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**Betfair Hurdle**

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Replies: 161
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 06 Feb 14 18:03
when the 2011 renewal was re-scheduled at Newbury the following Friday in 2011, the entries reverted to the five day confirmation stage - this meant that antepost bets stood.

I think I read somewhere that if a race is re-scheduled at a different venue (as opposed to the same venue in the case above), the entries are re-opened because the race conditions have changed.

100% certain on the first sentence above but not on the second one, in any event the answer will depend on when and where it's rescheduled.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 06 Feb 14 18:08
From ATR site:

Excellent drainage is helping the course at Newbury deal with the wet weather as the valuable Betfair Hurdle meeting approaches on Saturday.

While the ground is described as heavy after rain on Thursday, a forecast for a dry Friday is timely before showers return.

"We've had rain and are due for a bit more, but not too much more," said clerk of the course Richard Osgood.

"At the moment we've got no problems, especially if we get a nice dry day (on Friday) which they are talking about - with this place when you get a day's drying it can do wonders.

"We've got gravel underneath us and it seems to go straight through it.

"Then we are forecast showers on Saturday, but not heavy ones we are being told at the moment unless it changes again."


He's very bullish, he'll be calling it Good to Firm by Saturday morning at this rate. Grin
By:
gamerawins
When: 06 Feb 14 18:11
Cheers.

Yeah, I would guess the money is done if it rescheduled and a horse doesn't run.

Remember those Lingfield & Kempton AW meets abandoned about a month ago due to fog? Some races were rescheduled (for same venue) and the races were re-opened.

Oh well.

I think it will go ahead. Fresh ground and all that, plus the wind. And this is such a big day I think if they need to cancel earlier races for the big two to go ahead then I think they will do so.

Best of luck.
By:
CVByrne
When: 06 Feb 14 18:40
Very good point sint, antepost prices being lost. Totally slipped my mind that one. Just seemed to be loads of won't be on etc.. every season for a lot of meetings that are on.

Think it's because it's such a definitive statement, maybe if it was "it's in danger of being abandoned" or "it may not be on" it wouldn't catch my. Ah I'm just ramgling to myself really Laugh

Think Newbury are very confident of it being on due to dry windy Friday.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 07 Feb 14 09:24
Backed Vendor a couple of weeks back and have saved on Recession Proof and Alavain after final decs.

Good luck - assuming it beats the weather.
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Feb 14 09:40
Inspection tomorrow.
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Feb 14 11:04
Looking ahead to the big one, Alan said:"This race has long been Vendor’s target. He won over two and a half at the Hennessy meeting, so it is a drop back in trip, but I do not think that will be a problem for him and a strong run race on testing ground could play to his strengths.

"Montbazon worked very well last week with First Mohican, so the latter's victory at Doncaster is a timely boost. It was encouraging that we were able to get him back on the grass this week and he did another serious piece of work. However, he has been off the track for 697 days, and it is a very difficult race to start him back, though I have to get him out somewhere.
By:
IDKW
When: 07 Feb 14 12:27
Surely DELL 'ARCA is the one here.
Won the Greatwood a bit more comfortably than the 1/2L winning margin suggests, and was still travelling very comfortably when brought down 3 out in the Ladbroke.

Should and will be FAV IMO, and will be very disappointed should he not go close.
By:
dunlaying
When: 07 Feb 14 14:27
I have backed Alaivan for buttons at big odds. He is no value at 12/1 unless he shows his old County Hurdle form.
But for those who like a flutter at big odds maybe you should try Poet.He is likely to be in the van ,loves the ground,has no weight and it is just possible that he has been hiding his light under a bushel.He has some fancy flat form .
I have had a small bet on him.
By:
BlueBoy
When: 07 Feb 14 15:30
Fascinating posts as always on this bit of the Forum. Just came on to post up that i have been backing Poet, fwiw, since dec's were made,and note dunlaying also fancies it. Having my biggest bet of the jump season so far on it, for the reasons eloquently described above.

What can go wrong?

Happy Punting

BB
By:
Millerracing67
When: 07 Feb 14 15:33
Plenty of the wet stuff due overnight Sad
Will be very surprised if the meetings on imo Sad
By:
gamerawins
When: 07 Feb 14 15:55
I'm worried about the form of the Nicholls horses.

11 of the last 13 favorites that the yard has sent out have been beaten and of the two that won, one of them was a 1/3 shot.

He was in blinding form a month a ago but looking less so now.

I still think FW is the one. If he is right he will plough through that ground, has one of the highest knee actions I've ever seen!

If you want one though that will definitely run it's race and definitely go close then go for Cheltenian. Will be on the premises 100%.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 07 Feb 14 16:28
Yep, I've just noticed the form of the Nicholls horses - but form figures for Hobbs last 9 runners prior to today is FF555PP44!

Time to get off the pot, I will stick with Recession Proof (ew) and am also tempted by a small ew interest on First Avenue.

If you just use the weights and measures, First Avenue makes little appeal as he is 7 lbs higher than when he won the Imperial Cup and also has a conditional riding who can only claim 7lbs as opposed to the 10lb Adams claimed when he won at Sandown.

But....

he absolutely hosed up at Sandown in similar conditions,admittedly not done much since but the P at the Festival 6 days after his massive effort at Sandown is understandable, the P at Stratford in September could have been ground related and he just tootled around at the back at Kempton the other day.

He actually improved his flat rating by a couple of lbs during the summer and the only good race he has run since the Imperial Cup was when running into a place at 40/1 in the Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot so he clearly relishes big field handicaps with a premium on stamina. His stable is in very decent form too.

Hardly a conclusive case but he's 50/1! Just feel he is likely to outrun those odds.

Good luck,all!
By:
sintonian
When: 07 Feb 14 16:31
sticking with Vendor and small stakes on FW. Oddly I am put off FW by the fact it will be PFN's third horse to return from ulcer treatment. Can all 3 really win off the back of that? Remarkable if so.
By:
gamerawins
When: 07 Feb 14 16:42
Yeah, tbh I've been worried about Nicholls horses since Argento weekend. Several ran poor that day whereas the previous few weekends most of his were running blinders, the yard was thriving on mass. But with the exceptions of Saphir Du Rheu & Lac Fontana (and perhaps Mr Mole) no horse from that yard has really ran a blinder or looked like it was thriving since Argento weekend.

Look, things change quickly. They can't all win all the time. Everything is probably fine but I was a bit surprised on Argento weekend and nothing since has changed that view.

As for Hobbs: I would be less worried. The whole yard has been thriving for several months. Captain Chris, Planet of Sound, Wishful Thinking, the Beecher winner (can't think of name) all great winners. It's when you see old timers like that who looked on the way down, come out and all win that's when you know a yard is really really thriving. Not to mention all the other horses that are progressing also. True the last few runners were poor but it's too small a sample to suggest the form is gone. The Nicholls sample is probably too small also, but it is longer since several of his have been running blinders.
By:
SOULDANCER
When: 07 Feb 14 17:20
Recession Proof, 25-1 1st 4, 22-1 1st 5. E.w. for me, travelling well enough when fell 3 out in Ladbroke. Claimer takes 3lb off now, likes the soft and could improve, had only 7 hurdle runs.
By:
gamerawins
When: 07 Feb 14 18:14
I don't get how people can fancy Recession Proof tbh.

Can't see how an 8 year old who won as a 2 year old can still be open to improvement after over 2 years off the track. He hasn't shown any form whatsoever in almost 3 years and has ran 4 times since the summer, weakening badly every time despite the yard being in good form for all those runs. It is was much too far from home the last day to suggest he had any chance of finishing close up.

Also very hard to win a race like this twice. Sure Geos did but he was very classy and a previous Grade 1 winner as well as 4th in a previous Champion Hurdle. Unlike Recession Proof he also had recent form finishing 2nd in the Fighting Fifth the time before.

I remember it well. I had him backed at 20/1. Backed him 3 times in the weeks before expecting him to be backed into fav, but no one came for him. Got up on the line to beat Rooster Booster. I watched it in a Paddy Power shop with about 100 other people and they were all on the Rooster who was fav and had won the previous Champion Hurdle. Everyone had him backed and roared him home after the last, then Geos came from the clouds and nabbed him. The whole place groaned and gushed into silence. I never said a word. Walked out with the biggest smile you never seen :)
By:
mac99
When: 07 Feb 14 21:55
RP won   this three years ago and then went on to  run a good fifth in the Supreme  , if near that form he is placed for sure, but Dell arca at current odds maybe the one to be on  , the Pipe Stable usually go for it  in these big Handicaps , even on testing ground , very good ew shout at the price imo
By:
duffy
When: 08 Feb 14 02:20
Ill be having a little bit on vasco at big odds e/w, there wasn't much between him and irish saint last year...don't know what the hold up has been though..probably find out tomorrow afternoon Grin
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 08 Feb 14 07:35
Good man duffy.

I am going to look stupid later but i make this a 4 horse race:

Far West
Irish Saint
Vasco Du Ronceray
Dell ' Arca

all the rest are not good enough on what they have shown so far.
By:
HaylingBilly
When: 08 Feb 14 09:20
Montbazon for me. 700 days off the track. OR down to 140. Stable jockey on in preference to Vendor.  Been Vendor target all season. I smell a Kingo plot………………or I just don't have a clue so looking for a wild card…….BlushBlushBlush
By:
dunlaying
When: 08 Feb 14 11:15
There is precious little value left now but Prompter @ 100/1 with Stan James and Young Vic is too big.
The horse has never been out of the first four over jumps and although it is hard to see him winning, a place is not out of the question.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 08 Feb 14 12:01
Cheltenian & Far West for small ££ for me in a tough race in bad ground Plain
Gd luck all Cool
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 08 Feb 14 12:39
First Avenue non runner so I have gone with Cheltenian 10/1 ew and Recession Proof 28/1 ew.

A bit of a lottery in the conditions, Cheltenian the potentially the least exposed horse in the race with the possible exception of Montbazon who has been off an awful long time.

With regard to Recession Proof, he might not need to improve but rather return to his 2011 level when he won this off the same mark.

The only one of his runs since his return from injury which was discouraging for me was his effort in the Cesarewitch but that was a strange race where the winner got left 15 lengths at the start so perhaps they went too fast. The handicap hurdle he ran in at Cheltenham was over a trip in excess of 3 miles and he was n't given a hard race.

It's true that at Ascot it was too early to know whether he'd play a hand in the finish and you're entitled to be sceptical given the way the first two pulled clear - on the other hand he was still going OK and there were plenty in behind already struggling.

Anyway, today's the day we find out.

Good luck!
By:
sintonian
When: 08 Feb 14 14:44
SPlash of ginge .. someone put that up on here at 100/1? Cant see who. Nice one.
By:
penzance
When: 08 Feb 14 14:55
whoever
wd
GL
By:
Facts
When: 08 Feb 14 16:15
CVByrne     06 Feb 14 18:15


Far West, Alaivan both e/w and smaller bets Splash of Ginge & Chris Pea Green (cliff horse)



Well done CV !
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 08 Feb 14 18:34
wd ginge backers !

My brother backed it as he idolises NTD and has a ginger daughter, plus he had the forecast, should have had the tricast too.

My 4, one nr 3 of them were in the top 5 jumping the last.

Made my day when Far West got up, i was sat 2 seats away from the owners today. Happy scenes.
By:
dunlaying
When: 08 Feb 14 19:49
Very well done for finding that one.
By:
CVByrne
When: 08 Feb 14 23:43
Cheers all, just seems like NTD is getting a wee bit sly with his horses. He's got me two this season
By:
stevo1
When: 09 Feb 14 00:41
He obviously fancied it as was at Warwick,like stable jockey who has ridden it last 4 times lol. Well done Cv Festival not too far off now.
By:
Tucho
When: 09 Feb 14 03:14
Carl Llewellyn, assistant to Twiston-Davies, said: "We did think he had a better chance than his price. He was six lengths behind Irving at Ascot and that was favourite and he would have been better off at the weights so that gave him some hope. He went off in front until Act Of Kalanisi took it off him but he does stay well."

---

Twiston-Davies was at Warwick with his son Sam instead of Newbury.

"I was thinking of having a go at a bit of the 40-1, but it was a competitive event and you can't ever be too hopeful," he told Racing UK.

"Sam wanted to come here because he didn't think he could win and thought he would have better chances, so it's terrible for him, but he's got a great bunch of owners and he won't be lacking for support.


Haha, classic NTD pretending he didn't back it. Laugh
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 09 Feb 14 10:10
yes, well done CV - nice form frank for Irving and Deputy Dan.
By:
Millerracing67
When: 09 Feb 14 14:33
Nice pick on winner who had to be given an ew chance pre-race, well done.
Did pay to be handy yest on that ground.
Great to see Far West get up from what looked a bad fall Happy
Will be looking out for Cheltenian on hopefully better ground at Chelts come March.
County Hdle would be my hope for him, a gd hcap to be won with him on gd/ish ground.
By:
CVByrne
When: 10 Feb 14 17:58
Far West go Imperial Cup then Martin Pipe with Derham keeping ride for both?
By:
shockster
When: 10 Feb 14 18:07
Will be some horse if he pulls it off.  That was a really nasty fall in the Betfair and was glad to see him get up.  The ability is there though.
By:
sintonian
When: 12 Feb 14 07:53
Vendor for the Coral cup imo. Was out the back all the way and impossible to make ground on that going. He stays further and trainer has a good record in the race.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 09 Mar 14 17:49
I just read that SOG ran the race in over 4 secs faster than MTOY did.
By:
sintonian
When: 11 Mar 14 20:38
As stated back in Feb .. hope to get some money back on Vendor tomorrow.
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 11 Mar 14 21:12
Feel sorry for you sint and the new one, you picked the best horse and was very unlucky.


Still cant have Vendor mind, good luck.
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