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St Leger Judo Style 2014
St Leger Judo Style 2014
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Replies: 71
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no afters
 how do you fancy doing a write up on the ARC ? |
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Get Judo to do it up to the part were he analyses the most recent runs by whether the horse finished placed in a G3 over finishing a staying on 4th in G1.
Let me know when he needs me.  |
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Just to add if Kingston Hill does line up in the Arc as i expect him to, he will probably be a touch of value. The conditions of the race can lean themselves to a horse that gets beyond 12f, 14 on Betfair seems good value to me, especially if there is rain.
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the arc is a fairly difficult race to write up considering half of the trials have taken place in Japan
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no one said it would be easy ,AG is the man imo ,he has started so let him finish
 lay out and overall presentation is just as important as content and will be taken into consideration for a final score . a winning tip is just a bonus . i do remember Judo producing the goods in the GC and not really getting the plaudits  |
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NH racing is where Judo should concentrate. He left me scratching my head last season on the flat by insisting that Toronado was slow by his speed ratings, just before the Sussex Stakes, even though it had nearly won the St James`. Since the Craven he was insisting, even when the horse had the form in the bag, he still couldn`t have the horse....the stubborness of ego.
Perhaps he is an asset with the stats over NH racing with the various ages, stamina issues, course preferences, jumping abilities etc. It`s always good having someone doing the leg work for us to use as a reference points such as the GN. |
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Don't agree with someone being slagged off after the result, could respect it, if it was before race. Just aftertiming really.
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I applaud the detailed analysis but it omits the most vital ingredient in my opinion. The clock.
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Don`t worry Souldancer, the slagging started years ago, but just a reminder his selection is not being questioned, just the way he dismissed Kingston Hills chances.
If i had noticed the thread prior to the race the point would have been raised as with other issues with his elimination process. If Judo was Graham Cunningham he would be ridiculed for suggesting recent for of KH does not fit the stats because he failed to fill the frame in the Eclipse. |
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Oi......stop knocking the stats guys, or 8 out of 10 times I'll get very angry!
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Why come on here 4 days AFTER the race to pick holes in his analysis?
We can all look smart AFTER the race. Who would receive much more respect if you had voiced your opinion BEFORE the race. |
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Brandy these points have been brought up before on Judo`s analysis. He knows i would have pulled him up on the recent form anomaly if i had seen the thread before the race.
What i find incredible is that those that did see the thread before the race did not pick up on it. |
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I think the topic of Kingston hill and not ruling him out on the basis of the eclipse performance was well discussed on the main thread of this race
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As i have previously said on multiple occasions i am not knocking his selection, it ran with credit just getting pipped for the place part of the bet. If i was simply out to rib Judo i would perhaps be suggesting his selection was a bad one but i am not.
I have explained the point i am making, and we all respect Judo for the leg work he puts in on these write ups but if he makes glaring errors in his elimination process then perhaps highlighting these will only enhance his career as a racing analysist. |
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no one said it would be easy ,AG is the man imo ,he has started so let him finish Wink
I look forward to your arc analysis AG good luck |
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Angel Gabriel, Sorry wasnt drunk and yo should brush up with your knowledge...
Looking at previous winners for the St Leger (the stat before the race) ... ENCKE won 1m 2f Masked Marvel 1m 3f Arctic Cosmos 1m 4f Mastery - he didnt win any of his races bar his debut Conduit 1m 4f Lucarno 1m 4f etc So the point Im making is quite valid... in winning over a mile is a good indication of the type of horse you are looking for ... Kingston Hill - never won beyond a mile, as discussed what was missed was the clock timings... if he wasnt pulled out of the Great Voltigeur and won at 1m 4f he would have had the right profile - but we will never know. I think you are using a lot of hindsight as Derby form is strong this year... but generally I would still use this stat as a strong guide ... |
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Kingston Hill - never won beyond a mile
If beyond a mile is the word then that is correct - if over a mile is the word then incorrect. You should have used the word beyond a mile, because we all know KH had won over a mile. Regarding the Derby, and the point you make make me using hindsight regarding the Derby being strong? I find this strange, as you only seem turned on by form when a horse has won over a trip, you point out... ENCKE won 1m 2f Masked Marvel 1m 3f Arctic Cosmos 1m 4f Mastery - he didnt win any of his races bar his debut Conduit 1m 4f Lucarno 1m 4f Then you talk about hindsight regarding the Derby form of KH. If Australia had not run in the Derby KH would have had that win that you so desire to fit a profile. You need to understand that finishing 2nd in one race is as good or better than winning another. You leave me scratching my head Iris. |
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Kingston Hill - never won beyond a mile, as discussed what was missed was the clock timings... if he wasnt pulled out of the Great Voltigeur and won at 1m 4f he would have had the right profile - but we will never know.
But KH already had the highest rated 1m 4f form in the bag. KH has a superior 12f rating than that entire list Iris. Why did you think the Derby ratings were so drastically incorrect? Kingston Hill OR 120 for his 12f form. Encke OR 112 Masked Marvel OR 109 Arctic Cosmos OR 113 Conduit OR 112 Lucarno OR 113 Yet Kingston Hill did not fit the profile, because of his lack of 12f credentials. |
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actually I stated "...had not won over a mile" but maybe I should have been clearer...
agree with your point in regard to finishing second in a race but he was beaten in the Derby and the eclipse form did put a question mark over his ability, as maybe derby race was too hard... like I said if he ran again I may have been swayed... A big shame he did not run in the Great Volitigeur (as he was heavily backed) and he could have redeemed himself... but I do see him as a good to soft to soft horse based on his Racing Post Trophy win... didnt think he was good enough on good ground (as I thought there will always be one too good). In terms of the point Im making in terms of stats is only regarding the St Leger (and prob classics in general)... as every race is different... But, Yes I got it wrong with KH, so will be something to consider in the future. |
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This sort of start is only of value when compared with the opposite 1.e. the number of horses who have never won beyond a mile but who have run in the race.By itself it is as meaningless as stating that 100% of winners had 4 legs. Because there would be very few, it is even doubtful if number of wins is the right metric to use. In any case, price must always be factored into this kind of comparison otherwise you are comparing apples with oranges. A wisple expression of a stat especially when based on a small sample is not only of no real help, it can be downright misleading. As AG has pointed out, a near win in a high class race is worth much more than a win in a lower class race.
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start= stat ,wisple=simple
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but sometimes the best horse dont win the race...
2013 leading Light 7/2 2012 1 Encke (USA) 25/1 2011 3 Masked Marvel 15/2 2010 8 Arctic Cosmos 12/1 2009 7 Mastery 14/1 2008 5 Conduit (IRE) 8/1 2007 8 Lucarno (USA) 7/2 |
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That`s true Iris, and if that had been factored in as a stat then fair enough. How about this one next time?
7. The stat that the best horse over 12f does not always win, so for that reason Kingston Hill is eliminated. ...but KH was eliminated because he did not have the right 12f credentials. Yet he had the best. Anyway, it`s been an eye opener |
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There are quite a handful of stats... especially with classics...
but im on the fence of stats... and has done me good over time... it may not work for you... Did you double up KH on Australia in the Irish Champion? Well there were some key correspondences on your approach to betting. |
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my point is form does get let down
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Form does get let down, but Judo`s analysis includes form, but ignored the best form. So i`m not sure were that leaves stats analysis if this is the way forward.
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I think Judo was quite entitled to make the opinion on stats... and like myself missed on timings... but to be fair there were too many imponderables with the favourite... I didnt think he would turn up for St Leger... because of the ground months back so took SNOW SKY @14s ROMSDAL @14s and WINDSHEAR @16s... so my strategy was played early... on the day thought I had 3 solid bets lol... was already thinking about how to spend the money. Didnt think the horse would win... but thats horse racing.
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NO AFTERS
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Fair enough Iris you got decent prices, and i have no problems with the selections and i could understand why many would be opposed to KH, could be price related etc..it` that i can`t understand how winning a race gaining a rating of 110 fits the stats better than finishing 2nd gaining a rating of 120, or 4th in a G1 is less than a 2nd in a G3.
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no afters.Post race analysis BnB...No gloating, just discussion. |
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I definitely was not aftertiming, see my post September 8th.
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Seems Kingston Hill didn't need the softer ground cos of the longer trip bringing his stamina into play.
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