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BETFAIR CHASE - HAYDOCK

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Replies: 197
By:
shockster
When: 21 Nov 13 15:05
I'm taking my 2 daughters to see this.  Cracking race and I'll stick with Dynaste.  Part of me thinks this race will have him spot on for the KG, but this is massive in its own right.  You can't enter races like this unless you're A1.
By:
FatoteSport
When: 21 Nov 13 15:14
Straight Tricast:

1. Bob's Worth
2. Tidal Bay (if he gets his ground, otherwise replace with Cue Card)
3. The Giant Bolster
By:
ThunderRoad
When: 21 Nov 13 15:38
Can't see Cue Card leading in a 3 miler. Will surely be raced quietly in an attempt to see out the trip better. Long Run to lead IMO
By:
sisyphus
When: 21 Nov 13 16:50
They all ready tried that (King George) Thunder, Colin said it didn't suit and they wouldn't try it again, besides Cue Card jumps better out front. I think this will be a severe test of stamina because Cue Card will lead, Henderson will convince Waley-Cohen that he can't let him have his own way, he will remind him that he nearly won the GC from the front and that there is no hill here. Silviniaco will slip stream those two and the Giant Bolster will stay out wide, get out paced and make mistakes eventually dropping out by half way. Tidal Bay, Bob, and Dynaste will hunt round the back. Long Run will take up the running 5 from home with Cue Card starting to feel the pinch after making one or two costly errors. Tidal bay will drop back 3 lengths off the field as the pace quickens. Geraghty starts to Roust as Dynaste looks to be cruising after some neat and tidy jumping. Two out now, Long Run goes for a big one, Silviniaco jumps level, Dynaste makes a spectacular jump and makes a line of three going to the last. Bobs not done with and he starts to make head way, Cue Card now looks beat. Over the last and another great leap sends Dynaste to the front, a slight mistake from Long Run leaves Silviniaco and Bob chasing. Dynaste still cruising but Bobs starts to get up, another slap from Geraghty sees Bob surge to the front and he begins to draw away from the brave Dynaste with Tidal Bay running on for from a long way back to tackle Silviniaco and Long Run for minor honours...WinkWinkWink
By:
buddeliea
When: 21 Nov 13 16:56
Tidal Bay don't get a long way back anymore,aint you noticed??
By:
TYSON 2
When: 21 Nov 13 17:00
Don,t think I,ll boyher watching it now! am knackered!
By:
TYSON 2
When: 21 Nov 13 17:00
Don,t think I,ll boyher watching it now! am knackered!
By:
TYSON 2
When: 21 Nov 13 17:01
Bother!!!
By:
sintonian
When: 21 Nov 13 17:02
He does a bit Budde!
By:
sisyphus
When: 21 Nov 13 17:02
He doesn't in hurdle races but his last two Chases; Leopardstown and Newbury he seemed to
By:
sisyphus
When: 21 Nov 13 17:05
Cue Card definitely didn't stay in my commentary Silly
By:
TYSON 2
When: 21 Nov 13 17:07
After all the rain we,ve had up here am expecting a real ding dong war of attrition up that final straight between the big two! Don,t expect Dynaste to run in this, and leave his King George in tatters!!
By:
buddeliea
When: 21 Nov 13 17:33
Yeh,he does come from off the pace of course but hes a lot closer during his races than he used to be,and plenty close enough to win.
As for cramped odds I saw mentioned,on his chase form last season,his fit from a run and what looks like rather soft groung,i aint sure 10 is cramped,in fact I think its value.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 21 Nov 13 17:36
it's arguably the best quality staying chase since Kauto and Denman were in their pomp.

I've made my decision, I'm just going to watch as I could see any one of six winning and I would n't be too surprised.

Mind you, the dead eight makes an ew bet enticing... Happy
By:
zilzal1
When: 21 Nov 13 18:09
Dont know about that Rease, its hardly a race you could say somethings nailed on for a place under the circumstances and at the prices

Just watch the race imo
By:
Ibrahima Sonko
When: 21 Nov 13 18:29
Amazing line up.
By:
zilzal1
When: 21 Nov 13 18:47
Just wonder how Saturdays race is going to impact on the King George, its not difficlt to envisage a real hard race for a few  and if you look at the market for the event there could be a opportunity to get a right price about something not in the field if you gfancy them
By:
Mr Mischief
When: 21 Nov 13 18:55
Good point. Al Ferof and Captain Chris might be carrying plenty of bruises after their clash at Ascot too. Hope Flemestars connections are taking note
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 21 Nov 13 19:04
I don`t fancy Cue Card as a thorough 3 miler but you never know. I would however like to see him allowed to stretch out up with the lead otherwise he will be frustrated whilst restrained. He is not a hold up type i am convinced,they just need to bite the bullet he needs to get into rhythm to preserve his energy and allowed to enjoy himself.
By:
duffy
When: 21 Nov 13 20:43
Agree with the negatives about CC in behind too, he needs to get into a rhythm out in front otherwise the jumping will suffer, either way he's going to have nowhere to hide on Saturday, but it's the very best thing for the horse because after Saturday, he's either going to be a very viable KG horse or perhaps might not even have to run in a 3 mile race again, with the quality there is in the race along with the way the race will be run, it's pretty clear that we will get a definitive answer with regards to CC and his suitability to 3 miles .
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 21 Nov 13 21:15
yep, we might also learn whether Dynaste and Conti can be the 'real deal', if Tidal Bay can be a realistic Gold Cup contender at age of 13, and whether Long Run is regressing or if Wetherby was an aberration.

We also might not get definitive answers to any of those questions (agree we should get definitive answer to the Cue Card one, barring accidents)  - that's what makes it such a fascinating race.
By:
brandyontherocks
When: 21 Nov 13 21:20
Really can not get my head round people thinking Bibs Worth is not quick enough.

Watch the Gold Cup again.

Coming to the third last Bob is 6+ lengths behind the leaders. This was down to his jumping. He is a good jumper but he isn't electric. Always losing 1/2 length per fence. Then Silviano falls in front of him. He loses another 2 lengths.
Long Run and Sir Des Champs quicken to the 2nd last and within no time Bobs Worth is on their heels.

He has enough pace to cope with these.

If Cue Card does stay he is the only danger I can see to Bob.
By:
thornton reed
When: 21 Nov 13 21:56
I backed Cue Card antepost at 10s thinking the race would cut up a bit. If he stays he has to go close, but its a very big if.

Tempted to lay off now. Looks a absolute cracker and I'm gutted I'm not there to see it.
By:
FatoteSport
When: 22 Nov 13 00:08
Bob's Worth is a tiny horse. I estimate 84% the size of the national hunt average, which is why he loses ground every jump.
By:
Colldogg
When: 22 Nov 13 00:41
This is a VERY hard race to call. Almost a no bet race for me but will have to have a little dabble in this race of such quality. I think other people have summed it up well by saying i've not been this excited for a staying race since Denman and Kauto Star were in their pomp.

Bob's Worth - Obvious place to start and clear fav. He proved all the doubters wrong last season. His performance in the Hennessey and Gold Cup were brilliant and he was the deserved champion. Is he unbeatable though? He doesn't seem like he is bombproof like Kauto Star was for a large part of his career so I can see why people are looking for other options.

Cue Card - I love the horse. He's a true star and one of the best in training and really likable. I'd love to see him win this on Saturday. Head over heart though I don't think he can do it. He blunders and fences and has his own way of jumping some. This will be exposed more over 3 miles and 1 jumping error against a field of this quality and it could be curtains.

Dynaste - Good horse but not THAT good. I think he will be found out in this company. He will gain a lot of experience from a race like this and he is one for the future and may improve. Strictly for Saturday though I can't see him being in the first 3.

Long Run - Wetherby aside, 12/1 is a bit of a insult price for this horse. He's easily the clear value call from a ew perspective. Will probably run a good race again without being good enough. Got a great place chance though if Wetherby has not left it's mark.

Roi Du Mee - Not good enough for this field.

Silviniaco Conti - Filled in the substantial hole left at the Nicholls yard to an extent and performed really well last season. I backed him for the Gold Cup and watching it first time I thought he had been so unlucky and would have won the race had he not fallen. Having watched it back again and again though I'm not so sure. Would he have been able to hold off Bob's Worth and Sir Des Champs up the hill? Maybe not. His run at Aintree while forgivable at the end of a long season (Somewhere Denman flopped at before too) but still it did not make him stand out as elite. Whether people think Fehily is better than Jacob, you surely have to think that in a race so big Nicholls would put his number 1 jockey on board if he thought it had a big chance of winning no matter how he dresses it up to the press?

The Giant Bolster - Love the nutty fella but he's out of his depth in this class away from Cheltenham.

Tidal Bay - The old rogue certainly still has it but winning a betfair chase at the age of 12 against this sustained quality just won't happen. He's a star and a great servant of the national hunt game. He won't be good enough though in this race. Might run on to a place if he's lucky.

Verdict is that Bob's Worth will be VERY hard to beat and instead of looking for value elsewhere in such a good field, it may pay just to go with the obvious choice. Cue Card is interesting but jumping and stamina issues will probably let him down. Long Run also has his jumping problems, but they normally still allow him to at least get a place.

I'm going to go for Bob's Worth and have a small ew saver on Long Run at the prices. Long Run could almost be a free bet to nothing.
By:
Angel Gabrial
When: 22 Nov 13 00:47
Bob`s Worth fiddles a few but i think that shows that he quite clever at his fences and it does not seem to bother him. Not the biggest but no doubt the gutsiest high ranking chaser on offer, he finds more at the end of his races than other horses and that is worth a few hands.
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Nov 13 07:50
Colldogg,

Which part of Tidal Bays recent chase form tells you he will be lucky to place,and wont be good enough........Good luck with that!!
Or are  you just thinking hes too old??
By:
Colldogg
When: 22 Nov 13 11:39
I just feel their are 3 better horses than him in the field. On top of the 3, their are also younger horses who could be better than him and have the chance to show it on Saturday. Of course his age doesn't help him either as he is nigh on approaching 13 and how many 13 year olds have been placed in Grade 1's recently?

I can just see it going the same way as the Lexus getting outpaced and one of the first off the bridle. It was a brilliant performance to win but 3 big factors are different. 1) The quality of horses in this years Betfair are higher than the Lexus. 2) He's another year older. 3) He has no Ruby Walsh on board him on Saturday.
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Nov 13 12:03
well maybe age will catch up,but on all known form from last season their aint 3 better 3m 1f horses in the race,only 1 by my reckoning.
He beat Sir Des Champs in the Lexus,you think their are 3 better horses over 3m 1f than the Gold Cup runner up??
Form Evidence says that aint right.

I have no problem you having opinions of course,but to say he wont be good enough is a bit harsh imo, especially when you look at the formbook.
By:
Big Bucks John
When: 22 Nov 13 12:34
Long Run and Tidal Bay are the value bets for me.

Bobs Worth and Silviniaco Conti will in my opinion contest the Gold Cup in March, this is there first run of the season though so will be opposing them both.

Dynaste is too short on what he has achieved so far and this is his first run of the season.

Long Run - Never been out of the frame bar his last race which was his first run of the season. Unlikely to be good enough for the Gold Cup but this could be his Gold Cup. He finished 2 and a half lengthsw behind SC last year in this race but that was his first run of the season and SC was coming into the race with a run already under his belt.

Roi Du Mee - Not good enough for this field.

The Giant Bolster - Again not good enough and his first run.

Tidal Bay - Certainly not an old rogue anymore so consistent and will love the soft going. No holes in his form, the biggest question mark will be with his age and can he still compete with the top dogs, he has up until now so no reason to oppose yet on that basis.
By:
sintonian
When: 22 Nov 13 13:27
If Silviniaco does not win tomorrow i'd wonder if he is being trained for the King George.
By:
buddeliea
When: 22 Nov 13 13:30
that's a weird one sint,last season Kempton he said would not suit the horse...so whats changed??
By:
sintonian
When: 22 Nov 13 13:52
Not sure why they've changed their minds tbh Budde.

The fences tomorrow have had 1.5 inches added to them. Going to need to jump impeccably all the way.
By:
sisyphus
When: 22 Nov 13 15:01
Sint, Budd

£5,000 for fifth place, get payed for schooling in public
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 22 Nov 13 20:13
also gone for long run win and place at 15 or better on here ,1st poor run in around 3 years in charlie hall and scoped badly post race plus the mistake didnt help ,no stamina doubts a gold cup winner and 2 king georges and always seems to be better for his  his 1st run lof season ,looks decent value to me !
By:
duffy
When: 22 Nov 13 23:11
Dynaste for me, I know he needs to improve, but by default so does every novice from the year before racing against the big boys for the first time, we eventually saw that 3 miles was his trip and I can just see him stalking travelling easily and picking it up against some very decent horses.
By:
bigben the horseman
When: 22 Nov 13 23:36
This is my take on the horses:

Bobs Worth - Always underestimated because he's a smaller than the average chaser and can make the game look hard work. However his attitude and engine are     unquestionable and his record left handed is unquestionable. He's the perfect example of how you want a racehorse and not a show horse. He'll be very hard to beat. My main play in the race. Ill be trying to get slightly bigger odds in play as he'll be making things look hard work during the first circuit whilst others wont.

Cue Card - For me a horse that needs good ground to be at his best and needs to be allowed to bowl along to jump at his best. If they hold him up tomoro I think the horse will make jumping errors and ruin his chance of being involved in the finish. If they let Cue Card bowl along I believe he wont quite stay. I dont think this is his race and the horse could be at ascot in a more suitable race. Also has been beaten by Bobs Worth over 2m4f and I dont see him reversing that form over 3m1f.

Dynaste - Clearly talented but from a form point of view I dont think he is going to be good enough. He's an eye catching traveller and will look to be going well for a long way. However up the home straight I think he will toil. I dont think the Aintree win proves he has the stamina for this his connections will also have one eye on the King George whereas other connections have no King George plans to worry about.

Long Run - I will forgive him his last run and he's record of making the frame is admirable. He'll strip fitter here as he needs the run first time imo. However has finished 2nd in this race the last 2 seasons and I think this is the toughest renewal he'll have faced yet. If your a fan get your money on in thr place market as I dont think he can quite win this.

Roi Du Mee - Needs a career best here and by some way. Sizing Europe has never stayed 3 miles and First Lieutenant ran to bad to be true last time and until proven otherwise I think he's flattered with that victory. He is the wild card here tho imo and if he runs a monster race we will be scratching our heads thinking what a price that was with a convincing victory of Sizing Europe and First Lieutenant last time out.

Silviniaco Conti - Has a huge chance based on the formbook alone. I will forgive him his below par run at Aintree last time as many a horse has ran below form there after being prepared for the Gold Cup. Last years winner of this. Will love the ground and has the class and stamina. Gun to my head though I dont think he'd have beat Bobs Worth in the Gold Cup. If Bobs Worth is beat this is 1 of 2 horses I think have some sort of chance of doing it.

The Giant Bolster - If its not at Cheltenham consider it a day out with this lad. Cant fancyhim at all.

Tidal Bay - If this horse was 10 years old and not 12 years he be half the price because the form book is outstanding over the last 5 runs since nicholls sweetened  him up. He hasnt been running like a horse rising 13 and therefore deserves maximum respect until he looks that way. He's form with Bobs Worth in the Hennessy coupled with his G1 win in Ireland beating the Gold Cup 2nd Sir Des Champs gives this lad the 2nd best form in this race imo. I wont be backing him to win but will be making sure I dont lose if Tidal Bay wins and will be placing a cover bet to cover my other 2 stakes.


Summary:

I'll be placing £100 Bobs Worth in running hoping and expecting to get 3/1.
I'll put £20 on Tidal Bay at around 10/1.

Good luck to all
By:
JOCI Club
When: 22 Nov 13 23:52
Maybe we can over-analyse these early season races, and it might come down to something simple like who has their horses in better nick on the day.

Bobs Worth always seems to turn up relatively fit for his season pipe-opener, and if this is going to be his only run til January, then maybe he'll be plenty fit enough.

Silviniaco Conti did well in this last year, but will he be fully wound up, if he's going for the King George? Don't know.

Dynaste is interesting. If it wasn't for his Cheltenham Festival run, I'd be quite keen on him. He showed he was better than that over a trip at Aintree. Pipe may have him cherry ripe, and that could be the difference.

Hard race to weigh up, and no bet, but I fancy either Bobs Worth or Dynaste.
By:
ReaseHeath
When: 22 Nov 13 23:59
Tizzard stable form still not great , nor Bridgwater as it happens.
By:
shockster
When: 23 Nov 13 10:51
Bobsworth 11/4 Betfred and money back if he falls upto £25.  not sure how long price will last.
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