Learning about horse racing

Thanks guys...

Ztown, I think the only real answer is to watch, bet and learn. I've read every known book about the game and even written one myself but in the end you have to make the mistakes yourself and learn from them. If you're not a genius, it'll take a long, long time.

ztown, you've been on here 6 years, prob know as much as any of us. Tipsters are worst for price moves, Hugh Taylor, Pricewise, Ben Linfoot. Any tipster having a good run will be followed, same with trainers. Apprentice jockeys 'of the moment.'

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Ztown,ive been punting for 45 years,if you want to know everything about racing form-wise and what to visually watch out for in  running,you can be my apprentice if you like.
Have a look at Cockney Sparrow winning at Liverpool last year and give me your views on his performance when he won.In fact anyother peeps obsevations are welcome,be specific in your analysis.

my apprentice

Well Howdi,is this about as good as it gets on here?.Without being sarcastic would you like to add something else.How about a comment on Cockney Sparrow perhaps?,punters should consign his visual performance to memory,the reasons are obvious,but i can enlarge on it.

Introduced to horse racing by my mother and grandfather when I was about 7 or 8 I have always loved the sport.  In my 20's I read three books that 'taught me' about horse racing (all a bit antiquated now)

1. Braddocks Guide to the turf - a bit unfathomable, but generally led me to form an opinion on what I felt were important factors to concentrate on
2. Mark Cotons Value betting - introduced me to the concept of value, and learning to beat the bookie at their own game (you against the professionals).
3. Nick Mordins 'Betting for a Living' - loved his file card system !  The first time really that I really looked away from 'face value' form and looked a bit deeper into trends and patterns within the form

The 'trend horses' series of books also provided a decent tool, until everyone cottoned on and any decent prices disappeared. Interesting nevertheless.

In the early 90's I had a share in a racehorse with Peter Harris.  A great experience and one that taught me a lot.  A golden rule really is that a horse will have a target race to maximise it's earning potential.  For some horses (most?)that may mean its unlikely to win a few races in the lead up to that race (or races) but those runs will get it fitter plus keep the handicap down. This is why typically a horse has a 'good form' patch, reaches a maximum rating and then starts to go down the ratings until next season !

I always remember Peter giving a young Jason Weaver a right bollocking for winning 'too far' on our horse at Beverley once. It meant finding a quick winnable follow up race was much tougher and probably meant running the horse in the unknown quantity of a higher class.

Therefore, getting to know a stables horses really well and identifying what their target is can help to spot when the money is going down (trust me, the stable will know and so will the owners).

A horses overall form can highlight its chances to the masses, but only a select few will know whether it's really worth risking the hard earned.

Great post Shrews,you are spot on with what you say.One proviso is that with handicaps its all change.The compression of the handicap now means that its difficult to get unexposed horses into a big handicap.Even if they sneak one of these they are normally now hiked up at least 15 pounds which scuppers any chance of winning another one.
Because it takes a long time to come down the handicap and theyre not deemed good enough for listed and group races they are normally sold on and disappear off to foreign shores [unfortunately Godolphin nicks them}.
So the window of making money on them is very slim,as soon as you spot a good one the chance has probably gone,so its harder these days.
As you say you can identify "types"for certain tracks and races,and generally you can see the plan some way off.One thing missing on the forum is very little analysis of track bias for certain horses.One obvious horse Katenko was observed by one of the the Channel 4 team as running disappointingly.I found this surprising,as his victories have been at Ascot and tracks similar,a stiff track where you travel and then ask a horse to dig deep in the short straight and use all its energy in a short burst.
Compare this to when he was fancied by all the pundits and papers when ran on flat tracks with long straights suitable to SPEED horses where energy is needed to be spread over the whole distance,all you need to do is  to keep up the gallop  thge longest.
As you know a typical example is My Tent Or Yours where he is suited to these speed tracks [of course Cheltenham is Possible as long as he gets a fast run race on good ground,as he got at the Festival this year].Hes always liable to do a Harchibald or  a One Man,travel well thru the race but cant quicken when hitting a hill finish.
Please do reply Shrews as we could prove useful to each other.Evey good punters has found an edge,probably each different,the trick is to put it all togther for a good punt.Unfortunately unlike blue chip companies that merge and become ultra efficient,punters dont share,which is bizarre and illogical.

Definitely agree that a team approach is best and have always subscribed to the Mark Coton view of 'beating them at their own game'

My problem is that studying form bores the life out of me.  I can do it for short periods like Cheltenham and the start of the flat, I even like the sprint handicaps, but I find the harder I study I just end up agreeing with the bookmakers !! My book always seems to be very similar to theirs.

Therefore, I'm always looking for a quick fix using figures and a bit of maths and something different (but quick and easy) because that's what I enjoy. For example a few years ago Mordin (I think) stumbled across a system which was super easy that made money for a while - if Topspeed and Postdata have picked the horse but 'Man On The Spot/Spotlight' hasn't then it's a bet (reasoning that punters in the shops generally ignore them and go with MOTS thus ensuring expert advice at a decent price) 

What a team approach would need would be experts on stables, even attached to them. Someone who knows what each horses target is (and what they're not), someone who knows how fit the horses are and whether they are in optimum condition as compared to their 'norm'

Then you need people who know form inside out.  People who know whether the conditions are spot on for the horse.  For example a trainer may have a big handicap as a target for a horse but if the conditions on the day aren't suitable then it probably isn't going to win.  Other form experts would be experts on weight and ratings and those who are experts on each course, how the ground is and what the draw bias is likely to be.

There needs to be an expert on jockeys, someone who knows whether that particular jockeys style is going to suit the horse, and whether that jockey has some acquaintance with the horse at home.

A trends expert, somebody who knows what type of horse the race is likeliest to be won by.  The trainer may know the target but their judgement might be rubbish !

You need somebody who can collate all the information and formulate a decision based on probabilities (i.e does one 'experts' judgement count for more than anothers) and dare I say it but a computer programmer/data inputter to ensure it's an efficient process.

Then you need someone who can be trusted to publish the figures and not to keep it to themselves or to leak it to the bookmakers !

It's not impossible, as there are people on here who are clearly very passionate about the sport and for some it seems almost obsessive. But it's an almighty task and even if it did work then how much of an edge would it give the team over the bookmakers who are clearly experts in this field already ?

To me, the only winning angle is to be an expert in 'obscure sports' in which there are less minds controlling the book.  Racing is pretty much sewn up IMO and winning chances and liabilities on those are calculated in a very sophisticated way, so as to nearly always be on the winning side.

Me, I just do what I want. I drift in and out of the sport sporadically, ranging from obsession to complete boredom. I'm looking for the quick win, the big money mega win rather than a regular income, therefore I play the multiples (mug bets) in the hope that I can put four big prices together on one lucky day.

But good luck with it, definitely the right way to go.

yes, asking someone to be yr apprentice is some what pretentious

Well Howdi,perhaps i had my tongue in my cheek a little bit.Still why listen to me?.i spend 6 days leading up to a big race doing 10 hours a day.I used to be very good,i once backed 7 horses one day,48-1 40-1 and 5-1 winners.Nowadays its doing a book on a race had some good results.
Id say that in 45 years of punting it is now the most hardest time to make money,things have changed,picking winners in one sel has long gone.You make no mention of how good you are or how long youve been punting.If you do enough research over the years you learn things,such as a system that triggers a bet once every 6 months roughly,worth waiting for 3 horses in a race that has a 75% chance of success,just have to pick the right one in 3,70-1,25-1 etc,even got it down to 2 in one race produced a  exacta forcast of over 350-1.
Its not been doing so well lately but it always returns,tracked it back nearly 40 years and its very useful.Anyway,open up a bit,do you specialise in certain races?.give us a bit of info on your punting,have you found an edge?.

The subject is learning about racing,not learning about winning or losing?My advice on this subject would be to follow American Racing to gain interest on sectional times and what they mean,the information is displayed in a clear and concise way  on http://www.equibase.com/,If you gain a understanding of position and pace then,when you refer back to racing in the UK you will see the bigger picture that the sporting papers and web sites lack in displaying, because Sectional time is not funded in a proper way in the UK,but your insights from watching US racing will help you in the process of watching endless video streams of races and interpreting what you are watching(sometimes?)
Betting is another subject which on the whole can come down to personality,it is a separate subject,and extremely hard,I am a racing enthusiast not a pro gambler,there is a big difference.

1)Use your eyes
2)Get an understanding of distance requirements,and ground needs of the individual horse.
3)Get a good understanding of Handicap ratings and how they are to be interpreted.
2)Analyse results and the reason for unexpected results.
3)Watch for training methods and patterns or habits that some may have.
4)Many do attempt to do their own sectional times on video evidence in the UK,It can be done but not always,camera angles etc,remember the first 3f and last 3f are the most important(and what happens in between). 
5)Until you feel comfortable with your selection method and results that follow,do not bet,this could save you fortunes?,Bet only what you can afford,and if you find yourself losing,do not feel a failure but learn to respect that you may not be able to make the game pay,millions of people go through this process,at least then you can make the educated decision to stop gambling(it is a positive )
6)You may then become a Trader(those with wisdom)

All the best!
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The search for the golden fleece continues,it's engaged upon by each new generation,who will go through many varied or similar life changes,Mistakes?well we all make more than few,and problems present themselves daily,racing is full of different personalities,some educated others not yet,It is my observation that those few that have been seen to be successful,tend to be a little bit introverted,and quite in their ways,they may have fierce tempers,and for sure they are competitive,others appear the opposite wild and reckless,perhaps this is also needed?,but the bigger observation is that  many come and go from this game ,be it disappointment or boredom,or realization,and many do return again,Racing like life, changes, it is in a constant change,what was once an hedge is no longer,but the search for the new hedge goes forth at pace,restrictions have crept into the game with some winners impacting the betting shops over the years,those few that do win have to get others too put on for them and in small amounts,this will continue,others are happy now in effect being a trader or just an bookmaker,the old on course presence of the few is hardly practiced now,computers and phones have changed all that,some say for the better,others would disagree,so there is a Yin and Yang to life and most certainly in betting,we live we die,business booms and it goes bust,all we can do is try to judge both!

The Golden rule? - Nature does have a way of making all of us look like fools,and we never fully know what the other mans intent is! http://youtu.be/s88r_q7oufE,just enjoy the music along the way

Why do odds/prices move so much pre-market?  Is there new information coming to the market?

im an expert on the jumps pal

Prices moving indicate that there is a market. What is the pre-market?

No modesty there howdi?

PIPEDREAMER, it is neither bizarre or illogical , why would anyone
share a profitable system, when others would surely jump in before you?

PIPEDREAMER, it is neither bizarre or illogical , why would anyone
share a profitable system, when others would surely jump in before you?

Bazaar,perhaps i should enlarge.I believe that being successful at picking winners can only really be achieved by pooling all everyones knowledge,for it is the sharing of the info that THEN makes a profitable system.
Atypical example was at Ascot some years back i'd had a look at one of the 2-y=old race and had a list of 7couldnt get it down much further so didnt punt.Channon won the race at 50-1.
A chap came up to me later and told me that i guy he knew had suggested to him that it might be worth a punt.It was on my list.Just a small example.
Another time i told a guy to let me know anything he heard,and later that day i noticed a horse running in a selling hurdle named Parachute Pine.I knew that years back that he had been entered on the flat in the 2000 Guineas,never being good enough to even end up running in the big ones,but i thought that if it couldnt win a seller when it once MUST have shown something to warrant a classic entry,then they might as well take it out and shoot it!!!.
I passed my guy in the street and enquired any info,he thought for a mo and then said no.
I didnt bet on the horse as couldnt find any tip anywhere,and it won payind about 66 on the tote.
I later found out that the guy had actually been tipped it,but declared that he wouldnt tell anybody cos he didnt think it had an earthly chance of winning.
So you see chances missed,a piece of info thats irrelevant to one punter speaks volumes to another.In fact there used to be loads of horses that ended up in sellers winning at big prices.I also left a horse alone in a seller that i knew had actually run in the Derby,Tropical Times?.It paid no win divdend for a win and 66-1 a place!!!.
As i say its a small example.I hope any of you out there didnt fancy Spanish Don at 100-1,my joint second for the Cambs in my ratings,i left it alone [i was exhausted,brain ****!!]ended up with the second in the last 2 races that day and wanted to SCREAM!!!very loudly!!.
Loads of examples,few being the usual suspects,[first and second favs].Anyway ive put my case,feel free to comment,in fact please do.

irony roebuck chill out pal

Howellsy, what was your book?

Thanks for asking Figgis. It's called Horse Racing is not about Horse Racing. It's available dirt cheap as an electronic book at the obvious place. It's had one decent review on there which I promise wasn't by me or anyone I know! If you could at least have a look at the free sample I'd be interested to hear your views.

Bit of a lull now before Epsom. Plenty of time to get stuck into a book about betting on horse racing - preferably an "unexpected gem," a "great read" that is "interesting, funny, poignant," perhaps even "beautifully written" to boot. Anyone got any ideas?

I have been attempting to make selections via a mathematical process recently developed, based on the last two years worth of results data. Working only on Handicaps and horses that ran in Handicaps last time out, I am attempting to attach a 'value' to a long list of selections to come up with those deemed to be worthy of a bet. The system basically says that backing a horse rated 1.0 will get you a nil return over the long term i.e. money back.

As an example the following are horses since 1st April on the Flat that were awarded a rating of 3.0 or higher:

Tumblewind    16/04/2014    Beverley    1505    L    36.46    8.08    -1.00
Love Tangle    04/05/2014    Salisbury    1525    L    7.00    3.10    -1.00
Sarangoo    04/05/2014    Salisbury    1635    L    18.54    4.20    -1.00
Regiment    10/05/2014    Warwick            1955    W    18.55    3.05    16.67
Crystal Nymph    15/05/2014    Salisbury    1400    W    9.50    2.85    8.08
The Firm    16/05/2014    Newbury            1505    P    8.00    1.99    -1.00
See Clearly    16/05/2014    Hamilton    2040    L    12.00    3.01    -1.00
Cardinal    27/05/2014    Leicester    1430    P    6.00    1.70    -1.00

Tumblewind won next time out at 6/1 SP and Love Tangle is entered at Brighton on Friday. Sarangoo lost next time out but remains of interest I would say. The Firm was beaten next time out, See Clearly remains of interest and Cardinal ran only today.

An interesting runner later today is Abseil in the 2050 Sandown which gets a rating of 5.83 and I would be interested if anybody else has this one on their radar or thoughts? Not sure what price this will be, probably pretty short given connections.

The following had ratings between 2.0 and 2.99 awarded:

Gran Maestro    09/04/2014    Catterick            1650    L    16.40    3.98    -1.00
That's Plenty    18/04/2014    Musselburgh            1625    W    7.00    2.54    5.70
Echo Of Lightening    20/04/2014    Musselburgh    1405    W    3.36    1.71    2.24
King Pin    21/04/2014    Redcar                    1555    L    44.72    7.02    -1.00
Debdebdeb    05/05/2014    Bath                    1510    W    3.95    1.86    2.80
Outlaw Torn    12/05/2014    Musselburgh            1505    P    7.87    2.58    -1.00
Kastini    16/05/2014    Newbury                            1505    W    2.36    1.21    1.29
Tight Fit    16/05/2014    York                    1625    L    4.43    1.84    -1.00
Barkston Ash    17/05/2014    Thirsk                    1635    W    8.51    2.90    7.13
Groundworker    19/05/2014    Windsor                    2035    P    8.20    2.36    -1.00
Classy Anne    22/05/2014    Ayr                    1420    W    10.41    3.40    8.94
Lion Beacon    22/05/2014    Goodwood            1515    P    4.90    2.16    -1.00
Eastern Dragon    22/05/2014    Goodwood            1735    W    5.64    2.22    4.41
Medieval Bishop    22/05/2014    Musselburgh            1940    L    6.48    2.19    -1.00
Conjuror's Bluff    22/05/2014    Musselburgh    2110    L    31.50    11.50    -1.00
Kashstaree    26/05/2014    Redcar                    1505    L    7.31    2.33    -1.00
Sennockian Star    26/05/2014    Redcar                    1615    L    5.93    2.27    -1.00

Abseil won't be bigger than a 5/2 touch maybe 11/4..

Abseil has been priced up early at a best price of 2/1 by the books.

Anybody else rate this one's chances?

One for Friday: Sipertan Haydock 2105 Rated 2.12

Big Issue, I gave Abseil a very good rating for his Yarmouth win, he then ran into a potential group horse at chester and I don't think that ground was ideal there either, the dam is related to the likes of Dansili and Banks Hill and I'm sure like them he will be at his best on faster ground. He'd be on my shortlist for the Royal Hunt Cup but last year you needed to be 97 to get in so he needs to win a race to get in there really. I wouldn't be backing at 2/1 or less tomorrow but he's definitely a well handicapped horse imo.

Interesting input Steve, not sure be much good in the going description tomorrow, but seems to act well enough on softer, down in grade and a win probbably gets it up towards the magic OR to get in as you say. Must be a fair bet at 2/1 or bigger.

Looks like the world and his wife want to be on Abseil, best price 6/4 with books already.

Non-runner.

Referring back to the previous postings, what's the best way to tackle a system's data. Do you go for the maximum rate of return (usually less bets but far more possible variance) or a lesser ROR but more winners and hence less variance. Any tools for calculating the best way to maximise profit but reduce variance?

For example, from my data set for Flat horses, I can set the PV (potential value) to any value and see the returns, but which is best?

In this case these are the following results for different PV figures

PV Fig 0.0 Qualifiers 2484 Winners 380 ROR -1% (the data set)
PV Fig 0.5 Qualifiers 1626 Winners 298 ROR 39%
PV Fig 1.0 Qualifiers 882 Winners 183 ROR 83%
PV Fig 1.5 Qualifiers 481 Winners 114 ROR 131%
PV Fig 2.0 Qualifiers 250 Winners 68 ROR 190%

My methodology is irrelevant here.

The OP asked about price fluctuations pre-market and I find this the most difficult thing to get a handle on and I am terrible at predicting market moves.

Yes of course if a 'name' tipster comes in, the price collapses - everyone knows that and there is (sometimes) a correction to longer prices on such a selection immediately before a race, so if you do miss the boat in the morning (or evening before) then stick around to just before the off.

But otherwise, even after many years in the game I still find it really tough to 'intuit' when the market is most stretched and I can get the biggest price on my punt.

Perhaps as with every investment, you should trickle funds in (backs) and out (lays) so incremental bets. I saw some data that said that BF prices at 1030 were less efficient than at race start i.e. winners were shorter and losers longer by race time, so an incremental approach would offset some of the market correction?

could be paddock watchers or form students waiting to get stuck in.

who really knwos whats the main influence.

you can get stats that are way out of sync for a spell and these horses will always shorten.

i always thought paddock watchers had more influence on the market though

big syndicates dont bother with the markets until liquidity arrives in the last 10 mins