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sintonian
22 May 14 08:05
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Date Joined: 21 Sep 04
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Toronado 7/2
Olympic Glory 11/2
Verrazano 7/1
Magician 10/1
Gold Fun 14/1
Soft Falling Rain 14/1
Darwin 14/1
Able Friend 16/1
Sky Lantern 16/1
20/1 bar

Some big prices available if you don't fancy Toronado. He'll be making his seasonal debut and i'm not sure what their record is in this, it would have been nice for him to run in the Lockinge but the owner won that with Olympic Glory. So, do you keep the faith that his last run at York was just a blip and he'll be back as good as he looked last season? He was seriously impressive on debut last season in the Craven.

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Replies: 92
By:
Workforce
When: 22 May 14 10:37
I've taken the view that Toronado is going to be incredibly difficult to beat. Obviously the York run needs forgiving but if you take the chance he's back to his best he should stamp his authority over these no problem. I can honestly see him going off 5/4 on the day. I'm not given to hyperbole but in fairness to the Hannon's, when they say they've got a good one they usually do and Senior described this as "the best I've trained" last season. Given Canford Cliffs was able to tonk Goldikova, if you take his words literally, and I don't necessarily, Toronado is past the post against this lot. I think DA and T were just two very good milers last season, and I see nothing of their class amongst the older horses.

I am factoring in Olympic Glory not running (entered up this weekend and quiet whispers suggesting he may, only may, be tried in the POW) but if he does I still think Toronado is the better horse. I think Verrazano is a victim of recency bias, DOW showed much improved form in the QA last year so Verrazano must do the same - disagree completely.

Magician presumably goes POW after Tattersalls Gold Cup this weekend, Gold Fun not entered. Sky Lantern heads to the Duke of Cambridge. Soft Falling Rain not good enough.

This is a bit of a cop out to sum up, but if he's back to last season's form he'll take this comfortably. Just a niggling doubt about forgiving the York run and we haven't heard much from Hannon - although T was spotted in a gallops video for QIPCO at end of April. He also was mentioned on the stable blog after the Lockinge.

I think he offers massive antepost value at 7/2 and have bet accordingly.
By:
Figgis
When: 22 May 14 11:47
I had OG very marginally better than Toronado by the end of last season, but preparation is often more of a deciding factor than ability so I would definitely favour Toronado here. He will be primed for this race just as OG was for the Lockinge and I don't believe OG showed improved form there so he's going to be vulnerable as the season progresses. There's also the possibility that Toronado will improve this year. The one that I'd really like to back is Soft Falling Rain, I rated that a very big performance in the Gp2 at Newmarket last year before he bombed out on the soft ground at Ascot. This year I thought he was gradually being brought to a peak for a big race but he had problems leading up to the Lockinge and his participation is in doubt, I'm hoping the situation improves and he runs.
By:
sintonian
When: 22 May 14 13:27
yep, he spiked a temperature on the way over here according to trainer and missed a weeks training. A small setback you would say but they cannot afford any more.

Does anyone know the record of seasonal debutants in the Queen Anne? Canford Cliffs had a prep for the yard but I suppose the circumstances this time around are different given they have OG so have obviously mapped out the race for Toronado.

I agree looking at the list of names it does not look a stellar renewal. Good point about Verrazano and the case for recency bias, i.e comparisons with Declaration of War. However, DOW at least had winning Turf form and the Lockinge did not look a particularly strong race this year. Verrazano is certain to improve but he has never won a race on Turf before, so it would be a pretty unorthodox way of going about things for a Queen Anne winner!! At least Animal Kingdom had achieved that when he tried, being a form U.S dirt winner.
By:
sintonian
When: 22 May 14 13:29
Maybe 7/2 is a standout bet for Toronado. I have him in all my TTF lists so will just leave it at that methinks. Cool
By:
sintonian
When: 22 May 14 13:32
7/1 about Verrazano has gone now fwiw. Tops 6/1.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 22 May 14 14:46
Sint

Since the Queen Anne became a Gr1 no horse has won first time up, but I do not know how many fancied horses have tried tbh.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 22 May 14 15:00
11 times the Queen Anne has been run as a Gr1.

Of the 11 winners 7 had their prep in the Lockinge. Surprisingly only 2 (Canford cliffs & Frankel) won at Newbury.
2 winners came from the Prix d'Ispahan.

O'Brien has won it 3 times. Two of his winners were beat first time up in the Lockinge (Haradasun & Declaration Of War).

Hannon snr has won it twice (Paco Boy & Canford Cliffs). Both horse had their seasonal debut in the Lockinge.
By:
sintonian
When: 22 May 14 16:59
yep, prep can be everything in these races, bit different from a Classic.
By:
sintonian
When: 28 May 14 07:50
Some price changes after Lockinge.

Toronado is a top price 5/2, Verrazano 9/2, OG now 8/1.

Looking a weakish renewal this year.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 28 May 14 15:18
The one that I'd really like to back is Soft Falling Rain, I rated that a very big performance in the Gp2 at Newmarket last year before he bombed out on the soft ground at Ascot. This year I thought he was gradually being brought to a peak for a big race but he had problems leading up to the Lockinge and his participation is in doubt, I'm hoping the situation improves and he runs.


agree with this figgis as was all over him for lochinge before his withdrawal...just have a nagging doubt about his soundness, as i didn't really like the way he moved in dubai but de kock did state he wasn't training him hard for that race with europe in mind this season...anyway if de kock can get him back to his best he remains a colt of serious potential i have just struggled with his overall form and think his newmarket race may have been slightly overrated...i certainly gambled on this race being gospel but have my reservations now...just not sure

am very surprised to see verrazano in at 4-1 7-2 and 3-1 in places - his top performances in the states were in slowly run affairs and he still has a lot to prove in regards being a top class miler on turf

as much as i respect toronado he is very short here first time up and has to overcome a deplorable effort at york and he will have to be at his best to win here, also i still believe he beat a slightly under-par dawn approach at goodwood whose form appeared to tail off after a very hard campaign earlier in the season

olympic glory who i opposed in the lochinge and who recently disappointed once again on a turning track... represents a tad of value here imo back on a straight track...yes you could argue the lochinge was not a great race on paper, however he was a convincing winner and proved his versatility in regards ground which marks him down now as a proper group 1 miler given a straight track and has now backed this up on 3 occasions...i am going to play him, however i could stop 10 tonne truck at present
By:
StaroftheClass
When: 28 May 14 18:05
TORONADO is a phenomenal horse when you catch him right. The problem is he has twice ran as if there were breathing problems- once in the 2000 Guineas, and once at York in the Juddmonte.

5/2 is short, although he can go well fresh, but you have to consider how much VERRAZANO is expected to step forward.


I actually think Toronado will be prepared for Breeders Cup mile this season and is tailor made for fast American turf.

I think if they could actually keep Toronado fit and well and without any issues mid race, he would be close to unbeatable. I think he would stay 10f as well.

He is one to consider in-running- you usually know if he is okay after 2 furlongs- if he looks keen then lay him, if he looks like he has been put to sleep and breezing along, he is in good order.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 30 May 14 08:52
I would have thought that connections were hoping to keep Olympic Glory and Toronado apart but maybe both will run here. Looking at their breeding and how they have run I can not have either staying 10f at Gr1 level. Plus Olympic Glory's obvious liking for a straight track (highlighted long ago by Howlesy) I think it makes sense to run him here also.

I feel the jury is still out regarding Toronado. He is a Gr1 winner and ran a fine race in defeat in last seasons St James, but both if those runs were against Dawn Approach on the down grade. It wouldn't be the biggest shock to see him win but I would like to see evidence of his true ability first especially after his flat tuning at York at the end if last term.


Olympic Glory looked very impressive in the LocKinge and at 8-1 is worth a tickle.
My main bet though is on the Ballydoyle colt.
His form in America is very good. It tailed off slightly which can be expected after such a long campaign. He looked to handle the surface fine at Newbury and we can confidently expect a big improvement from this fine looking and moving colt. He will be much shorter come the day and for me a value bet for this race.
By:
Workforce
When: 31 May 14 13:24
Is Toronado even alive? Have heard nothing at all from Hannon's and there seems to be an omerta around the horse. Seen Hannon junior on the TV a few times and none of the interviewers have asked about the horse, almost as if they've been told not to. Similarly no mention in Hughes column in the RP
By:
sintonian
When: 31 May 14 14:38
There was some updates on their website at beginning of the season but nothing since.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 02 Jun 14 19:27
Hannon Jnr just been interviewed at Windsor, and issued a very positive bulletin about Toronado. Worked well at Newbury yesterday and everything gone to plan. Olympic Glory has been left in as back up but assuming Toronado runs, he looks more likely to go for Prix Jacques le Marois.
By:
harry callaghan
When: 02 Jun 14 19:51
strange decision that...jacques in august...

glad i don't do much ante post now, sometimes it pays...still not happy with decision as the race was looking good with him in it as well as toronado

lets hope they have a change of heart
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 02 Jun 14 20:56
I thought it was a while off when he said it... Maybe he got confused about which race they will save him for?

Surely it was always unlikely they would run the two against each other though Harry?
By:
harry callaghan
When: 02 Jun 14 21:46
well depends catch me...when you have 2 top class milers what races do you go for??

i think olympic went to france with the view to see if he could go up in trip but once again on a turning track and this time up in trip he was disappointing

so he clearly needs a straight track, so where do you go??

anyway i haven't done any damage just disappointed as the race already lacks any real depth imo and they will have to meet at some point as both seem like milers or at least olympic is and he looks pretty track (straight) dependant at present...

anyway it appears the coast is nicely clear for toronado who doesn't look like he has much to beat in terms class here now
By:
sintonian
When: 02 Jun 14 23:10
They will want each horse to win a Group 1 this season before they have to face each other, most likely in the QEII.
By:
sintonian
When: 02 Jun 14 23:30
Soft Falling Rain and Shea Shea working at Newmarket tomorrow.
By:
sintonian
When: 03 Jun 14 13:56
Toronado keeps being cut. 2/1 is best price now, only available with Lads. All others 7/4 or shorter!
By:
Senor El Betrutti
When: 03 Jun 14 17:00
I like this race because for me it's a two horse race between Toronado and Verrazano, I can't have anything else in the race. I really like Verrazano and I wouldn't compare him to Declaration Of War but I would compare him to Haradasun.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 03 Jun 14 17:04
agree. thought looked a two horse race, so have taken the 7/2 on toronado and hopefully will be good enough to beat verrazano on the day. gl all
By:
SoYouThink
When: 07 Jun 14 23:17
I have not being following the flat season that closely but I do remember Haradasun having some good form in Australia, being bought by Coolmore, drifting from something like 3/1 to 7/1 in the show for the Lockinge, ran a good race finishing sixth and then went to Royal Ascot and won. Of course he had Johnny Murtagh that day who was a great man for getting an extra length or two out of a horse.

Verrazano would look to have a similar profile except he's come from USA. Don't think he was well fancied for the Lockinge but would imagine this will be his main target for the season, whereas others in the race might improve come races like the Sussex, the Prix Du Moulin and the QEII.
By:
Workforce
When: 08 Jun 14 00:12
Always thought Haradasun was incredibly lucky to win that Queen Anne - from memory didn't the pacemaker move off the rails and he squeezed through to win narrowly? Retired in immediate aftermath which suggests Coolmore thought he was lucky to nick a Group 1 and didn't want him exposed in further races.
By:
sintonian
When: 09 Jun 14 08:52
This is the race Verrazano has been trained and he will improve for the Lockinge for sure. But he has one piece of turf form to go on which on paper is not that strong. His price of 7/2 is indication of the lack of strength in depth to this race at the moment imo.
By:
sintonian
When: 10 Jun 14 13:55
1 week to go. Toronado now 7/4 tops.
By:
Can't Catch Me
When: 11 Jun 14 14:11
Timberrrrr! VC hanging on at 11/8 but generally 5/4 now.

Could very well go off odds on.
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Jun 14 14:58
Fcuk me that 7/2 was a good price. I didn't take it but more than happy if he wins for TTF purposes.
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Jun 14 15:17
Anodin supplemented by Freddie Head.
By:
Senor El Betrutti
When: 11 Jun 14 16:58
I'm happy to stick with my Verazzano bet but I may have a saver on Toronado. I have never really been a fan of Toronado, I don't know why but I always persuade myself not to back him. Although, this is a particularly weak Queen Anne for me and if Verazzano doesn't take a step forward like I hope then it should be a penalty kick for Toronado.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Jun 14 12:45
I don't think the favourite should be as short as the betting has it. I agree with brandyontherocks, as decent as Toronado was last year he met Dawn Approach on the downgrade and in my view was slightly overrated because of that. The most important factor is whether he will improve from 3 to 4, as he'll need to due to wfa. Without evidence the market nearly always assumes they will, but just as often they don't. This year's race may not contain a real star in opposition but I'd say it's about as deep as usual. Soft Falling Rain would be no pushover at his best but he's had an interrupted prep so that tempers enthusiasm for him. I don't know about Verrazano's American form but it would be no surprise to see him step up on his first British run. It probably won't be soft enough for Tullius to show his best. As unlikely as it may seem to some I think Producer can run a big race if he's ready to go and at the price I'll be chucking a few quid at him each way.
By:
sintonian
When: 16 Jun 14 12:53
You can argue Toronado was unlucky not to be awarded the SJP last year. There was only a short head between them at the line and Toro did take a bump. As a 2yo he never struck me as a potential outstanding horse, but his Craven win last year on  seasonal debut he looked very good. He had that wow factor. If he runs like that I can't see him beaten.

Verrazano has a reputation for downing tools in the U.S. Maybe AOB can coax more out of him but I couldn't back him at the price. To win the Queen Anne on his second ever start on Turf just seems pie in the sky to me.

All the others look Group 2, Group 3 horses.

No bets in the race for me though, just hope Toro wins for TTF purposes.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Jun 14 12:56
I had Dawn Approach on the downgrade in all races after the Guineas.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 16 Jun 14 12:59
I've thrown a few quid on Anodin @ 16/1 and Side Glance @ 40/1 e/w for the sake of having a bet.Crazy
By:
sintonian
When: 16 Jun 14 13:07
Toro, Kingman, Treve treble pays 11/2 if anyone fancies it.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Jun 14 13:48
This is a horrible race and highlights at every turn how poor the last reason milers are. Really speaking Toronado should win easily but only because the opposition is really poor. Everywhere you look you find horses well beaten at lower levels and this is a Group 1 race. I never rated Dawn Approach even though I backed him for last seasons Guineas. He was a good solid horse and the best of a poor bunch.
What will win it? Toronado. He will never get a better opportunity in his life to win a soft Group 1 and if he loses then you can forget him because he obviously has issues. I think it's worth paying to find out.
By:
Figgis
When: 16 Jun 14 14:02
Brigust, you seem to compare all races against the rare exceptional ones and call them really poor. I'd say it was no worse than average.
By:
brigust1
When: 16 Jun 14 14:06
Not really Figgis only the Group 1 races. That is there point I believe. The best take on the best. Toronado may be the best of his generation but I doubt it and none of the others are. You think Toronado benefited from a below pat Dawn Approach so that makes it an even worse race.

Treve's race and Kingman's race look proper Group 1 races  so if you think the Queen, POW and St James Palace are similar in quality then I would have to disagree.
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