International Hurdle, Cheltenham

I would have thought Zarkandar but after that the list may be very thin of potential real rivals. Would they be tempted to bring over Annie Power?

It has been mooted.

Gemix bein aimed here

Relkeel aint it?

Wrong Frenchie - meant Seabreeze d'Ho

Sounds like it could be a bit of a non event. Hopefully Willie will send Annie over. Would be an interesting match up then.

I assume it's been reopened due to lack of entries?

Mullins said he was looking for 2m 4f race for Annie Power and mentioned a couple of possible targets in Ireland over Christmas, no indication from Ruby Walsh on Racing UK either that Annie Power would be entered.

So TNO, Zarkander?, Hendo might be tempted to put Rolling Star in?, what's happening with Rock On Ruby? - Un De Sceaux from left field?

I'm grasping at straws in the hope of a competitive contest.

Ruby did say on RUK earlier that Mullins will be sending horses over for Cheltenham this weekend,although no mention of which ones.
Be great if Un de Sceaux or Annie Power came over for this race.
I do fear though another small field with no decent opposition for TNO, and as I will be there on my 1st visit for donkeys years that would be very disappointing.

I'd love to see un des sceaux......I don't care where though I'd just love to see him somewhere

just noticed Rolling Star is in the Relkeel.

yeh,know what you mean mate,ive backed him for the CHurdle.

1     1212-1    The New One55      5    11-8    Nigel Twiston-Davies46         167    129    172
2     1141-2    Zarkandar21      6    11-8    Paul Nicholls79    Daryl Jacob     167    151    171
3     4-F111    Albert Hall10F      8    11-4    A Chaille-Chaille         133    —    136
4     411-87    Court Minstrel27      6    11-4    Evan Williams50         149    141    162
5     62881S    Hawkhill21      7    11-4    Tim Vaughan23         132    120    142
6     2/2110    Seabreeze D´Ho27    7    11-4    Christian Le Galliard         140    —    139
7     16-061    Jumps Road9    6    11-0    Colin Tizzard38         131    125    144

Stan James go 8/13 The New One, 7/4 Zarkander, 10's bar.

I wont be earning much xmas money on Saturday then....

To answer my own question about Rock on Ruby earlier in the thread, he's entered in a novice chase at Plumpton next Monday.

Can anyone shed any light on the 2 french horses?

Rock on ruby going chasing!!!Another gamble gone west! Thought this years C.H. would have been set up perfectly for him!..Wrong!

Rock On Ruby would have had his ideal conditions in this race, the horse has not been well campaigned since his champion hurdle win. Kempton to Plumpton

Ideal conditions yes but unlikely to have reversed form with TNO, imo.

Well,not the field I was hoping for,but at least The New One I get to see.
Just hope both he and Zarkandar run!!

Agree he would struggle to beat TNO but it would give him a much better chance than at  kempton where they have taken the defeat far too seriously, like it was the end of his hurdling career.

Shame it's just Zark vs TNO I was hoping to see a new test for TNO as the form of what he's done so far is hardly being franked.

AFC, RTW & Zarkandar all beaten in G1 or G2 company this season. Jezki and Diakali beat RTW quite a way in the Hattons Grace and along with the rest of the Neptune field looking rather average group at best.


Seems we probably won't learn too much about TNO until the Champion Hurdle. But Zarkandar is decent yardstick. You'd expect TNO to win well over this trip on this ground especially as Zark won't be aided by blinkers this time.

I've a feeling Zarkandar will be aimed at the Champion Hurdle this season again, make all in blinkers and try steal some lengths on them like Celestial Halo tried in 2009

Hard to disagree with any of that but I did feel RTW was given a 'considerate' ride in the Hatton's Grace - I'm certainly not claiming he would have had a chance of winning if Russell had asked for more but rather wondering why they bothered to run him in the first place.

Think it possible the bounce factor had something to do with the run of RTW .

An abysmal turnout at 5-day stage, Stan James deserve much better for stumping up a good prize for the event.

The result will be pointless for Festival clues, unless someone burns up the track and mimics the fast pace of a Champion Hurdle which is unlikely.

Will be there as usual, I am a massive Hurdles Fan, and the Champion is my favourite race of the year, I look forward to the International as the only definitive pre-Cheltenham Festival Champion Hurdle trial at the track, bur this year I have far more interest on the other hurdles races over the 2 days.

Maybe we are relying on Ireland to produce the pre-March clashes this year, at the home team seem intent on avoiding each other at all costs.

RTW was reported to have had a leg infection prior to the Hattons Grace, they wanted to run him again after his seasonal debut but couldn't. Possibly not his true running.

bud I think the bounce factor is a thing of the past, modern training has as much as I can tell eradicated. Also don't see why he would have bounced anyway. His injury was minor and didn't keep him out of racing as it occured at the seasons end. I'm not saying it was certainly his running though.

Just I don't fully understand TNO's position in the Champion Hurdle betting, he lost to AFC and Zarkandar either side of defeating RTW last season. Rock on Ruby had the first time blinkers benefit in the Champion Hurdle and has run terrible in all his runs elsewhere since he won the Champion Hurdle.

That's before we get to the fact TNO sire is King Theatre, who is known for siring staying chasers. I think he's another Menorah tbh, one who will find the old course and 2m of a champion hurdle a bit too quick for him. I imagine he'll fill out this season more into the chaser mould.

But like Menorah back in 2011 he's one I can't really get a confident opinion on. I don't really need to either because he will always be far too short to even contemplate backing. One to go out and prove it in March, but I don't think he will.

Deep I wouldnt rely on Ireland providing you with this clash. It appears no one anywhere wants to take anyone one. All grade ones either have one very good horse against trees or a substandard field. The Betfair chase was the exception although not certain many were cherry-ripe. £74K to the International winner and prorata for the placings - the owners have too much money

Incorrect Arkle, I'm near certain bar injury you'll see 3 of the top 5 in the Champion Market take eachother on twice before Cheltenham at Leopardstown at xmas and in Jan.

I hope youre correct CV but I can imagine something happening to one or two of them it will too hot or too cold or two wet or too dry - they will think of something. If they meet at Christmas I can imagine a bubble or two bursting.

There's no other races for them to run in tbh. Maybe Our Conor will dodge the race to get a run over hurdles in first before going in a Grade 1. But you'd imagine JP will pitch Jezki in aginst Fly now.

Well JP has two contenders so he needs to find out if they can compete. I agree there would be logic in Our Connor skipping HF for his first run and can see that happening. Leaving out Annie Power if any of the five other main contenders meet before the CH I can see bubbles bursting big time. Most of last years novice form is very much unproven as of now. Time may prove that one or two is/are brilliant. I remain to be convinced.

Saying TNO is not good enough based on his defeats to AFC and Zark is far to simplistic. If TNO is a champion hurdle horse, which he seemingly is given his change of pace and the way he is being campaigned, then it's not really much of a surprise he gets beaten over 21f on Heavy ground by a stayer AFC is it, particularly when you can see the jockey went for home to soon and is on record as saying so. Using TNO's defeat to Zark as reason to crab him is also baffling. I don't know why but anyone who hasn't backed him for March finds it difficult to see or admit he was a novice when that race happened. It's almost as if any potential improvement is not probable. I read that opinion time and again on here.

That's the puzzling thing about the Churdle,or one of them!!
The potential improvement of 4 of the 5 fancied horses,plus Annie Power and Un De Sceaux as well.
Makes it really difficult to be confident about 1 horse, especially as the English are not taking each other on.

Sint who said TNO wasn't good enough? I said I don't understand his position in the market is all, Neptune form isn't working out and he beat little imo in RoR on soft fto. Triumph & Supreme form working out much better. Also TNO is bred to be a staying chaser and he'll strengthen and get bigger this season and we've seen in recent years the chasers in the making find one or two hurdlers too quick.

Thing is we're talking about the Champion Hurdle favourite here!! Best priced 4/1 antepost price. When Jezki, MTOY, Fly, Our Conor you've got 1,1,0,0 losses over 2m hurdle races with them since beginning of last season.

I likened TNO to Menorah, both are by King Theatre, Menorah went Fav after winning the international in 2010 and he's now a quality 2m5-3m on a sharp track chaser. Binocular, Hurricane Fly et el are out and out hurdlers never ever could see a fence. Race favours the flat bred in recent years RoR being the blip.

But to bring back to my actual point, given what TNO has done, his breeding 4/1 is too short an antepost price and he likely won't see anything resembling a Champion Hurdle horse until the day he runs in it in March.

I've no idea if he is good enough though but his price will never be near a price I'd ever consider backing so he'll burn me in March Rock on Ruby style or he'll lose. I won't be backing him.

I think im right in saying he beat ROR on good to soft fto, so emphatically , that ROR  is now going novice chasing, imo that speaks volumes and I think ROR was trained to give hIs best that day and he just wasn't in the same parish as TNO

If TNO beats Zarkandar the way he beat ROR , Hurricane Flys 2013 Champion Hurdle form will be ripped to shreds.

Speaks nothing like volumes. In fact, it underlines what a non event Kempton was. No secret at all that ROR's camp have been bitterly disappointed with him since the Champion and have even said his breathing's so bad, they won't run him on anything like soft again. Agree completely with CVByrne. Folly to say that TNO can't win the Champion, but extremely strange to see him at such a short price to do so. Everyone bangs on about his speed, yet its completely unproven; never run over 2 miles except against ROR, and his blinding speed at Cheltenham was over 2m5f and against three mile hurdlers designate. And, as I've said before on other threads, Thousand Star's proximity at Aintree shows just how much he needs to improve for another year on his back and a drop in trip.

it does speak volumes if you saw the harry fry interview earlier

Hurricane Fly beats ROR 8 lengths at Punchestown, no one questions it. TNO beats him 10 lengths eased down at Kempton and apparently ROR was not his best that day, needed the run, couldn't breathe etc. The last time ROR ran at Kempton prior to that race he had actually finished a neck 2nd to Binocular in the Christmas Hurdle. The fact is, Kempton is the quickest 2m course in the country and it would not have suited both horses. The excuses put forward for ROR that day remind me a lot of what Peddlers Cross supporters came out with when he got spanked by Sprinter Sacre, funnily enough at Kempton too.


CV, I take the opposite view. I think he has done enough to justify his price.The form is rock solid to my mind. AFC won two Grade1s after beating TNO. In the context of novice form at the time it was exceptional. Using it as a guide 6 months later when we are dealing with novices stepping up into open company is not a solid angle to come from in my opinion. Rolling Star may have come out and won since his Triumph run to boost Our Conor's form but it is quite possible he did not run his race that day, he was beaten 23 lengths! The trainer is adamant he was going through a growth period, hence his poor run at Aintree, too.

The supreme form is strong, I would agree with that, but then that's why TNO & MTOY are joint favs. TNO has form with horses in open company MTOY does not, Zark etc, from when he was a novice. People can underrate it if they like but we had an example just recently of a similar situation where a novice produced a high rating in open company, he was claimed to have been flattered by his new rating etc etc, but then he comes out and wins the Tingle Creek, Sire De Grugy.

Fwiw, in the context of the staying division, I don't rate AFC that highly. Think Willie Mullins has better and then there is Solwhit. No need to mention Big Bucks as he is the best there has been it just depends if he is now the same horse.

Have not had a bet on any of the horses at the top of the market, and that's purely cos they all have too much to prove to me at the price they are,or have been thus far.
That's with the exception of Hfly of course,who has nothing to prove except being as good as he has been over the last few years,and quiet honestly until he does actually start showing that he aint as good,he probably should be fav.
Ive got a couple at big odds like Annie Power and Un de Sceaux,and that's where I will be sticking till a heck of a lot nearer the day by the looks of it

Our Conor - cant be backed - 5yr old, aint had a race yet over hurdles this season, price too short
 
TNO- Cant be backed - Only form at 2m out of novice company is hugely suspect, rest of form against stayers, price too short.

MTOY- Cant be backed - no form in the book that's good enough to warrant current price.
 
Jezki Cant be backed - Cheltenham? again no form in the book that's good enough to warrant current price.

Of course one can take a chance that one of these will be better than the rest,on a gut feeling perhaps, but it would be a guess at this stage. Guessing? at those prices??...no thanks.

I have a gut feeling that TNO might be the best out of those and that's purely cos I like the combination of speed and stamina,but the problem I have is I aint sure how much speed he has!! And the price aint big enough to make me pay to find out.

Hurricane Fly beats ROR 8 lengths at Punchestown, no one questions it. TNO beats him 10 lengths eased down at Kempton and apparently ROR was not his best that day, needed the run, couldn't breathe etc.

The difference here is Hurricane Fly was already proven, he had lost one race in like 3 years and had rakes of Grade 1 wins including 2 champion hurdles. TNO is as yet unproven and we can only rate him on what he has faced so far.

Rock on Ruby was thumped by Zarkandar fto last season. Zark was well beaten 4th in the Champion Hurdle then. For me Rock on Ruby has had the first time blinkers effect at his track the old course at Cheltenham in March and aside from that he's been poor, should be 4 comprehensive defeats by Zark, Darlan, Fly and TNO.

Punjabi, Katchit & Sublimity are Champion Hurdlers who's form never got close to their winning performance. So trying to rate TNO on RoR is not enough, the horse is on a downgrade.

Personally I try to get 3 pieces of form that hold up a horses chances for the Champion hurdle. What's common is the focus to go on one race and one performance. Take My Tent or Yours winning betfair hurdle in Feb and people quoting him as 2nd fav for the Champion hurdle!!!

Cut through the hype and look at the form is what I try to do these days.

Also a factor in my opinion on TNO is mainly the novice form, I thought AFC 4/1 for World Hurdle was without doubt the worst antepost odds I've ever seen. The horses he beat not doing much since.

Then TNO beat horses who've let the form down since in the Neptune. The lost to Champion Hurdle 4th and 1l ahead of Thousand Stars. Yet they hype wagon for this horse was into over drive over the summer and heavy odds on he won against a horse on a massive downward spiral in Rock on Ruby. Yet he's fav for the Champion Hurdle a Champion that has 4 very high quality rivals in it all unexposed really.

Add to that Kings Theatre as his sire, a staying chaser sire. Not for me. Will be interesting how he gets on against Zarkandar though, especially as that rival is coming back in trip and not wearing blinkers so you'd have to expect an impressive reversal of the Aintree form at the least.

We'll find out something more on Saturday I hope.

is it known that Zarkandar not wearing blinkers on Sat?

CVByrne
10 Dec 13 22:52
Joined:
14 Mar 06
| Topic/replies: 3,699 | Blogger: CVByrne's blog
bud I think the bounce factor is a thing of the past, modern training has as much as I can tell eradicated. Also don't see why he would have bounced anyway. His injury was minor and didn't keep him out of racing as it occured at the seasons end. I'm not saying it was certainly his running though.



some strange stuff written on this thread...

cv byrne what in your opinion has changed in regards the bounce factor?? or what has been eradicated in the modern training of horses to stop it occurring??

very interested to know as don't agree it has been eradicated as you put it??

or lets put it another way...in your opinion what causes the bounce factor?

I thought it was when a horse comes back from injury and runs well, and then next time runs below par as the horse has put so much into his 1st race back, not sure it has to be necessary to have a long lay off.
May be wrong though, and not sure anyone knows for certain what causes it.
Thought it may have happened with Melodic R the other week as well.

it doesn't relate to every injury in the book Budde. It's more related to serious injurys and the prolonged layoff thereafter in order for the horse to recover.

Don't think that the Neptune form is that bad. Taquin is clearly a decent enough horse, Rule the World won next time out before being beaten on ground that I doubt would have suited him. Pont hasn't even run yet. Rock on Ruby thrashing, easy to say the horse is on the downgrade now he has been hammered, before that it was less clear cut.

Agree though that beating Zarkander here is a must if TNO can be considered a real CH prospect. The odds of 8/1 TNO compared to everything else being 6/1 at the start of the year were wrong and maybe there has been too much of an adjustment the other way. We will see post Saturday how good he might be

If ROR is on a massive downward spiral then what difference does it make if it's HF beating him 2 & 8 lengths or TNO beating him 10 lengths? The form amounts to the same thing, and that's why the prices are the way they are.

stick my neck out here and suggest HF is on the downward spiral, having backed the horse the last 3 years it pains me to say it but the close proximity of marito an MDH doesn't exude confidence imo and  midnight game was only 7 lengths behind and he has been described by his trainer as short of top class and will be aimed at conditional hurdles, I can see jezki being 2nd fav for churdle after xmas fixtures, just my opinion of course....

I think HF needs his first run,last year he may well have lost fto to go native-if I remember correctly.
still went on to win the Churdle.
its possible he may be regressing,i don't think he was as good in the CH this year as he was when he won it,but hes still the one that they all have to improve past.
imo he should be fav.

Think its difficult to make a hard opinion about HF at this stage. It's a shame that all the Irish horses seem to be dodging each other, would be nice to know how good Our Conner actually is, or Jezki. Fly has tended to come on for the run, he wasn't wildly impressive against Go native the year before. Would be interested to see one or all of them turn up in the Irish Champion or Festival hurdle.

The prices I still feel should be about 5/1 HF, 5/1 TNO, 5/1 MTOY. I would actually make OC the outsider of the 5 at this stage maybe around the 11/2 or 6/1 mark as I always like to see a horse come on

*outsider of the 4

I've been place laying Our Conor since he ran on the flat, but only £25 or so appears at a time.

As far as I can remember the origins of the bounce factor is from America where if a horse suddenly did performance that warranted a speed rating
significantly above what he had done before he would then be a candidate for the bounce factor because of the amount of energy he used.
So his next run could be poor but after that could then bounce back to do the high speed figure again.

thats kind of similar to my idea,in that a lot of effort in one run can result in a below par effort next time.

that is correct i believe tinkler

i think you can interpret the bounce factor in many ways tbh...but it does come down to the horses exertion and his running next time...quite often those exertions just cannot be backed up by the said horse...the yanks call it the bounce factor...over here it is more used with horses returning from a break/problem

i am strong believer in the bounce factor as have seen so many horses blow out after running so well previously...horses coming off the lay off/big performance quite often exert themselves more than meets the eye but the said horse doesn't know he is just out for the run, then struggles to back up (hurting?)...melodic rendezdous is a prime example in this case as budd says...it wouldn't surprise me if melodic is a bleeder but that would be speculating

i have lots of theories but it certainly isn't just on horses coming in off a lay off/problem i do believe when horses exert themselves to its maximum it will be tough to back up...some can do it but others struggle...it is dependent on the horse but i always thought when hawk wing won the lockinge he had overly exerted himself even though he won by the length of the track he put plenty in, then bounced at ascot on much faster ground...he was hurting imo...frankel after he won the guineas struggled in the SJP at ascot... did he bounce??

anyway jumps is harder for me on this subject as prefer flat but horses backing up quickly imo is always a recipe to be wary especially when dealing with a horse who has gone into the red...

interesting subject tbh

There seems to plenty of off shouts from the original Theory Harry most of which sound plausible to me.
  A collective bounce factor could be the Cheltenham Festival where horses go deeper than they have been at any time during the season resulting
in a lot then putting in poor efforts ,due to their exertions, at Aintree. Though interestingly horses deteriorating from Cheltenham to Aintree doesn't
seem as significant as it used to be, possibly due to the drainage being so effective at Cheltenham that nowadays the ground isn't as soft as it used
to be ,leaving the horses with a bit more energy for Aintree.

Ive always looked at that as being simply horses are trained to peak at Cheltenham,and are then over the top for Aintree. Some Trainers have a go at both hoping their horse is still at their peak, over the years some have pulled it off a lot have not.

Sounds feasible, Budd. Could be an amalgamation of a few different factors.

Nigel Twiston-Davies believes The New One is not yet at his physical peak as he puts his huge reputation on the line in the StanJames.com International Hurdle at Cheltenham on Saturday.

The five-year-old was a brilliant winner of the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival in the spring and signed off his campaign when narrowly beaten by Zarkandar in the Aintree Hurdle.

He is long odds-on to turn the tables on the same rival this weekend, having annihilated 2012 Champion Hurdle hero Rock On Ruby on his seasonal return at Kempton in October.

While Twiston-Davies has been pleased with his stable star since, he is anticipating further improvement between now and the Champion Hurdle in March.

"All has been fine since Kempton. We've had no problems at all with him," said the Naunton handler.

"I don't think he'll improve for the run at Kempton, as we haven't done a lot with him since, but I'm very pleased with him at home and we're looking forward to running him.

"This isn't the Champion Hurdle, so I expect he will improve again for this run and we'll get this out of the way before we make any other plans.

"There is rain forecast, but that doesn't worry me. As long as it's not firm he's fine."

The trainer's son Sam has been ever-present in the saddle during The New One's 11-race career and feels he has now got to know the youngster inside out.

"You always look into the race, you'd be amazed at the amount of research Nigel and myself do into the other horses," the jockey told At The Races.

"With horses like this you get one chance and we don't want to mess it up, so we'll be very prepared and hopefully it will go smoothly.

"We're trying not to throw everything at the wall in one go, so we can give him a nice season.

"He's the best I've ridden, he does everything so easily at home and even at the races it's amazing how much boot he has, even off a good gallop. He's very impressive.

"The slight chink he has is that he has one burst of speed. At Cheltenham's Trials meeting last year I went for him and he went but then in the last 100 yards he was trying to hang on, so I was angry with myself that we got beat that day.

"I know how to ride him now. I'd be quite confident I know what to do and when to do it."

The Paul Nicholls-trained Zarkandar is as consistent as they come and ran a perfectly respectable race on his return to action when conceding lumps of weight to exciting mare Annie Power in the Ascot Hurdle last month.

Nicholls is expecting his six-year-old to strip fitter for that run and has questioned the form of The New One's devastating Kempton display.

"He'll definitely improve from that run at Ascot, which might prove to have been an impossible task giving the filly 11lb," said the Ditcheat handler.

"I thought we tied up a little bit from the back of the last. Our horses have all just improved for a run and been carrying too much condition and he's definitely sharper for that run.

"He's not been beaten on the new track (New Course) at Cheltenham, it suits him much better than the old one that the Champion Hurdle is run on.

"The New One is a decent horse, but I don't know about the Kempton form. He looked good on the day, but we'll know more on Saturday."

Court Minstrel is third in the betting for the Grade Two contest, but some way adrift of the big two.

The six-year-old ran creditably when seventh in last month's Greatwood Hurdle at Prestbury Park, but trainer Evan Williams admits third place is probably the best he can hope for this weekend.

"He has been in flying form since the Greatwood and I thought he ran a really good race under top-weight - I was delighted with him," said Williams.

"We hoped at the start of the season that he had progressed from last year, but he hasn't and that is what he is. He is in very good form though and his work has been as good as it's ever been.

"If we finish third, I will be very happy and just to be running in a race with the likes of The New One and Zarkandar is brilliant.

"He is impossible to place now because he has been beaten in two handicaps this season and hasn't been dropped a pound.

"The positives on Saturday are that the ground will be perfect for him, the small field will suit and we are running for a lot of money."

Colin Tizzard's Jumps Road won a decent handicap at Wincanton little over a week ago and is another horse looking to pick up a share of the huge prize-money on offer.

The trainer's son and stable jockey Joe is hoping the six-year-old gives talented rider Brendan Powell a good spin.

Tizzard jnr said: "The race has cut up, so we decided to give it a go.

"There is some nice prize-money on offer. We're not expecting to challenge The New One, but if he can pick up some of the prize money we'll be delighted."

Seabreeze D'Ho and Albert Hall are two interesting challengers from France, but both have their work cut out to challenge The New One and Zarkandar on official ratings.

Tim Vaughan-trained outsider Hawkhill completes the seven-runner field.

Really enjoying this thread so far.

I too am very interested in the many little nuggets that together make up the bounce factor.

Tinkler, I also think you're summary above is correct. Originally came from US racing where a horse that suddenly ran an exceptionally high peak performance would take so much out of itself in doing so that it would then struggle to repeat that for another six weeks or so. I've also read opposite views, and know Tom Segal completely disagrees. His angle is that improving horses are the ones that suddenly run lifetime bests, but it's these that are the horses going places and they often then run even better the next time. I think it all comes down to the type of horse in question as Harry says in his post. For example, I'd be happy to back a youngster on the back of a blinding good effort, but would be less happy about backing an old-timer that is less likely to be improving after it has run a sudden big race. Personally don't think it applies to injuries per se. I agree with regard to the Hawk Wing example Harry gave, and also have theories that a lot of horses are never the same after big runs. Whether this is physiological, or mental, or a combination of both, is open to question. I actually believe Long Run might well have been asked to go to the bottom of the well once too often and has just been a little soured by it all, which is why he is on the downgrade, and after cheering Riverside Theatre home in the Ryanair a couple of seasons back, I have a feeling the same is true with him. He had a brutally tough race that day, ran badly at Aintree a few weeks after, and has struggled since. I know he won the other day but he was all out to do so and was getting weight off horses he would have been expected to beat much more easily if at the same level of his Ryanair win.

Anyway, back to the thread itself....

I can see both sides of the coin with TNO and whether he has proved himself yet argument. For what it's worth, I haven't been as taken by any hurdler over the last few seasons and personally think he is the real deal. I suspect he will absolutely gag up tomorrow and then go to what is, even for a big supporter, an unbackable price with three months to go.

Imo the bounce factor is only a factor when the horse puts up a near best(or is trained to do so) after a long lay off or is very fit.

A horse can only take so many top class efforts, what makes them great is the ability to come back as good each time, some horses cant take it.

Its what makes Kauto Star a superstar.

Blinkers back on Zark today, ground is against him over this trip but he should run a solid race. Could learn a bit about how much the new one has improved since april.

Zarkandar has a great record over the new course. I reckon this could be a lot closer than some people are expecting.

just gonna watch but think it would be good for the game if TNO shows he might be the real deal.

Listening to NTD, TNO is only 90% fit today. Zark on the other hand, interesting ... here we go. ..

Impressive, fluffed the last, wins by 6 lengts with Zark in his favoured blinkers. Nice.

nonsense of a race, more questions than answers.

Hmmm, bad interference on Zarkandar and some rags ended close. Nothing there to make me change my opinion on TNO.

jumps road still being there is one thing, and TNO having to be produced exactly at the right moment is another thing for the CH itself is another thing to ponder

TNO idiling going into the last. Fair enough performance. Would have to watch the race again to have any firm opinion

His jumping isn't great either, tends to drag his back legs through the hurdles too much.

reading too much into things Duffy. He's beat a very good horse easily when far from at his peak. He has one target for the season and that's it.

One of those races which as you say duffy will have answered nothing. I can't say he's done anything there to deserve to have his price cut to 3/1 now!! I also can't say he won't be winning the Champion Hurdle.

I would love if he went to Kempton at xmas for Christmas hurdle but he probably wont. So it looks like it's on to Cheltenham for the Champion Hurdle next and we'll have to find out there.

A price of 3/1 is so far from a price I'd consider touching this horse at so the decision itself is made for me. But he's clearly a  player in the race.

He'll have another run before then CV.

The only conclusion you can draw from that race was unsatisfactory.

Disagree a lot tbh. Travelled like the best, quickened up this hill. And has now won over 2 miles at the track proving why it was such a tough task to beat AFC over 21f on Heavy.

This horse is the real deal. Only challenger to him is MTOY, but it remains to be seen what he finds off the bit.

What was jumps road still doing there swinging off the bridle 2 stone wrong, up the home straight, back legs through hurdles, idling!! 3/1, not for me, but if you've got big prices fair enough.

TNO might go to Kempton next said Twister, oh I'd love that. Be two huge Champion Hurdle trials run at xmas then. Hope it happens.

That would be brilliant to see.

I've Jezki & MTOY backed for the Champion. I'll probably add Hurricane Fly as he's looking too big a price. Don't think TNO will win and Our Conor has had his set backs.

Very open race though and you can make strong cases for all 5 of those. Christmas will tell us a lot if these trials happen.

I wouldn't be surprised if we get a ROR/Bino situation at Kempton where MTOY beats TNO and then TNO reverses it back at Chelts.

Very true Sint as I think we'll all agree the track will suit MTOY more than TNO. But at least the race will give us a line of form between supreme and TNO, plus Zarkandar from Champion Hurdle and then Jezki, Our Conor & Fly at Leopardstown. We'll have plenty of formlines to go with.

I'd be going with MTOY / Fly double at xmas.

Fascinating renewal this seasons Champion Hurdle is going to be. Reminds me of 2006.

Agree its a cracking renewal at the moment. It will be very interesting if they do send the horse to Kempton. Probably won't run again until Cheltenham after that so could be key two months for the trials.