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Cambridgeshire winner

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Replies: 154
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 26 Sep 13 16:43
Sint, chivalry did it in 2003
By:
Stephen_notloB
When: 26 Sep 13 18:59
I think Seek Again could be the group horse lurker, I'm hoping so as I have been all over it like a ten bob suit all week!
By:
betilyerded
When: 26 Sep 13 20:05
Jamie Osbourne should have won this a few years back with Docofthebay if Emlyn Hughes hadnt given it one of his "special" rides - the type that he always reserves for when I back one of his mounts - and I think he could do the trick with his Bunbury Cup winner Field Of Dream. Yeah hes exposed, yeah he hasnt got the 10f profile that all the stattos will have you believe you need and rated 103 carrying 9 stone whatever is going to make life a touch hard BUT if anything this horse has been crying out for a strongly run 9f all his career and i think its only because he always runs well over a straight 7 or 8 in the big races that this race has been overlooked in the past. He reminds me of Icriedforyou who was a similarly exposed type but who always ran on well over 7f.
His runs in the past 2 Royal Hunt Cups proves he stays at least a mile, his last run was a typical finish with a flourish effort and with Adam Kirkby back in the saddle I reckon he has a good ew shout at 33-1 first 5 places.
My other poke would be Strictly Silver at 25's, simply because ever since his run at York last year I had him marked down as a horse with a big race in him. His 2nd at Newmarket earlier this year worked out well, thought he won a touch cosily time before last and reckon he did really well at York last time when carrying 10 stone in soft ground (best form on good or better). Won over 9f on aw earlier this year and excuses for all his other defeats this season (ground, returning after a break and too far a trip). Won the same handicap off a higher mark that Tazeez won too and finally Robert Winston who had an 8-32 record on 4yo+ for the stable a few years back but only got 3 rides in the past 3 years, now suddenly riding again for the yard recently and had a first and second for owner of Strictly Silver last week. Its Winstons only booked ride of the day and I smell a plot!!
Good luck everybody
By:
judorick
When: 26 Sep 13 20:09
^ He is on my "take it on the chin if he proves you wrong" list

This is the list of potential lurkers that I predict are not capable of winning off their marks and this race it includes Seek Again, Queensbury Rules, Top Notch Tonto, Educate

I have now completed my short list of contenders and backed a couple but really waiting to see if there is any track bias and whether rain falls between now and the race
By:
judorick
When: 26 Sep 13 20:10
^ refers to Stephen's post
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 26 Sep 13 20:31
King George River for me. Given a break after his excellent 2nd in a listed race back in April. Didn't beat a horse in his next 2 races but not notably showed signs of returning to form last time and Just have a feeling he may have been laid out for this ever since that listed race.
By:
betilyerded
When: 26 Sep 13 20:40
So Alan Bailey wins it one way or another Laugh
By:
judorick
When: 26 Sep 13 20:40
another on my 'take it on the chin' list

or the 'I'm too chicken to back it' list more like Laugh
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 26 Sep 13 21:01
William Haggas a man to respect in big handicaps, which of his is best? Well I'm hoping Queensberry Rules, progressive and looked to be crying out for a step up in trip after Britannia 3rd. Then the icing on the cake the booking of Ryan Moore, as Haggas rates him as the man ;) so all in all should go very close. But I backed Stencive in the John Smiths :( so that says it all!

Also do like Educate, looks tailor made for this, goes on any ground, has form at 1m and 10f so the trip no problem. Likes a fast pace to run at and Murtagh sticks with him after a less than inspired ride at Haydock! The negative is can't understand if this race was the prime target why run at Goodwood and get put up 4lbs? not ideal for such a tight handicap.
By:
judorick
When: 26 Sep 13 21:10
I've backed Rex Imperator and Danchai for big handicap wins from the Haggas yard this year and the common factor between them was that they had demonstrated, to me at least, on the track that they had the potential to run at least 10lbs above their BHA marks - and did so. Danchai ran an RPR of 104 off 92 and Rex Imperator ran an RPR 116 off 104

None of the Haggas horses in this race have persuaded me that they have anywhere near the necessary amount in hand, apart from Graphic, and even that is a bit of supposition through the improvement Ascription made.

Haggas has not even had a horse placed in this race and that may be why he is firing so many bullets at it but I don't think he will be collecting
By:
mackies-fc
When: 26 Sep 13 21:13
Nine Realms for me, definitely more to come from him imo. Wouldn't be surprised if either of Alan Baileys won, KGR definitely aimed at the race. Backed Royal Prize in the silver tomorrow as well. Good luck.
By:
sintonian
When: 26 Sep 13 21:28
Only me and Uncle on Code Of Honor then. Laugh Lots of the fancied horses are draw 19+, reckon the winner has to come from that lot tbh.
By:
penzance
When: 26 Sep 13 21:43
like an AP bet,but done something I can't
remember doing before,backed 3 in a race.
Field Of Dream @80
Dance And Dance@36
Strictly Silver@36.
   GL ALL
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 26 Sep 13 21:43
Missile was 2nd in 1996 for Haggas beaten by the then Cambridgeshire King Jeremy Glover.
By:
penzance
When: 26 Sep 13 21:46
did Clifton Fox win that year?
By:
judorick
When: 26 Sep 13 22:09
I didn't go as far back as 1996 but the point is still valid
By:
spothediference
When: 26 Sep 13 22:25
Care to divulge ur shortlist yet judo?
By:
judorick
When: 26 Sep 13 22:33
not just yet mate, consolation race clues to track bias first, there's seven on the list so will cut it down tomorrow

going also important
By:
spothediference
When: 26 Sep 13 22:44
No hassle judo look forward to reading ur verdict as always.
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 26 Sep 13 22:47
Clifton Fox did indeed win, still painful. You only need to look at last years renewal to see Haggas ran Mukhadram to finish 5th. Shows what a difficult race it is to win.

I'm probably wrong but don't fancy Top Notch Tonto or Ascripition unless it rains heavily.
By:
judorick
When: 26 Sep 13 22:59
I agree, Tonto and Ascription not on my list

is a hard race to win, get the feeling one of them is going to go off at a million and tow a whole bunch along, bit like the Royal Hunt cup, and either one tracking the pace will stay on or one just behind the leaders will pick them up as they tire.

Just can't quite see who is gonna blast off the hardest but will be watching in play
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 26 Sep 13 23:11
Just hope none of my jockeys try to do what Hughes did in the Hunt Cup! Tried to be too clever went to the wrong side and never got a run. He did apologise but no good when you've done your hard earned!

If last years winner Bronze Angel had ran this season I think he'd be a big player but can't have first time out. I know its been done but in this case not the plan.

Queensberry Rules also wears a 1st time tongue tie? interested if it makes any difference?
By:
judorick
When: 26 Sep 13 23:29
I don't like em when they are keen and hard pullers, Moore might be the man to get the best but Queensbury more of an in running play imo rather than before the off

be glad when it's over been thinking about nothing else since Ayr
By:
slowerthanjohn
When: 26 Sep 13 23:45
Really like his Royal Ascot 3rd where he finished ahead of Wentworth and Cape Peron who went to be the 1-2 in the big mile handicap at Goodwood. Think the cavalry charge will help him settle and pretty sure he is the Haggas 1st string because of the Moore booking.
By:
John.W.Henry.
When: 27 Sep 13 07:43
King George River is the really interesting runner for me. Extremely progressive on the sand during the winter he carried that progression through to the turf and into the fielden stakes over course and distance, where he proceeded to give the subsequent French derby winner, Intello a minor scare as he surged through with him through the final 1/4mile only to give best to him 100yards from home but still able to give a 7length beating to the subsequent guineas runner up glory awaits.

Now there are reasons to suspect that KGR may have been slightly flattered by his proximity to Intello, however, there is no mistaking the comprehensive way he dispatched Glory awaits into 3rd.

Following the race we are allowed an insight into minor setbacks and targets for the horse and I have c and p them below :

Bailey was delighted with King George River in finishing second behind the Andre Fabre-trained Intello in the Listed Feilden Stakes and being seven lengths ahead of the third, Glory Awaits. 
"I was very pleased with his performance. He pulled a muscle during the race. He'll be OK shortly and is much better now, but he was lame when he came in," said Bailey.
"It was a good run. We are just playing it by ear at the moment, we'll just see how he is. You can't make them ready. You have to play it very carefully. It's very easy to go one step forward and three steps back if you go too quick.
"We gave him an entry in the Dante (at York), but whether he'll be ready for that you wouldn't know. He will get a mile and a quarter, no problem. There are lots of options for him

The former Aidan O'Brien inmate finished second behind French Derby winner Intello in the Feilden Stakes at Newmarket in April, with 2000 Guineas runner-up Glory Awaits behind in third.
Connections have so far resisted some big offers for the three-year-old, with Bailey considering a crack at the Hong Kong Derby next March, won this year by the former John Oxx-trained Akeed Mofeed.

"He picked up an injury when he ran at Newmarket," said the Newmarket handler.
"He's back cantering now but I'd say he's still six or seven weeks away from a run. It was a bad enough injury but he's a very good horse so I won't rush him.
"We've had lots of people on trying to buy him as his last race has worked out so well. It was a stifle injury. Ryan (Moore) though he was coming to win and then he felt it go.
"Next year we can think of some really nice races. I've no doubt in my mind he'll be at his best over 12 furlongs and we're thinking of the Hong Kong Derby


He was off for 3 months and returned to race against his elders in the group 2 sky bet stakes and finished well beaten but that only tells part of the story, granted it was a muddling affair but if you study him closely around the 4-3 pole he looks as if he may well win. He appeared to blow up and was eased off and spared an unnecessary hard race.

He next appeared at the goodwood festival meeting only 5 days later. This was a strange piece of race planning for sure and he never featured after being held up at the back, briefly being pulled out wider entering the straight before defeat was readily accepted.

This could be classed as a disappointing effort for sure but I Suspect there were mitigating circumstances which probably governed the run.

three weeks later he turns up at York and again is relatively easy to back but this time we get to see far more of what he might be capable of still.

Held up again in the rear he made a big move towards the inside part of the track to gradually get in contention but at the same time, the ridiculous well treated short squeeze was motoring down the outside making his winning move.

As your eyes were drawn to SS over on the far side KGR looked momentarily as if he was going to be swallowed up for 3rd as his effort looked to be petering out but not a bit of it, he surged again to secure the minor honour and appeared to finish full of running. Its well worth taking a look at that effort again as many would have focused on the very impressive winner.

This was undoubtedly a massive step forward. The subsequent efforts of those around him to slightly question the run but not that of the 5th home Hey Dude who managed a silver medal behind tonto in the haydock group 2 race.

So there we have it. the evidence in favour of KGR.

At a general 25-1 he is well worth an interest even on the intello run over c and d alone.

Sure he may not have the best of the draw being wide on the stand side wing but we have no way of knowing that is set in stone. The nearest potential pace appears to be in the 21 and 26 boxes of RTP & Area 51 but if I was Mr Bailey and I really wanted to have a far crack at winning this race, I would send the g-teed stayer STRICTLY SILVER to the front near side from the high draw to ensure at the very least he was able to keep KGR in the race.  At the same time, if there wasn't much pace on as looks likely on this side, he may pinch an easy lead and steal the race, if the bias did happen to be with him.

Good Luck to backers and layers alike. Happy
By:
judorick
When: 27 Sep 13 09:31
Well with the weather set to stay dry and the going set to be good to firm I think it's safe to get involved

http://maps.turftrax.co.uk/courseservices/NEWMARKET/maps/27-09-2013/811.jpg

My final short list was:

Tha'ir
Code of Honour
Danchai
Graphic
Chapter Seven
Red Avenger

I have taken 2 points ew 16/1 CODE OF HONOUR with 5 places and the tiny bet SlyBet let me have 6 places

and 1 point ew 40/1 THA'IR with BetVC 5 places

so far that is, I might well add some more and will be watching the weather closely as both those want fast
By:
unclepuncle
When: 27 Sep 13 09:47
I've added Strictly Silver @ 40 on here to my antepost bets on Jacks Revenge and Code Of Honor.

Will be gutted if Educate wins having gone in large on him at Haydock when he would have won easily but for traffic problems - but even with Murtagh onboard his higher mark and his poor form in 2 runs at New'Mkt put me off.
I've also looked time and again at Haggas's runners as he is to be repsected and Danchai was my biggest winner of the year in the John Smiths, but I just can't fancy any of them. In fact of his I'd probably stick with Danchai.

Good luck all.
By:
dunlaying
When: 27 Sep 13 15:56
Fury e/w for me. He was co favourite for the race last year off of 106 and has only had two races since. The handicapper seems to have been generous in dropping him to 98 as there was nothing wrong with his comeback run and he was not disgraced in the Hunt Cup .
By:
Millerracing67
When: 27 Sep 13 17:01
With the ground becoming faster by the min, some of these to the front of the betting could be taken out, as their best runs have come on softish ground.
Think Red Avenger is interesting at a price for a few ££ ew 2moro, he will love the fast ground & gets 10f which is a plus in this race as is the jock booking.
By:
sintonian
When: 27 Sep 13 17:08
Silver Camb first 5 home filled by middle-to-high, mostly, though it's just one race.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 27 Sep 13 17:15
Definitely think middle is the place to be which is worrying for my fancy drawn right on the rail.
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 27 Sep 13 17:18
Another boost for last years race as well which has worked out really well. Bronze Angel drawn in the middle, just the huge lay off is a concern.
By:
rogerthebutler
When: 27 Sep 13 17:33
Wouldn't be so quick to go with those drawn in the middle for the 'real thing' tomorrow.

There's a serious number of hold-up horses berthed in the middle third of the draw, with only (on my figures)GRAPHIC and ROBERT THE PAINTER (in stalls 20  and 21) likely to put the pace to the race in this section of the draw.
By:
Stevie Gerrard
When: 27 Sep 13 22:00
The draw wouldn't bother me too much as one of the best times of today was the Zurigha race and they raced on the far rail in that race. I know Penitent didn't show much when sticking to that rail in the next but I think the ground was against him and he had a hardish race recently on soft. Really I think it will just come down to where the pace is. You cant trust jocks anyway as remember a couple of years ago the whole field came stands side despite the far side looking favoured before the race.
By:
armpits
When: 27 Sep 13 22:03
Anyone know off hand what the going has been for the last few renewals?
By:
mac99
When: 27 Sep 13 22:51
I think Bronze Angel  has the best form in the race  by a few pounds , but if the firming  ground has gone against him  then  Danchai   comes into it  at least for a place  , he was able to handle the early pace when he won at York over ten furlongs  , just cant see him out of a place with  Buick up , also having a small bet on  Prince of Johan  a  very game horse  who is well suited by  firmer ground , looked as good as ever when he  won at Sandown   a couple of runs back and of course won the race   two or three years ago  gl
By:
mac99
When: 27 Sep 13 23:02
Prince of Johanne*
By:
rogerthebutler
When: 28 Sep 13 09:34
From my midweek shortlist, I've sided with FORGIVE for my biggest bet.

Ground is coming right for her and she runs well at Newmarket. Draw in 10 looks good as far as you can tell, but the braindead jockeys factor so eloquently expressed by Tom Segal in the Weekender, means any analysis of draw and pace can go out the window the moment the stalls open. Anyway, Richard Hughes isn't the worst to have on top in this situation and Field of Dream and Boonga Rongetta should give her a tow into the race.


She has been running on well over shorter trips and has a third on soft ground at Goodwood over 9 furlongs so today's distance isn't a worry. She has tactical speed, is well weighted, sufficiently mature without being exposed and is thought she is capable of black type and at 33/1 the price isn't shabby either.

Of the Haggas contingent I'm afraid it's QUEENSBERRY RULES for the reasons outlined by many previously. Ditto KING GEORGE RIVER if he's not drawn out of it on the stands side.

Finally, JACKS REVENGE, who is in good form over over 7 f last time out and a step back up in trip (never won below a mile) should suit. He goes well in big fields and man-of-the-moment Oisin Murphy's claim is like gold dust here. I've no doubt he can execute the waiting tactics needed.

Good luck to all players - a fascinating race and one of my favourites of the entire year. Anyone tipping the winner can dine out on it for the next 12 months!
By:
GoldCupWinner
When: 28 Sep 13 09:59
Forgive won't win. The form is ****! King George River for me! Would have Bronze Angel if trainer in better form.
By:
Facts
When: 28 Sep 13 10:21
Has to be GRAPHIC for me, now that the ground has gone against Ascription( assume it wont run)
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