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Facts
11 Jul 13 09:32
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 May 03
| Topic/replies: 28,759 | Blogger: Facts's blog
For those who saw a winning opportunity squandered on Opinion in the Old Newton Cup - have a chance to recoup losses in the Betfred Ebor.

Sponsor has put up 12/1
Pause Switch to Standard View EBOR - York 24th August
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Report judorick August 6, 2013 1:17 PM BST
yup ante post market suspended, waiting on the entries (not declarations) to be posted at todays forfeit stage

be able to get stuck in after
Report bazzar August 6, 2013 4:28 PM BST
Did anyone else read that TOMINATOR had picked up an injury and would not race again THIS YEAR or did I imagine it?
Report morpteh mackem August 6, 2013 5:36 PM BST
opinion tipped up in rfo.
Report BJG August 6, 2013 6:27 PM BST
bazzar     06 Aug 13 16:28 
Did anyone else read that TOMINATOR had picked up an injury and would not race again THIS YEAR or did I imagine it?


Jonjo O'Neill's dual Northumberland Plate winner Tominator will miss the Betfred Ebor and faces a lengthy spell on the sidelines.

The popular grey got up in the final strides a Newcastle a few weeks ago to provide O'Neill and former jump jockey Graham Lee with a major success on the level. However, he will now miss the rest of the Flat season and will not be going jumping in the winter either.

"He's out for the season unfortunately," said O'Neill.

"It's a ligament injury he picked up at Newcastle.

"We'll leave him off for as long as he needs now, he's only six, so we'll give him all the help he needs.

"He won't be going jumping, that's for sure."

Tominator was around a 20-1 chance for the Ebor at York next month.
Report judorick August 6, 2013 6:35 PM BST
so RFO tips the ante post fav who:
1. runs off a mark higher than any horse horse has won off for donkey's
2. to carry a weight 5lbs higher than any has won carrying for at least
3. comes from a stable yet to win the race

seriously, professional journalists tipping this?
Report bazzar August 6, 2013 7:36 PM BST
Thanks BJG, can't understand why he is still in the race and there has been an acceptance stage today for the EBOR.
Report Facts August 6, 2013 7:41 PM BST
judorick     06 Aug 13 18:35 
so RFO tips the ante post fav who:
1. runs off a mark higher than any horse horse has won off for donkey's
2. to carry a weight 5lbs higher than any has won carrying for at least
3. comes from a stable yet to win the race

seriously, professional journalists tipping this?




Stoute has won this race three times.
This 'pro'has backed it !
Report Stevie Gerrard August 6, 2013 9:05 PM BST
Some professional journos and punters don't use stats and trends judo and there are plenty of other reasons for fancying the horse. I've yet to back it myself though as I prefer to wait til nearer the day.
Report sj August 7, 2013 8:37 AM BST
not got involved yet,but would have to look at Opinion(bit put off by price and would hang on till day)Not a 'stats' man myself but respect others who use them,but surely he is capable of winning off a mark of 103(looked slightly unlucky off that mark at haydock)Pondering wether to give  Caravan Rolls On another chance,if the going remains on top.

good luck what ever you do
Report BJG August 7, 2013 11:08 AM BST
Positive there s a big one in Caravan Rolls on but startin to become a little frustrating and his mark has gone up 6lbs without winning!
Report sj August 7, 2013 1:02 PM BST
spot on BJG
Report BJG August 7, 2013 5:03 PM BST
That said its quite possible a higher mark than normal will b required to even get in here? Has the makings of a decent looking race thus far
Report bazzar August 7, 2013 7:34 PM BST
My memory includes SEA PIGEON who won with a high weight and a mare trained by VINCENT O'BRIEN carried top weight and won by 12 lengths.
Report morpteh mackem August 8, 2013 8:25 AM BST
no-one give stencive a chance ?
Report zilzal1 August 8, 2013 11:19 AM BST
Dont think there will EVER be a easier winner of the race than "The Captain's" Sir Montagu
Report bazzar August 8, 2013 5:39 PM BST
Think GLADRAGS was a VERY easy winner.
Report DickTurpin August 8, 2013 8:13 PM BST
SONGCRAFT seems rather large.......
Report bazzar August 9, 2013 10:25 AM BST
Slight blip in the memory box the mare was GLADNESS who won the EBOR with top weight by 12 lengths, trained by VINCENT O'BRIEN.
Report cryoftruth August 13, 2013 8:08 AM BST
Mr M Mackem

Stencive (given decent luck in running) is home and hosed imo. Two major provisos though - he needs to run, and he needs to stay well enough. No doubt at all that he is exceptionally well handicapped. There is a chance he could win the Ebor by quite a decent margin as he outclasses this field.
Report morpteh mackem August 13, 2013 5:25 PM BST
Grin
Report unclepuncle August 14, 2013 3:57 PM BST
Weather forecast set fair and fairly hot for next week so definitely going to be on the quick side.
Report spothediference August 14, 2013 5:07 PM BST
stenscive caught my eye too in this-haggas was gutted in the interview after his last race even tho they won it with his stable companion you could see they thought this was the1. whats your view on him judo??how does he fit into or not fit in your stats trends etc?
Report lead on August 14, 2013 5:53 PM BST
like yourself,spothediference,i'm looking for judorick's next post on this.His record this past summer has been spot on in these races.I've already backed Opinion in this and I know judo's not so keen on him here.Quite like to know his thoughts for backup.
Report BJG August 15, 2013 1:32 PM BST
Stencive is out and misses the rest of the season
Report Millerracing67 August 15, 2013 5:07 PM BST
Shame Plain classy handicapper/ group horse. Would not have been sure about the trip for him tho.
Report morpteh mackem August 15, 2013 5:38 PM BST
Sad
Report ReaseHeath August 15, 2013 5:55 PM BST
not looked at race properly yet, but can't get Harris Tweed's last run out of my head, this will be immeasurably tougher but...
Report lead on August 18, 2013 11:59 AM BST
What time is next declaration stage?
Report PeteTheBloke August 18, 2013 2:38 PM BST
Market Suspensions:
12pm, 19th August - Confirmation Of Entry Stage
Report PeteTheBloke August 18, 2013 2:39 PM BST
Sorry. Missed the bit after that...

This market will close at 10am on the 22nd August. A day of the race market will be available shortly after.
Report Millerracing67 August 18, 2013 5:09 PM BST
Sadly not going to make the trip down to York this year Sad Too many things on at home atm & cancelled my booking on Fri Sad
The weather looks gd for the wk (dry & sunny) Enjoy the 4days lads if your going.
Took a small interest on here about Handsome Man last wk in the hope of fast ground (he wants it quick imo) small interest at 50s, Opinion would be my other 1 on a very short list, wont play on him till sat morn tho, would expect him to be the same price he is atm if not bigger.
Report willie the milk August 18, 2013 6:14 PM BST
What's the maximum runners? Looking at Sir Mark's Pallasator but it's number 40 so will need a few to come out, but just how many?
Report lead on August 18, 2013 6:30 PM BST
think it's 20.not sure though
Report willie the milk August 18, 2013 7:22 PM BST
Sorry, I was looking at them alphabetically. DOH
Report Millerracing67 August 19, 2013 11:31 AM BST
20 runners for the Ebor. Not sure he will line-up on fast going willie?
Report unclepuncle August 19, 2013 11:39 AM BST
I really fancied Genzy at a big price (33/1+) after his run behind Bishop Roko and was gutted they chose to run him on Saturday at Newbury - ran pretty well too and would have been a player in the Ebor.
Report bazzar August 19, 2013 1:38 PM BST
Any news as regards Saturday acceptors?
Report PeteTheBloke August 19, 2013 4:30 PM BST
53 still in and only 20 can go. Is that correct? 20 doesn't sound a lot.
Report PeteTheBloke August 19, 2013 4:31 PM BST
But I don't doubt youse. Were there many balloted horses last year?
Report Millerracing67 August 19, 2013 6:05 PM BST
20 is max Pete. Only 19 ran last year.
Report stevo1 August 21, 2013 8:52 AM BST
Bishop Roko for me could be big improver hopefully,slight worry entered Friday this was supposed to be target maybe why still such a big price?
Report judorick August 21, 2013 11:18 AM BST
Just waiting on the draw but my short list for this is now down to:

NO HERETIC
CARAVAN ROLLS ON

Have taken 20s and 14s
Report Stevie Gerrard August 21, 2013 11:21 AM BST
I think it's likely to be just the one bet for me and that's No Heretic
Report -Artifice- August 21, 2013 9:25 PM BST
I know he can be a lazy bugger but this looks just the type of race in which Tropical Beat can outrun his odds of 25/1. The likely strong gallop should help him settle - a nice pipeopener at Muss of late ( form boosted today ) - course form when a good 3rd last year - ground no issue - hopefully Tudhope will deliver him on cue!!
Report judorick August 22, 2013 12:26 PM BST
anyone get the draw?
Report Stevie Gerrard August 22, 2013 12:54 PM BST
the draw is up on the cards on sporting life site
Report HaylingBilly August 22, 2013 1:17 PM BST
judo

NO HERETIC drawn 15
CARAVAN ROLLS ON drawn 12
Report judorick August 22, 2013 1:18 PM BST
ta

maximum ew bet NO HERETIC
Report HaylingBilly August 22, 2013 1:20 PM BST
I've gone max EW Caravan Rolls On so hopefully one of us will get it right. Good luck.
Report judorick August 22, 2013 1:26 PM BST
I've had a saver last week on the Caravan, 2 points at 14s when I posted the short list

GL mate
Report sintonian August 22, 2013 1:32 PM BST
backed Steps To Freedom at 25/1. 6lb lower than 3.5 length defeat last year.
Report HaylingBilly August 22, 2013 1:48 PM BST
sint - makes sense. I have backed that horse over fences, over hurdles and over a cliff. The time has come to stop my obsession.............watch it sluice up ! Good luck.
Report SOULDANCER August 22, 2013 2:08 PM BST
8st 8lbs or under is the only stat I look for in this race, been a real money-spinner. Just the 2 this year.
Hanoverian Baron, already done this one on here ante-post, though I'm worried this maybe too far. He was unlucky last time, didn't get a run when going well.
No Heretic, Darren Egan's claim makes him the other one and looks the more likely winner.
Report saddo August 22, 2013 4:45 PM BST
Hanoverian down to run tomorrow 1.55, bit puzzling.
Report SOULDANCER August 22, 2013 5:20 PM BST
Bit worrying
Report Irish_Celtic August 22, 2013 6:04 PM BST
Highland Castle will do for me. Fits all the trends available at 38.
Report saddo August 22, 2013 6:57 PM BST
I only got 9 quid on at 157, souldancer, but thought it would run Friday and sold it at 70 last night. If they pull it out tomorrow I'll be wishing I'd kept it.
Report unclepuncle August 22, 2013 7:20 PM BST
Would have been having a good bet on Genzy if he hadn't run last week - can't understand why they did it.Cry Rain is forecast as well which will suit him.

Would also have fancied Ted Veale but for some reason he had a run yesterday which surely can't be ideal.Confused
Report Tatie Baron August 22, 2013 7:44 PM BST
Ted Veale's connections probably thought he needed a penalty to get in. As it turns out he didn't and it's a positive for me that they were so desperate to get in.
Report ReaseHeath August 22, 2013 9:37 PM BST
presumably they declared Hanoverian Baron for tomorrow in case he did n't get in the Ebor?

I expect he'll be a non runner in the morning.
Report judorick August 22, 2013 10:08 PM BST
they might as well run on friday coz he's got norfolk and chance in this
Report Steamship August 22, 2013 10:22 PM BST
Can I ask for opinions on these three please

Bishop Roko
Genzy
Tropical Beat
Report ReaseHeath August 22, 2013 10:40 PM BST
high probability of rain coming in tomorrow night and Saturday morning according to metcheck.

...just saying

not had a bet in this yet so it makes sense to wait now.
Report Stevie Gerrard August 22, 2013 10:42 PM BST
The one thing I didn't want of No Heretic was rain, hopefully won't be too much though, I see turnip says its just started raining after they watered this evening
Report ReaseHeath August 22, 2013 10:45 PM BST
yep, just saw that myself - will take it as a cue to stop studying tomorrow's card and wait until the morning.
Report mac99 August 23, 2013 7:29 AM BST
Guarantee  is  in the picture if it rains enough ,  he was a very  good winner of the Melrose  last year , he has not performed so well  so far this  year  but i guess this is the race they want to win with him
Report Stevie Gerrard August 23, 2013 8:29 AM BST
Yes he has a chance mac, he didn't want to know earlier in the season but they gelded him and his 2 runs since have been a bit better and the rain and cheek pieces will help. Obviously Opinion will like the ground but the price is already short enough on that one
Report Stevie Gerrard August 23, 2013 8:30 AM BST
I meant to say the cheek pieces might help
Report Stevie Gerrard August 23, 2013 8:45 AM BST
Of course No Heretic might be ok on the ground, he did flop in his one soft ground run but he did take a keen hold that day and was also reported to have banged himself.
Report Stevie Gerrard August 23, 2013 8:48 AM BST
But I do think he is a fast ground horse really. Still that's the chance you take ante post
Report SOULDANCER August 23, 2013 8:50 AM BST
Hanoverian Baron non-runner today. Well he's gotta better chance than my usual ante-post,they usually don't make the race. Think the rain will help.
Report saddo August 23, 2013 9:00 AM BST
I've ended up with 1100/5, souldancer, would rather he'd run today at 16/1 though. Also like Genzy, but as unclepuncle mentioned  the run last week will be hard to overcome. GL all.
Report sj August 23, 2013 9:15 AM BST
very boring here think Opinion is neigh on bet to nothing e/w,while i will be having a pop at Saptapadi at big prices (e/w)
Report sj August 23, 2013 9:31 AM BST
steps of freedom out
Report SOULDANCER August 23, 2013 9:38 AM BST
saddo, that beats me, I left it till I seen the claimer for the weight,69.0 my average.
Report saddo August 23, 2013 10:02 AM BST
Murphy a major negative imo, had Beasley booked for today.
Report SOULDANCER August 23, 2013 10:34 AM BST
Purely on form Tiger Cliff is going to be hard to beat. Typical Cecil improver, have to bet this one too. Bit of a disaster, don't like betting 3 usually means I'm wrong.
Report boy wonder 07 August 23, 2013 11:04 AM BST
bishop roko and genzy for me
Report Millerracing67 August 23, 2013 3:05 PM BST
With more rain forecast later 2day Sad its time for a re-think (if it does) My main hope wont mind some cut in the ground (Opinion) but my small interest on Handsome Man (wants fast ground) looks done for. Hopefully no more rain hits the track & a few ££ on Opinion will do for me 2moro.
Report Tatie Baron August 23, 2013 4:38 PM BST
I wouldn't give up on Handsome Man, he does have some softer ground form including a Royal Ascot 2nd last year. He's a big price so there's bound to be some doubts. Not convinced his Northumberland Plate blowout was just a ground thing, nobody seemed bothered about the ground when they made him joint favourite. Too big a price to let him run loose now.
Report GoldCupWinner August 23, 2013 7:09 PM BST
The ground was not soft today at all! Just hoping the rain stays away but we'll see.
Report stevo1 August 23, 2013 9:54 PM BST
Happy with my bet on Bishop Roko now rain has come and more to come very likely, but not for my saver Handsome Man but price 50s on here needs it quick?
Report Millerracing67 August 23, 2013 10:25 PM BST
A back to form Guarantee would be of interest at around 20s. Very impressive winner here last year in the Melrose. Winning form at York on easy ground is a plus & has showed signs of a return to form lately. Worth a bit of ew interest at the prices.
Report Pinza August 23, 2013 11:47 PM BST
No Melrose winner gone on to win Ebor (last 30 yrs) but agree he has a chance on run behind stable mate Sun Central.
Report Pinza August 24, 2013 12:01 AM BST
Opinion.
Very few (6 in 30 yrs) Ebor winners won a B hcp or higher in current year and the only 4yo to overcome the stat was Purple Moon who won a listed hcp
Report BJG August 24, 2013 12:16 AM BST
Beltin it down
Report Figgis August 24, 2013 12:19 AM BST
Tropical Beat for me.
Report vol n. oven August 24, 2013 3:00 AM BST
saptapadi at 45/1 looks overpriced,think i will vote tory after it weighs-in Wink
Report GoldCupWinner August 24, 2013 8:40 AM BST
Going to go with Blue Surf in the conditions.
Report Stevie Gerrard August 24, 2013 10:24 AM BST
No Heretic is out
Report Stevie Gerrard August 24, 2013 10:25 AM BST
and tropical beat figgis
Report Figgis August 24, 2013 10:56 AM BST
Oh right, wasn't a big bet for me anyway, no bet then.
Report RozelKid August 24, 2013 11:59 AM BST
backed saptapadi at 40s 3 days ago, im bound to now get a ridiculous rule 4 even though you cant still get 33s.

Just hoping Saptapadi can emulate Moyenne Corniches win in this race in 2011.

Still think the price is far too big at 33/1 for, and 8/1 to place.

fingers crossed
Report kincsem August 24, 2013 2:08 PM BST
I am not betting on this.
These I do not like:
Sheikhzayedroad; Opinion; Bishop Roko; Satapadi; Hanoverian Baron.
Report harry callaghan August 24, 2013 3:40 PM BST
anyone like caravan horse here...I do
Report Stevie Gerrard August 24, 2013 4:02 PM BST
wd souldancer, and bad luck saddo thought he had it
Report saddo August 24, 2013 4:07 PM BST
WD, souldancer, laid off Genzy at 1.7 but only for steak back Sad.
Report kincsem August 24, 2013 4:33 PM BST
I am not betting on this.
These I do not like:
Sheikhzayedroad; Opinion; Bishop Roko; Satapadi; Hanoverian Baron.


How did I do it? Cool
Sheikhzayedroad (9th); Opinion (10th); Bishop Roko (13th); Satapadi (8th); Hanoverian Baron (12th).
Report Sandown August 24, 2013 8:13 PM BST
but only for steak back

Rump? Sirloin?
Report unclepuncle August 25, 2013 8:36 PM BST
unclepuncle
19 Aug 13 11:39

I really fancied Genzy at a big price (33/1+) after his run behind Bishop Roko and was gutted they chose to run him on Saturday at Newbury - ran pretty well too and would have been a player in the Ebor.


A disappointed Ian Williams suggested his runner-up had hit the front too soon and targetted a trip to France for the five-year-old.

He said: "You would have thought he was the winner a furlong out but he didn't find ads much in front as he might have done. He might just have felt last weekend's race in his legs
.

So Ian Williams throws away the chance of winning a £155k first prize by running him a week before in a race where a 4th place won him £3.5k.
What a fu*king plonker.Cry
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