Horse Antepost
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Horses for courses, Somersby has won this race in 2012 and was a close 2nd to Master Minded in 2011. Last year it was moved to Cheltenham and he was only 4th. But given his love of this track and based on the form of the Tingle Creek he seems oddly priced at 7/1. Especially as he's been running so well this season, winning the Haldon at Exeter. They seem to believe the key is to have him fresh and I imagine this race has been the target since the Tingle 2nd to Sir De Grugy. Module looks possibly over priced too at 10/1 based on his 2nd to Somersby in the Haldon, but I'm not sure 2m is what he wants despite that run.
1.5pts e/w Somersby 7/1
1.5pts e/w Somersby 7/1
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defo looks overpriced to me
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E/W, 7/1 shots doesn't look that brave.
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Who cares about being brave? Betting is about calculated risk. The horse runs consistently well at the track so both win and place side of the bet are over priced.
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Bravado and betting. Oh boy. Quick way to the poor house that, No Moves.
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The only justification there is for betting ante post surely is if you believe a given horse will trade lower on the day. If you think this horse will be 4/1-7/2, on the day why mess about with each-way? Most people don't back horses who have a chance of a 7/2 contender each-way.
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The race could cut up as well, giving you 3 places A/P and maybe only 2 on the day.
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Can`t disagree about Somersby. I`ll be interested if Hidden Cyclone comes over.
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Quite like hidden cyclone ew at 10s myself and av done - think he is better over 2m than further and his last race reads well in the context of this
I assume he is priced on doubt of participation but shark said yest he was defo travelling over so hope he aint tellin porkies, think he should b half that price and prob will be come race time Him and Somersby the standout ew value |
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Captain Conan out
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Sire de Grugy, Somersby, Hidden Cyclone, Fox Appeal, Special Tiara, Kauto Stone, Days Hotel, French Opera, Oiseau de Nuit, Lancetto
Declared runners |
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NO. HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 123-23 Days Hotel41 9 11-7 Henry De Bromhead — 139 164 2 3-5221 Fox Appeal29 7 11-7 Emma Lavelle33 152 123 162 3 285-22 French Opera35 11 11-7 Nicky Henderson71 155 137 164 4 F-2132 Hidden Cyclone22 9 11-7 John Joseph Hanlon — 154 169 5 P7P-55 Kauto Stone42 8 11-7 Paul Nicholls75 153 106 162 6 82421 Lancetto28 9 11-7 Evan Williams50 141 145 154 7 4-5442 Oiseau De Nuit22 12 11-7 Colin Tizzard50 154 149 162 8 1-1211 Sire De Grugy22 8 11-7 Gary Moore67 Jamie Moore 169 165 177 9 34U-12 Somersby42 10 11-7 Mick Channon100 164 155 173 10 513-U3 Special Tiara62 7 11-7 Henry De Bromhead — 156 168 |
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Depending on the price....I'd have a flutter on days hotel....suppose over 40/1 is out of the question?
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Could have had 16s Hidden Cyclone just four days ago.
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1 123-23 Days Hotel41 9 11-7 Henry De Bromhead Richard Johnson 159 139 164
2 F-2132 Hidden Cyclone22 p 9 11-7 John Joseph Hanlon Andrew J McNamara 155 154 169 3 P7P-55 Kauto Stone42 b 8 11-7 Paul Nicholls75 Sam Twiston-Davies 153 106 162 4 82421 Lancetto28 p 9 11-7 Evan Williams50 Adam Wedge 141 145 154 5 4-5442 Oiseau De Nuit22 t 12 11-7 Colin Tizzard50 154 149 162 6 1-1211 Sire De Grugy22 8 11-7 Gary Moore71 Jamie Moore 169 165 177 7 34U-12 Somersby42 10 11-7 Mick Channon100 Dominic Elsworth 164 155 173 |
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Interesting connections of Hidden Cyclone are saying he is jumping a lot better this season. It always looked as if something was ailing him. His run in the PP was a good effort conceding weight to two improvers.
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taken some 9/2 & 4/1, win only on Hidden Cyclone. Missed the eachway punt ante-post but at least he is certain to run now. Never got Somersby right in the past so not going to start backing him now, and Sire De Grugy looked laboured to my eye at Kempton. The form of Hidden Cyclone's races this season look a lot stronger imo.
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Andy Mac was on atr this mornin said - he never felt right last season(felt like a sick horse) but is back to his best this year
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That would make sense then. Trainers don't usually send them over from Ireland for the PP without believing they'll go close. He just ran into two horses off feather weights that day. Incidentally, where is Colour Squadron? I would also say close form with Benefficient and Arvika is a lot better than beating Oiseau De Nuit and Captain Conan.
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hidden cyclone is the danger, agree with sint that SDG looked laboured in beating oiseau de nuit, 5th run this will be, gone to the well once too often imo.... I already have a vested interest in Somersby, so might do HC/Somersby s/f on the day
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Going is expected to be Heavy. Is that Somersby's ideal surface? He has won on Soft a couple of times but at a lower level. Most of the others have won on Heavy ground looking at their form.
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Baily Green ran well in 2nd today over in Ireland. The race was stronger than usual so i'd see that a little boost for the Hidden Cyclone form.
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Course Ascot
Next Race Saturday 18th January Report Date Friday 17th January; 8:15 am Going Heavy |
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as far as I can see sint Somersby has run just the once on heavy going behind sprinter sacre
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17f on Heavy so definitely want something that stays a bit further than 2 miles.
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yes see that Alleged. It wasn't a bad run in the circumstances, beat 16 lengths by a great horse around a track which he does not really like.
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I think and hope that Sire de Grugy will prove his class on heavy today.
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As the saying goes 'there's no such thing as a free lunch'.
Would never have beaten the winner but would surely have been 3rd at worst for the e/w money, |
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yep, no free lunches in this game. I didn't see the race but fair play to the Moores. Nice to see smaller yards taking the limelight.
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