**Becher Chase**

BECHER CHASE
Saturday 7th December 2013ALL ODDS
Favourites:On His Own (12), Prince De Beauchene (12), Triolo Dalene (12), Bostons Angel (14), Colbert Station (14), Join Together (16), Walkon (16), Wyck Hill (16), Ace High (20), Chance Du Roy (20), Kruzhlinin (20), Master Overseer (20), Planet Of Sound (20), Rich Revival (20), Roberto Goldback (20), Soll (20), Storm Survivor (20), Across The Bay (25), Baby Run (25), Big Fella Thanks (25)

Bostons Angel an interesting one here.

Walk On

I really fancy Across the bay in this if the description soft is anywhere in the going come Saturday. He ran well for a long way in the national despite the ground being too quick for him. Over a shorter trip on soft ground he will go well and stands out at 25/1.

Join Together is 2lb lower than when second last year, but that was behind a 13yo Hello Bud. Is 146 lenient enough for him to win?

Thought Soll ran a cracking race in the National for one with so little chase experience. He's entered at Sandown too this weekend and remains one to keep an eye out for in staying chases this year, although possibly won't be seen to best effect until we get softer ground.

Join Together ran a good raace in france a few weeks ago. He made one big blunder, that cost him plenty of energy imo.

Chance du Roy has run very well at Aintree in the past but not sure he wants this distance. I would really fancy him for the Sefton. Maybe a year older will mean he stays and he is 13lb lower than when just beaten by Always Waining in the Topham.

1     4PP-25    Junior168F b      10    11-12    David Pipe54    Liam Heard     155    132    161
2     2P52-U    Walkon42 p      8    11-8    Alan King48    Wayne Hutchinson     151    156    161
3     12U5-0    Big Fella Thanks35 t    11    11-8    Tom George31    Paddy Brennan     151    155    162
4     355U-4    Roberto Goldback35    11    11-8    Nicky Henderson53    David Bass     151    140    164
5     2710-5    Across The Bay35 tp      9    11-3    Donald McCain48    Jason Maguire     146    110    171
6     2P0-96    Join Together34 b1      8    11-3    Paul Nicholls74    Ryan Mahon     146    155    165
7     F5-176    On His Own40    9    11-1    W P Mullins57    Paul Townend     144    140    157
8     530P-    Planet Of Sound245 t    11    11-1    Philip Hobbs57    Richard Johnson     144    109    163
9     2643-P    Bostons Angel212 tb    9    10-13    David Pipe54    Tom Scudamore     142    118    155
10     21372-    Vesper Bell225    7    10-13    W P Mullins57    D J Casey     142    126    163
11     1103-9    Wyck Hill35    9    10-11    David Bridgwater71         140    145    163
12     14406-    Swing Bill245    12    10-11    David Pipe54    Conor O'Farrell     140    153    163
13     3489-1    Ikorodu Road42 p      10    10-11    Matt Sheppard    Charlie Poste     140    141    160
14     F51-12    Sizing Australia21 p      11    10-8    Henry De Bromhead67    A E Lynch     137    75    154
15     11U13/    Baby Run959      13    10-7    Nigel Twiston-Davies40    Sam Twiston-Davies     136    —    —
16     60235    Pineau De Re21    10    10-6    Dr Richard Newland50    Brian Hughes     135    133    172
17     114P-    Rose Of The Moon269    8    10-6    David O´Meara50    Jake Greenall3     135    102    160
18     F0498-    Chance Du Roy233    9    10-6    Philip Hobbs57    Tom O'Brien     135    154    161
19     72119F    Gullible Gordon22 tv    10    10-6    Peter Bowen40    Donal Devereux     135    119    158
20     1022-0    Chartreux80 tp    8    10-5    Tom George31    Alain Cawley     134    121    161
21     P-3313    Storm Survivor56 v      7    10-5    Jonjo O´Neill44    Richie McLernon     134    142    162
22     P2-457    Mr Moonshine14      9    10-4    Sue Smith70    Ryan Mania     133    150    166
23     PF1P-6    Bennys Mist37    7    10-1    Venetia Williams31    Aidan Coleman     130    138    172
24     541129    Ballybough Gorta21 p      6    10-0    Peter Bowen40    Robert Dunne3     129    139    163

It's a wide open race, I'm on mr moonshine, loves the fences but didn't stay in the national, 33/1 +
Rev fcast with walkon (thanks facts, glad to see ur still around)

10 year trends? Deffo need a recent run iirc.

The Betfred Becher Handicap Chase, which takes place on Saturday 7th December, is a 3M 2F listed contest run over the Grand National fences. Twice since 2000, the winner of this race has gone on to win the Grand National (Amberleigh House and Silver Birch in a later season).



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:


Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-1-2
6yo: 0-2-7
7yo: 1-2-16
8yo: 2-5-22
9yo: 3-7-43
10yo: 2-2-33
11yo: 0-6-19
12yo+: 2-0-14
7 of 10 winners were aged 8 to 10 though that age bracket accounted for 66.5% of total runners.
The only horse aged below 8 to win this since 2003 was Silver Birch who subsequently won the Grand National.
Only winner aged over 10 was Hello Bud in 2010 & 2012. Prior to his first win the race, he had finished 5th in previous season’s Becher Chase and also that year's Grand National.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-9 or more: 5-11-71
Horses carrying 10-8 or less: 5-13-84
There are no very strong trends on the weights.
Top Weight: F541FP155P (2-1-10)
Horses racing from out of the handicap: 2-5-27
Horses racing from 7lbs or more out of the handicap: 0-1-8

Official Ratings
Horses rated 143 to 157: 3-5-19
Horses rated 127 to 142: 5-15-104
Horses rated 112 to 126: 2-5-33
The last 8 winners were racing off marks between 130 to 148.

Recent/Past Form
10 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start
10 of 10 winners had won over 2M4F+
8 of 10 winners had won over 3M+
7 of 10 winners had run in the last 45 days
10 of 10 winners made their racecourse debut in a NH race
7 of 10 winners (last 5) had run in at least 13 chases (3 exceptions trained by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners had previously run in at least 8 handicap chases (all 3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls)
7 of 10 winners had won no more than 2 handicap chases (2 exceptions were Hello Bud who won it in 2010 & 2012)
6 of 10 winners were 4th or 5th season chasers (3 exceptions were trained by Paul Nicholls & other was Hello Bud winning it for second time)
8 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or higher
5 of 10 winners had run over the National fences (3 of 5 exceptions were trained by Nicholls, 1 had won the Cork National and 1 had completed the last 2 Irish Nationals)

Other Races
4 of 10 winners ran in that year's Grand National, finishing F5B7
2 of 10 winners ran in previous year’s Becher Chase, finishing 5U
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Paddy Power Chase in December, finishing 042
3 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the previous year's Troytown, finishing 764
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Leopardstown Handicap Chase, finishing 44
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Irish Grand National, finishing P8
2 of 3 Irish-trained winners ran in the Pat Taaffe Handicap Chase, finishing 02
3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, finishing P8P
3 of 7 British-trained winners ran in Classic Chase, finishing 115

Racing Style
8 of 10 winners raced prominently with leaders throughout

Trainers
Paul Nicholls (3-5-16) has trained the winner three times in the past 9 years and had the runner-up in 4 of the other 6.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-0-9) saddled Hello Bud to win it in 2010 & 2012.
Alan King (1-0-3) & Jonjo O’Neill (1-0-4) have each won the race once in the past 10 years.
Peter Bowen (0-3-13) has saddled 3 places in past 10 years.
Venetia Williams (0-1-1), Tom George (0-1-2), Sue Smith (0-1-4) & David Pipe (0-1-5) have each trained one placed finisher since 2003.
Irish based trainers (3-2-26) have a good recent record, having won it 3 times in last 8 years.

Price
No strong trends on prices, though 7 of the last 10 winners have gone off at 10/1 or shorter.
Favourites (2-2-11) have won 2 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 3.50.


Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

- Aged 8 to 10
- Officially rated 130 to 148
- Finished in the first 5 on last completed start
- Has run in the last 45 days
- Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F+ (ideally over 3M+)
- Run at least 13 times over fences
- Run in 10+ handicap chases (but won no more than 2)
- 4th or 5th season chaser (or trained by Paul Nicholls)
- Previous form over the National fences is a positive
- Ran in Haydock Grand National Trial, Classic Chase and/or Grand National
- Tends to race prominently
- Trained by Paul Nicholls or Nigel Twiston-Davies 


- See more at: http://racecaller.com/horse-racing-forum/upcoming-big-races/becher-chase-tre...

Across The Bay the obvious pick on trends it seems..

Baby Run, 34.0. on here, worth a punt. Likes the course, a joy to watch jumping around here. Older horse, but he's missed a couple of years, they tend to get under-bet. Stable does well in this race.Apparently looking well on gallops.
   Fear Across The Bay, Colldog's choice at 25's a good call.

Yep, I like Baby Run. Remember POS giving Johnson a great spin in the National two years ago til stamina burnt out, if the horse still has some drive in him. Reckon ground might be a bit on the quick side for ATB.

yep POS interesting if back to somewhere near his best.

I backed Rose of the Moon 1st time out last year at Wetherby and don't think I saw a horse jump better than that did all season. His record after a lay off is fabulous (never out of 1st two), clearly you don't know if if it handles the hurly burly of a race like this, but much too big for me at 36!!

I like Storm Survivor best and will back him ew in the morning.

I can also see the appeal of Baby Run though.

just seen Storm Survivor is PW selection, now wishing I'd backed him yesterday when there was 25/1 available instead of waiting, does my head in.

Pineau De Re would be my token pick but i'm staying out of this one.

Just a quickie but Bennys Mist for me.   Good luck all.

roberto goldback for me

planet of sound

good luck all

Dec 6, 2013 -- 10:42PM, ReaseHeath wrote:

just seen Storm Survivor is PW selection, now wishing I'd backed him yesterday when there was 25/1 available instead of waiting, does my head in.

So did you not bother to get up this morning, go to a shop and ge the price

Love a little punt on the National course myself for a bit fun.
With the ground now soft: a small ew on Wyck Hill for me.
The same on Midnight Appeal in the Sefton.
Gd luck all

Walkon & POS taken out, must be the ground. Rule 4's unless on ante-post.

Chartreux & Chance Du Roy both ew for me

Well, watched the race without having had a bet, and it looked to me like Paddy Brennan had no intention of winning on Big Fella Thanks.

wd Sageform, Gi Mac. Unlucky Baby Run backers.

We winners

Wd winners

its a travesty the way the National fences have been made to be no more than hurdles covered with loose spruce. Horses were going through the top of these fences with no halt to their progress. The Grand National has been ruined by do gooders imo.

Had to miss the race live but great to see the last mile on  replay. I did back him ante post but had some more SP which was a bit skinny at 14/1. The owner Daphne Du Pre has been a friend for many years and is a very lucky owner.

spot on facts...

One of those days today after a mediocre run lately. Came back from a village party at 2.30 and see all my betting accounts rising steadily. Sire de Grugy the latest so just need Midnight Appeal for a 6 timer now.

gl sageform

Well done Sage, GI.,
  The fences aren't the same, but still enjoyed the race. Baby Run would have fell 3 out a few years back. If horses aren't dying, I'm being won over.

JBNAY

Nice priced 3rd - well done.Walk On a NR unfortunately

I am old school and we have lost the greatest race in the world- no question those races today are a pale shadow of the Aintree of old the bastards have got their way but here are some interesting facts fatlities from 1839 up until the fences were first modified from upright to sloping on the take off side 59 in 150 years from 1959 up up until bechers was filled in in 1990 18 in 31 years from 1991 up to present date 21 in 23 years interesting don't you think, the faster they made the course the fatalities rise at an alarming rate I watched my first national in 1961 as a young boy every year I got a great buzz as the national approached sadly as I near 58 the buzz has gone and so has the GRAND NATIONAL

Plein Pouvoir died after falling at Aintree yesterday. Since these modifications I think we have had 5 races over the fences resulting in 2 deaths, Little Josh and Plein Pouvoir. So it is no safer and when the yer comes that a fatality happens in the GN then we will go through it all again.

I said 2 years ago that we may have to sacrifice the GN to save NH racing

^ Already have imo. The race as it stands at present aint the GN I've enjoyed for the past 50 years !Its been ruined I'm afraid. May as well just be another park course.Couldn't believe what i was seeing on saturday. Valentine's,Bechers,The Canal Turn The Chair.Hurdles covered in 5 foot ( if that ) of loose (kick away) spruce.Pathetic.

Just another long distance (shortened by 1/2 furlong too) handicap chase.

Might chckout Hamilton this year instead - try and avoid the hype.

If (god forbid) horses die over next year's National fences, what will the 'anti's' want then?

I've said it on other threads.  The fences should be stiffer and higher.  It would cut down the speed and put the emphasis on jumping and it's the speed that the horses hit the ground that kills them.  Horse and jockey need to respect the fence, not know they can go through the top of all of them.   I hate to see horses hurt but it is inevitable due to how they are built.  The do gooders should look around the fields and city streets to see what cruelty is for horses.

What shockster says a thousand times.

Try explaining why the fences should be tougher to save lives though - you may as well be explaining the Ceiling of the Sistine Chapel to an eskimo.

Sadly, horses get injured in races on the flat, over hurdles and fences. The only ones that get attention from the non racing press are at Aintree. I don't know what racing does about it because you can't keep saying "Hey, 2 horses were killed at Wolverhampton (or wherever) last week as well" as this will just add to the calls for all racing to be banned.

That is exactly what I would say though if I worked at the BHA. Horses die in all kinds of incidents relating to horse racing so I would tell the RSPCA and their supporters to stop picking on the Grand National. It may sound counter-intuitive but horse it makes sense because there is not a hope in hell that horse racing would be banned. If so it would take away many hundreds of millions, if not billions, away from Government coffers and leave tens of thousands of people unemployed. Basically, I would call their (the do gooders) bluff. Time they swallowed it and started harassing people who do actually cause harm to animals.

correct