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I think she had an advantage over Lethal Force in the Maurice de Gheest but it still doesn't alter that it was a quality performance. As to the Jacques Le Marois, I don't know how anybody could argue that she had an advantage running in a Gp1 only 7 days after winning another Gp1 in a fast time. If that's the case why aren't more trainers targeting races with such a short break in-between? Why did you use it as an excuse that Ruler of the World was running in the Champion Stakes 13 days after he'd appeared in the Arc? I say appeared as it would be stretching things to say he had a race
It seems to me that such a short break would normally be called a disadvantage, and rightly so, imo. |
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Good morning Figgis. I had to go to bed when the cricket finished.
I fail to see how you can compare Moonlight Cloud running twice in a week with ROTW. She was having her second run of the season and was obviously laid out for exactly that in the same way ROTW was laid out for the Arc prep and then the Arc. She was running over a shorter distance (approx half) on her own doorstep whereas he had to travel to France twice, go though the preps etc then run to his best in the Arc. Even NH horses run within a short period of time over much further it depends upon how hard a race they have and, with Moonlight Cloud she din't have a very hard race first time up or, for that matter, second time up. Had she been running in the 70's she wouldn't have won a Group 1 race until her 14th run and would only have won 3 Gr 1's in 20 starts in all. In her 2 wins in the Maurice de Gueest she beat sprinters, Whizz Kid and Lethal Force, over 7f which suited her admirably and didn't suit them. So your point about ROTW running in a prep race prior to the Arc, running in the Arc than the Champion Stakes coupled with the travelling and the fact that he had been trained to win the Derby then the Arc bears absolutely no comparison to Moonlight Cloud's two runs in a week and a total of five runs in the season. The pattern both over fat and NH means that trainers can now be very selective if they limit their runs and target races other trainers are unlikely to target. Henry Cecil was a master of that. |
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The Hong Kong Cup was run at a steady pace, indeed Military Attack did 21.98 for the last quarter and he was probably the best horse in the race under those conditions, CDA would have found the surface too quick as well as the pace against him. Side Glance finishes close up as well so form lines aren't worth doing. For instance Frankel beat SG 12 lengths, he beats CDA 1.75l but here in a steadily run race over 10f on quick ground there isn't much between CDA and SG.
Moonlight Cloud ran a stinker in the US on similarly quick ground at the end of the season and the same thing has happened here. There is no way I would be changing any previous ratings for Moonlight Cloud or CDA after that brigust. Did you have any bets there Brigust? |
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Good morning Steve. Yes I backed The Fugue for a place, I hate backing girls to beat the boys. I backed the Japanese sprinter and had small bets on Moonlight Cloud and CDA because I thought they were the best horses in the race.
My point about Moonlight Cloud is that with so many Group 1's they can be targeted more easily and if you lay your horse out for that race, as Head did, the likelihood others have as well decreases greatly. In the Maurice de Gueest and the J le Marois she was virtually the only horse trained for those races. Similarly in the Champion Stakes only Farhh and CDA were trained specifically for those races. The pattern is so diluted. And you have a case where Had they been running in the 70's Farhh would have on a single Gr 1 from 10 starts, MC would have won 3 Gr 1's from 20 starts, CDA would have won 2 Gr 1's from 53 starts and So You Think would have won a single Gr 1 from 11 starts. And Olympic Glory would have won a single Group 1 from 10 starts. When you package the above statistics together and find that all of the above cannot win anywhere else you have to ask if they are weakening the system. Moonlight Cloud, Olympic Glory, CDA and So You Think all went abroad and we well beaten. Outside our closeted world they couldn't achieve. Coincidence? |
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I think you have to look at each horse individually brigust, some weren't suited by conditions or may have had enough for the season. There have also been a lot of our horses that have been successful abroad indeed you have backed a few of them yourself Magician in the US and Side Glance in AUS. Also I've seen the likes of Red Cadeaux and Dunaden do very well abroad in recent years and they aren't anywhere near our top horses.
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As there is far more racing now than in the past it follows that there will be more races at the top than the past, or would you prefer even more dross at the bottom, brig? Of course there are bound to be some top races that aren't as competitive as they could be, but I see no difference whatsoever in the ability required to win an Eclipse, King George, Jacques Le Marois than was needed when I started following racing in the 80s. As far as the Champion Stakes goes the level has gone up compared to some of the glorified Gp2 levels of form that won it in the past.
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That is exactly my point Stevie. Side Glance couldn't win a handicap off 102 ffs. Why is it that then because he wins a weak Gr 1 in Aus that he is so much better. And that is the pattern throughout. Lets face it Moonlight Cloud is rated very highly but she has been cherry picking. In competitive races she has been beaten.
Fig I know some of the Champion Stakes throughout the years have been less competitive but this season the first three were the winner who had won a single (uncompetitive Group 1) from 9 starts, the 2nd horse had won 3 Group 1's from 52 starts and the 3rd horse had won a single Group 1 (in an uncompetitive and low grade Derby where only a single Gr 3 and a maiden have been won by the first 11 home including the winner) from 7 starts. So don't you think this years Champion Stakes, when you look back in years to come will look like another low grade renewal? |
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Brig, as you think both Sea The Stars and Frankel were overrated, with Brigadier Gerard being before my time then Dancing Brave is the only case up for discussion. You have always agreed with the Dancing Brave rating but I'd be interested in you explaining the inconsistencies in your arguments. You say you always judge a horse on the horse he beats into second, in DB's Guineas he beat a sprinter. In the Derby he was beaten by Shahrastani and I agree with the common view that he should've won. That horse went on to thrash the Irish Derby field but, as you yourself have said, any 3yo generation can be a weak crop and they can't be judged until they've met their elders. Although it should be said that the elders could also be a weak crop.
Triptych is pivotal to the form that DB showed against his elders. He beat her comfortably in the Eclipse, then when narrowly beating Shardari in the King George (on 1lb more favourable terms than 3yos would get today) Triptych was in 3rd. Shardari then went on to confirm the form by beating Triptych at York. Shardari had taken 10 runs to win his first Gp1, which is something you have viewed as a negative when judging current runners. Also, the horse who finished directly behind him in both of those Gp1s was Triptych so once again she is crucial to the form. In the Arc, DB beat Bering, a horse with a big reputation but who in reality only had one Gp1 to his name, a Gp1 where the form didn't amount to anything exceptional and he was only beating his own age group. Directly behind Bering was the ubiquitous Triptych and Shardari was narrowly behind her. As Shardari had comprehensively beaten Triptych in his previous two runs I'd be interested in your explanation for the turnaround in form. Was Shardari below his best (likely) or do you think that Triptych improved at this late stage? (less likely). As you have argued that Frankel's form was all linked with the same horses and that they have been overrated along with him, I think it's fair to say that Dancing Brave's form is largely tied up with Triptych. As you have also said that you judge a horse on the horse it beats into second, then leaving Triptych's robustness qualities to one side, I would be interested in your views on the horses she beat into second when winning her Gp1s. Please don't respond with the vague and trite reply that DB beat the best Arc field ever assembled or that Triptych was a multiple Gp1 winner, instead of applying the same scrutiny you apply to today's form. Remember, these aren't my criteria for judging a great horse, they are yours. |
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You never change Figgis. It would nice if you would get your facts right to start with. I will say this again for your personal attention so please let it sink in.
The ONLY reason I have questioned Frankel's rating is because Timefom's own figures do not add up. Is that clear? I have questioned the horses he has beaten and why their rating are so high. Excelebration is obviously rated on his defeats by Frankel. That is blindingly obvious. Farhh is clearly rated on his defeats by Frankel that is blindingly obvious and CDA is over rated. They are all at least 7lbs higher than they should be. Excelebration won 3 Group 1's beating Rio de la Plata and Cityscape. Rio de la Plata is beaten in Group 3's and Cityscape won a single Group 1 in Meydan from 20+ starts. Farhh and CDA I have already discussed and I suggest their form with Ruler of the World (see Derby note) shows how good they really are. Have a look a the horse Farhh beat in the Lockinge. My point about Dancing Brave is backed up by the Official Handicapper and it took a so called re-check before they managed to put Frankel in font of him because he was unable to achieve it on the track. That still only put him 2lbs in front of DB who Timeform have on 140 so that give him a rating of 142 which actually concur's with their own figures if they did them properly. I have been through this before. There were far fewer Group races in the 70's and 80's so horses had to go where they could and the racing was more competitive. Of course you waltzed through the mile, 10f and 12f as if it was nothing. And DB won the Arc giving everything start in the home straight. For that reason I will not discuss the form of Frankel's finest hour where the 2nd horse never turned up. the 3rd horse couldn't win a handicap off 102. the 4th horse won a Listed race in Dresden 2 years ago, the 4th and 5th horses were the pacemakers. |
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So, the 2 questions I asked have remained unanswered, 1.01 really wasn't it?
I'll try again. Why do you think Shardari's form with Triptych was reversed in the Arc? What is your opinion on the horses Triptych beat when winning her Gp1s? |
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Just to jog your (selective) memory, brig. When Triptych won her only Gp1 that year, the Champion Stakes, the horse that finished second, Celestial Storm, was well beaten into second in that year's Leger, a classic generally recognised as on the weak side. Not only that, but only 3 starts earlier Celestial Storm managed to achieve something that Farhh didn't, he was actually beaten in a handicap
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Figgis you trot through Derby and Arc winners etc as if that has anything to do with Farhh, Cirrus Des Aigles and Excelebration. The nearest Farhh and CDA got to an Arc winner was a horse who finished 15th the last time he ran in it ffs.
And your attack on Triptych (8 Group 1 wins including the Irish 2000 Gns against the boys) show only how desperate you have become. That is 8 Group 1 wins won by Triptych (only one of the Group 1 winners in DB's Arc) which adds up to what Farhh, CDA and Exceleration have won put together. |
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And your attack on Triptych
Attack?? Can you explain why when you're asked to apply the same criteria to racehorses you favour it is bizarrely seen as an attack on the horse? As I said before, these aren't my criteria they are yours, only it seems they are only used when it suits. |
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Brigust,
I don't think Farhh's rating was raised after his defeats by Frankel, it was raised after his runs against SYT ans in the eclipse against Nathaniel. Don't think he was raised anymore after was he? |
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If you read what I write you will see that I looked at Farhh's WHOLE career, CDA's WHOLE career and Excelebrations WHOLE career.
Unlike you I never cherry picked the odd placed horse here and the odd down the field horse there. That is just sheer desperation. So the criteria I set is based upon these horse's whole career. Moonlight Cloud's WHOLE career not just the well placed stuff. Anyway I am half way through a set of plans so will return shortly, if required. |
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Ok, as a 3yo Triptych won one Gp1, which was against the boys and should be commended for that, however, using your own criteria she beat a horse called Celestial Bounty, who only went on to win a listed race later in the year. I've already stated her achievements as a 4yo. As a 5yo she beat Takfa Yahmed whose only win was the Gp2 Prix Dollar later that year. She beat Rakaposhi King, a Gp3 winner. She beat Ascot Knight a Scottish Derby winner. She beat Entitled, a Gp3 winner and she beat Most Welcome, another Gp3 winner. What was it you were saying about Gp1s getting easier?
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My point about Dancing Brave is backed up by the Official Handicapper and it took a so called re-check before they managed to put Frankel in font of him because he was unable to achieve it on the track. That still only put him 2lbs in front of DB who Timeform have on 140 so that give him a rating of 142 which actually concur's with their own figures if they did them properly.
Brigust, in this statement once again you are mixing BHA ratings and Timeforms. As 138 for DB on timeform would be around 144 so therefore Frankel's 140 would be around 146. So really it looks like the BHA is agreeing with Timeform on Frankel's rating but on a timeform scale they would be rating DB 144. |
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Sorry Stevie I currently have the Official Handicapper on 138 and Timeform on 140 for Dancing Brave. Is that not correct? So if the OH has DB 2lbs behind Frankel (I don't agree by the way)then on that basis Frankel should be 142 on Timeform.
The Official Handicapper had Dancing Brave on 141 and Frankel on 140. They dropped DB by 3lbs putting him on 138. Timeform had Dancing Brave on 140 the same as the OH. Therefore Frankel should be 142. No? |
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Figgis about Celestial Storm when he was beaten in a handicap he was carrying 9st 10lbs as a 3 year old and was beaten by a 4 year old carrying 8st 8lbs. Next time out he won the March Stakes at Goodwood. Followed by a 2nd in the St Leger and a 2nd to Triptych in the Champion Stakes. As a 4 year old he ran twice winning the Prince of Wales Stakes at Ascot breaking the course record) beating Phardante who had beaten Slip Anchor in the Jockey Club Cup.
And you overlooked that in 3rd place behind Triptych and Celestial Storm in the Champion Stakes was Park Express who had just won The Irish Champion Stakes (Group 1), the Nassau Stakes (Group 1) and the Lancashire Oaks. In 4th place was Baillmont who had just won the Prix D'Ispahan (Group 1) and the Prix Ganay (Group 1). In 5th was Damister who had just been beaten a nose in the Breeders Cup Classic. In 6th was Untold who had just finished 3rd behind Celestial Storm in the St Leger and had just before that won the Yorkshire Oak (Group 1) with Park Express in 2nd place. Is that that you mean't? Of course you scurrilously ignored the fact that Triptych was 2nd in the Oaks to Oh So Sharp, 4th in the Irish 1000 Gns, 5th in th Irish Derby and 3rd in the Juddmonte International. Also that Ascot Knight was beaten twice by her and he was rate 130 by Timeform. And she had the Irish Derby winner behind as well. She ran loads of times finishing 3rd in the Eclipse behind Mtoto with Indian Skimmer in 4th. She won the Coronation Cup beating Infamy who won the Sun Chariot and a Grade 1 in the US and Moon Madness who won the St Leger and the Grans Prix de St Cloud among others. After all she ran 41 times and never missed anything. Had there been the number of fillies and mares races there are today she would not have had to compete against the boys all the time. Anyway it makes her 8 Group 1's including winning a classic and placed in another from 41 starts look better than CDA's 3 Group 1's from 54 starts and no classic success at all. |
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If you are happy with DB on the timeform scale then yes you could have Frankel on 142 but you would then have to drop DB on the official scale as well as Frankel. So on the official scale you would be looking at 136 Frankel and 134 Dancing Brave. This then puts Sea The Stars in between Frankel and Dancing Brave. You just have to adjust to the different scales. Same with RPRs their ratings are around 3lb lower than timeforms so again Frankel's 143 would have to be dropped.
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Ah right, so it's ok for Celestial Storm to be excused his handicap defeat but Farhh gets negatively referred to as a Hunt Cup winner, often followed by 'ffs'. CS set a course record, which proves nothing but the ground was fast.
So it's ok to look back at horses that finished further down the field than second when it suits you? As long as we know moving the goalposts is within your rules, eh brig? And Ascot Knight was rated 130 was he and you're using that as a basis on which to back up your argument? Fair enough, but if you have so much faith in Timeform's ratings when it suits you it would be extremely hypocritical to slate their ratings when they don't suit you, would it not? As for Triptych, she was a fine, tough, filly/mare, possibly the toughest I've seen, but in using many instances of her running well, but ultimately being well beaten against the very best, you're hardly do a convincing job of proving the merits of the form. |
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Sorry, Thirsk Hunt Cup winner, mustn't overstate his achievements
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Brigust, how many of those horses were "specifically trained" for those races?
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Figgis you are obviously completely lacking about how these horses had to run on handicaps etc, a bit like Arkle, because there were so few Group races compared with today. Plus there was no AW, Meydan etc etc. What you need to address is your hatred of history. It is sad because one day Frankel, Excelebration, CDA and Farhh will be history too when the hype has gone and all that is left is in black and white. I wonder what the new form students will make of that at least the next champions fans will have something to slaughter. And at least Dancing Brave etc have stood the test of time.
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What you need to address is your hatred of history
Frankly, that's a hysterical response , made me actually lol so thanks for that, brig. |
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If you are so misguided in thinking the Queen Anne Stakes, Maurice de Gheest, Jacques le Marois and Pix de la Foret are among the races trainers specifically target and lay horses out for then you have already shown how little you know.
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If you are so misguided in thinking the Queen Anne Stakes, Maurice de Gheest, Jacques le Marois and Pix de la Foret are among the races trainers specifically target and lay horses out for then you have already shown how little you know.
That wasn't the question. |
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I loved the racing in the 80s and I think Figgis did too, can't see any hatred of history. In the same way you question Frankel's rating Brigust, Figgis has always questioned DBs rating. I can't see anything wrong with this as long as you don't get obsessed by it. It passes time between races anyhow. I might look in tomorrow if thread still going.
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Stevie, yes I much preferred the racing scene then than how it is now. I do disagree with DB's rating but I don't have any problem at all with anybody thinking he was the best. I also don't have a problem with anybody thinking Frankel was overrated in their opinion. I just dislike horses being compared unfairly when it suits.
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yes you've made some very good points Figgis and well remembered. I could not even remember Celestial Storm running in handicaps, I vaguely remember blue and yellow colours and Cumani trained him but that's about it. It's too far back for the RP site.
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Stevie, it helps having a few old Raceform annuals at hand
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I will treat your last point with the total contempt it deserves Figgis.
I personally think DB was rated correctly and it was only recently for no apparent reason the new guard disagreed. It is suspicious to say the least and I have on tape Dominic Gardner Hill saying before the Champion Stakes that Frankel would have to beat Cirrus des Aigles by 7 lengths to surpass Dancing Brave. This he clearly failed to do and I will always mistrust the way this was carried out. I have requested repeatedly a copy of any statement prior to Frankel where this period was rated wrongly and I know an ex senior handicapper who is disgusted about the whole thing. But as he says in his letter, 'I cannot be seen to say anything derogatory about Frankel'. Dancing Brave was fortunately owned by Frankel's owner and I have a personal correspondence from a current senior handicapper as well as the ex senior handicapper that give succour to my own opinion so I will rest happy with that. |
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for no apparent reason
I think you'll find the reason was that even before Frankel had set foot on a racecourse the handicappers had publicly admitted that their handicap scale had slipped since the 80s, it was even published, as you well know but choose to ignore. This made any attempt at comparisons with today's runners utterly ridiculous. |
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I have requested repeatedly
Brig, would you class this as normal behaviour over such a matter? |
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Figgis nearly all of the discussions you have on here, not just with me but with others posters, end up with you making condescending remarks like the one below. You select the most minute point from a whole list of items and concentrate on that then move into another point while totally ignoring the whole gist of the point. I try to deal with these points individually but you then ignore that and move onto something else.
Please don't respond with the vague and trite reply that DB beat the best Arc field ever assembled or that Triptych was a multiple Gp1 winner You have an attitude problem and I think I will leave you with it. |
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nearly all of the discussions you have on here, not just with me but with others posters, end up with you making condescending remarks like the one below
No, brig, just you and one other poster with a tendency to preach, try to stop assuming you're speaking for everyone ![]() |
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Stevie Ceestial Storm won a 23 runner Newmarket maiden first time out by 3 lengths. He then ran in the Extel handicap at Goodwood and was favourite finishing 3rd. The race was won by his stable companion Chinoiserie who next time out won a listed race. Dick Hern had the 2nd home. He then ran in a handicap at Newmarket and was beaten by Power Bender who won 4 handicaps on the trot. He was 4/6 and was giving 16lbs to the 4 year old winner. Next time out he won the March Stakes at Goodwood, was 2nd in the St Leger and 2nd in the Champion Stakes.
Sadly, because of people like you Figgis who treat others in such a condescending way this forum is almost dead. There is absolutely and totally no reason why you should talk down to people who are trying to have a sensible debate with you. But you cannot help yourself. Why don't you take a few tips out of Stevie and Pedro's books, to name but two. They can put me right without talking down to me and using your condescending attitude. |
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Ah yes, the Extel handicap. Always looked forward to that race. The one that stands out in my memory was Paul Cole's Broken Hearted, bolted up and looked a group horse and went on to prove it too. Haven't got a clue what the race is called now or even if they still have it.
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people who are trying to have a sensible debate
That's it in a nutshell, I find that Stevie and ped are always up for sensible debate, they don't have closed minds, they don't ignore pertinent issues, they don't have an agenda and they don't offer ludicrous conspiracy theories. |
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Figgis why don't you wind your neck in?
I asked you quite openly on this thread whether or not you thought the Queen Anne Stakes was the best performance by any racehorse since ratings began. You refused to agree that it was because you couldn't. Why? Because it isn't. Yet the BHA and Timeform both think that is the race that puts Frankel ahead of Dancing Brave. Live with it. I have always stated quite openly and clearly that I know very little about Dancing Brave or his races and if you read back through this thread you will see quite clearly that it is you who constantly and repeatedly returns to Dancing Brave. It is therefore you who has the agenda here not me. It is you who has the problem. It is you who has the closed mind and a limited supply of old Raceform notebooks. I wasn't even thinking about Dancing Brave or Triptych. We've been here before about you condescending attitude but you really cannot help yourself. Just don't try to blame anyone else for it. |