Horse Antepost
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14 Oct 13
09:54
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10 Nov 07
Well the great meeting is nearly upon us
Looking at the races so far looks very interesting will the fugue take in the turf or filly and mare turf??
she looks very likely to go there fresh and if taking in the turf she is likely to be met by novellist, camealot, last years winner little mike and point of entry who has been injured with a condylar fracture when winning the manhattan in june...he faces a race against time in order to be ready for the race with a prep ruled out...
the fugue an unlucky loser in last years mares race is favourite and i think they will go for the turf...she is better fresh and has to have a great chance but this is a very tough race and she will have to be at her very best to win
novellist will bring some much needed class to the race if turning up...if whatever stopped him from running in the arc has been sorted out he would have a chance
Wise dan is a favourite of mine and goes in the mile but will have to recover from an unexpected defeat in the shadwell mile when the race was switched to polytrack...silver max his conqueror in the shadwell is likely to reoppose but isn't in the same league as wise dan on turf
as much as i love the horse i am keen to get him at around evens but as yet the race lacks depth...(no allegiance here) with the ground going soft at ascot there is a chance toronado or dawn approach may go and it is also hoped moonlight cloud travels just to help the book as wouldn't like her on a fast track although she appears to be handling better ground better this year...however she has travelled abroad from her native france on 4 occasions and been beaten on all 4 starts
aiden o'brien is likely to send a strong team and his team are fresher than normal with DOW and camelot missing recent engagements because of ground plus he is likely to chose from a number of 2 year olds...war command followers will be keen he doesn't go but i think he might with the trainer seeming to have quite a poor bunch of juveniles this year...
declaration of war is likely to take in the classic but he has never faced the kick back he will face on the dirt...3 wins against mediocre opposition on polytrack will give connections hope but there is a strong army of proper dirt horses from the states this year mucho macho man, fort larned and game on dude are proper group 1 dirt horses and as tough as he is, he will have to be, to try and even emulate the stables great horse giants causeway who was just eye balled out of it by the great tiznow in a rousing stretch duel in 2000 that took the whole length of the churchill down stretch to be decided
anyway plenty of debate to be had
Looking at the races so far looks very interesting will the fugue take in the turf or filly and mare turf??
she looks very likely to go there fresh and if taking in the turf she is likely to be met by novellist, camealot, last years winner little mike and point of entry who has been injured with a condylar fracture when winning the manhattan in june...he faces a race against time in order to be ready for the race with a prep ruled out...
the fugue an unlucky loser in last years mares race is favourite and i think they will go for the turf...she is better fresh and has to have a great chance but this is a very tough race and she will have to be at her very best to win
novellist will bring some much needed class to the race if turning up...if whatever stopped him from running in the arc has been sorted out he would have a chance
Wise dan is a favourite of mine and goes in the mile but will have to recover from an unexpected defeat in the shadwell mile when the race was switched to polytrack...silver max his conqueror in the shadwell is likely to reoppose but isn't in the same league as wise dan on turf
as much as i love the horse i am keen to get him at around evens but as yet the race lacks depth...(no allegiance here) with the ground going soft at ascot there is a chance toronado or dawn approach may go and it is also hoped moonlight cloud travels just to help the book as wouldn't like her on a fast track although she appears to be handling better ground better this year...however she has travelled abroad from her native france on 4 occasions and been beaten on all 4 starts
aiden o'brien is likely to send a strong team and his team are fresher than normal with DOW and camelot missing recent engagements because of ground plus he is likely to chose from a number of 2 year olds...war command followers will be keen he doesn't go but i think he might with the trainer seeming to have quite a poor bunch of juveniles this year...
declaration of war is likely to take in the classic but he has never faced the kick back he will face on the dirt...3 wins against mediocre opposition on polytrack will give connections hope but there is a strong army of proper dirt horses from the states this year mucho macho man, fort larned and game on dude are proper group 1 dirt horses and as tough as he is, he will have to be, to try and even emulate the stables great horse giants causeway who was just eye balled out of it by the great tiznow in a rousing stretch duel in 2000 that took the whole length of the churchill down stretch to be decided
anyway plenty of debate to be had
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Backed The Fugue for the Turf, that should be the race for her imo.
Fingers X. |
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I do like Dank for the Filly & Mare Turf
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harry camelot was retired earlier in the week.
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They've been stringing people along all summer. He was never going to race again.
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Game On Dude has been on a different level this year. One big win after another so will keep in simple this year. GOD main bet and try and work some doubles / trebles into him.
Cant believe how easily he took the Pacific Classic....really impressive romp. ---- One horse to watch out for is Graydar...hopefully he goes for the Dirt Mile but you never know with Pletcher...his other Classic Contenders have taking big losses recently so wouldn't surprise me if he got in. Anyways he's seriously top class. |
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Looking forward to the fugue and hopefully Moonlight Cloud will run.
look at the entry prices, shame it is on the west coast. Advanced online* General Admission prices: $10 for Championship Friday and $25 for Championship Saturday. Buy Now General Admission prices at the gate: $15 for Championship Friday and $40 for Championship Saturday. |
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mighty moyes was withdrawn the day i put the post up
i like game on dude gooner been really impressed by him this year although he hasn't really beat much really although done it easy... its possible being trained for the world cup scuppered his chances last year and i like him when he is pressing the speed or even on the lead...he is 6 now but his chances depend if he gets the lead for me he seems to be best when loose and allowed to dominate which i'm not sure he will get here with fort larned in opposition i have to say i am a big fan of mucho macho man for this he has just shown nice improvement through the season and now they are settling him he appears to be finishing his races... i am hoping for a speed duel up front here with fort larned who was only workmanlike in his prep along with game on dude both likely to be on the speed |
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Aah Breeders Cup Musings... Wonderful.
For me, I have a number of options that are taking my eye. - Juvenile Fillies Turf- Vorda. - Can not have any of the home fillies, Clenor is the fav on the strength of what it has done out here but it has beaten nothing. Vorda will destroy this field if they (and I seriously hope they will) bring her over. - Dirt Mile - As mentioned above, Graydar is going to be exceptionally tough to beat. there is a horse coming in from Canada called Broadway Empire- This is my only danger, though let me be clear, there is no way on this earth that Broadway Empire can win, it would be the only danger in that it goes off like a scolded cat and frightens the life out of me that it would be akin to a "Golden Freeze and Carvills Hill affair) - If Graydar gets an uncontested lead, it is game over. - BC Distaff - (Ladies Classic) - This Royal Delta has never ever let me down, I personally am very wary of Bill Mott and how much he puts into the preparation for his Grade 1 horses - I was very impressed by the way that Princess of Slymar went past the queen but I am still a little wary of that race. Again, I look at this race from a pace angle, I personally think that Royal Delta improved (from an already high mark) for the switch to more aggressive tactics. This race has the look of only 4/5 runners but the problem is that the local "Queen" Beholder is a seriously quick filly who's been nigh on impossible to lead over this track. Are these two also gonna cut each others throats and set up the race for a closer? - Princess of Slymar is done for the year and aside frm Close Hatches, I really do not have any other fillies in mind for the race. - Mile - I cannot have Wise Dan - I really however cannot find anything that comes into the race in any kind of form to beat him. I was seriously gutted when the decision to keep Moonlight Cloud for Hong Kong was taken as I thought this was a great opp for the french charge. Connections of Wise Dan have spent all year ducking the opposition and (maybe kudos to them) going for the easier carats elsewhere. The option to bypass the Arlington Million, Stephen Foster, heck they could have even gone to the Pacific Classic...but no, they came our way and took the woodbine mile against a shower of locals and a euro pig. The decision to run at Keenland when the race was taken from the turf was somewhat baffling to me, knowing that they had avoided all the races not on turf prior to this race. Silver Max is not a grade 1 horse in any country and I would not be too strong on Wise Dan especially after that performance. - Obviously is another entering the race on the back of a confounding defeat... he had a wonderful trip just rated off the pace and then took command coming into the stretch only to be run down by No Jet Lag- (ex euro now handled by Simon Callaghan) - that was not that impressive but even less what that he was run out of the place as well... I have a feeling that Jersey Joe Talamo is gonna have him on the lead going through ridiculous splits in the mile and try to burn off the opposition. What wins the race at this juncture I am not too sure... but at evens today, I'm laying Wise Dan. Classic - Look at the Pacific Classic re-run and tell me how Game on Dude is gonna get beat here... then again go back to last year and tell me how is this the same horse? G.O.D cannot be touched in California at any time of the year until November then he becomes a different horse! The O.P is correct in that this race is gonna be fast, we all know that everybody appears to want the lead and if as discussed, Pletcher for some crazy reason runs Graydar here, then we have yet another front runner. - So, lets skip to the closers..how far back are they gonna be? The only 2 "closers" I see are - Ron the Greek and "Will Take Charge" - I cannot have either of them, I agree with the O.P that the best trip in the race could be there for "Mucho Macho Man" I just don't think he can win... If Game on Dude can get relaxed in front, forget it is November, and watch a replay of the Pacific Classic before the race.. He will do for me  Will have more to say nearer the time but for me today, bet of the Breeders Cup is VORDA. |
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what are you game on dudes fans view on him not prepping for this??
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Great Wise Dan summary Shiekh. I thought Hannon looked like swerving it with Toronado and sending Olympic Glory but Hannon Jnr has just said he is off to the US and he is fit and well. I won't be laying Wise Dan but backing Toronado if there it is better value.
Will be going |
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Oh bugger, I had to pull out of going this morning Brig...I'm devastated !!
Now anybody who wants to buy my ticket and hotel room at motel next to the Hundread to One Club? Seriously Gutted!! |
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I'm all over Toronado if he turns up, Can see him getting a sweet trip hard on the snaff behind the crazy pace !! COme on Hughesy !!!
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I mean't to say I am going next year. Is accommodation easy to find. We are making it a longer holiday taking in the sights of LA and SF, Disney, Alcatraz etc. Can you rent a villa? Does it have to be motels? My experience of motels has been pretty gloomy.
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I'm going this year brigust, staying in West Hollywood. 20 miles from the track, but seems the best place to stay for everything else!
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Great stuff Rhinestone I would appreciate it if you get back in touch when you return with an appraisal. I was going this year but in the middle of a big building project at the moment so had to give it a miss. I definitely will not miss next year, thank goodness it's at Santa Anita again.
Have a good time and back a few winners. |
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Hey Brig,
To be honest, I found it a complete nightmare to find accommodation, we got lucky in that my friend went last year and popped into the motel after the meeting last year and asked to be put on the list if a space became available... we got lucky and got a call. I would suggest trying to find something around this time already for next year..we based our choice on spending zero time in the place other than sleeping. Good luck Rhinestone, enjoy the meet and PILE ON VORDA |
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Classic looks like last years revisited, got to be against Game on Dude in these circumstances
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AOB is running the Juddmonte winner Declaration of War in the Classic so we may get a handle on the 10f bunch. The Fugue looks like being a bet but will have to wait until her race is decided. I think she will take on the boys.
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how do we get an angle on the 10f bunch brigust in regards DOW...this is a dirt race?? of which we don't know how he will handle kick back should be 20's for this race imo
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Well DOW has won at Dundalk and AOB has targeted this race with all his good horses so if he were to bolt up, I know it wouldn't be cast in stone, but we can reasonably think our top 10f could do the same. That's all.
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toronado non runner.
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cheers brig, sheikh.
i'll report back on here brig. Yes i always fancied Santa Anita, went to Churchill in 2010 it was baltic  gl everyone. |
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brigust if he were to bolt up?? very funny that
 he has won a couple of minor races on polytrackso your saying we could form conclusions about our 10f horses on the back of his running in the breeders cup classic dirt race?? it is ridiculous to even consider a scenario tbh or to even judge DOW on his running in the classic in a comparison with our 10f horses... its like running game on dude on turf against him over 10f when we all know game on dude is a dirt horse and saying DOW is a far better horse when he wins and then forming the opinion our horses are better than there's... in conclusion brigust it is a ridiculous thing to say |
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I disagree Harry. I know there is difference and it varies from horse to horse but is the difference as huge as all that? Wise Dan has won on both surfaces and Animal Kingdom has run very well on all three surfaces. So You Think either didn't handle the surfaces or was beaten by better horses. He finished a couple of lengths behind Game on Dude on dirt and he was rated 125. With DOW rated 120 I don't at all think it's inconceivable. I'm not saying the two surfaces are the same and I know some prefer one surface to the other but in general I think a horse will run on both surfaces with a preference to one of them. It just depends how big that preference is.
As you appear to know the difference between the two surfaces why don't you give me with your idea of what the difference may be in lengths? If, for example, DOW won by 10 lengths, I know it's highly unlikely, do you think it is inconceivable Al Kazeem, who he beat in the Juddmonte, could have won? That was my point |
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interesting point on wise dan and animal kingdom but it has to be remembered that both horses were trained for dirt and had had multiple runs on dirt before achieving what they achieved...so you think ran well for a long way but he is a great example of a turf horse running on dirt...dirt races are run fast then are just ground out in the stretch...they aren't quickening they are slowing because they are run at such a fast pace that is dirt racing...different to a turf race on fast ground when generally they are quickening at the 2 furlong pole
personally i don't like off track horses going onto the main track especially when it comes to dirt...and especially on there first run on it on breeding DOW should like dirt but he hasn't been trained on it so it is a complete shot in the dark that he will handle kick back because kick back is what he is going to face here i cannot give you an example of lengths as i cannot conclude which horse would handle the surface that is my point...on the al kazeem thing i haven't got a clue as the horse hasn't raced on dirt and isn't breed for dirt he would be a 100-1 shot if facing it for the first time in this race the difference brigust is immense imo some occasionally handle it sakhee for example ran his heart out but was exceptional colt probably a stone better than DOW so maybe his class helped him but in the end it proved his undoing as a race horse when he was demolished but the proper dirt horse street cry in the dubai world cup the surfaces are certainly not the same and cannot be used when comparing form imo and i certainly won't hold it against DOW if he runs badly and certainly won't be drawing comparisons on the form book on the back of his run |
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Blinding answer Harry. I know very little about dirt and always thought SYT was suspect in a hard finish as seen in the POW. I wonder how many people, like me, will assume that if DOW wins others could have done the same? On a positive note though he is a very late finisher in his races and if the go off hard as they sometimes do it may well play into his hands. The 10s might not be too bad a price. Problem is I think this group this year aren't great by any means. I wonder what the Yanks are like?
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i wouldn't take 10's with your money brig and i'm not jesting...if you are considering backing him back him on the american tote you will get at least 16's on the night imo...brutal i know brig but he isn't that good imo and he is facing kick back for the first time...i would want 20's at least and even then i would struggle to part with the cash
i will be hung drawn and quartered if he wins  the yanks aren't a great bunch themselves tbf but they are a decent enough bunch...proper grade 1 dirt horses but nothing exceptional so you could argue if he improved he might have a squeak but it still comes down to kick back for me so he won't carry my cash...the one thing in his favour is he is coming fresh but similar to game on dude and most racing for me i prefer a horse to prep... i am a big mucho macho man fan and like the way they are teaching him to switch off and he is finishing his races well...he loves santa anita...he got worried out of it last year against a very resistant fort larned who just wouldn't be denied in the stretch...fort larned himself hasn't impressed this year however and was just workmanlike in his prep i'd want a price on him to follow up... there is a lurker for me in this and that is paynter who mucho beat last time he had a very tough trip that day and raced on the slow part of the track before challenging 5 wide into the stretch...i think he has been trained for this and i expect him to run a huge race at a big price...he is trained by baffert who also trains game on dude but i think he is just peaking at the right time and i expect him to be ridden differently...i will be backing him more than mucho as think mucho is a tad under the price of what i want to back him at...so he will be my main play |
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Don't laugh Harry but Animal Kingdom beat MMM in the Kentucky Derby and DOW beat Animal Kingdom in the Queen Anne. Plus the World Cup AK won wasn't a great race and through Planteur and the Dunlop horse DOW has chances. I know it's clutching at straws and I certainly don't think this bunch is great but stranger things have happened.
I will certainly take your advice about the American prices and if he does win you certainly won't hear anything from me. I thinks it's great people having different opinions and even better if they can put a sensible reason forward for having that opinion. If we were right all of the time we wouldn't have time to be on here I guess. |
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i think animal kingdom had other things on his mind in the queen anne brig judging by the hard-on he had in the paddock!! debbie does dallas comes to mind
i have always thought that turf horses are fine on polytrack as it seems to ride like turf that is why ravens pass won (he wouldn't of done on dirt imo) but also the reason why american breeders and trainers soon had it switched back to dirt because the proper dirt bred horses aren't as good on poly track...its in the action of a dirt horse... a turf horse is far more fluent in his action ask yourself why the dubai world cup that always used to attract the best american dirt horses now does not |
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As I said Harry I think it's great when someone not only gives their selections but the reasons behind it. Makes absolute sense to me.
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As a 2yo DOW did win at Deauville, which is a fibresand track and of course the dam is a half sister to Union Rags who was very useful on dirt. He's a big powerful horse who should be at his best on dirt imo.
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You would have to say DOW isn't a top notcher but it depends what the US horses are like. If they are only an average bunch then if you can gt a price on the day it may be worth a small risk.
I wouldn't normally look at these races but it is the end of the flat for me and I tend to give the jumpers couple of months to get going. So just a bit of friendly punting doesn't go amiss. |
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This makes not a lot of sense to me so I doubt it will to you, but here goes...
(Other than Ravens Pass ... and because of the surface change I will leave him out) I actually think that D.O.W is the best hope that the U.K have sent over for a while... yet, when I put him in the list of the horses, he would be really low in my estimations! (against previous raiders) I just think that the way he travels in his races gives him an enormous chance, this race is going to be so fast and wild that *anything held up MUST be entered into your equations. We saw last year that only 2 horses were able to sustain the pace (Fort Larned and Mucho) G.O.D couldn't get near them and it is not shocking to expect the same only Baffert has had a year to ponder what happened and to instruct Mike Smith to GO, Go, Go from the off and i really cannot see anything other than an opening half of around 46' which would be of huge importance to a string travelling closer... D.O.W - I can see Joseph sitting in around 5th and getting a dream run, just far enough back off the strong pace but far enough in front of Ron the Greek et al to get first run. Would be far more confident if they put up a "home" jock... Wonder whether Go Go will be off the sauce for the meeting...he would fit this horse very well. Brigust, I'm with ya pal !! |
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Good point Harry with regards to Dubai...
Be very surprised if we ever saw a top notch U.S horse over there again after what has happened to Royal Delta and Game on Dude the last couple of years. |
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the UK
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Harry I don't know if you heard the Irish Handicapper on ATR today but he said DOW was with Tod Pletcher before going to France then to AOB and was initially being trained for the Kentucky Derby because of his pedigree then for some reason eventually ended up at Ballydoyle.
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i didn't see but heard...can't remember where, that he started in the states...
as i said earlier on the thread he is bred for dirt |
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I know, I just thought if you hadn't heard it would add to the decision making process. At the moment I'm leaning toward a bet on the day although he sounds like a definite runner. May split my stake and if the price is better than 10s ante post anywhere take that.
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don't take the 10 here pal you will get 14-16's on the american tote they won't want this horse over there as you know he isn't for me
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