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These 852 comments are related to the topic:
War Command
War Command
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Replies: 852
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Stevie, were you on that day? Well I'll aftertime instead 'cos I was
 . I'd been doing well for quite a while from modest beginnings then had a nightmare run, which I remember starting when I lumped on Oh So Risky in the Champion Hurdle. I backed GL ante post for the Irish before I realised it was going to turn into a bog. I was pretty much down to my last by the time of Royal Ascot. I had most of it on GL in the SJP and held a bit back for Kissing Cousin the following day. Luckily GL just about got up at the finish so I was able to have a decent bet on Kissing Cousin, I was back in business, for a while anyway |
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Actually GL was 7/1 early doors.
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some more Guineas trends....
12 years since Golan in 2001: 6 of the 12 Guineas winners had won at Group 1 level as a 2yo, 2 won a Grp 2 1 won a Group 3 whilst 2 of the remaining 3 (Haafhd and Cockney Rebel) placed in Grp 1/2 company from limited starts.... the odd man out being latestarting Tregoning castoff Makfi who won a maiden but landed a Grp 3 the following April before heading to Newmarket 4 of the 12 winners had a prep race which they also won. 9 of the 12 winners had suffered no more than 1 defeat prior to Newmarket including 6 who were unbeaten Of those trading at 25/1 or under, the ones who struggle against the above stats are Be Ready, Night Of Thunder, Indian Maharaja and Shifting Power |
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Hi Stevie, been out for a meal. It was the local hunt do.
You asked about the Sussex Stakes. Actually it wasn't great. Toronado met a horse who was already on the downgrade. DA had started as a 2 yr old in March, and ran in the Derby. He was finished. Toronado is OK but that is about all and how he and Olympic Glory are rated in the mid 130's is crazy. OG has one fairly good run to his name and so has Toronado. |
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I did back Oh So Risky in the champion, I thought that was one of the best handicap performances in the tote gold trophy giving 20lb to large action and 13lb to Flakey Dove. I was a weights and measures collateral form man back then and could not see that one getting beat.
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If converting to timeform scale I would rate Olympic Glory 128 so mid 130s does seem high to me Brigust. Toronado however I would have on 130 for the Sussex stakes.
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Any tears, Figgis, would be born of frustration at not being able to get through that attitude of yours. It's reminiscent of having to deal with my children when they were teenagers. They had the certainty of knowing it all and were not prepared to listen either to reason or experience. They took every bit of advice as a challenge. Now, many years later, they are in the same position and understand that their intentions towards their own children are misinterpreted.Its a pity that you are so blinkered, but there it is. You are and I see no likelihood of change so for that reason I shall block you and then at least I will not feel the need to reply. Good luck with your betting in any event.
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Brigust1
Just read the Japan Cup thread. I admire your patience and courtesy in dealing with figgis, but as you can see I have given up. |
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Sandown
05 Dec 13 10:14 Brigust1 Just read the Japan Cup thread. I admire your patience and courtesy in dealing with figgis, but as you can see I have given up. Meoooooooooooooooooooooow Though having just read that thread for the first time you may have a point.  |
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Unclepuncle
It's unfortunate that some people prefer to play the man rather than the ball.The forum should be about issues, debate,informations and views from which discourse we might all gain soome extra insight from others experience and knowledge. Instead, it becomes competitive especially when there is an unwillingness to tolerate alternative ideas. I am not at all put out that on this thread there are those who do not agree with me about WC but I am put out by discourtesy and juvenile attitude. |
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This is laughable, as I have never once told anybody to do it my way and that my way is the only way. I know there are many ways to beat the game, I just concentrate on what works for me. I think you'll find that it is you, Sandown, that constantly preaches 'don't rely on figures', 'prior figures DON'T work'. You've done it time and time again on many threads. As I've said before, I can't stand people who just because a certain way doesn't work for them they assume it doesn't work for anybody else.
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Also, it's a bit rich appearing to sympathise with Brigust after the way you've ridiculed his perfectly reasonable opinion that Australia might be O'Brien's Guineas horse. Comments such as getting more sense out of your cat, etc. I meant to say, another thing I can't stand is a hypocrite.
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Come on guys, lets get back to the horses. How can I return to this thread when Australia wins the 2000 Gns ffs?
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^^^
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Brig, when you return you'll probably find that some who opposed him decided to get him in their book after all
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I will be firmly falling on my sword, Figgis, when Australia shows up in the stalls at Newmarket, let alone winning it
........ unless the rest of the horse population contracts equine herpes |
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Figgis, back to an earlier question on the improvement of Guineas winners between 2 and 3?
Not the big improvers coming out of maidens, but those like Frankel and Dawn Approach who already had Group 1 winning form at 2. Forget lbs for a minute, how much in lengths if possible, do you think this pair improved from their best 2yo timefigure to win at Newmarket? |
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Wasn't referring to you, ped. I was just think back to a thread where somebody argued until they were blue in the face that Orfevre was a poor bet, only to get end up including him in their book, then still have the temerity to claim after the race they were right about Orfevre and that others should've taken note.
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Bit gibberish that post but think you can gather what I meant
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Don't fall on your sword Ped. There are few enough decent posters about as it is.
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Ped, for Frankel I'd say approximately 2 lengths on his Dewhurst run, but I'd say about 1 length on his Doncaster run. Dawn Approach is more ambiguous, as most people seemed to rate it poorly but I judged that the ground had slowed for the latter races. I had it less than a length better than his 2yo best. I know that it doesn't fit with wfa and I'm certainly not telling anybody to do the same, it's just that since I came to this conclusion my ratings had a better prediction rate and my results improved greatly.
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Ped, also we both know that it's just not about bare ratings, it's how the rating was achieved. Going back to Xaar, I think that Timeform rated him the best Dewhurst winner on 132, better than Zafonic and Frankel. If you watch the video, even though he thrashed the field at the end he wasn't exactly travelling like a 132 horse given the opposition, he looked an unlikely winner at one stage. I thought it wasn't in the class of Zafonic or Frankel's win and that even though he was a decent horse he'd been overrated, just my opinion though.
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don't worry, Brig, I'll fall on my sword when Oz wins and come back here for good measure so you can throw some more mud at me
Interesting stuff, Figgis, that surprises me you would think the improvement is so small. Can understand that with the likes of Three Valleys and possibly Arazi who were basically pure 2yos who didn't have the size (from my recollection) to grow much at 3. Frankel and Dawn Approach were much bigger types and would be surprised if they hadn't put on fair amount of weight in 6-7 months from Dewhurst to Guineas to enable them to run several lengths quicker? |
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Ped, I'm not saying Frankel couldn't have bettered that, I mean it's arguable that the way he ran that Guineas wasn't conducive to him running to his absolute best, but I don't want to get into that kind of speculation. I had him improving another 9lbs in real terms as a 4yo.
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Sorry, should've said improving 11lbs not 9.
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You had Frankel improving 11lbs Figgis? Oh dear. Where was that decided?
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Brigust, I'm not talking wfa, if you subscribe to the wfa scale, and I think you do, then an improvement of 11lbs from 3 to 4 would be nothing unusual.
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It may or may not be unusual Fig but surely it must be backed up by something? The Official handicapper and Timeform had him raised 4lb and I think that's a little bit rich.
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Brig, they would've raised him 4lbs (if that's what it was) plus wfa, I raised him 11lbs in total.
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Ok, just asking. Misunderstood for a moment.
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this thread has got very ambiguous indeed...read it back if you don't agree
with a lot of back tracking and comments to suit certain peoples styles and there methods... it disappoints me a tad as I like everyone's point of view as it keeps it honest and friendly...be open minded i say it is sad, that it seems to come down to, if you do speed figures you must know more or should be respected more than other private handicappers and we can talk, as long as we are of that ilk... this does make me laugh a tad especially when it seems, you all have very different opinions on each horses ratings...when i say this i mean who is right and who is wide of the mark?? anyway all input welcome here and respect given to all posters, as debate is good...anyway am happy to let things go, but somethings do seem to get brushed under the carpet...need some honesty police imo i put a couple of posts up and we just moved on...probably because i'm a boring c*** but no debate because it didn't suit others and there opinions...keep me honest if you don't agree but don't move straight on because it doesn't suit you anyway disappoints me a tad and no comeback made me feel like my view is not in line with others, so whats the point... sandown don't feel like you shouldn't post, even though putting up horses like berkshire as sprinters, needs close attention, especially when they are bred to get 1m2f at least, was a tad worrying in anyone's book...blame the dosage man i suppose!! I know feck all about dosages by the way I do know that red rum started over 5 furlongs at aintree though |
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Harry C
Pedigree interpretation is just about as much guesswork as interpreting the form book. The dosage theory has its successes and failures and can be a guide but horses can and will outrun their pedigrees both in terms of trip and class. Even if a horse has won over a trip of say a mile, and its pedigree says its a probable sprinter say, there are examples of where that horse is later found back at sprint trips doing rather better.Or vic e versa, as your Red Rum quote shows. I think if you look at pedigrees, combine it with running styles and get a view of the make and shape of the horse, then it might all point in one direction. As for Berkshire, as you say, I just reported it as the figures suggest. |
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the red rum quote was a pizz take
 i do enjoy pedigrees myself... but how in this instance does someone come up with the dosage of the said horse?? in regards to like you say the figure suggested on berkshire when surely he would come up with a dosage that would be high, especially on pedigree anyway?? kinnaird (stayed 1m 2f) the said horses mother is by doctor devious and as much as we don't know much about the sire yet he stayed pretty well himself...at least 1m2f at the top level |
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Harry, I don't know why you feel that because people are discussing speed figures then it's because they think it's superior to anybody's private handicap ratings, or indeed people who judge horses without even compiling ratings. If I were to rate a horse a high figure it's just the same as somebody having a high opinion of a horse, it's just that I'm attempting to quantify it and stick a number on it because it suits me to work like that. Despite what some people may imply compiling speed figures is just as much about taking a view as it is using the tools to produce the figures. And even though some figure compilers say they frown on collateral form lines there still has to be an element of collateral comparison when compiling time figures.
That's one of the reasons I don't particularly like McNae. He keeps saying things like 'these are the facts' and trashing 'subjective opinion' analysis, when even the facts can be open to subjective opinions and I'm sure that a lot of people get by very well on their own subjective opinions. |
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Harry, which of your points was ignored?
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Harry C
Red Rum was bred to be a sprinter on the flat so no pizz take read up dosage theory on this site www.chef-de-race.com |
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Harry, don't want to accuse you of not reading the thread, but was pointed out earlier the dosage index for Berkshire is incomplete / incorrect due to sire probably not included as chef de race
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figgis,I have no wish to dwell on this, as enjoy reading about different views and speed figures...nothing to do with superiority, but when someones views are just dismissed by just moving straight on, i find that dismissive of that persons said opinion...you can make what you will
it has nothing to do with not having the respect for those doing speed figures...i respect it, as have been in the game to long, to not...but as i have said now with all the biases and over watering at the tracks i find them slightly misleading, just an opinion...but have learnt more this year listening to peoples opinions that isn't to say they are always right i certainly do not treat them dismissively, as you know, as have asked yourself and pedro in the past for some help in regards a certain runner i cannot grasp with my own methods, as like i say, i respect your judgment mcnae i just have the sound down now...his opinion on a james given runner bred by hawk wing this year at redcar cracked me up..."look at him" "look at him" he said as if the horse was playing up, like all hawk wings do, a myth by all the ruk team imo...the reason why i was mythed was because i'd backed it at the 10's pre race and saw nothing of the sort... |
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I saw nothing of the sort...
the horse gagged up WAC he is |
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ok thanks
will have a read up missed that in thread pedro |