Horse Antepost
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National Hunt 2014/15 Big Races Thread.
National Hunt 2014/15 Big Races Thread.
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1.55 warwick deputy dan 2 pt win 7-2 coral bog
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Warwick 1.55
Deputy Dan 2.5pt w 4/1 b365 |
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Warwick 1.55
Mickie 2pt win @ 5/1 (B3.6.5) |
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3.15 Kempton
Chartreux 3pt w 15/2 wh |
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3.35 Warwick: 0.5 ew Carruthers 8/1 bet365 (best odds)
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Kempton 3.45
Dubawi Island 1pt win @ 23/4 (BBright) |
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+56.5
tarraco -1 v d sivola -1 r jack -1 salmanazar -1 herdsman -1 +51.5 / 0 IP WP Sint |
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3.00 Fairyhouse
Legal Exit 2pt win @ 39/10 (BBright) |
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Not a great weekend....
+79.05 / 4 IP Peckamecho -1 Ballyoliver -1 Warrantor -1 Mickie -2 Dubawi Island -1 Legal Exit -2 +71.05 / 6 IP |
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don't mean to interrupt thread
that peckhamecho is an annoying horse gi mac there is a race in him but i can't place him...had a few quid saturday but he didn't find again...just can't find the race for him, better ground will suit by the way nice to see you and nocturnal putting up your profit and loss after the action each week, keeps it honest |
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aye, maybe worth another pop on decent ground Harry or over slightly shorter, I'm thinkimg 3m5f was too far? He was still bang there and travelling around the 16th fence, he then started to fade around the 18th. Can't see him going up in the weights after that, his chase mark remains winnable I think.
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he is clearly a better hurdler mac but just don't get what they are trying to do with the horse...yep 3m5f to far, just not sure whether he has breathing issues as he just seems to empty quick but maybe thats just the ground...a decent race is in him i just can't place him, maybe the aintree 3 miler but not sure...luckily i haven't done much damage yet as just monitoring his progress but think there is certainly a decent handicap in him, he will come with a warning however as he seems in and out
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Never realised it had been 2 months since I last updated my p&l, too busy at work. Lots of wedge dropped anyway.
 +24.5 0 IP -2 Road To Riches -3 Calipto -2 Miles to memphis +1.5 Present View 0.0 Rocky Creek -2.5 Haldon GC -2 Baradari -2 Jezki -2 Beat That IP World Hurlde -2 Saphir Du Rheu IP RSA -1 Colour Sqd -2 Urban Hymn +1.5 Dynaste +18.75 Many Clouds +3 Kings Palace -2 Moujik Bourlet -2.5 Ladbroke Hrdl -4 At Fishers C -2 Boston Bob IP Gold Cup -3 Balder Success +3 Balder success +2 Safron Wells -1 Warrantor +19.25 8 IP |
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He was the one who caught the eye,chase mark 132,hurdles 144
Qualified for pertemps final via aintree,but got clobbered with 12lb Saturday was 1st time he has jumped cleanly over fences 3 mile h,cap day 1 chelt entry would be interesting on decent ground? Her other runner Minella on Line looks on a good mark too,travelled really well,and has PPP in the book this year. |
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Sorry.....that was to Harry/GI
Sint....question if I may,and to anyone else,any stats on p/loss for jan/feb over last few years? Looking at last years thread I struggled big time this time year. Not looking for exact figures etc....just wondering if its a time to be more cautious. |
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I don't have info for this time last year Noc though all my bets are recorded on here going back about 5 years now!
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Noc, I was busy today in work I'll get you the stats you asked for soon. But I'm pretty sure for my quick look back that more than one bet in same race (if it is a big competitive handicap) is a profitable endeavour over just 1 bet.
As for months and p/l - October back to back has been loss making for me, I think this is due to two things. Firstly rustiness as I don't bet on flat I'm just back into it in Oct. Also you have crossover of fully fit summer horses taking on fto winter horses. Always side with the Summer horses over bigger names who are fto. Last season Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb were all fairly consistent for me. I do move away from the graded races between Christmas festivals and Cheltenham. Stick with handicaps, like the dour staying races that are around this time of year. Venetia is your friend. I've only kept perfect records for almost 2 seasons now so still have lots to learn, but my no sub 4/1 system should be a good one to stick to for rest of the season. |
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Thanks reply Sint.....I will take a look one evening,another benefit of posting here,being able to check back monthly figs etc..
CV....In horse terms thats a lame excuse!,appreciate the time.After reading your blog had a quick at my own bets posted this season,x2 4//1 shots lowest, both beat,uncanny how that price came up. Thats interesting re more than 1 per race,if the price does not reflect the perceived chance,fully understand.Each way must come into that equation?an area we touched on here last year with differing views,and something I never quite feel comfortable with. Thanks again. |
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I know, work should be secondary to betting analysis
 My reasoning for more than one bet in a big handicap is there are often more than one horse who's price is value, it's simply all horses combined = 100% book, so if I see 3 of good value at about 16/1 who I think are 9/1 shots I'll have 30% of the book which should be about a 2/1 shot, yet I'm getting over 5/1 on the total stake. Also many times horses can be relied upon to be running their best as many are aimed at the race and constraining to one bet misses out on the more reliable nature of quality horses over lower grade handicaps. Stake levels can be altered to account for which horse is best value. I very rarely go e/w anymore and when I do I usually go win and an e/w on same horse so it's still weighted to the win. I just believe a stake lay on all horses at evens would be a more profitable method than e/w. I'll possibly dig up the in running lows of all my bets at end of the season and see if stake lay at evens would yield more profit. I know it's a must at Cheltenham as the i/r odds are madness. Also the key to look at is your return on investment, or your yield. The goal is to have that highest as it's scalable. You want to focus on a yield as high as possible, then at end of the season slowly remove winner after winner to see how many bad luck stories would result in a seasons loss. It's fine line when backing big odds horses, you can do everything right and just have some bad luck or on the flip side your season could have been a lucky one and you're basing lessons learn't from some luck. Well that's what I'm doing this season. |
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42.45 2 ip
-2 unioniste -2 balgarry -1 cool mcaVITY -2 zarkandar +2 AL FEROF -3 champion court -2 lac Fontana -1 global power -2 deputy dan + 29.75  after a good start to the season I cant tip sh*te |
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soz it was 42.75
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Antipost
Mares Polly Peachum 1pt win @ 16/1 (PP) |
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That's an interesting one GI - it scares me when PP do that. Are the entries public tomorrow?
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Not that I'm aware of Pete. I just read an article today where they quoted Nicky talking about the mares race this weekend at Ascot, and he stated that he would be happy going straight to the festival with Polly Peachum, so I'm assuming all is well with her. I like the horse, very progressive, travels great and has course form.
As for the price, Mr Power called his "in" at Closutton, they told him Annie Power is tearing up the gallops and he should price up Polly Peachum at 16/1..... |
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3-15 newc Fill The Power 1pt 6/1 var
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As for the price, Mr Power called his "in" at Closutton, they told him Annie Power is tearing up the gallops and he should price up Polly Peachum at 16/1.....
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Antipost
Betfair hurdle Ebony Express 1pt ew @ 25/1 (PP) |
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Kinloch brae chase
champagne fever 4 pt win @ 11/10 jam staines |
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Antipost
World Hurdle Un Temps Pour Tout 1pt ew @ 25/1 (Lards) |
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3.15 Haydock
Man With Van 1pt ew & 1pt win @ 25/1 (PP) |
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haydock 12.55
colour squadron 2 pt win @ 2-1 jam staines bog |
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haydock 3.15
corrin wood 1 pt win @ 5-1 laddies bog |
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ascot 2.25
garde la victoire 1 pt win @ 4-1 jam staines bog |
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2-50 taunt Vif Argent 1pt 14/1 var
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3-15 hayd Toby Lerone 2pt 10/1 var
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+51.5
f t power n/r v argent -1 t lerone -2 +48.5 /0 IP |
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Leap 2.50
Sea Beat 1pt win @ 16/1 (PP) |
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Leap 3.20
Phantom Prince 1pt ew @ 28/1 (VC) |
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Leop 2.50 - Kylestyle 2pt e/w 40/1 (General)
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