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harry callaghan
14 Oct 13 08:54
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 6,078 | Blogger: harry callaghan's blog
Well the great meeting is nearly upon us

Looking at the races so far looks very interesting will the fugue take in the turf or filly and mare turf??

she looks very likely to go there fresh and if taking in the turf she is likely to be met by novellist, camealot, last years winner little mike and point of entry who has been injured with a condylar fracture when winning the manhattan in june...he faces a race against time in order to be ready for the race with a prep ruled out...

the fugue an unlucky loser in last years mares race is favourite and i think they will go for the turf...she is better fresh and has to have a great chance but this is a very tough race and she will have to be at her very best to win

novellist will bring some much needed class to the race if turning up...if whatever stopped him from running in the arc has been sorted out he would have a chance

Wise dan is a favourite of mine and goes in the mile but will have to recover from an unexpected defeat in the shadwell mile when the race was switched to polytrack...silver max his conqueror in the shadwell is likely to reoppose but isn't in the same league as wise dan on turf

as much as i love the horse i am keen to get him at around evens but as yet the race lacks depth...(no allegiance here) with the ground going soft at ascot there is a chance toronado or dawn approach may go and it is also hoped moonlight cloud travels just to help the book as wouldn't like her on a fast track although she appears to be handling better ground better this year...however she has travelled abroad from her native france on 4 occasions and been beaten on all 4 starts

aiden o'brien is likely to send a strong team and his team are fresher than normal with DOW and camelot missing recent engagements because of ground plus he is likely to chose from a number of 2 year olds...war command followers will be keen he doesn't go but i think he might with the trainer seeming to have quite a poor bunch of juveniles this year...

declaration of war is likely to take in the classic but he has never faced the kick back he will face on the dirt...3 wins against mediocre opposition on polytrack will give connections hope but there is a strong army of proper dirt horses from the states this year mucho macho man, fort larned and game on dude are proper group 1 dirt horses and as tough as he is, he will have to be, to try and even emulate the stables great horse giants causeway who was just eye balled out of it by the great tiznow in a rousing stretch duel in 2000 that took the whole length of the churchill down stretch to be decided

anyway plenty of debate to be had
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Report Shiekh Me Hand October 23, 2013 5:50 AM BST
Hey Brig,
To be honest, I found it a complete nightmare to find accommodation, we got lucky in that my friend went last year and popped into the motel after the meeting last year and asked to be put on the list if a space became available... we got lucky and got a call.
I would suggest trying to find something around this time already for next year..we based our choice on spending zero time in the place other than sleeping.
Good luck Rhinestone, enjoy the meet and PILE ON VORDA Tongue Out
Report zilzal1 October 23, 2013 11:32 AM BST
Classic looks like last years revisited, got to be against Game on Dude in these circumstances
Report brigust1 October 23, 2013 11:57 AM BST
AOB is running the Juddmonte winner Declaration of War in the Classic so we may get a handle on the 10f bunch. The Fugue looks like being a bet but will have to wait until her race is decided. I think she will take on the boys.
Report harry callaghan October 23, 2013 2:01 PM BST
how do we get an angle on the 10f bunch brigust in regards DOW...this is a dirt race?? of which we don't know how he will handle kick back should be 20's for this race imo
Report brigust1 October 23, 2013 4:57 PM BST
Well DOW has won at Dundalk and AOB has targeted this race with all his good horses so if he were to bolt up, I know it wouldn't be cast in stone, but we can reasonably think our top 10f could do the same. That's all.
Report ashleigh October 23, 2013 5:05 PM BST
toronado non runner.
Report rhinestone October 23, 2013 6:25 PM BST
cheers brig, sheikh.

i'll report back on here brig. Yes i always fancied Santa Anita, went to Churchill in 2010 it was baltic Crazy

gl everyone.
Report harry callaghan October 24, 2013 8:28 AM BST
brigust if he were to bolt up?? very funny thatLaugh he has won a couple of minor races on polytrack

so your saying we could form conclusions about our 10f horses on the back of his running in the breeders cup classic dirt race??

it is ridiculous to even consider a scenario tbh or to even judge DOW on his running in the classic in a comparison with our 10f horses...


its like running game on dude on turf against him over 10f when we all know game on dude is a dirt horse and saying DOW is a far better horse when he wins and then forming the opinion our horses are better than there's...

in conclusion brigust it is a ridiculous thing to say
Report brigust1 October 24, 2013 9:44 AM BST
I disagree Harry. I know there is difference and it varies from horse to horse but is the difference as huge as all that? Wise Dan has won on both surfaces and Animal Kingdom has run very well on all three surfaces. So You Think either didn't handle the surfaces or was beaten by better horses. He finished a couple of lengths behind Game on Dude on dirt and he was rated 125. With DOW rated 120 I don't at all think it's inconceivable. I'm not saying the two surfaces are the same and I know some prefer one surface to the other but in general I think a horse will run on both surfaces with a preference to one of them. It just depends how big that preference is.
As you appear to know the difference between the two surfaces why don't you give me with your idea of what the difference may be in lengths?
If, for example, DOW won by 10 lengths, I know it's highly unlikely, do you think it is inconceivable Al Kazeem, who he beat in the Juddmonte, could have won? That was my point
Report harry callaghan October 24, 2013 10:27 AM BST
interesting point on wise dan and animal kingdom but it has to be remembered that both horses were trained for dirt and had had multiple runs on dirt before achieving what they achieved...so you think ran well for a long way but he is a great example of a turf horse running on dirt...dirt races are run fast then are just ground out in the stretch...they aren't quickening they are slowing because they are run at such a fast pace that is dirt racing...different to a turf race on fast ground when generally they are quickening at the 2 furlong pole

personally i don't like off track horses going onto the main track especially when it comes to dirt...and especially on there first run on it

on breeding DOW should like dirt but he hasn't been trained on it so it is a complete shot in the dark that he will handle kick back because kick back is what he is going to face here

i cannot give you an example of lengths as i cannot conclude which horse would handle the surface that is my point...on the al kazeem thing i haven't got a clue as the horse hasn't raced on dirt and isn't breed for dirt he would be a 100-1 shot if facing it for the first time in this race

the difference brigust is immense imo some occasionally handle it sakhee for example ran his heart out but was exceptional colt probably a stone better than DOW so maybe his class helped him but in the end it proved his undoing as a race horse when he was demolished but the proper dirt horse street cry in the dubai world cup

the surfaces are certainly not the same and cannot be used when comparing form imo and i certainly won't hold it against DOW if he runs badly and certainly won't be drawing comparisons on the form book on the back of his run
Report brigust1 October 24, 2013 11:21 AM BST
Blinding answer Harry. I know very little about dirt and always thought SYT was suspect in a hard finish as seen in the POW. I wonder how many people, like me, will assume that if DOW wins others could have done the same? On a positive note though he is a very late finisher in his races and if the go off hard as they sometimes do it may well play into his hands. The 10s might not be too bad a price. Problem is I think this group this year aren't great by any means. I wonder what the Yanks are like?
Report harry callaghan October 24, 2013 11:51 AM BST
i wouldn't take 10's with your money brig and i'm not jesting...if you are considering backing him back him on the american tote you will get at least 16's on the night imo...brutal i know brig but he isn't that good imo and he is facing kick back for the first time...i would want 20's at least and even then i would struggle to part with the cash

i will be hung drawn and quartered if he winsGrin

the yanks aren't a great bunch themselves tbf but they are a decent enough bunch...proper grade 1 dirt horses but nothing exceptional so you could argue if he improved he might have a squeak but it still comes down to kick back for me so he won't carry my cash...the one thing in his favour is he is coming fresh but similar to game on dude and most racing for me i prefer a horse to prep...

i am a big mucho macho man fan and like the way they are teaching him to switch off and he is finishing his races well...he loves santa anita...he got worried out of it last year against a very resistant fort larned who just wouldn't be denied in the stretch...fort larned himself hasn't impressed this year however and was just workmanlike in his prep i'd want a price on him to follow up...

there is a lurker for me in this and that is paynter who mucho beat last time he had a very tough trip that day and raced on the slow part of the track before challenging 5 wide into the stretch...i think he has been trained for this and i expect him to run a huge race at a big price...he is trained by baffert who also trains game on dude but i think he is just peaking at the right time and i expect him to be ridden differently...i will be backing him more than mucho as think mucho is a tad under the price of what i want to back him at...so he will be my main play
Report brigust1 October 24, 2013 12:21 PM BST
Don't laugh Harry but Animal Kingdom beat MMM in the Kentucky Derby and DOW beat Animal Kingdom in the Queen Anne. Plus the World Cup AK won wasn't a great race and through Planteur and the Dunlop horse DOW has chances. I know it's clutching at straws and I certainly don't think this bunch is great but stranger things have happened.
I will certainly take your advice about the American prices and if he does win you certainly won't hear anything from me. I thinks it's great people having different opinions and even better if they can put a sensible reason forward for having that opinion. If we were right all of the time we wouldn't have time to be on here I guess.
Report harry callaghan October 24, 2013 12:41 PM BST
i think animal kingdom had other things on his mind in the queen anne brig judging by the hard-on he had in the paddock!! debbie does dallas comes to mindGrin

i have always thought that turf horses are fine on polytrack as it seems to ride like turf that is why ravens pass won (he wouldn't of done on dirt imo) but also the reason why american breeders and trainers soon had it switched back to dirt because the proper dirt bred horses aren't as good on poly track...its in the action of a dirt horse... a turf horse is far more fluent in his action

ask yourself why the dubai world cup that always used to attract the best american dirt horses now does not
Report brigust1 October 24, 2013 1:31 PM BST
As I said Harry I think it's great when someone not only gives their selections but the reasons behind it. Makes absolute sense to me.
Report Stevie Gerrard October 24, 2013 1:46 PM BST
As a 2yo DOW did win at Deauville, which is a fibresand track and of course the dam is a half sister to Union Rags who was very useful on dirt. He's a big powerful horse who should be at his best on dirt imo.
Report brigust1 October 24, 2013 2:02 PM BST
You would have to say DOW isn't a top notcher but it depends what the US horses are like. If they are only an average bunch then if you can gt a price on the day it may be worth a small risk.
I wouldn't normally look at these races but it is the end of the flat for me and I tend to give the jumpers  couple of months to get going. So just a bit of friendly punting doesn't go amiss.
Report Shiekh Me Hand October 24, 2013 3:08 PM BST
This makes not a lot of sense to me so I doubt it will to you, but here goes...

(Other than Ravens Pass ... and because of the surface change I will leave him out)

I actually think that D.O.W is the best hope that the U.K have sent over for a while... yet, when I put him in the list of the horses, he would be really low in my estimations! (against previous raiders)
I just think that the way he travels in his races gives him an enormous chance, this race is going to be so fast and wild that *anything held up MUST be entered into your equations. We saw last year that only 2 horses were able to sustain the pace (Fort Larned and Mucho) G.O.D couldn't get near them and it is not shocking to expect the same only Baffert has had a year to ponder what happened and to instruct Mike Smith to GO, Go, Go from the off and i really cannot see anything other than an opening half of around 46' which would be of huge importance to a string travelling closer... D.O.W - I can see Joseph sitting in around 5th and getting a dream run, just far enough back off the strong pace but far enough in front of Ron the Greek et al to get first run.
Would be far more confident if they put up a "home" jock... Wonder whether Go Go will be off the sauce for the meeting...he would fit this horse very well.
Brigust, I'm with ya pal !!
Report Shiekh Me Hand October 24, 2013 3:13 PM BST
Good point Harry with regards to Dubai...

Be very surprised if we ever saw a top notch U.S horse over there again after what has happened to Royal Delta and Game on Dude the last couple of years.
Report laluche October 24, 2013 4:54 PM BST
the UK
Report brigust1 October 25, 2013 1:14 PM BST
Harry I don't know if you heard the Irish Handicapper on ATR today but he said DOW was with Tod Pletcher before going to France then to AOB and was initially being trained for the Kentucky Derby because of his pedigree then for some reason eventually ended up at Ballydoyle.
Report harry callaghan October 25, 2013 1:19 PM BST
i didn't see but heard...can't remember where, that he started in the states...

as i said earlier on the thread he is bred for dirt
Report brigust1 October 25, 2013 1:27 PM BST
I know, I just thought if you hadn't heard it would add to the decision making process. At the moment I'm leaning toward a bet on the day although he sounds like a definite runner. May split my stake and if the price is better than 10s ante post anywhere take that.
Report harry callaghan October 25, 2013 1:30 PM BST
don't take the 10 here pal you will get 14-16's on the american tote they won't want this horse over there as you know he isn't for me
Report Millerracing67 October 25, 2013 1:39 PM BST
Gd to hear The Fugue has the Turf as her main target.
Granted some gd fast ground she will take all the beating imo.
Report brigust1 October 25, 2013 1:48 PM BST
Agree about the turf and The Fugue just not sure when to get on. I get that H, just wondered if all the shorter priced horses will turn up.
Report harry callaghan October 25, 2013 1:59 PM BST
they will have faith game on dude and mucho will take the money over there they will be much shorter there than with the british books which will force DOW out to be a long shot imo
Report brigust1 October 25, 2013 2:08 PM BST
OK H I will wait.
Report harry callaghan October 25, 2013 2:13 PM BST
one thing i guarantee brigust is he will be longer than the 10 you are getting now
Report racingpoet October 28, 2013 5:31 PM GMT
Graydar is now out of the Dirt Mile with a quarter crack according to the Post website.
Report Fallen Angel October 28, 2013 7:10 PM GMT
Are there final declerations available for the breeders cup? I was particularly interested in the Filly and Mare turf
Report racingpoet October 28, 2013 7:55 PM GMT
The post draw for the races is starting now...
Report Shiekh Me Hand October 29, 2013 3:53 AM GMT
For Fallen Angel :- P.S hope that the one you were looking for is Tiz Flirtatious... I like her at home :)

1    Dank (GB)    Sir Michael Stoute    Ryan Moore    5/2
2    Romantica (GB)    Andre Fabre    Maxime Guyon    6/1
3    Tiz Flirtatious    Martin Jones    Julien Leparoux    7/2
4    Alterite (FR)    Chad Brown    John Velazquez    10/1
5    Lady of Shamrock John Sadler    Victor Espinoza    20/1
6    Marketing Mix    Thomas Proctor    Gary Stevens    7/2
7    Laughing (IRE)    Alan Goldberg    Jose Lezcano    8/1
8    Emollient    Bill Mott    Mike Smith    12/1
9    Qushchi (GB)    Graham Motion    Edgar Prado    20/1
10    Kitten's Dumplings Michael Maker    Joel Rosario    10/1
Report Shiekh Me Hand October 29, 2013 4:00 AM GMT
Also as a treat for Brigust - (From a great website- ànddownthestrecthteycome.com`)
Written by :-TFTribe

When perusing the Classic's Past Performances one of the field really stands out. With zero starts on conventional dirt, one on All Weather in England, and the rest on grass, you really have to question the tactic of placing Declaration of War here by Aiden O'Brien. But then again, questioning perhaps the best trainer in the world is probably a mistake. But he is a two-time Group 1 winner (the Queen Anne at 1m and the Juddmonte International at 1m 3/16ths) and Group 3 winner on the All Weather at Dundalk at 10.5 furlongs so he is not only of the class necessary, but he is of the highest class in the world.

Having been trained in Europe from the get go, Declaration of War has never really seen a dirt track before. He has no recorded works stateside and I cannot find if he has shipped in yet.

But his race record aside, Declaration is thoroughly American. Owned and campaigned by the Coolmore syndicate, Declaration of War has shown he is undoubtedly a top class miler. However, that does not mean he cannot get the 10 furlongs of the Classic. Ascot is uphill, as Animal Kingdom experienced in the G1-Queen Anne Stakes. Animal Kingdom, who proved himself on every surface and nearly every distance, was no match for Declaration of War that day at Royal Ascot when AK finished a distant 7th while Declaration of War ran away with the race over a Good turf. AK is one of the best and most powerful (albeit fragile) horses in the past few years, so that victory does nothing but credit Declaration of War's form.

By maybe the hottest sire in the world in War Front, Declaration of War is immediately set up for success in the States. With progeny winning over turf, dirt, and synthetics, no matter where in the world, the condition of the track, or the level of competition, you can't go wrong with War Front. When his stud fee was raised a few weeks ago from $80,000 to $150,000 I wasn't surprised. He's probably worth every penny and with his progeny's successes in Europe, the Euro breeders are probably knocking down Claiborne's door right now. I've been meaning to get to a profile of War Front (spoiler: he's really ugly), but I think for now it will suffice to say that the big guns standing right now in Lexington are Medaglia d'Oro, Bernardini, Tapit, Giant's Causeway, and War Front. The most remarkable thing about War Front, and I said much the same about Tapit, is that his runners right now are from crops before he was getting the best broodmares, so his successes will do nothing but become more frequent.

Out of the Rahy mare Tempo West, he is by far her best foal. Her next best is the nice stakes horse by Dynaformer, Vertiformer. The Rahy influence clearly shows in that her progeny not only see their best successes on the grass, but on some softer going, as evidenced by the ownership being willing to run in Europe and specifically France. But Rahy's best, minus one (we'll get to that one in a second), all saw their best successes on the turf. But not just American grass. He's gotten stakes winners in England, France, Dubai, and especially Japan (where they seemed to see out his runners) and including a World Horse of the Year in Fantastic Light. But the one great dirt lover of his progeny is the indomitable Serena's Song. While clearly a once in a generation talent, she relished the dirt and dominated her competition. If Declaration of War gets even 1% of that preference, he'll be just fine.

This colt exemplifies all of the traits his sire's get normally expresses: large, precocious, and attractive. But one thing sets him apart from a normal Dixie Union colt: G1 wins.
But most interestingly, Declaration of War's second dam is Tempo. Tempo is from a long line of DuPont owned mares, which in and of itself is a great sign. But she also produced Belmont winner Union Rags. Belmont winners tend to make solid sires, indicating a solid genetic make up. Now while drawing a conclusion about a Classic runner from his 1/4 relative may be a stretch, the strength of the female family is the true indicator here. With Rahy's champion sire pedigree and a family of stakes producers, he is set up for success on the dirt.

So in summary Declaration of War has a truly American pedigree which is coupled with a strong turf influence but also an ability to get a truly top class dirt horse. Distance will not be an issue in the Classic and in fact will probably be a strength since 1m in Europe probably runs a bit close to 9.5 furlongs. So even if 1m 2.5f isn't his best distance on the lawn, 10 panels will be ok for him on the dirt.

Honestly, I actually like his chances at first glance. Giant's Causeway almost got home in a similar position. I definitely see Declaration of War closing hard (and at a nice price) into a fast pace contested by Moreno, Game On Dude, and Fort Larned. But the great nullifier could be the track itself. It will require a great deal of attention on Friday to ensure the track isn't carrying speed to the line like it did last year.
Report Shiekh Me Hand October 29, 2013 4:10 AM GMT
My main interests as of tonight-

Vorda - Nap
Tiz Flirtatious
Giovanni Baldini
LAY Wise Dan

Anybody piling on anything after the draw tonight? :)
Report harry callaghan October 29, 2013 4:54 AM GMT
Post-position draw
Classic: 1 Last Gunfighter, 2 Paynter, 3 Planteur, 4 Moreno, 5 Declaration Of War, 6 Mucho Macho Man, 7 Fort Larned, 8 Palace Malice, 9 Game On Dude, 10 Will Take Charge, 11 Ron The Greek, 12 Flat Out.


disappointed with the draw for paynter so will be tough for him perfect for mucho and DOW fans

i like tiz flirtatious myself sheik although dank looks to have a solid chance
Report Fallen Angel October 29, 2013 9:53 AM GMT
@Shiekh Me Hand, I have actually backed Dank but am not best pleased with the draw. I might look to trade some of the stake back now. Felt with the Fugue unlikely to go she was the most likely winner and her performance at Arlington was top draw. Would have preferred a middle draw though so am not over excited. I will see how the market develops.

Thanks for the update, does't appear to be a day of the race market on here just yet.
Report brigust1 October 29, 2013 10:39 AM GMT
My point about DOW is solely based upon the comments from commentators that this is not a stellar field to beat and that appears to be backed up by their form.
I certainly wouldn't put DOW within shouting distance of Giants Causeway who he keeps being compared to.
Report sidthekid October 29, 2013 12:40 PM GMT
Re Dank;
Nothing wrong with her draw,
she will settle in 4-5th,she can come in between horses-Won at the Curragh doing so,
or she can come around horses,4 wide in her last race the "Beverly D" she Won,just outside the track record may I add.
Report EastLower Gooner October 29, 2013 1:27 PM GMT
Just think.....GOD has improved mentally and physically this year....isn't unusual to see these types get stronger as they get older. A theory of mine revolved around Rachel Alexandra not improving while Zenyatta seemed to kick on. wasn't hard to come up with a reason....the former endured one punishing race after another on dirt while the other has been living it up on the easier synthetics. so not a surprise to seem him come out and put in some of the performances he has this year

Also think the trainer and jockey have learnt from last year. No prep race to burn him out.....he does way to much in races so needs a break. Last year he wasn't spot on for the Classic so Baffert gave him the time he needed after that stunning Pacific Classic win....Mike won't make the same mistake again...won't gamble on holding GOD up.....he's fast enough  to wrestle the lead away from the lot.

One last thing....last season he was beatable....Dullahan ran right by him on the home turn...this year he's just been clinical. The Charles Town Classic with him slipping on those ultra tight bends but still getting the job done was top notch maturity.
Report Fallen Angel October 29, 2013 2:16 PM GMT
Assume that the breeders cup won't be offered in-play? I can never remember if it will be or not!
Report sidthekid October 29, 2013 2:18 PM GMT
In-PLay
Yes the races have in the past years.
Report Fallen Angel October 29, 2013 2:19 PM GMT
ah okay that would be great news!
Report sidthekid October 29, 2013 2:32 PM GMT
BC Distaff - (Ladies Classic)
I was very impressed by the way that Princess of Slymar went past Royal Delta,at Belmont.
Royal Delta did Not look herself of old and never looked likely to get away from the field when she went past the leader.
Beholder is a quick filly who should lead over this track from Royal Delta,
These two may set up the race for  - Princess of Slymar.
Report sidthekid October 30, 2013 1:28 PM GMT
Dank glows in the sun ahead of F&M Turf assignment

Dank may not be the most elegantly named BC candidate but she certainly looked the part when stepping out on to the track for the first time this morning.

Ridden by an exercise rider with Moore yet to arrive at Santa Anita, Sir Michael Stoute's filly looked big, strong and perfectly relaxed after galloping round the outside of the track and completing a couple of circuits of the paddock.

Whether the addition of lasix played a significant part in her improved performance in the Beverly D at Arlington is impossible to say for sure, but a swift look at the video of Dank's commanding performance there marks her out as a very strong contender indeed.
Report EastLower Gooner October 30, 2013 8:25 PM GMT
Silver Max looks a decent bet @ 6/1 eachway. Put Wise Dan away last time out and can do so again. No excuses for Wise Dan. He's won on all surfaces and can race wide....got beat fair and square.
Report Fallen Angel October 31, 2013 8:25 AM GMT
very exciting that the meeting is nearly here. Probably more interested than previous years. It is a shame that virtually all the European runners have to run on lasix, it is about time that these international rules could be aligned. It would be great if Olymipic Glory could win whilst being Lasix free, always want to hear the European horses running well even if I haven't backed them with cold hard cash. 

Roll on tomorrow evening!
Report brigust1 October 31, 2013 10:05 AM GMT
I have my fears about Olympic Glory. He doesn't sound like he has been trained for this race unlike Excelebration last year but I hope he has. TH was always talking about his other miler going for this race. I hope they decided because this one is working better and not because the other one isn't ready.
His two Group 1 wins are really suspect with the 2nd horses not Gr1 horses. His proximity to Dawn Approach in the Coventry is devalued by the 3rd horse. The only piece of solid form he has is in Deauville behind Moonlight Cloud. That is better than any of Excelebration,s form in my opinion but it could have been a one off on a straight track. If it wasn't, and there is a possibility it wasn't then he has a chance.
Wise Dan has been campaigned to be unbeaten but that misfired last time. They have avoided any tough races so he will rock up in top form. Lets hope the Brits stuff him.
Report brigust1 October 31, 2013 10:06 AM GMT
*RH (Richard Hannon)
Report sintonian October 31, 2013 12:41 PM GMT
My bets are The Fugue at 3/1, the opposition don't look in the same form as last year whilst she looks an improved 4yo.

Bobby's Kitten in the Juvenile Turf eachway at 4/1. He has a nice turn of foot and is well drawn. AOB's runner seems to be getting a lot of attention/making the market.

Mucho Macho Man in the Classic 9/2 - he hacked up in his prep for this and has a better draw this time around, drawn 6 as opposed to 11 when 2nd last year.
Report brigust1 October 31, 2013 12:55 PM GMT
Hi Sin. I think The Fugue should win but struggle to bet the girls against the boys. She has already done it though and the AOB horse looks the only real danger. And he is a Group 1 winner. Not sure how the prices will work but hope to take their prices on both on the day. Being a bigger price I will make him my winner.

The mile will be interesting. I have never rated Wise Dan and thought we would beat him this time but had hoped the other Hannon horse would come. Still there you are. I see nothing in the home team beating him so it looks like Olympic Glory at their prices and Wise Dan at ours. Again given the prices I will make OG my winner.

I know nothing about the dirt horses at all. I may have a small punt on DOW before the mile only because if OG wins I think he will be shorter.

Not really my scene but it's good fun and there is a lot of poor racing ahead.
Report sintonian October 31, 2013 1:19 PM GMT
The only dirt race i'm betting in is the Classic where there is lots of info/form/evidence available.

I'm a big fan of DOW but I can't back him for the Classic. AOB has a shocking record in the States and all of his runners there are no more than afterthoughts to my mind. If he does crack the big one then it'll be a great achievement.

The Fugue was spectacularly impressive at York over 1m4f but less so in the Irish Champion on softer ground. A tight turning track on quick ground will be right up her street. Magician has not run since Royal Ascot and i'm not sure AOB has divulged what his injury was?? Do you know?

Wise Dan was not supposed to run on the polytrack last time out. Heavy rain meant organisers had to to switch turf races to the polytrack so I think he can be excused his defeat last time out, especially given his wide draw. That said, I would not want to back him at Evens. It is a watch race for me, if he is none the worse for his last race, he should win.
Report brigust1 October 31, 2013 2:35 PM GMT
Good summary Sin. I will be having a punt of DOW because I think AOB has only just got to know him. Plus I don't rate the current dirt crop, their form is not great imo. Though I have to say my knowledge is very limited. I often have svers etc but not in this case it will just be a punt.
I have no idea what was wrong with The Magician but as AOB blames himself for running him at Ascot I'm hoping they have got things right now. He is Gr1 winner and has won at 10f so may not be a lost cause. This is one for the home team I think.
Report harry callaghan October 31, 2013 3:39 PM GMT
brigust just out of interest why do you want to back wise dan at there prices and olympic glory at ours??

for what it is worth i think wise dan will be longer over there around the 11-8 mark rather than here at evens at present...plus vice versa with olympic glory who i think will be around 4-1 over there and 6-1 on here today if you want it
Report SEATHESTARS....NO1 October 31, 2013 11:37 PM GMT
Can anyone tell me what bias (if any) the draw has please at Santa Anita for the 00:35, 23:40, 22:22 and 19:43 races on Saturdays card please?

Yes i am looking at our British runners etc, it does interest me how well they do each year and though i usually just like to watch them i sometimes have a little flutter just out of interest.
Report judorick November 1, 2013 12:04 AM GMT
My Bets are:

Mucho Macho Man - Classic
Dank - F&M Turf
Big Blue Kitten - Turf
Justin Phillip - Sprint
Wise Dan - Mile
New Year's Day - Juvenile
She's A Tiger - Juvenile Fillies
Report harry callaghan November 1, 2013 8:27 AM GMT
War primed to break Ballydoyle's Classic duck
By Jon Lees 6:49PM 31 OCT 2013

AIDAN O'BRIEN yesterday revealed the spectacular outcome of the secret gallop he put Declaration Of War through as he prepared the colt for the biggest assignment of his career Saturday when he will attempt to end Ballydoyle's so far fruitless quest for a Breeders' Cup Classic victory.

RELATED LINKS

    Breeders Cup Classic card

After watching his five Breeders' Cup contenders stretch their legs on the Santa Anita track for the first time O'Brien said that Declaration Of War's work on Southwell's Fibresand had been more impressive than Giant's Causeway when he had a similar exercise before being touched off by Tiznow in 2000.

Convinced the Juddmonte International and Queen Anne Stakes winner represents his best chance yet of breaking a 12-runner losing streak in the $5 million race, he flew the horse to Nottinghamshire two weeks ago for a mile gallop designed to replicate the alien terrain that has regularly confounded nearly all his Classic dirt challengers.

"He followed two Group 1 winners over a mile out of stalls and he sat in behind the two of them," said O'Brien on Thursday. "He quickened up very well in the straight and won his work a long way. I don't know how far. When we brought Giant's Causeway to Southwell he came up with a lead horse but came up the straight with him and didn't pull away. This horse pulled away but I don't know what that means.

"He did get kickback and we would have probably preferred more but he came out and travelled so strong Joseph couldn't get him back into it. He was on the heels of the two horses in front of him rather than a little bit back off but that's what he does in all his races. It looked very impressive visually, but how many of us have seen work being very impressive?"

Declaration Of War led the Ballydoyle contingent out onto the main track for the first time since their arrival yesterday for a trot and gentle canter. Joseph O'Brien, whose only ride is in the Classic, accompanied the string on a track pony and is saving his first experience of racing on dirt for Saturday.

"Joseph didn't ride him this morning either, he rode the hack," said O'Brien. "Joseph knows and no one understands more about the horses. Dean [Gallagher] rides him in his canters, Joseph rides him in his work. He's had a lot of firsts all the way along and this is another first."

Only Shamshon of the European challengers failed to come out of his barn for track exercise on Thursday. "He is just having a lead out," said Richard Hannon jnr who tried Olympic Glory on the turns of the turf track. "He turned very well this morning and Hughesie is happy with him."

Ron The Greek, a leading US contender for the Classic, was ruled out owing to a quarter crack.

The going on the turf course was yesterday officially 'firm', while conditions on the main dirt track were 'fast'. There was no rain forecast for Friday or Saturday, with temperatures set to reach 29C


this will cheer the war supporters
shame about ron the greek
Report DickTurpin November 1, 2013 3:39 PM GMT
My selections :

F&M TURF : DANK
TURF : BIG BLUE KITTEN
SPRINT : PRIVATE ZONE
MILE : WISE DAN
CLASSIC : MMM

GL with your picks.................
Report Millerracing67 November 1, 2013 7:51 PM GMT
The Fugue winning The Turf 2moro nite is my only play.
Few £££ on her ante-p for this race (6.4 & 4.6)
Hope the ground stays fast & she gets a gd clean run at them (take all the beating imo)
Gd luck punters Cool
Report harry callaghan November 1, 2013 8:26 PM GMT
Yep best of luck to all playing...cease for me
Report harry callaghan November 1, 2013 8:26 PM GMT
Yep best of luck to all playing...cease for me
Report Fallen Angel November 1, 2013 9:38 PM GMT
A good boast to some of the 2000 Guineas form lines with Outstrip victory there. Both Toormore and War Command.
Report brandyontherocks November 1, 2013 10:55 PM GMT
Booooooom
Report sintonian November 2, 2013 7:58 AM GMT
What's the booooom for ?
Report sintonian November 2, 2013 7:59 AM GMT
What a shocker of a ride on Bobby's Kitten. The owner was openly berating the jockey afterwards in the paddock area. Says the jock will never ride the horse again. Shocked
Report brandyontherocks November 2, 2013 8:09 AM GMT
Backed the filly sint. Too many ciders, overly excited Crazy
Report Millerracing67 November 2, 2013 1:29 PM GMT
Very impressive win by the Charlie Hills 2yo filly last nite.
She looks a real 1000gns type for next year if going on well from 2 to 3.
Very gd to see her back-up her last big G1 win over here against Rizeena.
High class filly over 1mile for next year on those 2 runs, & granted fast ground in next years 1000gns she will take some beating imo.
Report judorick November 2, 2013 7:15 PM GMT
My Bets are:

Mucho Macho Man - Classic
Dank - F&M Turf
Big Blue Kitten - Turf
Justin Phillip - Sprint
Wise Dan - Mile
New Year's Day - Juvenile
She's A Tiger - Juvenile Fillies

Although she has crossed the line first we could be chucked out here
Report judorick November 2, 2013 9:50 PM GMT
BOOOM NEW YEARS DAY

kerchingExcitedCool
Report harry callaghan November 2, 2013 10:13 PM GMT
have waited a whole year for point of entry...are getting a decent overlay here...last work much better
Report harry callaghan November 2, 2013 10:29 PM GMT
no more tips from meShocked
Report judorick November 2, 2013 11:49 PM GMT
judorick 01 Nov 13 01:04 Joined: 27 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 19,168 | Blogger: judorick's blog
My Bets are:

Mucho Macho Man - Classic
Dank - F&M Turf
Big Blue Kitten - Turf
Justin Phillip - Sprint
Wise Dan - Mile
New Year's Day - Juvenile
She's A Tiger - Juvenile Fillies

Only the three winners and one DQd from first from 6 runners

still MMM to go
Report brigust1 November 3, 2013 12:07 AM GMT
WD Jud. Can't see MMM winning though. Although I don't follow the US racing I do know he was 3rd to Animal Kingdom in a poor renewal of the Kentucky Derby. I don't think the 2nd horse has won a race. And now, after all this time, he has won his first Group 1. Either he is improving very late or got lucky. No bet for me DOW is too short and I can't see a saver.
Report harry callaghan November 3, 2013 12:07 AM GMT
hell of a gamble on the war horse here...hammered it
Report judorick November 3, 2013 12:13 AM GMT
drifted from 6 to 7 harry mate
Report harry callaghan November 3, 2013 12:15 AM GMT
5-1 with the books...starting to drift now but has already taken the money
Report brigust1 November 3, 2013 12:28 AM GMT
No bet for me HC. I should have taken the 10s in the week.
Report harry callaghan November 3, 2013 12:29 AM GMT
ye apologies for that brig didn't realise they were going to smash it to bits
Report judorick November 3, 2013 12:42 AM GMT
Gary Stevens owes me one for getting beat in the Juvenile Fillies by a total rag
Report judorick November 3, 2013 12:43 AM GMT
no horse older than 5 has ever won the Classic

Game On Dude is 6 years old
Report brigust1 November 3, 2013 12:50 AM GMT
WD Jud.
Report judorick November 3, 2013 12:53 AM GMT
just the 4 winners and a DQ from 7 selections
Report Steamship November 3, 2013 12:54 AM GMT
Tops off a very good flat season for you judo
Report judorick November 3, 2013 12:56 AM GMT
aye been absolutely frickin brilliant flat season thanks steamship mate cheers
Report judorick November 3, 2013 1:04 AM GMT
This is what I sent to my small gang of punting mates yesterday:

I have, as you probably expect, had a good look at this meeting and these are my conclusions for the Saturday only. Hopefully, we get a few good shouts with these:

12.35 am The Breeders Cup Classic 10 furlongs

The big race of the meeting, set to be run on dirt rather than the Pro-Ride (polytrack) surface that has been used before which greatly favours the American bred and trained horses. No horse older than 5 has ever won this race and I immediately dismissed all the older horses which includes the favourite (trained by Bob Baffert who is yet to win this race). Of the three year olds, Palace Malice looks the likeliest candidate having won one of the triple Crown races but he was well beaten last time
out and most winners of this won their last start so I am overlooking him. I really doubt the likes of Declaration of War and others are going to challenge.

The two strongest candidates by far look like Fort Larned and Mucho Macho Man who were 1st and second in last years race, separated by half a length with 6 lengths back to the third. Looking at that race, it appears MUCHO MACHO MAN was greatly inconvenienced by the wide draw and he comes in here on the back of a really solid win. With a much better draw and with the legend that is Gary Stevens riding he has got to be worth a strong bet to avenge a rather unlucky defeat.


7.05 Juvenile Fillies Dirt

There are a few key trials of which the winners were Secret Compass, She's a Tiger, Artemis Agrotera and Designer Legs. Winners of this race have rarely
been outside the first two in any race and have normally won their last start. Only Artemis Agrotera meets these criteria but she fails on a couple of other key trends and I think SHE'S A TIGER is a major player. I really like the in running comment she got last time:

"Chased leaders until quickened to lead over 3f out and soon quickened clear, pressed and driven well over 1f out, found extra and 1 length clear 1f out,
battled on gamely until worn down and headed last strides"

My assessment of that is that she hit the front too soon and that if she had been asked to quicken later in the race (held on to for another 200 yards) she would have won. I am pretty sure Gary Stevens will time it better this time and she looks a massive ew bet to me, as I can't see she will be out of the frame. At 9/2 a solid bet. You could have a saver on Artemis if you wanted


7.43 Fillies & Mares Turf

The Brits have a great record in this and the French and Irish don't. Sir Michael Stoute's DANK gagged up in a Grade 1 last time out and looks head and shoulders above these. With Ryan Moore doing the steering this is one of the most likely winners of the meeting and is a clear 7/4 favourite. Cheer this baby home!


8.21 Fillies & Mares Sprint (Dirt)

This is virtually impossible to call, the favourite Groupie Doll has the best form coming but I suspect there is massive variance in here and would not be surprised by a huge priced winner. No bet recommended, get a beer and a sandwich time!

9.05 The Turf Sprint

An almost impossible race to call and another I will be sitting out I'm afraid


9.43 The Juvenile (Dirt)

No European entry this time and this race has been dominated by trainers Baffert, Pletcher and O'Neill in recent years. They field a strong bunch between them
including unbeaten favourite Havana (trained by Pletcher who has won 2 of the the last 3 renewals and owned by the Coolmore Mafia) and Tap It Rich (Baffert, impressive winner of sole start over C&D). However, the one I like at a decent price is Baffert's other horse NEW YEAR'S DAY who easily beat Bond Holder before that one won a Grade 1 over the Breeders Cup C& D. New Year's Day is not typical in that he has not contested a Grade 1 but that's why you are getting 12/1+.

Havana has to be respected but he flashed his tail last time out and I don't like that in a 3/1 fav, Tap It Rich is once raced which is a negative, Strong Mandate
blew out completely last time and We Miss Artie has never raced on dirt. Any other winner than those mentioned would be a shock winner. I'll be having a modest ew bet with my fingers crossed on NEW YEARS DAY


10.22 The Turf

I really wanted to be with The Fugue here as she is really top class and lovely very fast going which she will get. Problem is she is taking on the boys and fillies have an abysmal record in the race so at 2/1 I reluctantly pass her over as there is no value in the price to me. I really don't like the second fav Point of Entry either
so looking at the rest I find it hard to believe A. O'Brien will produce Magician able to win off a long lay off even though I do like the horse. The one that catches my eye is BIG BLUE KITTEN who is a deep hold up horse that comes with a swooping run late, pure American turf runner, loves the firm and stays the trip well, will appreciate pace in the race and was an unlucky loser last time. At around 7/1 he is well worth an ew bet and cross fingers the gaps come when he starts charging for the front

11.01 The Sprint (Dirt)

Few of these look good enough really and the two at the head of the market rightly hold that position and I expect them to fight it out. Private Zone just touched off
JUSTIN PHILLIP in a barging match in a Grade 1 at Belmont and at the prices it is an automatic ew bet for me especially from a better draw.


11.40 The Breeders Cup Mile

A cracking race and the evens favourite WISE DAN looks one of the bankers of the evening. The Hannon horse Olympic Glory will find this altogether different from the QEII and cannot be backed and this should be a nice warm up before Stevens does the business for us in the Classic

Should be a great evening!

Betting Advice

1. Solid bets & Bankers:

DANK
WISE DAN

2. Very Strong EAch Way Bets

MUCHO MACHO MAN
JUSTIN PHILLIP
SHE'S A TIGER

3. Slightly Speculative Each Way Bets

BIG BLUE KITTEN
NEW YEARS DAY

Anyway, as ever, fingers crossed I've assessed these with some accuracy and we get fun, excitement and a few quid. Good luck if you have a go. I haven't even thought about exotic betting (forecasts, tricasts etc) but you might feel like having a go for shillings. I will just be trying to make a profit from win and place markets

Best wishes
Report Shiekh Me Hand November 3, 2013 3:04 AM GMT
Judorick - Amazing performance chap.

For me - WORST breeders in history !! Thank god that's over...never looked like winning and then Wise Dan... jeez.

Great thread for discussion, Well Done winners
Report judorick November 3, 2013 3:52 AM GMT
Cool
Report sintonian November 3, 2013 6:41 AM GMT
2 of my 3 bets were beaten by bad rides. And that's not sour grapes I think it is fair to say. Anyways, more than happy with MMM winning though I did not stay up to watch the race.
Report Graeme83 November 3, 2013 10:19 AM GMT
I don't want to go on an indignified rant, but i had a good bc and hope you all enjoyed it. Onto the big race on Tuesday. GL.
Report FatoteSport November 3, 2013 12:16 PM GMT
Well done Judo and all other contributors.

The Fugue ended costing me a large 5fold, but still made a wee bit on the trebles. Just about made back the losses from the devastating event that was Champions Day!

I do love the Breeders Cup, and it has to be said yesterday's races were very exciting on the whole. I did find it odd that the big one didn't go to a photo. Does that work differently in the US? The anticipation of the announcement over the tannoy is what it's all about!!

Onwards to Melbourne, and then perhaps my fave meeting of the year - HK :)
Report judorick November 3, 2013 12:20 PM GMT
the DQ cost me a 5 fold too but that was fair enough, I knew it was getting kicked out so can't complain
Report Millerracing67 November 3, 2013 5:47 PM GMT
Top performances from the Euro turf horses & a great effort from DOW in the Classic on dirt. WD all winners over the last 2nites at the Breeders.
Pity The Fugue got ran out of it close home in The Turf for myself & a gd few others no doubt Plain. Ran her heart out only to be gunned down late by the classy 3yo Magician & the excellent Moore (great ride) think she made her move a bit to soon & just ran out of gas in the last 100yds, might have made the diff in the end.
Roll on the new Flat season Cool.
Report EastLower Gooner November 4, 2013 7:45 PM GMT
The Fugue...

Got busted out of the Pick6 (paid out 47k) by The Fugue. covered 2/3 horses in all the races (4 in the Turf Sprint) but singled The Fugue.

Lesson learnt....will definitely have another crack at that next year. Very decent value out there in these deep pools.
Report judorick November 4, 2013 7:50 PM GMT
ouch!! unlucky
Report EastLower Gooner November 4, 2013 8:13 PM GMT
btw it will be interesting to see how far Giovanni Boldini can get in time because he went some killer fractions in that juvenile and his sire and dam sire were both top dirt horses...Dam Sire by AP Indy no less...Classic Winner. Could see him start off in something like the UAE Derby...100 point race for the Kentucky Derby so win and you're in.
Report sintonian November 5, 2013 4:57 AM GMT
As did Bobby's Kitten. Shocking ride on him.
Report rhinestone November 10, 2013 5:46 PM GMT
evening brig Happy

Well what can I say, you must go next year. Santa Anita was superb, way better than i thought it would be.

Track:-

Now I did buy a good seat (upper reserved seating $230). I did this as at Churchill Downs I got a grandstand seat which was a metal bench with a number on it....and considering it was freezing with wind swirling in it was not good at all.

The seat was cushioned and very comfortable, and good that you didn't need to stand up to let people past on your aisle. Situated about 50 yds past the winning post, with a big screen directly in front. You can see the start of every race, down the chute to the right as you look at the track, and the start of the quirky sprint course. You can walk along the front of the stand near to the winning post etc. The seats to the left were brilliant with tables for 4-6 and your own TV, I'd imagine these would be $350+ to $1000 depending on where situated.

From what I seen of the grandstand it was better than Churchill Downs again. One thing though if your not going to get an expensive seat you must make sure your far enough back under the stand as you would have just melted if not. The whole place was much more like a UK racecourse than Churchill Downs with many good concourses. Screens everywhere (didn't see one at CD).

One thing that impressed me greatly was the fact it was so easy to move about and get served etc. I went to the toilet about 4 times, and not once had to wait, just straight to the urinal. I went for a drink 4-5 times and once again didn't have to wait (also those metal bottles of lager were only about $6 and you could take anywhere). I went for a Turkey sarny (which was suprisingly nice) and had to wait about 5th in the line. Putting bets on there were only about 2-3 people in front each time. About 4 shops to buy merchandise. I really don't know where the 58k people were Crazy

And the views? Well i'm sure they were shown on TV, amazing backdrop Cool

Area:-

I stayed in West Hollywood as I wanted to be near everything.  $70[inc tips] from the airport. I was on Sunset Strip, about 2 miles from the Hollywood sign, about 3 miles from Beverly Hills and Rodeo Drive for the shopping Love Santa Monica was about 10 miles away (i wanted a beach trip). Downtown LA about 5 miles.


The track was some 24 miles from West Hollywood which sounds a lot ($80[inc tips]) taxi but if you'd stayed in Arcadia or Pasadena to be closer to the track you would have had a trek to the places mentioned above. Also not sure if there'd be much to do in Arcadia? There was a taxi line outside the track.

Any questions fire away I should be able to help a bit.
Report brigust1 November 13, 2013 3:59 PM GMT
Hi Rhinestone. Thanks for replying. Sounds great and looked great on the television, we are definitely going next year.
Sounds like you didn't hire a car did you manage without one? When did you book up the accommodation and flights? We will be spending 2 weeks minimum and still haven't decided if it would be better to go a week beforehand or nearer the time. 
Can you just turn up at the track in the morning to watch the workouts? 
You wanted to be near the beach, was it within easy walking distance?
Report rhinestone November 13, 2013 5:54 PM GMT
No didn't hire a car. I'd say it'd be a good idea to hire one, especially as your in the area longer....could venture further away like Malibu....not sure how far death valley is?
Managed ok....taxi's expensive but got the bus to Santa Monica one day as the stop was outside the hotel and it only cost $1.25 to go about 10 mile! Laugh
A car would be the way forward though.

As above beach is about 10 miles from Hollywood area, so would be 30 mile ish from near the racetrack. There's a good stretch of coast from Santa Monica down to Marina Del Rey which is where all the yachts are. There's the option of doing a tour, places that do lots of different types of tour from anything between $44 and $129....the big one goes hollywood sign, movie star homes, rodeo drive, then all the beaches and downtown LA etc, about 5-7 hr long i think it said.

I did want to go to the aquarium of the pacific which is further away in Long Beach, about 35 miles but didn't make it....was the day of the shootings at the airport.

Only booked the flights about 3 month before and the hotels about 6-8 weeks before. The hotel in LA dropped £200 from when i looked at it 2 days previously, was going to book that anyway! I'd imagine hotels nearer the track might sell out quicker.

Not sure about turning up at the track to watch workouts....maybe worth tweeting Matt Chapman he should know, or if you ain't on twits i can?
Report brigust1 November 15, 2013 2:42 PM GMT
Thanks for that Rhinestone. Having been discussing with the others who are going to try to find out what questions need answering. At the moment we are going the week before then moving on up to San Francisco. The rest depends upon whether we go for two or three weeks. If I have any questions I will send a message.
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