he ran on really well to take fifth place in the Doncaster Cup  behind Estimate , he is probably never going to win  one of the  Cup races now , but is right on the cusp of that quality .  He goes well on  on g/s ground  but handles g/f  if it comes to that ,which is unlikely , his main attribute is his staying ability , this will always have been a target for him  and all being well  should run very well in this hoary old marathon of a race .GL
Report Facts October 6, 2014 7:37 AM BST
Quick Jack for me. A really talented and versatile horse. Not a bad trainer either !
Report knot in wood October 6, 2014 8:13 AM BST
unless connections have a change of mind, biographer will not run mac99.
Report mac99 October 6, 2014 9:03 AM BST
Yes, looks like he is out , perhaps the Horse has a problem because it looked like a great opportunity , thx.
Report knot in wood October 6, 2014 9:19 AM BST
runs the week after ascot
Report metro john October 6, 2014 9:33 AM BST
Digeanta, looks a solid e/w option.
Report gamerawins October 6, 2014 1:09 PM BST
De Rigueur standing out a mile for me @ 20's. Stable mate Suegioo now into 12's & 14's but is Botti second string if you look at blog entry on Botti's website from September 21st where he says De Rigueur is a well handicapped horse on soft ground. And Botti would know as has had plenty of good stayers with marks over 100 in recent years. I really like this horse: he settles, travels, has a serious turn of foot even over 12f and he stays alright. Don't worry about that. He is also tough as nails. He will put his head down and run though he does idle a bit in front. Look at the turn of foot he showed in two wins this year. Very impressive. I know he has won on faster ground but got hurt last year after beating Sun Central over 2 miles (very strong form) and needs rain nowadays. The forecast says rain for everyday from Monday through to Thursday. That on top of the current good ground and we should defo be on the soft side come Saturday. Perfect. He is a small horse who will be carrying over 9 stone but I would rather be on a small tough one with over 9st than a windy one with 8 stone. Besides, we all know about the condensing of the handicap in recent years and big weights are no longer the burden they once were. Aim to Prosper won this a few years ago off top weight despite never being able to cut it above handicap class. Even in last years race 4 of the 1st 8 home carried over 9 stone with 3 of them carrying over 9st 6. De Rigueur's form also stand the closest scrutiny e.g. the Sun Central form over 2m last year is very very good, his two wins this year including beating Pallasator fair and square and even last time out @ Chester, the two that beat him have since gained black type and Botti says he wasn't even at his best that day due to running in the Ebor (where he didn't let himself down) a week before. Yeah I really like this horse. A bit of luck with the draw and he will get the job done alright.

Suegioo & Swnymor are the main dangers for me.
Report Madhu October 6, 2014 1:53 PM BST
Looks like Saddler’s Rock will bee carrying top weight on 9st 10lb so weights possibly going up 6lb.
This is from Marco Botti’s site-
“The Cesarewitch has always been one of De Rigueur’s major targets. I have no concerns over the trip and on soft ground he is still a well handicapped horse, so he could have a good chance. The ground was too fast for him in the Ebor – he wouldn’t let himself down – and then we took a chance running him at Chester a week later [where he finished third] but I don’t think he was at his best that day. He is one of those horses who does not want too many races and needs to be kept fresh.”
Suegioo ran a good race at Doncaster last week and should also have a good chance. He gets the trip well and has run some good races at Newmarket in the past – he was unlucky in a valuable race there last year.”
Report gamerawins October 6, 2014 6:24 PM BST
Teak is a danger too as he will now definitely get a run.

Horse is on the up.
Report deepingfox October 6, 2014 10:30 PM BST
Love an AP bet on this race, but often hit the post, and not the back of the net.  Been with QUICK JACK from the weights onwards, and pleased to see he's in the 5-day decs.  Be interested who gets the ride, he is a finesse ride, creeps into his big-field races over hurdles and the flat, and is very very consistent, and could still have more to come.
Report sintonian October 7, 2014 8:53 AM BST
Are there any rock solid stats/trends for this race?
Report sintonian October 7, 2014 9:03 AM BST
PHILIP HOBBS is targeting a second victory in the Betfred Cesarewitch on Saturday with Big Easy.

Hobbs claimed the prize with Detroit City in 2006 and is hopeful of repeating the win with the Terry Warner-owned seven-year-old Big Easy.

RELATED LINKS
Cesarewitch betting
Big Easy is 12-1 (from 14) to improve on his second place in the Cesarewitch Trial at Newmarket last month and Hobbs said: "He might have been slightly unlucky. They did not go that quick and when the pace did finally quicken he was caught a bit flat-footed.
"I have been particularly happy with his condition since then and logically you would expect him to improve for that run. Like [2006 winner] Detroit City, he's a very big horse and he's not had much racing on the Flat so he could well still be improving at the age of seven.

"A bad draw contributed to him running moderately in this race last year and a little while later he had a problem with a hock which caused him to miss most of the jumps season. I've had the race in mind ever since he was eliminated from the Ascot Stakes in June."
Report sintonian October 7, 2014 9:04 AM BST
I backed Big Easy yesterday at 16/1 (posted on flat turf thread)...so hope he is drawn in the bottom half this time.
Report stevo1 October 7, 2014 11:24 AM BST
On both Bottis runners.
Report betilyerded October 7, 2014 11:25 AM BST
RP website and turftrax still saying good ground at Newmarket. Can this be right? Surely with all this rain around some of it must have it the place. Every other course in the country seems to have got it. Anyone here live near the place?
Report betilyerded October 7, 2014 11:25 AM BST
RP website and turftrax still saying good ground at Newmarket. Can this be right? Surely with all this rain around some of it must have it the place. Every other course in the country seems to have got it. Anyone here live near the place?
Report Madhu October 7, 2014 2:13 PM BST
The Report Date is Monday 6th October; 11:00 so should be updated.

This is from RacingFM-

Tony Martin believes Betfred Cesarewitch favourite Quick Jack is as good as any of his other previous placed performers in the famous Newmarket handicap.

The Irish trainer, who is always respected by the bookmakers, supplied 2007 winner Leg Spinner, and Quick Jack is at the head of the market this weekend after scoring over two miles at the Galway Festival.

The chesnut has also victories at the July course and in a hurdle at the Cheltenham Paddy Power meeting to his credit.

"Leg Spinner won in 2007 then Arc Bleu was second, he was very unlucky and was very free, and Barba Papa was also third. I'd put this horse on a par with them," Martin told RacingFM Live.

"Whether he's good enough to be first, second, third or unplaced on Saturday is another way, but he'd definitely be in the same league as those three.

"I see no reason he won't get the two and a quarter miles at Newmarket and hopefully the jockey will be riding him accordingly.

"He'll track them and have a shot from the furlong pole. Fran Berry has ridden him, he'd be our first choice, and Richard Hughes has ridden him to win at Newmarket. If Fran can't ride, (Hughes) would be keen enough to ride him."
Report betilyerded October 7, 2014 2:50 PM BST
Yeah I see that but surely they update it daily? Or not? Does the RP website take its going description from the latest turftrax or does the c.o.c update them? Given its a major factor in most bettors selection process it would help to know what current conditions are, given the majority of courses update very frequently when theres a major handicap on the horizon.

Quick jack is a very short price despite his obvious appeal. Bound to be a bigger price on the day, particularly if he gets whats perceived to be a poor draw.
Report Madhu October 7, 2014 3:54 PM BST
I’ve been looking at weather forecasts for Newmarket for some time. Yesterday   on the Met Office observation maps the ‘area’ had bucket loads and they are forecasting possibly 3 hours of heavy ran between 11 and 1pm, however, Thursday is sunny with scattered showers. I can’t wait to see De Rigueur on soft ground and think Villa Royale may improve for it given the dam Villa Carlotta won 4 races including 2 listed races with give in the ground. Not sure my other two- Brass Ring or Mubaraza will want it too soft though.
Cesarewitch handicap trends from 2013-
Draw
Horses drawn 1 to 12: 7-13-120
Horses drawn 13 to 24: 2-11-120
Horses drawn 25 or higher: 1-6-91
http://www.uk-bettinginfo.co.uk/horse-racing-lays-backs/1228-cesarewitch-handicap-trends-2013-a.html

Frankie Detorri’s front running ride on Never Can Tell from stall 36 and coming down the middle of the track was unbelieveable. So it can bee done but obviously a low draw is much better.
Report Madhu October 7, 2014 3:55 PM BST
forecasting possibly 3 hours of heavy ran between 11 and 1pm tomorrow
Report Madhu October 7, 2014 5:21 PM BST
Latest TurfTrax

Report Date     Tuesday 7th October; 17:00
Going     Good

4mm of rain in the last 24 hours.
Report FELTFAIR October 7, 2014 6:33 PM BST
Graham Lee booked for Saddlers Rock so presuming no rise in weights.
Report unclepuncle October 7, 2014 7:04 PM BST
Communicator @ 33/1 for me.
Report Facts October 7, 2014 7:29 PM BST
I could see there being a huge gamble on Quick Jack.
Report betilyerded October 7, 2014 8:57 PM BST
The Graham Lee booking caught my eye initially given the last time he rode  a winner for Jonjo was Tominator in the newcastle plate under top weight! However he had just run well in the chester cup whereas Saddlers Rock hasnt run well for a while and has only just joined Jonjo so pressumably its a pipeopener for a spell over hurdles. He's probably also there for the favourite in the valuable 12f handicap before the ces so will pass that one over.

Im with you Unc. Think Communicator will improve for a run in a race like this and interesting Oisin Murphy is booked when they always have a stable full of decent apprentices they could have claimed with. A bit of ease would suit nicely.
Report mac99 October 7, 2014 9:04 PM BST
Teak was withdrawn from the Cesarewitch trial won by see and be seen  when the ground came up soft ,  he had  romped clear of  See and be seen at  Bath the time before on g/f  and was value for another two or three lengths imo , no Jockey yet booked , hope they use a good claimer  and of course  soft ground is not up his street , leave it to   Big easy  in that event,  looks very hard to keep out of places  with ease in the ground , quick jack is a bit of an enigma , looks to have a non staying pedigree but so did Leg Spinner !.
Report dunlaying October 7, 2014 10:28 PM BST
I have backed Saddlers Rock. Six weeks with Jonjo,Graham Lee to do the steering and he will go on the ground. In the Gold Cup he was eased down when beaten and this is 18f. His form at Ascot last October would give him a chance and on some of his form he is very well treated. True he has to carry a lump but he is a top stayer on his day.
Report gamerawins October 7, 2014 10:56 PM BST
TEAK: would have a chance but won't get his ground. As he is so much on the up and thriving though, he might go on any ground, but soft is definitely a doubt.

SADDLERS ROCK: is obviously very classy and Lee being up is eye catching, but doesn't compare at all to Tominator winning the Plate under Lee as at that time last summer John Joe was in incredible form and everything he sent out was winning. I'm not saying JJ isn't in form now, but right back then he could of sent a cat out to win the Derby. I remember a summer B handicap chase at the time where he had 3 in it. I backed a yoke of Bowens at 20/1, he led over the last but got nabbed by one of JJ's whose 3 all finished in the 1st 4. Also, as you said, Tominator was a very consistent in-form animal whereas Saddlers Rock is badly out of form and on a losing run of 14. And besides, even at his best he looked a bit of a dog.

COMMUNICATOR: Has the ability to win this but never looked the most resolute to me as evidenced by a strike rate of 2 from 29 and 1 from his last 26. You generally need a tough boyo to win this, one that will think about nothing else in the last furlong but winning the scrap to get in front. I would have my doubts about this boy in the heat of battle.

DE RIGUEUR, on the other hand has a strike rate of 11 from 25 and is a lot more reliable and tough in addition to having superior form.

QUICK JACK: Has an obvious chance and obviously laid out for this. Not sure how well handicapped he is though, getting only 7ib from the likes of De Rigueur. I think he will stay alright. The sire, Footstepsinthesand, has got some stayers and was very stoutly bred himself by Giants Causeway (a big stamina influence as all Eclipse winners BC Classic horses prove to be) out of a stoutly bred mare. FSITS might of been a miler himself but the stamina is there in the blood. Quick Jack's dam is by Polar Falcon who sired a lot of tough sorts who stayed farther than expected and QJ'c grand dam is by huge stamina influence Ela Mana Mou. I think he will stay alright. I would be more worried about Hughes riding him. If he is not on the bit 2 out Hughes will give up and if you are on eway then don't expect Richie to ride him out for the place. 6's is a ridic price. Certainly one of the very likely winners but would want to be getting 14's and that won't happen.

Some others towards the top of the market:

RAY WARD & MOIDORE: Both are no good and have no chance. They are also by Galileo and have given up trying hard enough to win a Ces. Both are 40/1 shots.

BIG EASY: Has a squeak but hasn't won on the flat for over 3 and a half years. He was drawn badly last year but was still hammered and under pressure 5 out at a time when the stable was firing. He was also well beaten in the Ascot Stakes last year and his only flat run of note in the last 3 years was last time out but that was a weak race. He also doesn't compare to Detroit City as Hobbs suggested as that one was a lightly raced 4 y old on a winning run, including two Grade 1's in his previous two runs over hurdles. They have nothing in common except owner & trainer and being big horses. Grasping at straws there Mr Hobbs! Wouldn't be enough to sway me anyway @ 12's. ridic price.

SWNYMOR: Definitely has a chance and obviously laid out for this by a good yard recently in the winners. The way he won @ Chester left a lasting memory and he got no run at Galway the last day behind Quick Jack. Would be afraid of this fellow who could have just improved a lot since joining Quinn. Again though he only gets 6ib off De Rigueur and that one is more solid and has much better form.

SUEGIOO: Is solid and definitely has a chance. I could see him running into a place without winning it. If he is drawn well and it's not a total bog, then 4/1 on the place market would be fair enough.

Of those at bigger odds:

EARTH AMBER: I steamed into this one last year at big prices. Dunno. She could win it but I wouldn't trust her and Henderson, though obviously dangerous, wasn't in the same form last year as previously and doesn't seem to have regained top top form. It was right at this time last year he lost that lightning hot form of the previous few years. 

GROOVEJET: This one could win it. Chapple Hyam showing up as coming into a bit of form recently and we all know how dangerous he can be. This filly might not look on breeding to be an obvious stayer, but there is stamina in her blood and she does shape like a stayer. Her last two runs showed very good form and with the weight allowance she could spring a shock. She lacks experience, but ran well in a big field the last day after getting caught wide. I think she has loads of ability but might be a bit lazy as opposed to nervy. Hard to explain, but even though she is tempermental, I don't think this type of race & 36 runners will faze her tbh.  I see Norton is booked. Watch the market for this one and I wouldn't be surprised if Peter threw a 1st time tongue strap or some head gear on her.

MAID IN RIO: Has it to do and isn't bred for it but has the weight allowance and is trained by Johnston and has good form from the summer. You never know.

Overall DE RIGUEUR ticks most box's for me.
Report bazzar October 8, 2014 11:02 AM BST
You mentioned many horses, yet failed to mention the probable winner!!!!!
Report betilyerded October 8, 2014 11:34 AM BST
I take your point about Communicators strike rate but it doesnt pay to be too dogmatic in a race like the ces. The winners have been a right mixed bag from relatively lightly raced sorts to the likes of caraciola who hadnt won for years but more importantly had form in one of the big staying handicaps - chester cup/pitmans derby/ascot stakes /ces in the past.
The stable managed to win a nice pot with Intransigent who was 2 from 20 on turf before saturday so all is not lost.I'll be going in e/w anyway and to me is the sort who will run on late for at least a place. The trip should suit - he was staying on late behind Joshs Hill over 2m in soft ground at Newbury in his only run over over hurdles and in the chester cup so I'll go with him though Id like to see a bit of rain fall today as its forecast and there isnt much more before saturday.
Report IrisDeBalme October 8, 2014 11:59 AM BST
agree with Communicator ... backed him at 33s... has run some really good races recently.. He looked like the winner last time out (a furlong out)...

was in the notebook then...

be surprised if it doesnt place tbh
Report Facts October 8, 2014 12:22 PM BST
bazzar     08 Oct 14 11:02 
You mentioned many horses, yet failed to mention the probable winner!!!!!



Imo he did ! Happy
Report bazzar October 8, 2014 12:45 PM BST
Not a FACT!!!!!!
Report gamerawins October 8, 2014 4:17 PM BST
@ Bazzar: How obvious is it from my posts in this thread who I think is the horse to be on? I mean, really.

@ Betilyerded : I see your point about the varying types that can win this race e.g Caracciola (who incidentally had won on the flat the previous season.) You are correct it doesn't pay to be too dogmatic in this race. Definitely true.
I wouldn't compare Communicator to Intransigent. Reasons: Balding is great at gradually improving horses. There is a long list of his horses the last few years that have gone from marks in the 80's and improved gradually between ages 4 & 6 to go from marks in the 80's to being 110+ horses e.g. Intransigent, Highland Colori, Highland Knight, Tulius, Whiplash Willie, Rawaki, Passing Glance, Side Glance. He does a great job with them and they improve gradually if you study their profiles. Communicator doesn't look like one of these. His best form was in 2012 as a 4 year old, that's when he looked like he was going to kick on, but he hasn't and hasn't progressed at all in 2013 & 2014 (even with the yard in v good form) and hasn't won in his last 14 tries whereas Intransigent had won 2 runs before from a subsequent Group winner and looked to be still progressing. Communicator is also now 6 and his mark has gone nowhere since his 3 year old days. If Balding hasn't got it out of him by now I don't see it happening. He isn't trying his hardest and to me seems more likely to chuck it in a race like this than to put his head down. Carraciola was, as you said, a proven battler in tough races. Communicator has proven he has the ability but doesn't go through with it.

Just my 2 cent.

gl
Report gamerawins October 8, 2014 4:22 PM BST
And where is this rain????

Raining everywhere but @ HQ it seems.

Often the case that that place just seems to miraculously escape any rain.
Report betilyerded October 8, 2014 4:37 PM BST
All good points gamera. Guess im just pinning my hopes on the uniqueness of the race and the extra distance helping him - as it did in the chester cup - Balding being a target trainer (and he flagged this up as a target at the start of the season) and blind faith! I agree with you on De Riguer as he is still potentially very well handicapped. Hoping he bombs and then look out for him in next years chester cup Grin
Report Facts October 8, 2014 5:45 PM BST
deepingfox     06 Oct 14 22:30 
Love an AP bet on this race, but often hit the post, and not the back of the net.  Been with QUICK JACK from the weights onwards, and pleased to see he's in the 5-day decs.  Be interested who gets the ride, he is a finesse ride, creeps into his big-field races over hurdles and the flat, and is very very consistent, and could still have more to come.



Richard Hughes booked. I know some  won't like it, but it's another positive tick for this horses chances. The more rain the better as well.
Report sintonian October 8, 2014 9:09 PM BST
Big Easy may have run in a weak race last time but he is officially 3lb well in as he races off 87 not his new rating of 90. I agree the comparisons with Detroit City are a little hard to work as DC was a potential top-notcher over hurdles before he won this. However, BE has had a prep run coming into the race this year, something he did not have last year, and the prize money for this years race is £150k to the winner, or thereabouts, something which Phillip Hobbs has alluded too. Big Easy is a decent staying handicapper over jumps with a rating of 136, but that is all he'll be. Back on the flat with very few runs under his belt he cold be a bit better than 87. It's clear Hobbsy has targetted this race from some way out.
Report gamerawins October 8, 2014 9:25 PM BST
Still good ground.

Where the hell is this rain?
Report mac99 October 8, 2014 9:32 PM BST
Good ground , good , soft ground bookie ground Cool
Report Madhu October 8, 2014 10:58 PM BST
I think I have become addicted to the Met Office UK observation map over Newmarket!

TurfTrax Report Date     Wednesday 8th October; 16:30
Going     Good
GoingStick     7.2, on Wednesday at 12:00

On the RP site

Newmarket going

Clerk of the course Michael Prosser said of the ground for Saturday's Betfred Cesarewitch meeting: "I walked the course late morning and was very pleased, it's good ground, almost a perfect racing surface."

Difficult to compare Quick Jack with Tony Martin’s other previous placed performers in the Cesarewitch but my ante-post position is based on such comparisons. Arc Bleu was a much better horse on the flat and had already won the Northumberland Plate off 85, Barba Papa had won the Ascot Stakes off 82 and was placed in the Grade 2 Galway Hurdle prior to his placed effort as a 7yo, while, Leg Spinner had previously won the Shergar Cup Stayers Handicap off 86 beating Caracciola (87) - there was 3/4L between the two in the 2007 Cesarewitch off levels (92).
Coincidently Philip Hobbs Fair Along was just behind off 88 and was 2nd in the Arkle that year. Also, Philip Hobbs Detroit City was a Triumph Hurdle winner (beat Fair Along) - does that make Big Easy off 87 and a Class 2 hurdler off 135 a good call?

I don’t fancy John Quinn’s fancied pair either. Quick Jack’s form ties in with the chances of John Quinn’s Swynymor who is rated 129 over hurdles. In comparison, Quinn’s Countrywide Flame was a Triumph Hurdle winner and ironically won on the Flat at Chester in the same race at Chester on the Flat that was landed 12 months earlier by Never Can Tell before her success in the Cesarewitch. However, carrying a 4lb penalty off 88 (and drawn low) told in the last 100 yds when 7/1 fav. Stablemate Moidore (OR 86) hasn’t won over hurdles (OR 117) and even with Joe Doyle’s claim I can’t see him improving much on his 2013 Plate form.

I don’t rate the slow run Cesarewitch Trial Stakes (Handicap) form of See And Be Seen, Ray Ward, Argent Knight and Sir Frank Morgan, and Teak’s form ties in with the former two but his last wins have been in small fields and the 7yo has never won a race or been in the first three with more than 12 runners.

It’s a question class off 98 for Rhombus as he’s only won two Class 3- 5 runner handicaps this year and was a beaten fav in 2013 November handicap.

The recent form of top-weight Saddler´s Rock is dismal. He hasn’t won for 2 years and has been beaten best part of 60 lengths in four races this year while with John Oxx. I can’t see Jonjo replicating what he did with Tominator – placed behind Aaim To Prosper and Countrywide Flame in 2012, as he had good form with Reg Hollinshead prior to his first run for Jonjo in the Cesarewich that year.

Communicator
looks exposed and hasn’t won for 2 years. Neither has Mubaraza but Mubaraza’s form with Tiger Cliff, Tominator, and Angel Gabrial has class, he’s won at the course twice and over 2 miles, and George Baker is a good booking after a ‘pipe opener’ in the trial race.

Brass Ring was highly rated at the start of the season and has been highly tried since but on Ascot form will have no problem with the distance and could come good in a strongly run race.

Early season form lines with Entihaa give Villa Royale just as good a chance as Nearly Caught (not disgraced when finishing eighth in the Ebor and now the mount of Ryan Moore).The mare won first time out and showed improved form for Michael Appleby on the AW and then won well at the Dante meeting over 2m½f off 88 carrying 9-10. Although not seen since her run in the Ascot Stakes handicap, Appleby’s older horses are in good form (7-41 since September) and the successes of fillies Scatter Dice and Never Can Tell and the mare Miss Fara reinforce the notion that progressive Villa Royale has a good each-way chance.

De Rigueur is unexposed at the trip, consistent, settles well, has a great turn of foot and along with Andrea Atzeni knows where the winning post is.  His form with Tiger Cliff, Sun Central, Pallasator, Big Orange and Whiplash Willie is strong.

I just hope they are all declared to run and are drawn in the lower third.
Good luck everyone
Report gamerawins October 9, 2014 12:01 AM BST
@ Madhu: Re: Swnymor: I would agree that he doesn't have the same profile as Countrywide Flame, but I think you are overlooking the fact that he could have improved significantly since joining John Quinn, who has improved a lot of horses over the years. He really looked like a new horse @ Chester in his first run for Quinn. He is also a typically big Dylan Thomas that needed time to fill into his frame and keeps improving, similarly to Captain Cat, Pethers Moon, Blazing Speed. As a raw 3 year old he had solid form in the high 80's for William Haggas and Haggas is always easy on big raw types early in their careers (he didn't run @ 2 and was very green in first run in May of 3 year old year.) At the end of his 3 year old year he went to Tim Vaughan who is not a top trainer and the horse never really took to hurdles, running in the Triumph when he really wasn't mature enough and was a poor jumper in what was just his 11th career race in total. A lot of people think that just because a flat horse is big that they are ready for hurdles. This fellow, like many others, just wasn't ready mentally. After 4 runs for Vaughan he then went to Rebecca Curtis who was badly out of form for most of last NH season so most of his runs for her can also be overlooked. Now he is with Quinn and based on the Chester run he might just have finally got the message and matured mentally and physically as he is now a 5 year old. Countrywide Flame was a different type of horse altogether. He was by Haafhd and they improve in a different way to Dylan Thomas horses. CF was a lot smaller and ran 9 times as a 2 year old for Kevin Ryan. Quinn got him as a 3 year old with a flat rating of just 72 and he started improving dramatically as soon as John got him. He was already toughened and mature for a 3 year old after 13 races for Ryan (9 as a 2 year old) and was mentally ready for hurdling, loved it and started thriving and of course went on to win the Triumph in what was his 23rd race (contrast this to Swnymor for who the Triumph was only his 11th race). Then he came back to the flat with a lovely mark and nearly added a Ces in what was his 26th race. They are just different types with different backgrounds and different types improve in different ways and at different rates depending on many factors like breeding & trainers etc etc. Spotting them when they are ready to start improving is the key ;)

I dunno, his mark is still high enough for what he has achieved and De Rigueur is just a much more solid proposition, but Swnymor has loads of ability and could just be a new horse now for John Quinn. I would certainly be afraid of him.
Report betilyerded October 9, 2014 9:30 AM BST
Strangely enough, Swnymor was the first horse I fancied for the race but the 25-1 disappeared one day (think someone in the press tipped him) so decided to look elsewhere. On last seasons November handicap running he has a bit to find with Communicator (gave Swnymor a 5l beating giving 5lb - now receives 2lb) on ground which should have suited Swnymor AND Communicator was having his first run for 84 days. I take your point that he has looked an improved horse since joining Quinn though his Chester victory was in a very slow time (albeit highly impressive visually) and his effort at galway may be flattering given how 5 of the 1st 6 came from way behind off a fast pace.
I notice the tongue was dispensed with so maybe had a quick job on his breathing?

Good luck anyway - hope you got a decent price!
Report betilyerded October 9, 2014 9:32 AM BST
Ooops - that should be tongue TIE. Bit cruel to whip who whole thing out, though sometimes when my wife starts....
Report mac99 October 9, 2014 10:01 AM BST
Want to put in a word for Noble silk ridden by Frankie , he has progressed over three seasons and now races of 95. His win at Haydock in May when eased down in the final furlong  reads well , like Teak he an very enthusiastic Horse  who has been around the block  a few times yet is still  improving, Frankie may not have some of the  zip in a finnish as he used to have,  but  is one of the worlds greatest riders over a distance of ground. gl
Report sintonian October 9, 2014 8:38 PM BST
Stall 2 for Big Easy. Stark contrast to 36 last season. No excuses now.Cool
Report gamerawins October 9, 2014 9:40 PM BST
Yes! I was thinking the exact same thing about Swnymor i.e. that maybe he had a wind op. He also used to hold the head a bit before, like gasping for air. Hard to know but it wouldn't surprise me.
Report Facts October 10, 2014 4:49 PM BST
Final analysis of this race for me :-

Quick Jack
Big Easy
Report dunlaying October 10, 2014 5:04 PM BST
In my portfolio I have Saddlers Rock,Groovejet and Ted Spread.
Report betilyerded October 10, 2014 5:19 PM BST
I dont have a portfolio - just a couple of e/w betsExcited
Communicator and big bad Jonny Delta.
Report FELTFAIR October 10, 2014 6:32 PM BST
Like all the big end of season handicaps they come with a health warning but we have to try.

The clock says the following and in no particular order other than racecard order,Brass Ring,Quick Jack,Sohar,Moidore,Groove Jet and Jonny Delta.

Think Brass Ring will struggle with a welter burden on rain softened ground.

Will back Quick Jack e-w but not for a lot. Those behind him at Galway are getting lumps of weight and could easily reverse the form.

Sohar, my particular fancy ante-post and took the £42 available at 35 speculating a decent draw before it was announced. Sods law it gets drawn 36 of 36. Immediately traded my position at 29 so have a free £42 bet at 6/1 but am not holding my breath.

Moidore has a good draw and a feather weight. Not sure about the Ayr form but that generated the good clock performance but will have a small e-w.

Groove Jet already backed ante-post at 34. My old mate Chapple-Hyam trains and couldn`t leave out. Will have some place money on as well.

Jonny Delta from same race as Moidore. Have a doubt about the ground suiting and will give him a miss.

So four against the field and happy to lose but hopefully not to Brass Ring or Jonny Delta.
Report the bloob October 10, 2014 7:03 PM BST
Communicator and Groovejet for me, both drawn well. I especially like Groovejet at 28/1
Report mac99 October 11, 2014 10:50 AM BST
I am going with Noble silk drawn twenty which is not ideal but  but i believe he may be able to run to a mark of  100 or so over eighteen furlongs and that may see him home ....my saver  is no longer Teak who is drawn wide and has no apprentice allowance  but Moirde  , Doyle takes five off and Trainer  J Quin targets big handicaps  like this and often  wins them , the Horse also has  a great draw , so  what is not to like . GL today
Report sintonian October 11, 2014 12:39 PM BST
Sticking with Big Easy, looks wide open as usual! gl all.
Report bazzar October 11, 2014 3:54 PM BST
The lucky number is 31.
Report sintonian October 11, 2014 4:01 PM BST
Get the frick in!!!!!!!!! ExcitedExcited
Report mac99 October 11, 2014 4:04 PM BST
well done Sint , facts and others , great shout .
Report Facts October 11, 2014 4:42 PM BST
Wd sin Happy
Report FELTFAIR October 11, 2014 6:38 PM BST
Got it completely wrong re the going, fully expecting rain softened ground but c`est la vie.
Report sintonian October 11, 2014 6:53 PM BST
And you facts.
Report FELTFAIR October 11, 2014 6:57 PM BST
Pleased for the often criticised Tom Queally. He`ll always do for me and I`m sure he`ll be associated with a really top  horse at some point.
Report Facts October 11, 2014 7:22 PM BST
You mean a horse like Frankel Crazy
Report slowerthanjohn October 12, 2014 3:37 PM BST
Well done to all the winners, was counting my chickens when Quick Jack was travelling wellCrazy
Report Facts October 12, 2014 8:40 PM BST
Yep I thought it was just a matter of how far, especially with commentator stating that Hughes had taken a pull inside the 2 furlong mark.
Report Steamship October 12, 2014 9:07 PM BST
Well done winners I was on De Rigueur.
Report sintonian October 13, 2014 7:36 AM BST
Simon Holt is not the commentator he used to be. He took an age to spot Big Easy bursting through. He seems to scream a lot these days too.
Report Millerracing67 October 13, 2014 2:37 PM BST
Bet you were screaming as well sint Silly
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