Betfair International Handicap (7f Heritage Handicap)

I wouldn't rule out Hawkeyethenoo even under topweight.

Thought Lightening Cloud was quite impressive last time out, could see him going close again.

With the 5 lbs claim of Robert Tart, then Loving Spirit has to go close off his mark and if granted an ok draw and a fair route in running it will take a well handicapped horse to beat him in my opinion

i been backing LS all season too anyone know max field as i also fancy 1 in the forties

I remember you mentioned him Unclepuncle for Royal Ascot. I had a good ew bet on him for the 7 furlong handicap at Ascot last October, I follow the AW a lot and knew he was well in and was gutted to see him just fall short, I was on at 40/1 etc. My concern for this saturday was also the ground, as there was cut in it last October when he almost won what off what is effectively the same mark he will race off on saturday. His dad Azamour loved fast ground so i would have thought he would be well at home but I agree Loving Spirit's record would suggest otherwise. Not sure whether to pile in or have a token bet on with the hope he doesn't win and get on properly for the 7 furlong race in October again! I just think the 5 lbs Tart will take off could be the difference this saturday as he only got beat by around 2 1/2 lengths at Royal Ascot, are you going to pile in Uncle / Cracking House?

Swagger
24 Jul 13 22:14

I remember you mentioned him Unclepuncle for Royal Ascot.

I tipped Loving Spirit big time for the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot but he was balloted out. I only had a small bet on him in the Buckingham Palace as I felt 7f would be too sharp.
I'll throw a few quid at him again this weekend but don't really expect him to win.

29 Runners . Will go with Field Of Dreams to follow up last year's victory if stall 2 doesn't prove to be a problem.

Sadly for me the two I have been interested in for the race are now (on here) 1st&2nd fav Liked the look of both Ashaadd & Queensberry Rules, both open to more improvement, tho its a tough race for 3yos. Of the bigger prices I would give Hawkeyethenoo a chance back in hcap class even of top weight, he loves Ascot (C&D winner here). Its not a race for me to play for much ££, but they would be my 3 against the field. Gd luck all.

Yeah, the forecast could scupper all plans and given this is an ante-post forum, that's about as much use as a fish with t1ts, however on the assumption it is no firmer than the current 'Good' (and in the hope of some rain to ease things further) SHAMAAL NIBRAS at 25/1 looks of interest.

He was all at sea at 6f on fast ground and up in grade last time and I'm ignoring that run. Prior to that his third over C&D in the Buckingham Palace Handicap at Royal Ascot reads well (although the race is not working out at all well from a form perspective). He goes well for the 3lb claimer and is a good each-way poke at the present 25/1 (but get those rain drums out).

Other than that REDVERS has rock-solid credentials and Richard Hughes is a very interesting booking.

My two against the field.

ES QUE LOVE is really well in off 99 and Peslier reunited, 20/1 huge price.

Dismiss all the 6yo+ horses, they have not managed a win in this for as long as I remember

Bertiewhittle was on my list but stall 13 is no good so I dismissed him

the two 3 year olds at the head of the market look the biggest threats and are drawn stand side.

I sent this to my mailing list:

This valuable, large field handicap is another perfect puzzle to be tackled using the snip methods as many will fail because they are just handicapped 'not to win' and can be easily dismissed which is helpful in the search for both potential winners and value prices. In addition, there are some extremely useful and pretty reliable trends that we can apply.

Trends

As with many of these handicaps, the older horses have a dreadful record in this race and everything aged 6 years old or older is dismissed. Rest assured, I have handicapped all the runners and none of the older horses made it onto the short list which is normal. They have climbed to their peak rating and are either exposed or are regressive and on long losing runs. Pretty sure the winner will be younger than six years old.

Another key trend is to have run in either the Buckingham Palace Hcp or Royal Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot OR The Bunbury Cup. Experience in large fields is almost essential as all winners in recent times had placed in a race with 15 or more runners and getting a placing in a high enough grade is also important and if you have yet to place in a Class 2 race previously you're probably not winning this.

Other factors I looked at were: a win at 7 furlongs+ , a win in a race with at least 12 runners, a recent run (inside 40 days) and a win in a race worth at least £9k. Turns out the draw has been unimportant although we might spot a bias on the day.

Handicap Short List

These are the horses that remain on the short list following the application of the Snip method, remembering the rest have been dismissed as the judgement suggests they are gonna struggle off their marks. Given the record this season I think it's fair to say there is a reasonable chance the winner is on the list. Hope you agree! In any case, this is the whole basis of the method.

Lightning Cloud
Bertiewhittle
Redvers
Dream Tune
Es Que Love

Interestingly all of these ran in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot which is one of the key races for this. Based on my analysis Es Que Love comes out best of these short listed horses by a few pounds.

Comments on the Short Listed runners

Lightning Cloud: won the Buckingham Palace very nicely and has been put up to a career high 100 (7lb higher) and it is going to take another lifetime best for him to win and I could not bet this one.

Bertiewhittle: raced on the disadvantaged far side in the Ascot race and showed improved form next time out to confirm the merit of the form. He is 13lb higher than his last win in a handicap and may just be handicapped out of it off 97. I would consider a capable claiming jockey if I were the trainer. Saying that he did come out second best on the Snip method. However, no win for two years is a major negative.

Redvers: is interesting because he ran very well on the far side at Ascot and has not been raised so finds himself better off at the weights with the others than on that day. He really likes very fast going so it will be interesting to see what the going is like.  Interesting contender, 3rd on the Snip method.

Es Que Love: was ridden by Graham Lee twice at Royal Ascot where he raced keenly and was held up. Since then he has run 3 times in red hot races and has either front run or been prominent every time. Olivier Peslier returns to the saddle and he nearly made all at Sandown on him. Es Que Love has run well off 105 since Ascot and yet can race off just 99 here which makes him a genuine SNIP under the principles of this method. He was just unable to win the Bunbury Cup (the other key race) off 101, as I predicted if you remember, and with 2lb less he can prove very hard to pass.

Betting Approach

In the John Smiths Cup we bet three of the qualifiers win only and ended up with the first two home which was a successful approach for that race. We could apply a similar method here and dutch, say, Es Que Love, Bertiewhittle and Redvers in the win market and hope we collect. That could well prove successful.

However, on this occasion with Es QueLove so far clear on the Snip method, and with the recent change in tactics compared to Royal Ascot, I think it is better to back him each way with a strong expectation that he will at least place and make us money (20/1 ew ¼ odds). I am more than hopeful that Peslier will bounce out and let the horse run and that he will prove extremely difficult to get past. We might even get 5 places in the day of the race market on the day and that will be massive value, I will definitely go back in heavy again if that is available.

Notes

The current fast going is ideal so I am hopeful we get no rain on the track. The weather forecast is for no rain so fingers crossed they are correct.

Betting Advice

Back  ES QUE LOVE  5 points ew 20/1


Update (Following the final decs, draw and latest going)

Es Que Love has been drawn 19 of the 29 which is not ideal (26-29 would have been perfect) but I am hopeful Peslier will get out and cross to the stands side. Looking at the draw, he appears to be the only front runner on his side so that might mean he can get the lead without too much hassle.

The market is interesting as the two leaders are both 3 year olds, drawn in 22 and 23, both hold up horses. Three year olds do not have a great record and Ashaadd did not run at Royal Ascot or the July meeting which would make him a very unusual winner if he did so.

Field of Dream, Lightning Cloud, Redvers and Shamaal Nibras (all ran in the Buckingham Palace Stakes) are all drawn in single figures on the far side. Winners have come from those stalls in the past so it will be interesting to see if there is any track bias – hopefully against the far side! That would make the job much easier haha! Dream Tune did not make the final decs which is useful because he was becoming more of a threat in my mind as I reflected on the race the last day or so.

I will be putting in a bunch of in running lays at various prices from 2 to 1.01, concentrating on 1.5 to 1.1 get the stakes back and sub 1.1 to win some. I'm happy to lose up to 10 points of profit in the win market if I can lay 20 to 50 points at very short prices.

Well, hoping for the best now, trusting my judgement and fingers crossed!

yes, sometimes the far side dominates on the soft, will have to see

yes far side is the low numbers, will have to see times from first race to know the going

got any links for the weather Swagger mate?

tvm mate

Good work Judorick.

My big negative about Es Que Love is that in the 45 races over 7f at Ascot, with 18 or more runners in my database, not one was won by anything making all or leading early. I always generate my own pace profile for a race and have ES QUE LOVE (19), DON'T CALL ME (17), THE CONFESSOR (14), TRAIL BLAZE (10), and GLEN MOSS (24) all likely to put the pace to the race and therefore unlikely to be a play for me.

He's in good form and so is Mark Johnstone so don't let me put you off.

judorick, you can't back Es Que Love at 20-1, 5 places, cos he's not and prob will never be. So what's your bet now.

Sorry, yes, I think I was reading the 5 points as places. Think I need more sleep.

according to the website metcheck the heavy rain won't arrive til the late evening, only a couple of mm expected in the afternoon

http://www.metcheck.com/UK/today.asp?zipcode=Ascot#.UfILr41wr_N

hope they are right

Good thread, of the ones who've had a mention I like the chances of Redvers and Lightning Cloud.

Of the ones who have n't, Compton looks potentially well handicapped on his form at the track last Autumn, he would probably welcome any rain that comes.

Will wait and see what the weather does now but leaning towards Compton at the prices.

P of J only got up in the last 50 yards over a mile against Es Que Love and is now 3lb worse off over a furlong shorter

csannot see him catching him this time