Clarence House Chase - Somersby 7/1

defo looks overpriced to me

E/W, 7/1 shots doesn't look that brave.

Who cares about being brave? Betting is about calculated risk. The horse runs consistently well at the track so both win and place side of the bet are over priced.

Bravado and betting.  Oh boy. Quick way to the poor house that, No Moves.

The only justification there is for betting ante post surely is if you believe a given horse will trade lower on the day. If you think this horse will be 4/1-7/2, on the day why mess about with each-way? Most people don't back horses who have a chance of a 7/2 contender each-way.

The race could cut up as well, giving you 3 places A/P and maybe only 2 on the day.

Can`t disagree about Somersby. I`ll be interested if Hidden Cyclone comes over.

Quite like hidden cyclone ew at 10s myself and av done - think he is better over 2m than further and his last race reads well in the context of this

I assume he is priced on doubt of participation but shark said yest he was defo travelling over so hope he aint tellin porkies, think he should b half that price and prob will be come race time

Him and Somersby the standout ew value

Captain Conan out

Sire de Grugy, Somersby, Hidden Cyclone, Fox Appeal, Special Tiara, Kauto Stone, Days Hotel, French Opera, Oiseau de Nuit, Lancetto

Declared runners

NO.    HORSE    AGE    WGT    TRAINER RTF%    JOCKEY    OR    TS    RPR
1     123-23    Days Hotel41      9    11-7    Henry De Bromhead     —    139    164
2     3-5221    Fox Appeal29      7    11-7    Emma Lavelle33     152    123    162
3     285-22    French Opera35      11    11-7    Nicky Henderson71     155    137    164
4     F-2132    Hidden Cyclone22    9    11-7    John Joseph Hanlon     —    154    169
5     P7P-55    Kauto Stone42      8    11-7    Paul Nicholls75     153    106    162
6     82421    Lancetto28      9    11-7    Evan Williams50     141    145    154
7     4-5442    Oiseau De Nuit22      12    11-7    Colin Tizzard50     154    149    162
8     1-1211    Sire De Grugy22      8    11-7    Gary Moore67    Jamie Moore     169    165    177
9     34U-12    Somersby42      10    11-7    Mick Channon100     164    155    173
10     513-U3    Special Tiara62      7    11-7    Henry De Bromhead     —    156    168

Depending on the price....I'd have a flutter on days hotel....suppose over 40/1 is out of the question?

Could have had 16s Hidden Cyclone just four days ago.

1     123-23    Days Hotel41      9    11-7    Henry De Bromhead    Richard Johnson     159    139    164
2     F-2132    Hidden Cyclone22 p    9    11-7    John Joseph Hanlon    Andrew J McNamara     155    154    169
3     P7P-55    Kauto Stone42 b      8    11-7    Paul Nicholls75    Sam Twiston-Davies     153    106    162
4     82421    Lancetto28 p      9    11-7    Evan Williams50    Adam Wedge     141    145    154
5     4-5442    Oiseau De Nuit22 t      12    11-7    Colin Tizzard50         154    149    162
6     1-1211    Sire De Grugy22      8    11-7    Gary Moore71    Jamie Moore     169    165    177
7     34U-12    Somersby42      10    11-7    Mick Channon100    Dominic Elsworth     164    155    173

Interesting connections of Hidden Cyclone are saying he is jumping a lot better this season. It always looked as if something was ailing him. His run in the PP was a good effort conceding weight to two improvers.

taken some 9/2 & 4/1, win only on Hidden Cyclone. Missed the eachway punt ante-post but at least he is certain to run now. Never got Somersby right in the past so not going to start backing him now, and Sire De Grugy looked laboured to my eye at Kempton. The form of Hidden Cyclone's races this season look a lot stronger imo.

Andy Mac was on atr this mornin said - he never felt right last season(felt like a sick horse) but is back to his best this year

That would make sense then. Trainers don't usually send them over from Ireland for the PP without believing they'll go close. He just ran into two horses off feather weights that day. Incidentally, where is Colour Squadron? I would also say close form with Benefficient and Arvika is a lot better than beating Oiseau De Nuit and Captain Conan.

hidden cyclone is the danger, agree with sint that SDG looked laboured in beating oiseau de nuit, 5th run this will be, gone to the well once too often imo.... I already have a vested interest in Somersby, so might do HC/Somersby s/f on the day

Going is expected to be Heavy. Is that Somersby's ideal surface? He has won on Soft a couple of times but at a lower level. Most of the others have won on Heavy ground looking at their form.

Baily Green ran well in 2nd today over in Ireland. The race was stronger than usual so i'd see that a little boost for the Hidden Cyclone form.

Course    Ascot
Next Race    Saturday 18th January
Report Date    Friday 17th January; 8:15 am
Going    Heavy

as far as I can see sint Somersby has run just the once on heavy going behind sprinter sacre

17f on Heavy so definitely want something that stays a bit further than 2 miles.

yes see that Alleged. It wasn't a bad run in the circumstances, beat 16 lengths by a great horse around a track which he does not really like.

I think and hope that Sire de Grugy will prove his class on heavy today.

As the saying goes 'there's no such thing as a free lunch'.

Would never have beaten the winner but would surely have been 3rd at worst for the e/w money,

yep, no free lunches in this game. I didn't see the race but fair play to the Moores. Nice to see smaller yards taking the limelight.