Horse Antepost
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St.Leger Stakes 2014
The oldest classic, for 3yo colts and fillies, run at Doncaster and a severe test of both speed and stamina for these young horses. Fortunately this race has long established trends and breeding requirements which help the selection process. Key long established trial races, the race record and stamina index of sires,speed ratings and dosage indexes are all useful ways to focus the laser. I shall just work through the data much of which is expressed in the spreadsheet.
Comments on the Approach
As ever, I am deploying the 'on balance of probability' and 'eliminate the unlikely' methods that have served us well in the past combined with fine judgement of the 'significance' of various pieces of information. However, we must remember that any decision taken could quite easily prove unfounded. This is a method designed to find us a bet in the race based on sound assessment so we need to remain aware of that. Other choices and decisions could have been made along the way and might have lead to a different outcome.
Breeding
Typically Leger winners are sired by high class sires that were themselves Gr 1 winners, with a Stamina index between 10 and 12, that won or placed in middle distance classics like the Epsom and French Derbies as 3 year olds. In recent years, Leger winners have been grandsons of the mighty Sadlers Wells or out of a Sadlers Wells mare. Diesis has been the Dam sire of just 3 runners in the last 10 years and incredibly all 3 won. Diesis is not represented this year though.
Dosage analysis
The average figures for a Leger winner are DP 33 DI 1.0 CD -0.20 so I will be looking to eliminate any that are wide of the mark. Some may seem that they don't fit but I noted that 3 recent winners had DP 18, 18 and 16. However, those with DPs below 14 are likely to find 14.5 furlongs too far.
Key Trials
Leger winners will often have been campaigned with the race in mind since the very beginning. They will have run (and mostly likely placed) in races like the Epsom or Irish Derby, several races at Royal Ascot notably the King Edward VII Stakes, the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and the Great Voltigeur Stakes at the Ebor meeting.
Recent Form
These horses should have been brought to peak form in recent starts and ideally produced a lifetime best either on their last appearance or the penultimate. Reaching at least a placing is preferable and a run within a couple of months would be best as fitness could well be an issue. The level of form required is significant – the last 10 all had an RPR of 111 or higher in one of their last 2 starts prior to winning the classic.
Distance considerations
Winners tend to have won their maiden at between 8 and 10 furlongs rather than 7 & 12 furlongs which many entrants had done. Winning a race at 10 or 12 furlongs is preferable and the vast majority had not previously attempted 14 furlongs or further. Those trying 14 furlongs for the first time in the Leger strike at a much higher rate than those that had already tried it. There may be a logical explanation but simply put the best trials are at less than 14 furlongs and trainers put their best horses in the best races.This does not preclude a horse that has tried 14 furlongs from winning of course.
Elimination Process
As ever, I will begin by eliminating the very unlikely winners from consideration.Looking at the spreadsheet we can see Blue Hussar only passes one of the tests it would be a major shock if he took home the prize. Winter Thunder, Streetcar To Stars and Astronereus all have a DP below 14 and are very unlikely to stay the trip strongly enough and are eliminated.
Given the very high numbers of Leger winners that ran in the key races listed in columns N, O and P on the spreadsheet I think those horses that did not try any of those races should be considered unlikely. They are the already eliminated Astronereus and Winter Thunder, Adjusted, Kings Fete, Forever Now, Alex My Boy, Min Alemarat.
Long Short List (29/08/2014)
Hopefully the winner will be among the remaining 12 runners listed below that have survived to this point:
Snow Sky
Kingfisher
Windshear
Odeon
Hartnell
Romsdal
Indian Maharaja
Granddukeoftuscany
Scotland
Kingston Hill
Somewhat
Marzocco
Now, I could start eliminating from here, based on certain trends, form and so on but have decided to take a closer look at the runners to see whether they deserve a place on the final betting short list. Remember, this list is for those that I would consider having a bet on. Those eliminated may still win the race (they are on the long list after all) it's just that they make no appeal to me for a bet.
Snow Sky
By Nayef, who tends to get 8 to 10 furlong horses, his dosage index certainly offers some hope that he will stay as it is in line with recent Leger winners like Scorpion, Mastery, Arctic Cosmos and Masked Marvel. Has progressed nicely all season, winning the Listed Lingfield Derby Trial, had an off day in the King Edward VII finishing 4th,won the key Gordon Stakes and was second in the Great Voltigeur on his final start recording RPR 117. He tops the spreadsheet and is a must for the short list.
Kingfisher
By Derby winner Galileo and with a dosage index that virtually guarantees he will stay. He won at Chester in the Dee Stakes and was later 2nd in the Irish Derby which would be his best performance. He remains on the short list.
Windshear
By Arc winner Hurricane Run, a grandson of Sadlers Wells, with a dosage index which virtually guarantees he will stay any trip on the flat. Narrowly beaten in the Gordon Stakes on his latest start. Never out of the first two in seven starts. Remains on the short list.
Odeon
On breeding and dosage index he should stay the trip, however he has been excessively keen in his races so far giving himself no chance of doing so. If he behaves the same way in the Leger he will be beaten a very long way from home. Has not achieved the required level of form so far and, although he has the potential, he could not be recommended as a betting option and is thus eliminated.
Hartnell
By Derby winner Authorised, he has already won the Queens Vase at 2 miles and the Bahrain Trophy at 1 mile 5 furlongs so we know he stays pretty well. The dosage index backs this up. However, was well beaten in the Great Voltigeur by both Snow Sky and Odeon and has yet to produce the necessary level of form (RPR 109). Had he not run in the Voltigeur I would be saying he had not run in the right trials and dismissing him. Having been beaten out of sight he has a major task to bounce back in a race like the Leger and I will not be recommending him. Eliminated.
Romsdal
By Halling, who did not run at 12 furlongs himself, has a dosage index that suggests he will stay well enough. Has never won on turf, went very close when chasing home Orchestra in the Gr 3 Chester Vase on just his 3rd start, trainer clearly knew he was smart even then. 3rd in Epsom Derby on just 4th lifetime start then tried in the King George where he was well beaten and eased. Trainer excels in the Leger and nominated the race for Romsdal after Epsom. I would find it hard to bet a turf maiden but the extraordinary trainer is certainly capable of getting horses to bounce back. Remains on the short list for now.
Indian Maharaja
Breeding suggest he would stay but his form and preparation are a long way from what is typically required. Eliminated.
Granddukeoftuscany
Bred along the right lines but won his maiden over 12 furlongs, only raced 3 times, beaten a long way in the Voltigeur and will need to improve an implausible amount to win the Leger.Eliminated.
Scotland
By German sire Monsun, certainly bred to stay but looks on the slow side. Beaten in the King Edward VII and Gordon Stakes, he might benefit from the longer trip of the Leger. RPR is lower than ideal, has not won a race at 10 furlongs or further. Would be a surprise winner. Left in for now.
Kingston Hill
By Mastercraftsman, himself a miler, dosage index suggests staying the trip would be within the compass. Ran second in the Epsom Derby which is the highest rated single piece of form on offer in the field. Has 4 performances in total that exceed the RPR requirement. Won his maiden at 7 furlongs, yet to win beyond a mile.Pronounced preference for yielding going and withdrawn because of quick going from the Voltigeur. Not run for 70 days, unplaced on final start. Despite being favourite, this horse has an unappealing profile. His position in the market is based solely on finishing second in the Derby and although he could very well win I could not possibly bet him at the available odds so he does not make my short
list. Eliminated
Somewhat
American bred, dosage index suggests he should stay, raced mostly at 7 furlongs as a 2 year old, placed in the Gordon Stakes and then raced older horses. Was used as a pacemaker in the Eclipse yet managed to finish 3rd and in front of Kingston Hill. Has a clear preference for fast going. Has front run the last 4 outings, never won beyond 7 furlongs. Remains on the list for now.
Marzocco
American bred, dosage certainly suggests staying is not going to be a problem,was 3rd (bumped by Hartnell) in the Queens Vase at 2 miles. Not yet won on turf or at 10 furlongs plus. He is another that might win but there
is no case to be made to bet him. He is therefore eliminated from consideration.
The Betting List
Having made those notes the list of runners, with best price available, under consideration for a bet are:
Snow Sky 7/1
Kingfisher 20/1
Windshear 10/1
Romsdal 7/1
Scotland 33/1
Somewhat 40/1
The Internal Dialogue & How To Chose a Bet
So, how to decide on a bet? OK, well, I will attempt to express the thoughts that have bubbled up whilst I've been doing the research. Although, as actually explaining the visualisation is much trickier than doing it, I may struggle to get over the concepts so forgive me. Here goes:
Aidan O'Brien has a good record in the Leger having won it 3 times since 2002. In the last ten years, his first string has a record of 2 winners and 2 placed from 10 runners. Therefore, Kingfisher needs to be taken seriously. On his last 3 outings he has been used as a pacemaker in the Epsom Derby, Irish Derby and Juddmonte International. My assessment is that if he had been targeted at the Leger all along then he would not have been
campaigned like this. Finishing last on your final start is no preparation at all and his whole case would be based on finishing 2ndin the 5 runner Irish Derby. Unlike both O’Brien’s' Leger winners, Kingfisher did not run in the Gallinule Stakes. On balance I doubt he is the winner. 20/1 is not quite tempting enough at this stage. (edit: later info suggests he will run at the Curragh on the same day)
Romsdal has a similar case to be made as Kingfisher in that he ran well when placed in the Epsom Derby which may well be the strongest race represented. His trainer also has an outstanding record having won 3 renewals in the last 7 years. I am wondering why he ran Romsdal in the King George as he had the Oaks winner for that. Romsdal put in a no show that day and coming in here has plenty of questions to answer not least winning on turf. I was shocked when I saw he was best priced 7/1 and third favourite. Really? I could not possibly consider him at those odds even though I admit he might well win.
Snow Sky, Windshear, Somewhat and Scotland were 1st,2nd, 3rd and 5th respectively in the Gordon Stakes. The Gordon has become the key trial for the Leger with 4 of the last 10 winners having run in it. Horses placed in the race are not discounted either as of 8 placed horses to try, 3 went on to win and one placed. Therefore, Snow Sky, Windshear and Somewhat are all of interest as potential winners. It would be surprising to me if Scotland were able to reverse the form with the three that finished ahead. He also has never achieved the minimum RPR of 111 and he is therefore dismissed from consideration for betting purposes. He looks the sort that will improve with age, longer trips and softer ground.
Somewhat is a stable mate of Hartnell and both have been front running in their races. Hartnell disappointed in the Voltigeur (Leger winners that ran in Voltigeur were placed at least) so I am against him. However, I do wonder if some kind of team tactics might be employed. If they were left unmolested on the pace that might well increase their chances which may be something to consider in running.
Somewhat has yet to win beyond 7 furlongs which looks very negative
to me yet he was close up in the Gordon. Working on the balance of
probability, it seems unlikely that, having front run in the Gordon at 12
furlongs and not been able to hold off the closers, he would be able to do so over the extra 2.5 furlongs.
Therefore, I am now left to consider Snow Sky, winner of the Gordon Stakes, and Windshear who was a neck second behind him. They are the top and joint second top on my spreadsheet so it is nosurprise that they come under close consideration. The breeding angle interests me as Nayef would not be the most obvious sire for a Leger winner. His dosage index seems to suggest he should stay although he certainly seems to have more speed in his pedigree than a typical winner indicated by his CD figure of 0.39 compared to the average of -0.10. He has run well, mostly, in key trials like the Gordon and Voltigeur but won the Lingfield Derby trial which has no record of providing the Leger winner. Whether he truly stays, in the Leger, or not could well depend on the fractions set by the front runners.
Hence, my interest in the possible steady pace if the two Johnston runners get to the front and try to steal it. However, in a true galloping test of
stamina there might be a serious worry about Snow Sky truly staying. The final declarations will also have an impact on the pace profile.
There are no worries about Windshear getting the trip. In fact, it would seem reasonable to believe that he will be benefit from the longer trip as his dosage index screams stamina. Yet, he has also shown good speed in the Gordon Stakes, picking up well off a strong gallop which makes me wonder what could he achieve if able to show similar speed at the end of 14.5 furlongs? My main worry about him would, in fact, be a race with no pace where the runners are stacked up until the home straight then all kick for home from there, effectively turning it into a 3 furlong sprint after a slow jog. This pace scenario would probably not be ideal, he could get left behind before staying on again. More assessment on the likely pace profile can be made after the final decs . Until then, I will work on the basis of a typical race which would suit Windshear just fine.
The in running comments from the Gordon are most interesting. As you no doubt know, I use in running commentsfrequently as they contain much useful information if you can interpret them. The comment for Windshear says:
“In touch in midfield, not clear run and shuffled back over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, close 6th and switched left just inside final furlong, strong run final 100yds, went 2nd near finish, never quite getting to winner"
Let's analyse that comment. He was unable to get a clear, run and got shuffled back two furlongs out, meaning he was further back than he would have been had he got a clear run. He was 6th with less than a furlong to run but managed to produce a strong run and beat all bar Snow Sky, going down by a neck. He also switched left prior to beginning his run. I am left wondering what he might have done had he not been denied a clear run, not been shuffled back and not had to switch left to get his run? I am also wondering, if he can do this at a distance I consider short of his optimum what might he do at a more suitable trip?
Snow Sky in that race earned these comments:
“Took keen hold, held up in touch in last trio, headway over 3f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, went right 1f out and then went back left under pressure
inside final furlong, forged ahead again final 75yds, ran on “
He too looks capable of producing more having wandered left and right before straightening and running on again. I can envisage these two both being involved at the finish of the Leger with either Snow Sky able to maintain his advantage using the superior speed in his pedigree or Windshear able to maintain the gallop at top speed for longer using his greater stamina. I am certain he might well have beaten him in the Gordon with a clear run and that, with the right passage, can do so in the Leger
Betting Conclusion
At the head of the market, I have serious concerns about the likes of Kingston Hill and Romsdal who both represent the Epsom Derby form, at the prices and cannot recommend them.
Of the outsiders, horses like Forever Now, Alex My Boy, Marzocco, Scotland and Odeon could possibly run better than their odds suggest. These are, after all, 3 yo entire colts and as such are open to dramatic changes of performance. That is something unpredictable and not something I can bet on.
I could chose to bet both the final two horses on the list at the prices. However, I do have those stamina concerns, slight though they be, about Snow Sky so at this stage I prefer not to bet him ante post even though his price could contract between now and the race. We would always retain the option to bet him in the day of the race market if need be.
Therefore, at 10/1, I make WINDSHEAR a cracking ante post each way bet. He is rapidly improving, seems sure to relish the trip, won't mind what happens with the going (won on soft, ran lifetime best RPR on good to firm). He reached a close placing in the best trial and a lifetime best rating on his final start showing the ability to produce a strong run when asked so I feel quite happy that his connections will approach the race with hope and confidence, as do I.
Betting Advice
Several firms are going 10/1 about Windshear and I have already begun to bet him, slowly at the rate of 2 points win for every 1 point place. I am going to continue taking as much of the 10/1 as I possibly can because many are already only going 7/1 and I expect the price to shorten inexorably over the next two weeks. In addition, there are bound to be non runners, which could include the favourite if the going is quick, but of course there will be no rule
4 deductions from ante post bets.
Of course, there is always the risk of not getting a run with ante post betting so you should make sure the stakes applied are those that you could lose without too much anguish. Once the final decs are in we can reassess our position and take appropriate steps.
I am recommending 2 points win and 1 point place as I am very confident that Windshear will at least place so am only using the place part to recover all stakes. I will be prepared to have a large total stake as long as I can bet the place part to return the win part. There will also likely be offers around nearer the off like 'money back if second' and so on that we will need to take full advantage of in order to have the biggest bets at maximum value.
Back WINDSHEAR 2 points win 1 point place at 10/1 various firms
I am going to repeat this bet with as many firms as I can. My
recommendation is for you to have as much each way in the ante post as you dare risk losing without a run. Then to be prepared to go back in if the value can be found. Just wanted to make this clear.
Notes: Only William Hill are now 10/1 and then only in shops, still the general 9/1 is excellent ew value
ps I cannot reproduce the Excel spreadsheet in here so I hope you will excuse me, I tried to screenshot it but it just came out tiny and illegible
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/viewtopic.php?pid=632573#p632573
The oldest classic, for 3yo colts and fillies, run at Doncaster and a severe test of both speed and stamina for these young horses. Fortunately this race has long established trends and breeding requirements which help the selection process. Key long established trial races, the race record and stamina index of sires,speed ratings and dosage indexes are all useful ways to focus the laser. I shall just work through the data much of which is expressed in the spreadsheet.
Comments on the Approach
As ever, I am deploying the 'on balance of probability' and 'eliminate the unlikely' methods that have served us well in the past combined with fine judgement of the 'significance' of various pieces of information. However, we must remember that any decision taken could quite easily prove unfounded. This is a method designed to find us a bet in the race based on sound assessment so we need to remain aware of that. Other choices and decisions could have been made along the way and might have lead to a different outcome.
Breeding
Typically Leger winners are sired by high class sires that were themselves Gr 1 winners, with a Stamina index between 10 and 12, that won or placed in middle distance classics like the Epsom and French Derbies as 3 year olds. In recent years, Leger winners have been grandsons of the mighty Sadlers Wells or out of a Sadlers Wells mare. Diesis has been the Dam sire of just 3 runners in the last 10 years and incredibly all 3 won. Diesis is not represented this year though.
Dosage analysis
The average figures for a Leger winner are DP 33 DI 1.0 CD -0.20 so I will be looking to eliminate any that are wide of the mark. Some may seem that they don't fit but I noted that 3 recent winners had DP 18, 18 and 16. However, those with DPs below 14 are likely to find 14.5 furlongs too far.
Key Trials
Leger winners will often have been campaigned with the race in mind since the very beginning. They will have run (and mostly likely placed) in races like the Epsom or Irish Derby, several races at Royal Ascot notably the King Edward VII Stakes, the Gordon Stakes at Glorious Goodwood and the Great Voltigeur Stakes at the Ebor meeting.
Recent Form
These horses should have been brought to peak form in recent starts and ideally produced a lifetime best either on their last appearance or the penultimate. Reaching at least a placing is preferable and a run within a couple of months would be best as fitness could well be an issue. The level of form required is significant – the last 10 all had an RPR of 111 or higher in one of their last 2 starts prior to winning the classic.
Distance considerations
Winners tend to have won their maiden at between 8 and 10 furlongs rather than 7 & 12 furlongs which many entrants had done. Winning a race at 10 or 12 furlongs is preferable and the vast majority had not previously attempted 14 furlongs or further. Those trying 14 furlongs for the first time in the Leger strike at a much higher rate than those that had already tried it. There may be a logical explanation but simply put the best trials are at less than 14 furlongs and trainers put their best horses in the best races.This does not preclude a horse that has tried 14 furlongs from winning of course.
Elimination Process
As ever, I will begin by eliminating the very unlikely winners from consideration.Looking at the spreadsheet we can see Blue Hussar only passes one of the tests it would be a major shock if he took home the prize. Winter Thunder, Streetcar To Stars and Astronereus all have a DP below 14 and are very unlikely to stay the trip strongly enough and are eliminated.
Given the very high numbers of Leger winners that ran in the key races listed in columns N, O and P on the spreadsheet I think those horses that did not try any of those races should be considered unlikely. They are the already eliminated Astronereus and Winter Thunder, Adjusted, Kings Fete, Forever Now, Alex My Boy, Min Alemarat.
Long Short List (29/08/2014)
Hopefully the winner will be among the remaining 12 runners listed below that have survived to this point:
Snow Sky
Kingfisher
Windshear
Odeon
Hartnell
Romsdal
Indian Maharaja
Granddukeoftuscany
Scotland
Kingston Hill
Somewhat
Marzocco
Now, I could start eliminating from here, based on certain trends, form and so on but have decided to take a closer look at the runners to see whether they deserve a place on the final betting short list. Remember, this list is for those that I would consider having a bet on. Those eliminated may still win the race (they are on the long list after all) it's just that they make no appeal to me for a bet.
Snow Sky
By Nayef, who tends to get 8 to 10 furlong horses, his dosage index certainly offers some hope that he will stay as it is in line with recent Leger winners like Scorpion, Mastery, Arctic Cosmos and Masked Marvel. Has progressed nicely all season, winning the Listed Lingfield Derby Trial, had an off day in the King Edward VII finishing 4th,won the key Gordon Stakes and was second in the Great Voltigeur on his final start recording RPR 117. He tops the spreadsheet and is a must for the short list.
Kingfisher
By Derby winner Galileo and with a dosage index that virtually guarantees he will stay. He won at Chester in the Dee Stakes and was later 2nd in the Irish Derby which would be his best performance. He remains on the short list.
Windshear
By Arc winner Hurricane Run, a grandson of Sadlers Wells, with a dosage index which virtually guarantees he will stay any trip on the flat. Narrowly beaten in the Gordon Stakes on his latest start. Never out of the first two in seven starts. Remains on the short list.
Odeon
On breeding and dosage index he should stay the trip, however he has been excessively keen in his races so far giving himself no chance of doing so. If he behaves the same way in the Leger he will be beaten a very long way from home. Has not achieved the required level of form so far and, although he has the potential, he could not be recommended as a betting option and is thus eliminated.
Hartnell
By Derby winner Authorised, he has already won the Queens Vase at 2 miles and the Bahrain Trophy at 1 mile 5 furlongs so we know he stays pretty well. The dosage index backs this up. However, was well beaten in the Great Voltigeur by both Snow Sky and Odeon and has yet to produce the necessary level of form (RPR 109). Had he not run in the Voltigeur I would be saying he had not run in the right trials and dismissing him. Having been beaten out of sight he has a major task to bounce back in a race like the Leger and I will not be recommending him. Eliminated.
Romsdal
By Halling, who did not run at 12 furlongs himself, has a dosage index that suggests he will stay well enough. Has never won on turf, went very close when chasing home Orchestra in the Gr 3 Chester Vase on just his 3rd start, trainer clearly knew he was smart even then. 3rd in Epsom Derby on just 4th lifetime start then tried in the King George where he was well beaten and eased. Trainer excels in the Leger and nominated the race for Romsdal after Epsom. I would find it hard to bet a turf maiden but the extraordinary trainer is certainly capable of getting horses to bounce back. Remains on the short list for now.
Indian Maharaja
Breeding suggest he would stay but his form and preparation are a long way from what is typically required. Eliminated.
Granddukeoftuscany
Bred along the right lines but won his maiden over 12 furlongs, only raced 3 times, beaten a long way in the Voltigeur and will need to improve an implausible amount to win the Leger.Eliminated.
Scotland
By German sire Monsun, certainly bred to stay but looks on the slow side. Beaten in the King Edward VII and Gordon Stakes, he might benefit from the longer trip of the Leger. RPR is lower than ideal, has not won a race at 10 furlongs or further. Would be a surprise winner. Left in for now.
Kingston Hill
By Mastercraftsman, himself a miler, dosage index suggests staying the trip would be within the compass. Ran second in the Epsom Derby which is the highest rated single piece of form on offer in the field. Has 4 performances in total that exceed the RPR requirement. Won his maiden at 7 furlongs, yet to win beyond a mile.Pronounced preference for yielding going and withdrawn because of quick going from the Voltigeur. Not run for 70 days, unplaced on final start. Despite being favourite, this horse has an unappealing profile. His position in the market is based solely on finishing second in the Derby and although he could very well win I could not possibly bet him at the available odds so he does not make my short
list. Eliminated
Somewhat
American bred, dosage index suggests he should stay, raced mostly at 7 furlongs as a 2 year old, placed in the Gordon Stakes and then raced older horses. Was used as a pacemaker in the Eclipse yet managed to finish 3rd and in front of Kingston Hill. Has a clear preference for fast going. Has front run the last 4 outings, never won beyond 7 furlongs. Remains on the list for now.
Marzocco
American bred, dosage certainly suggests staying is not going to be a problem,was 3rd (bumped by Hartnell) in the Queens Vase at 2 miles. Not yet won on turf or at 10 furlongs plus. He is another that might win but there
is no case to be made to bet him. He is therefore eliminated from consideration.
The Betting List
Having made those notes the list of runners, with best price available, under consideration for a bet are:
Snow Sky 7/1
Kingfisher 20/1
Windshear 10/1
Romsdal 7/1
Scotland 33/1
Somewhat 40/1
The Internal Dialogue & How To Chose a Bet
So, how to decide on a bet? OK, well, I will attempt to express the thoughts that have bubbled up whilst I've been doing the research. Although, as actually explaining the visualisation is much trickier than doing it, I may struggle to get over the concepts so forgive me. Here goes:
Aidan O'Brien has a good record in the Leger having won it 3 times since 2002. In the last ten years, his first string has a record of 2 winners and 2 placed from 10 runners. Therefore, Kingfisher needs to be taken seriously. On his last 3 outings he has been used as a pacemaker in the Epsom Derby, Irish Derby and Juddmonte International. My assessment is that if he had been targeted at the Leger all along then he would not have been
campaigned like this. Finishing last on your final start is no preparation at all and his whole case would be based on finishing 2ndin the 5 runner Irish Derby. Unlike both O’Brien’s' Leger winners, Kingfisher did not run in the Gallinule Stakes. On balance I doubt he is the winner. 20/1 is not quite tempting enough at this stage. (edit: later info suggests he will run at the Curragh on the same day)
Romsdal has a similar case to be made as Kingfisher in that he ran well when placed in the Epsom Derby which may well be the strongest race represented. His trainer also has an outstanding record having won 3 renewals in the last 7 years. I am wondering why he ran Romsdal in the King George as he had the Oaks winner for that. Romsdal put in a no show that day and coming in here has plenty of questions to answer not least winning on turf. I was shocked when I saw he was best priced 7/1 and third favourite. Really? I could not possibly consider him at those odds even though I admit he might well win.
Snow Sky, Windshear, Somewhat and Scotland were 1st,2nd, 3rd and 5th respectively in the Gordon Stakes. The Gordon has become the key trial for the Leger with 4 of the last 10 winners having run in it. Horses placed in the race are not discounted either as of 8 placed horses to try, 3 went on to win and one placed. Therefore, Snow Sky, Windshear and Somewhat are all of interest as potential winners. It would be surprising to me if Scotland were able to reverse the form with the three that finished ahead. He also has never achieved the minimum RPR of 111 and he is therefore dismissed from consideration for betting purposes. He looks the sort that will improve with age, longer trips and softer ground.
Somewhat is a stable mate of Hartnell and both have been front running in their races. Hartnell disappointed in the Voltigeur (Leger winners that ran in Voltigeur were placed at least) so I am against him. However, I do wonder if some kind of team tactics might be employed. If they were left unmolested on the pace that might well increase their chances which may be something to consider in running.
Somewhat has yet to win beyond 7 furlongs which looks very negative
to me yet he was close up in the Gordon. Working on the balance of
probability, it seems unlikely that, having front run in the Gordon at 12
furlongs and not been able to hold off the closers, he would be able to do so over the extra 2.5 furlongs.
Therefore, I am now left to consider Snow Sky, winner of the Gordon Stakes, and Windshear who was a neck second behind him. They are the top and joint second top on my spreadsheet so it is nosurprise that they come under close consideration. The breeding angle interests me as Nayef would not be the most obvious sire for a Leger winner. His dosage index seems to suggest he should stay although he certainly seems to have more speed in his pedigree than a typical winner indicated by his CD figure of 0.39 compared to the average of -0.10. He has run well, mostly, in key trials like the Gordon and Voltigeur but won the Lingfield Derby trial which has no record of providing the Leger winner. Whether he truly stays, in the Leger, or not could well depend on the fractions set by the front runners.
Hence, my interest in the possible steady pace if the two Johnston runners get to the front and try to steal it. However, in a true galloping test of
stamina there might be a serious worry about Snow Sky truly staying. The final declarations will also have an impact on the pace profile.
There are no worries about Windshear getting the trip. In fact, it would seem reasonable to believe that he will be benefit from the longer trip as his dosage index screams stamina. Yet, he has also shown good speed in the Gordon Stakes, picking up well off a strong gallop which makes me wonder what could he achieve if able to show similar speed at the end of 14.5 furlongs? My main worry about him would, in fact, be a race with no pace where the runners are stacked up until the home straight then all kick for home from there, effectively turning it into a 3 furlong sprint after a slow jog. This pace scenario would probably not be ideal, he could get left behind before staying on again. More assessment on the likely pace profile can be made after the final decs . Until then, I will work on the basis of a typical race which would suit Windshear just fine.
The in running comments from the Gordon are most interesting. As you no doubt know, I use in running commentsfrequently as they contain much useful information if you can interpret them. The comment for Windshear says:
“In touch in midfield, not clear run and shuffled back over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, close 6th and switched left just inside final furlong, strong run final 100yds, went 2nd near finish, never quite getting to winner"
Let's analyse that comment. He was unable to get a clear, run and got shuffled back two furlongs out, meaning he was further back than he would have been had he got a clear run. He was 6th with less than a furlong to run but managed to produce a strong run and beat all bar Snow Sky, going down by a neck. He also switched left prior to beginning his run. I am left wondering what he might have done had he not been denied a clear run, not been shuffled back and not had to switch left to get his run? I am also wondering, if he can do this at a distance I consider short of his optimum what might he do at a more suitable trip?
Snow Sky in that race earned these comments:
“Took keen hold, held up in touch in last trio, headway over 3f out, ridden to lead over 1f out, went right 1f out and then went back left under pressure
inside final furlong, forged ahead again final 75yds, ran on “
He too looks capable of producing more having wandered left and right before straightening and running on again. I can envisage these two both being involved at the finish of the Leger with either Snow Sky able to maintain his advantage using the superior speed in his pedigree or Windshear able to maintain the gallop at top speed for longer using his greater stamina. I am certain he might well have beaten him in the Gordon with a clear run and that, with the right passage, can do so in the Leger
Betting Conclusion
At the head of the market, I have serious concerns about the likes of Kingston Hill and Romsdal who both represent the Epsom Derby form, at the prices and cannot recommend them.
Of the outsiders, horses like Forever Now, Alex My Boy, Marzocco, Scotland and Odeon could possibly run better than their odds suggest. These are, after all, 3 yo entire colts and as such are open to dramatic changes of performance. That is something unpredictable and not something I can bet on.
I could chose to bet both the final two horses on the list at the prices. However, I do have those stamina concerns, slight though they be, about Snow Sky so at this stage I prefer not to bet him ante post even though his price could contract between now and the race. We would always retain the option to bet him in the day of the race market if need be.
Therefore, at 10/1, I make WINDSHEAR a cracking ante post each way bet. He is rapidly improving, seems sure to relish the trip, won't mind what happens with the going (won on soft, ran lifetime best RPR on good to firm). He reached a close placing in the best trial and a lifetime best rating on his final start showing the ability to produce a strong run when asked so I feel quite happy that his connections will approach the race with hope and confidence, as do I.
Betting Advice
Several firms are going 10/1 about Windshear and I have already begun to bet him, slowly at the rate of 2 points win for every 1 point place. I am going to continue taking as much of the 10/1 as I possibly can because many are already only going 7/1 and I expect the price to shorten inexorably over the next two weeks. In addition, there are bound to be non runners, which could include the favourite if the going is quick, but of course there will be no rule
4 deductions from ante post bets.
Of course, there is always the risk of not getting a run with ante post betting so you should make sure the stakes applied are those that you could lose without too much anguish. Once the final decs are in we can reassess our position and take appropriate steps.
I am recommending 2 points win and 1 point place as I am very confident that Windshear will at least place so am only using the place part to recover all stakes. I will be prepared to have a large total stake as long as I can bet the place part to return the win part. There will also likely be offers around nearer the off like 'money back if second' and so on that we will need to take full advantage of in order to have the biggest bets at maximum value.
Back WINDSHEAR 2 points win 1 point place at 10/1 various firms
I am going to repeat this bet with as many firms as I can. My
recommendation is for you to have as much each way in the ante post as you dare risk losing without a run. Then to be prepared to go back in if the value can be found. Just wanted to make this clear.
Notes: Only William Hill are now 10/1 and then only in shops, still the general 9/1 is excellent ew value
ps I cannot reproduce the Excel spreadsheet in here so I hope you will excuse me, I tried to screenshot it but it just came out tiny and illegible
- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/viewtopic.php?pid=632573#p632573
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I agree with most of this Judo - I actually backed Elite Army after Ascot so once he was withdrawn Windshear looked the e/w value. If there is some cut (no faster than good) then Kingston Hill will be hard to beat but the weather forecast isn't looking great for his supporters and I can see him being withdrawn again.
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KH is far from certain to stay
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timeform view
https://www.timeform.com/Racing/Articles/St_Leger_Preview_All_rivers_run_towards_Hannon_charge |
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Kingston Hill will definitely stay IMO. This years derby was run at a strong gallop (compare early sectionals to that of the other two 12 furlong races that day), he was up with the pace the whole way & was going on again at the finish. I'd be very surprised if he doesn't stay (and if he doesn't win tbh).
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Already a thread on this race chaps. Put up Windshear 6 weeks ago at 20/1.
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But Sint you aren't a genius like Judo
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Dont think KH will run looking at the forecast - dry week ahead from wat i can see and way more likely to get his ground in France if thats the case
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The clock says Kingston Hill and Romsdal.Not my favourite race, can only remember backing Comanche Run,one L.Piggott and Rule of Law ridden by the incomparable Kerrin McEvoy.
However will back the above two if they turn up Saturday. |
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"I think Windshear was very unlucky not to beat Snow Sky last time out at Goodwood and I think the extra distance will suit him. He has had a nice break, put on weight and looks well." Richard Hannon said of his St Leger hope. 16 mins ago
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Richard Hannon, On Windshear: "The St Leger has always been the target, particularly as he has been running so well over 1M & 1/2."
Richard Hannon, On Windshear: "We purchased him at Deauville as something a bit different, a horse to get a trip, he certainly does that!" Richard Hannon, On Windshear: "He is also a horse for next year. There have been offers for him, be he's good and I don't want to lose him." |
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Great post Judo. Really enjoy reading your analysis of big races
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you might be interested in this which I just received
http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/classics/2014/2014_st_leger_preview.htm |
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Excellent post judorick. I would only add that on seeing KH's run in the Derby I made him the St Leger horse to beat and I still think its his to lose, assuming he runs.
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judo. you have given me added confidence after your brilliant post, I bet Windshear, Snow Sky and added Scotland in tonight, win lose or draw, it just goes to show how some guys can approach racing from a different angle, best of luck. cheers.
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Good Luck JR. I prefer Kingston Hill , at 7/2 I feel he is overpriced.
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By: This user is online. FELTFAIR
Date Joined: 01 Jun 10 Add contact | Send message When: 08 Sep 14 16:10 The clock says Kingston Hill and Romsdal. The clock rarely lies.  |
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Ground was perfect for fav,ridiculous argument by trainer...
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JudoPrick has gone missing again
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I enjoyed the write up even though I've no real interest in the flat but I'm pretty sure he'd have been on shouting from the rooftops if he'd been right so it is poor that he hasn't made any comment.
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Agree 100% the facts are no one is right all of the time but when he is right he rams it down your throat! A bad winner and loser
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Too much emphasise on supposed stats, dosage index and all sorts of hoo-hah & very little on the actual evidence. Kingston Hill had the best form in the race, he had been rallying at the finish at the Derby (which was run at a strong pace) and was still 7/2. Only negative was the ground.
That's always been Judoprick's problem I suppose, but you want to have some fools in the game - otherwise, there'd be nobody to make a living out of  Still, when you have no body fat, seafront mansions & a London property portfolio, who cares if you can't pick the St Leger Winner?!? |
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Class did tell on hindsight... but you would think there were better horses prepared for the distance... For me KH winning was a suprise... as this horse had not won over a mile... ground did not suit... from a punting perspective it was better to look elsewhere... ok KH won, well thats horse racing... but I think the emphasis on stats etc is exceptionally important in these cases... just proved wrong this year.
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Won over a mile twice last season.
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KH derby performance and the pace it was run at all pointed to the potential for him to stay regardless of the stats. He hadn't exactly been given a lot of opportunities this season to run longer distances. There was a good reason he was favorite for the race, plenty had picked up on this. The performance in the Eclipse said 1m 4f horse at a minimum to me.
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You can't know who will win or who will lose in this game , all you can do is make a case , Judorick made one for a looser , so what ,
has made a case for some big priced winners , in general is an asset to the Forum , glad to see him back . it is the argument you make that matters not ruddy tips which are waste of time imo . |
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Class did tell on hindsight... but you would think there were better horses prepared for the distance... For me KH winning was a suprise... as this horse had not won over a mile... ground did not suit... from a punting perspective it was better to look elsewhere... ok KH won, well thats horse racing... but I think the emphasis on stats etc is exceptionally important in these cases... just proved wrong this year.
Was Iris drunk when he concocted this? |
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Judo what is this?? come on mate.
About Kingston Hill Not run for 70 days, unplaced on final start. Despite being favourite, this horse has an unappealing profile. His position in the market is based solely on finishing second in the Derby and although he could very well win I could not possibly bet him at the available odds so he does not make my short This must be mental illness Judo. You are against Kingston Hill, one reason being he was not placed in the Eclipse!! A staying on 4th in a Group 1. and on this stat you prefer a horse because it was placed in a Group 3 last time out. Jesus H Christ. |
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[b]These horses should have been brought to peak form in recent starts and ideally produced a lifetime best either on their last appearance or the penultimate. Reaching at least a placing is preferable[/b]
A placing in a G3 as opposed to a 4th(higher rating performance) in a G1. - Excuse me for my ignorance but is this the biggest load of bollox that could be? |
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Get it off you chest Angel lad.
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I have to agree with AG though was a bit surprising to say because he was unplaced in the Eclipse a competitive G1 with a trip that clearly didn't suit that he was ruled out. If these G3 horses were good enough they would be running in G1s. Apart from that the analysis was fairly solid, it just missed the point that the key trial above all others this year for the St leger was in fact ...... the derby.
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The analysis was very informative and as background to decision making, was useful. The conclusions and inferences drawn were not unreasonable except that as in very approach of this kind, many filters which are used to eliminate may well be misleading or over-rated. It is always best to start with the ability of a horse as measured by their best performances, then to think about whether they may improve on that. Thereafter, other influences can have a bearing. Group 1 form in G1 races is always to be preferred or at least should be the starting point. The poster maybe lost sight of that.
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I enjoyed the piece and hope he continues to post like this on big races. I did not agree with his choice but I did not back the winner either.
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Lot of hindsight talking on here. The horse just missed the places by a Neck. Analysis was solid, the horse was just not good enough. Kingston Hill was mostly opposed, I suspect, due to his ante-post price which was 5/2, 11/4, but 4/1 on the day. I backed Windshear too but long before the market had really developed.
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I commend the time and effort Judo puts in, but Not run for 70 days, unplaced on final start. Despite being favourite, this horse has an unappealing profile
Why mention the unplaced part if it`s not a factor in the elimination stage? and if it is a factor then why? an unappealing profile is not price related. This is the unplaced run which helped get him eliminated from Judo`s list Held up in 6th and off the pace, ridden well over 2f out, kept on from over 1f out, nearest finish, too much to do - the highest rated last time out performance. G1 form, but discounted as unplaced. |
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@Sintonian, it could be argued that if the trainer hadn't created such a will he won't he run shambles that 5/2 made complete sense given the indication that his form might be quite considerably the best on offer. Personally the comments around the ground created the wrong price from the start.
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Judo used the words unappealing profile for Kingston Hill - i doubt very much the terminology used has anything to do with price.
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what did you back in the race AG ?
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I wouldn`t want to after time and if Windshear had won i would still point out the `recent form` anomaly of the analysis. What i backed is irrelevant because i am not having a dig at his selection, it was a good effort from the horse.
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