Learning about horse racing

Ztown, I think the only real answer is to watch, bet and learn. I've read every known book about the game and even written one myself but in the end you have to make the mistakes yourself and learn from them. If you're not a genius, it'll take a long, long time.

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my apprentice

Introduced to horse racing by my mother and grandfather when I was about 7 or 8 I have always loved the sport.  In my 20's I read three books that 'taught me' about horse racing (all a bit antiquated now)

1. Braddocks Guide to the turf - a bit unfathomable, but generally led me to form an opinion on what I felt were important factors to concentrate on
2. Mark Cotons Value betting - introduced me to the concept of value, and learning to beat the bookie at their own game (you against the professionals).
3. Nick Mordins 'Betting for a Living' - loved his file card system !  The first time really that I really looked away from 'face value' form and looked a bit deeper into trends and patterns within the form

The 'trend horses' series of books also provided a decent tool, until everyone cottoned on and any decent prices disappeared. Interesting nevertheless.

In the early 90's I had a share in a racehorse with Peter Harris.  A great experience and one that taught me a lot.  A golden rule really is that a horse will have a target race to maximise it's earning potential.  For some horses (most?)that may mean its unlikely to win a few races in the lead up to that race (or races) but those runs will get it fitter plus keep the handicap down. This is why typically a horse has a 'good form' patch, reaches a maximum rating and then starts to go down the ratings until next season !

I always remember Peter giving a young Jason Weaver a right bollocking for winning 'too far' on our horse at Beverley once. It meant finding a quick winnable follow up race was much tougher and probably meant running the horse in the unknown quantity of a higher class.

Therefore, getting to know a stables horses really well and identifying what their target is can help to spot when the money is going down (trust me, the stable will know and so will the owners).

A horses overall form can highlight its chances to the masses, but only a select few will know whether it's really worth risking the hard earned.

Definitely agree that a team approach is best and have always subscribed to the Mark Coton view of 'beating them at their own game'

My problem is that studying form bores the life out of me.  I can do it for short periods like Cheltenham and the start of the flat, I even like the sprint handicaps, but I find the harder I study I just end up agreeing with the bookmakers !! My book always seems to be very similar to theirs.

Therefore, I'm always looking for a quick fix using figures and a bit of maths and something different (but quick and easy) because that's what I enjoy. For example a few years ago Mordin (I think) stumbled across a system which was super easy that made money for a while - if Topspeed and Postdata have picked the horse but 'Man On The Spot/Spotlight' hasn't then it's a bet (reasoning that punters in the shops generally ignore them and go with MOTS thus ensuring expert advice at a decent price) 

What a team approach would need would be experts on stables, even attached to them. Someone who knows what each horses target is (and what they're not), someone who knows how fit the horses are and whether they are in optimum condition as compared to their 'norm'

Then you need people who know form inside out.  People who know whether the conditions are spot on for the horse.  For example a trainer may have a big handicap as a target for a horse but if the conditions on the day aren't suitable then it probably isn't going to win.  Other form experts would be experts on weight and ratings and those who are experts on each course, how the ground is and what the draw bias is likely to be.

There needs to be an expert on jockeys, someone who knows whether that particular jockeys style is going to suit the horse, and whether that jockey has some acquaintance with the horse at home.

A trends expert, somebody who knows what type of horse the race is likeliest to be won by.  The trainer may know the target but their judgement might be rubbish !

You need somebody who can collate all the information and formulate a decision based on probabilities (i.e does one 'experts' judgement count for more than anothers) and dare I say it but a computer programmer/data inputter to ensure it's an efficient process.

Then you need someone who can be trusted to publish the figures and not to keep it to themselves or to leak it to the bookmakers !

It's not impossible, as there are people on here who are clearly very passionate about the sport and for some it seems almost obsessive. But it's an almighty task and even if it did work then how much of an edge would it give the team over the bookmakers who are clearly experts in this field already ?

To me, the only winning angle is to be an expert in 'obscure sports' in which there are less minds controlling the book.  Racing is pretty much sewn up IMO and winning chances and liabilities on those are calculated in a very sophisticated way, so as to nearly always be on the winning side.

Me, I just do what I want. I drift in and out of the sport sporadically, ranging from obsession to complete boredom. I'm looking for the quick win, the big money mega win rather than a regular income, therefore I play the multiples (mug bets) in the hope that I can put four big prices together on one lucky day.

But good luck with it, definitely the right way to go.

Well Howdi,perhaps i had my tongue in my cheek a little bit.Still why listen to me?.i spend 6 days leading up to a big race doing 10 hours a day.I used to be very good,i once backed 7 horses one day,48-1 40-1 and 5-1 winners.Nowadays its doing a book on a race had some good results.
Id say that in 45 years of punting it is now the most hardest time to make money,things have changed,picking winners in one sel has long gone.You make no mention of how good you are or how long youve been punting.If you do enough research over the years you learn things,such as a system that triggers a bet once every 6 months roughly,worth waiting for 3 horses in a race that has a 75% chance of success,just have to pick the right one in 3,70-1,25-1 etc,even got it down to 2 in one race produced a  exacta forcast of over 350-1.
Its not been doing so well lately but it always returns,tracked it back nearly 40 years and its very useful.Anyway,open up a bit,do you specialise in certain races?.give us a bit of info on your punting,have you found an edge?.

The search for the golden fleece continues,it's engaged upon by each new generation,who will go through many varied or similar life changes,Mistakes?well we all make more than few,and problems present themselves daily,racing is full of different personalities,some educated others not yet,It is my observation that those few that have been seen to be successful,tend to be a little bit introverted,and quite in their ways,they may have fierce tempers,and for sure they are competitive,others appear the opposite wild and reckless,perhaps this is also needed?,but the bigger observation is that  many come and go from this game ,be it disappointment or boredom,or realization,and many do return again,Racing like life, changes, it is in a constant change,what was once an hedge is no longer,but the search for the new hedge goes forth at pace,restrictions have crept into the game with some winners impacting the betting shops over the years,those few that do win have to get others too put on for them and in small amounts,this will continue,others are happy now in effect being a trader or just an bookmaker,the old on course presence of the few is hardly practiced now,computers and phones have changed all that,some say for the better,others would disagree,so there is a Yin and Yang to life and most certainly in betting,we live we die,business booms and it goes bust,all we can do is try to judge both!

Why do odds/prices move so much pre-market?  Is there new information coming to the market?

Prices moving indicate that there is a market. What is the pre-market?

No modesty there howdi?

PIPEDREAMER, it is neither bizarre or illogical , why would anyone
share a profitable system, when others would surely jump in before you?

irony roebuck chill out pal

Thanks for asking Figgis. It's called Horse Racing is not about Horse Racing. It's available dirt cheap as an electronic book at the obvious place. It's had one decent review on there which I promise wasn't by me or anyone I know! If you could at least have a look at the free sample I'd be interested to hear your views.

I have been attempting to make selections via a mathematical process recently developed, based on the last two years worth of results data. Working only on Handicaps and horses that ran in Handicaps last time out, I am attempting to attach a 'value' to a long list of selections to come up with those deemed to be worthy of a bet. The system basically says that backing a horse rated 1.0 will get you a nil return over the long term i.e. money back.

As an example the following are horses since 1st April on the Flat that were awarded a rating of 3.0 or higher:

Tumblewind    16/04/2014    Beverley    1505    L    36.46    8.08    -1.00
Love Tangle    04/05/2014    Salisbury    1525    L    7.00    3.10    -1.00
Sarangoo    04/05/2014    Salisbury    1635    L    18.54    4.20    -1.00
Regiment    10/05/2014    Warwick            1955    W    18.55    3.05    16.67
Crystal Nymph    15/05/2014    Salisbury    1400    W    9.50    2.85    8.08
The Firm    16/05/2014    Newbury            1505    P    8.00    1.99    -1.00
See Clearly    16/05/2014    Hamilton    2040    L    12.00    3.01    -1.00
Cardinal    27/05/2014    Leicester    1430    P    6.00    1.70    -1.00

Tumblewind won next time out at 6/1 SP and Love Tangle is entered at Brighton on Friday. Sarangoo lost next time out but remains of interest I would say. The Firm was beaten next time out, See Clearly remains of interest and Cardinal ran only today.

An interesting runner later today is Abseil in the 2050 Sandown which gets a rating of 5.83 and I would be interested if anybody else has this one on their radar or thoughts? Not sure what price this will be, probably pretty short given connections.

Abseil won't be bigger than a 5/2 touch maybe 11/4..

Big Issue, I gave Abseil a very good rating for his Yarmouth win, he then ran into a potential group horse at chester and I don't think that ground was ideal there either, the dam is related to the likes of Dansili and Banks Hill and I'm sure like them he will be at his best on faster ground. He'd be on my shortlist for the Royal Hunt Cup but last year you needed to be 97 to get in so he needs to win a race to get in there really. I wouldn't be backing at 2/1 or less tomorrow but he's definitely a well handicapped horse imo.

Looks like the world and his wife want to be on Abseil, best price 6/4 with books already.

For example, from my data set for Flat horses, I can set the PV (potential value) to any value and see the returns, but which is best?

In this case these are the following results for different PV figures

PV Fig 0.0 Qualifiers 2484 Winners 380 ROR -1% (the data set)
PV Fig 0.5 Qualifiers 1626 Winners 298 ROR 39%
PV Fig 1.0 Qualifiers 882 Winners 183 ROR 83%
PV Fig 1.5 Qualifiers 481 Winners 114 ROR 131%
PV Fig 2.0 Qualifiers 250 Winners 68 ROR 190%

Perhaps as with every investment, you should trickle funds in (backs) and out (lays) so incremental bets. I saw some data that said that BF prices at 1030 were less efficient than at race start i.e. winners were shorter and losers longer by race time, so an incremental approach would offset some of the market correction?

big syndicates dont bother with the markets until liquidity arrives in the last 10 mins